Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Technology Hardware Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Date**: August 18, 2025 - **Analysts Involved**: Sharon Shih, Howard Kao, Duan Liu, Yang Liu, Eddy Wang, CFA Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The industry view is rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating expectations of performance in line with the broader market benchmark [2][46]. - **Hon Hai (Foxconn)**: - Price target set at NT$250, with a current rating of "Overweight" [5]. - Monthly shipment data shows significant growth, with August 2025 shipments reaching 3,000 units, representing a 69% supply share [8]. - Revenue projections indicate a steady increase across product segments, with a notable rise in cloud and networking revenues [9]. - **FII (Foxconn Industrial Internet)**: - Price target set at Rmb52.50, with a strong revenue guidance for Q3 2025, expecting over 15% YoY growth in Telecom & Networking Equipment and over 100% YoY growth in Cloud Equipment [10][11]. - Cloud server revenue is projected to contribute over 75% of total server revenue, indicating a strong market position [10]. Additional Important Information - **Shipment Estimates**: - Hon Hai's GB200/300 rack output for 2025 has been raised by approximately 4,000 to a total of 34,000 units [14]. - The notebook build estimate for Q3 2025 has been increased by 6% to 33.6 million units, reflecting a slight quarter-over-quarter increase [24]. - **Valuation Methodology**: - Hon Hai's valuation is based on a residual income model with a cost of equity of 8.5%, a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [25]. - FII's valuation is derived from a multi-stage residual income model, with a medium-term growth rate of 16% and a terminal growth rate of 5% [26]. - **Risks**: - Upside risks include better-than-expected iPhone sell-through and faster progress in AI server business [27]. - Downside risks involve geopolitical developments and lower-than-expected demand in 5G and data centers [27]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly for key players like Hon Hai and FII, with significant growth projections and strategic insights into market dynamics. The analysts emphasized the importance of monitoring shipment data and revenue contributions from emerging technologies such as cloud computing and AI.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales revenue for Huahong Semiconductor reached $566 million, an increase of 18.3% year-over-year and 4.6% quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by increased wafer shipments [4][7] - Gross margin stood at 10.9%, up 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by improved capacity utilization [4][8] - Net loss for the period was $32.8 million, compared to $41.7 million in Q2 2024 and $52.2 million in Q1 2025 [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $8 million, a 19.2% increase year-over-year and 112.1% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from embedded and volatile memory was $141.2 million, a 2.9% increase year-over-year, driven by increased demand for MCU products [10] - Revenue from logic and power management IC was $161.2 million, a 59.3% increase year-over-year, mainly driven by increased demand for other power management IC products [11] - Revenue from power devices increased, with the company maintaining a large capacity in both 8-inch and 12-inch fabs [49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from China was $469.7 million, contributing 83% of total revenue, an increase of 21.8% year-over-year [10] - Revenue from North America was $53 million, a 13.2% increase year-over-year, while revenue from Europe decreased by 14.2% [10] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating it could reach a $1 trillion industry within a few years [68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing core competencies in products, processes, R&D, and supply chain management, with a strategy to diversify product portfolios [5] - Huahong Semiconductor aims to solidify its leading position in the semiconductor industry through strategic initiatives and partnerships [6] - The company plans to continue expanding capacity while improving efficiency and targeting technology areas with growth potential [42] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of demand, citing robust internal factors such as capacity utilization and cost reduction efforts [18][20] - The company anticipates a gross margin in the range of 10% to 12% for Q3 2025, with visibility for Q4 being less certain [21] - Management noted that the semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more stability in capacity increases, which is expected to positively impact the market [32] Other Important Information - Net cash flow generated from operating activities was $169.6 million, a 75.1% increase year-over-year [12] - Capital expenditures were $407.7 million, with significant investments in manufacturing capacity [12] - The company is actively collaborating with European firms for their China for China strategy, while also exploring local partnerships [97] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of Demand in the Second Half - Management indicated that robust demand is expected to continue, driven by internal factors such as capacity utilization and cost reduction efforts [18][20] Question: Pricing Adjustments and ASP Outlook - Management expects small price movements in the second half, primarily focused on 12-inch and IC platforms, with adjustments reflecting in Q3 and Q4 [22][25] Question: Regional Demand Differentiation - Management acknowledged strong domestic demand while noting weaker overseas demand, emphasizing the complexity of end markets [36][39] Question: Semiconductor Cycle and Gross Margin Outlook - Management noted that the semiconductor industry has become less cyclical, with growth driven by various end markets, and expects gross margins to remain stable [66][73] Question: AI Server Market Opportunities - Management highlighted the significant growth potential in the AI server market, particularly for power management chips [90][92] Question: Local Foundry Collaborations - Management discussed ongoing collaborations with European companies and expressed openness to partnerships with other foundries, emphasizing a focus on existing strategic partners [97][99]

