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高盛上调2025年油价预期:供应担忧取代衰退风险,布伦特原油看涨至66美元
智通财经网· 2025-07-15 01:32
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the second half of the year, shifting focus from recession concerns to potential supply disruptions and declining oil inventories in OECD countries [1] - The bank increased its Brent crude price forecast for the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and WTI price forecast by $6 to $63 per barrel [1] - Long-term price support is reflected in the unchanged forecasts for 2026, with Brent at $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel, despite a larger supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to cancel 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts by September, including a final increase of 550,000 barrels per day [2] - The bank's optimistic long-term outlook is based on factors such as declining investments, no new non-OPEC projects after 2026, and anticipated demand growth over the next decade [2] - Oil futures prices fell due to President Trump's plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine, which did not include direct measures against Russian energy exports [2] Group 3 - Trump's threats to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico could negatively impact energy demand [3] - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude down $1.15 to $69.21 per barrel and WTI down $1.47 to $66.98 per barrel [3] - Natural gas futures for August delivery rose by 4.6% to $3.466 per million British thermal units due to forecasts of hotter weather and increased flows to LNG export terminals [3]