Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The spot supply - demand tight - balance state is expected to continue, providing some support to prices. Due to the weak cost and strong spot, non - integrated plants turned from loss to profit last week, and the profitability of integrated plants expanded. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to oscillate strongly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7116 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the 3 - month contract closing price was 7179 yuan/ton, down 4485 yuan; the trading volume was 9176; the position of the top 20 long orders was not provided with a change value; the net long position of the top 20 was - 40314 hands, down 2964 hands; the position of the top 20 short orders was 424949 hands, up 12140 hands; the total position of active contracts was 241444 hands, down 1284 hands; the number of warehouse receipts was 116 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7080 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 1280 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 900 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in Northeast China was 6925 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 7265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in North China was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 7185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 746 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton, up 8.5 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was - 13 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 776 US dollars/ton; the market price in South China was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 5455 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in North China was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 70.92%, up 0.69%; the national styrene inventory was 162340 tons, down 9420 tons; the total inventory in East China's main ports was 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 46.72%, up 3.08%; ABS was 69.8%, down 0.1%; PS was 58.9%, down 1.5%; UPR was 39%, up 3%; and butadiene - styrene rubber was 81.68%, up 1.16% [2] Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene plant output was 35.57 tons, up 0.99% month - on - month; the plant capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, up 0.69% month - on - month; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% to 25.97 tons; as of January 8th, the styrene plant inventory was 16.23 tons, down 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the East China port inventory was 10.06 tons, down 23.96% from last week; the South China port inventory was 1.9 tons, down 7.77% from last week; as of January 13th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 375.48 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 754.45 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand drivers for PE are not significant. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Pay attention to the support around 6640 and the resistance around 6890 on the daily K - line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6550 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6766 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; and the 9 - month contract was 6802 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 554,956 lots, up 54,133 lots; the open interest was 477,388 lots, down 13,392 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 216, up 15 [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 436,415 lots, down 4,705 lots; the short position was 481,212 lots, down 15,961 lots; the net long position was - 44,797 lots, up 11,256 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6795.22 yuan/ton, up 101.74 yuan; in East China, it was 6844.42 yuan/ton, up 88.14 yuan [2] - The basis was 29.22, up 72.74 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 59.32 US dollars/barrel, up 0.75 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 558 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 711 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.96%, up 0.55 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 29.5%, down 0.67 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 37.89%, down 1.06 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.27%, up 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.35%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.09%, up 0.68 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it was 16.09%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's polyethylene production totaled 686,800 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points [2] - From January 2nd to 8th, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.1% week - on - week. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week [2] - As of January 7th, the inventory of PE producers was 395,400 tons, up 6.66% from the previous week; as of January 2nd, the social inventory of PE was 484,800 tons, up 2.04% from the previous week [2] - From January 3rd to 9th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.56% to 6920 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 159 yuan/ton to - 472 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.50% to 6397 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 97 yuan/ton to 34 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the second half of the year, shifting focus from recession concerns to potential supply disruptions and declining oil inventories in OECD countries [1] - The bank increased its Brent crude price forecast for the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and WTI price forecast by $6 to $63 per barrel [1] - Long-term price support is reflected in the unchanged forecasts for 2026, with Brent at $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel, despite a larger supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to cancel 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts by September, including a final increase of 550,000 barrels per day [2] - The bank's optimistic long-term outlook is based on factors such as declining investments, no new non-OPEC projects after 2026, and anticipated demand growth over the next decade [2] - Oil futures prices fell due to President Trump's plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine, which did not include direct measures against Russian energy exports [2] Group 3 - Trump's threats to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico could negatively impact energy demand [3] - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude down $1.15 to $69.21 per barrel and WTI down $1.47 to $66.98 per barrel [3] - Natural gas futures for August delivery rose by 4.6% to $3.466 per million British thermal units due to forecasts of hotter weather and increased flows to LNG export terminals [3]