集运指数欧线期货
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航运日报:下半月实际揽货价格逐步报出,运价中枢或能再度小幅抬升-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating upward [7] - Arbitrage: None at present [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month are gradually being reported, and the freight rate center may rise slightly again [1] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. Shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates at a relatively high level for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [5] - The reduction of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of November 6, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 69,438.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 47,681.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1601.00, 1178.00, 1414.20, 1484.00, 1140.00, and 1848.20 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes of different shipping companies show price increases in the second half of November and December. For example, HPL's 11 - month second - half - month shipping schedule quote increased from 1185/1935 in the first half of November to 1935/3135, and the December first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 1935/3135 [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 31 was 1344 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on November 3 was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and in December, it was 322,900 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 1.008 million TEU) and 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 236,320 TEU) were delivered [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the Israeli army to divide the area near the Israeli - Egyptian border into a closed military zone and adjust the rules of engagement [2] - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will also suspend the implementation of its 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will also suspend its counter - measures against the US for one year [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The reduction of the 10% fentanyl tariff is helpful for the recovery of Sino - US trade, which will drive the demand on the US route to pick up and support the European route prices to some extent [3] - The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for the next - year long - term agreement negotiation [4]
集运指数欧线期货连续主力合约日内涨4%,现报1945.00元/吨
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-05 05:39
Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures have experienced a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 4% to a current price of 1945.00 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The European shipping index futures have shown a notable upward trend, indicating potential positive market sentiment [1]
航运日报:MSC、HPL、CMA11月下半月涨价函发布,关注马士基11月下半月报价情况-20251105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month futures contract for shipping has a strong price increase expectation, and the valuation keeps rising. Shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract trading will focus on the rhythm of price increase expectations and actual implementation of price increase letters. The price of the second half of December may reach around 3000 dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 - 2200 points. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of flights expectation [4][5] - The decline of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, driving the demand recovery of the US - bound routes, and providing some support for the European route prices [3] - The strategy for futures trading is that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of November 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 69023.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 37617.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1593.70, 1190.00, 1411.00, 1485.00, 1135.00, and 1909.90 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1267.15 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November 2025, the average weekly capacity of China - European base ports is 286,000 TEU, and the capacities of Week 45/46/47/48/49 are 310,700/273,000/296,500/270,000/299,900 TEU respectively. In December, the average weekly capacity is 322,900 TEU, and the capacities of Week 50/51/52/53 are 336,400/299,400/335,600/320,400 TEU respectively. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU. 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.008 million TEU; 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 236,320 TEU [6] 4. Supply Chain - Not provided with specific summarized information in the content 5. Demand and European Economy - Not provided with specific summarized information in the content
航运日报:关注马士基11月下半月报价情况-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the second half of November [1] - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, and the 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of flights [4][5] - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by 10% is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, driving the recovery of demand on the US route, and providing some support for European route prices [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Prices - As of November 3, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 66,706.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 26,649.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1592.20, 1184.40, 1400.80, 1483.50, 1139.30, and 1851.70 respectively [5] II. Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [5] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 45, 46, 47, 48, and 49 were 310,700, 273,000, 296,500, 270,000, and 299,900 TEU respectively. In December, the average weekly capacity was 322,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 were 336,400, 299,400, 335,600, and 320,400 TEU respectively. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.008 million TEU were delivered, and 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 236,320 TEU were delivered [6] IV. Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content
航运日报:10月合约完成交割,关注马士基WEEK46周报价-20251028
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 10 - month contract has completed delivery, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK46 quotation. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with shipowners expected to adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be oscillatingly strong, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [1][5][6][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 27, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1571.60, EC2604 contract is 1178.80, EC2606 contract is 1387.10, EC2608 contract is 1480.30, EC2510 contract is 1130.90, and EC2512 contract is 1775.00. The total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 61,327.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 37,591.00 lots. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is 1161.63 points [4][6] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances are provided. For example, Gemini Cooperation: Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK45 quote is 1420/2370; HPL - SPOT's first - half of November price is 1335/2135, and the second - half of November shipping schedule quote is 1735/2835. The actual landing prices in the first half of November have been gradually revised down [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the average weekly capacity shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs (with expected conversion to blank sailings). In December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][7] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: On October 27, local time, the Israeli military chief stated that the war against Hamas would not end until all Israeli hostages were returned. China's counter - measure against the US USTR port surcharge has relatively little impact on the European line [2][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content
马士基11月新增空班,11月上半月价格有所修正
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the additional empty sailings in November may promote the better implementation of the price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7] - China's counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge have relatively little impact on the European line [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 22, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1582.90, EC2604 contract is 1171.40, EC2606 contract is 1353.30, EC2608 contract is 1474.80, EC2510 contract is 1136.60, and EC2512 contract is 1788.30 [7] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes show price changes of different shipping companies from Shanghai to Rotterdam in October and November. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 45 quote is 1410/2350; HPL's price in the second half of October is 1185/1935, and in the first half of November is 1535/2535, etc. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] - The SCFIS on October 20, 2025, slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The SCFIS on October 13 was 1031.6, and on October 20 was 1140.38 [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 5 empty sailings and 5 TBNs (expected to turn into empty sailings later), and in December, there are 5 TBNs [3] - As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 963,800 TEU; 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 218,840 TEU [8] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: On October 22, 2025, the Israeli parliament passed a bill in a preliminary vote to extend Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank, which was strongly condemned by Hamas [2] - China will implement counter - measures against US USTR port surcharges next week, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related ships. The number of US - owned, US - flagged, and US - built ships is limited, and the impact on the European line is relatively small [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is affected by factors such as ship delays, the intersection of low - price and high - price ships, and price opacity, leading to large differences in the market's prediction of the final delivery settlement price [5] - The 12 - month contract trading rhythm is mainly about trading price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters. The additional empty sailings in November reflect the shipping companies' willingness to support prices [6]
航运日报:马士基11月第一周报价出炉,近期关注是否有船司11月下半月涨价函发出-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The counter - measure taken by China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European routes [4]. - The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations, and the 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5]. - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7]. - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase letters. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1410/2350, and HPL has price increase letters for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On October 21, local time, Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence officials met with Hamas representatives in Doha to discuss the Gaza situation and the implementation of the cease - fire agreement, but more details were not disclosed [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October is 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations. The final SCFIS index on the 27th is estimated to be higher than 1140.38 points, and the delivery settlement price of the 10 - month contract may be higher than 1110 points. The market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate high. The trading process will involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [6]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. If the shipping companies' price - holding period is extended, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract price [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [9]. 3.5 Ship Delivery - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU [8].
马士基WEEK44周报价开出,期货合约交易限额调整今日生-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clearer. Attention should be paid to the actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The final delivery and settlement price is expected to be around 1130 - 1140 [5][6]. - For the December contract, since it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The trading rhythm involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation of price - increase letters [6]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [7]. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upward. There is no arbitrage strategy at present [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of October 14, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,064.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 69,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1464.40, 1150.00, 1318.80, 1450.00, 1136.20, and 1674.10 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price - increase letters. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK43 quote is 1095/1830, and WEEK44 is 1080/1800. HPL plans to increase the price to 1200/2000 after October 15 and has different price quotes for different periods in November [1]. - Some shipping companies have adjusted their prices in the second half of October. For example, OOCL in the OA alliance lowered its price to 1850 US dollars/FEU, YML in the PA alliance to 1700 US dollars/FEU, and HPL in the Gemini alliance to 1935 US dollars/FEU [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - From the remaining three weeks of October to December, the average weekly capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity is 276,100 TEU, in November it is 302,800 TEU, and in December it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.704 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU [8]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed sanctions on Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its 5 US - related subsidiaries. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided in the given text about this part, only some related figure references are given.
航运日报:巴以和谈消息扰动远月,马士基发布11月份涨价函-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has an impact on the shipping market. Hamas' statement about a cease - fire agreement in Gaza war and potential prisoner exchanges affects market sentiment. The 10 - month contract's valuation is becoming clearer, with uncertainty in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the overall strategy is to go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends and price increase announcements. For example, HPL and Maersk have issued price increase letters, and the prices of various routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam have shown an upward trend to varying degrees [1][2]. - **Geopolitical End**: Hamas said it had reached an agreement to end the Gaza war, ensure Israel's withdrawal, and exchange hostages and prisoners [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports varies by month. In October, the remaining three - week average capacity is 291,100 TEU, in November it is 304,000 TEU, and in December it is 292,500 TEU. There are also empty sailings and TBNs in November and December [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The valuation of the October contract is gradually clear. The current freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. If the price increases by $500/FEU in the last week, the final delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final delivery settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4]. - **December Contract**: The price increase letter for the November contract is expected to be launched soon. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, mainly the actual implementation of price increases in November. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The current weak demand in the US line may affect the European line if ships are transferred. The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract is to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [5]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the 10 - month contract and expect the 12 - month contract to be oscillating strongly. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [8]. 4. Data Information - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of October 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 67,360 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 78,064 lots. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on September 26 is $971/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 6 is 1046.50 points [7]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: As of October 6, 2025, 206 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.6494 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 964,000 TEU; 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 194,840 TEU [7].
10合约聚焦节后下半月实际揽货价格,特朗普公布加沙停火
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:44
Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].