Group 1 - TrendForce estimates that Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025 [1] - The overall server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI server development [1] - The new Blackwell platform products, including GB200 Rack and HGX B200, have started volume production since Q2 [1] Group 2 - The updated B300 and GB300 series are currently in the sample verification stage [1] - As GB200/GB300 Rack shipments expand in 2025, the adoption rate of liquid cooling solutions for high-end AI chips continues to rise [1]

Group 1 - The PCBA sector has fast growth and low valuation, with small-cap "hidden gems" that have deep layouts in AIPC and AI server fields, covering clients such as Huawei and BYD, and already having overseas factory layouts [1] - The "swarm tactics" have generated demand for anti-drone solutions, with analysts optimistic about the rapid growth of the anti-drone market, which combines security and infrastructure attributes, potentially becoming a new paradigm for low-altitude security driven by multimodal intelligent integration [1]

②"蜂群战术"催生反无人机需求，分析师看好看好兼具安全与基建属性的反无人机市场将 快速增长，有望成为多模态智能融合驱动的低空安防新范式。 ①增速快、估值低的p c b领域小市值"遗珠"，公司在AIPC和AI服务器领域均有深入布 局，客户覆盖华为、比亚迪等，已有海外工厂布局； ...

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with companies like Shengshi Technology (+10.02%), Guoguang Electric (+10.00%), and Yase Optoelectronics (+9.99%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board experienced a surge, highlighted by Kunlun Wanwei (+20.01%) and Huibo Yuntong (+20.00%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also performed well, with Xidi Micro (+10.76%) and Dekeli (+7.20%) showing strong increases [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Games III (+1.51%) and SW Discrete Devices (+0.91%) [1] Domestic News - Kongming Optics has begun mass production of its self-developed smart glasses, weighing only 40g and featuring Bluetooth connectivity for calls and music playback [1] - Longxin Technology announced that its 3B6600 desktop chip design will be completed in Q3 this year, featuring an 8-core CPU and integrated GPGPU [1] - OmniVision has launched a new 2Gbps SerDes product line, marking its entry into the SerDes market [1] - Xinbang Intelligent plans to acquire a stake in Indichip Micro to strengthen its position in the automotive chip sector [1] Company Announcements - Yingtong Communications announced a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 18.63 million yuan [2] - Chipeng Micro declared a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share, amounting to 51.62 million yuan [2] - Shensi Electronics provided a guarantee of 30 million yuan for its subsidiary, Shensi Medical, through a contract with Qilu Bank [2] - Debang Technology announced a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, totaling 35.11 million yuan [2] Industry Trends - The HBM technology development is driven by AI server demand, with major manufacturers pushing HBM4 product progress, expected to have a premium exceeding 30% due to increased manufacturing complexity [3] - SK Hynix has developed a UFS 4.1 solution using the highest layer count of 321 layers for 1Tb TLC 4D NAND flash memory, aimed at mobile devices [3] - The global microwave transmission market is expected to continue its growth trend in Q1 2025, driven by demand from emerging markets, particularly in India, the Middle East, and Africa [3] - Toshiba has launched four new 650V SiC MOSFETs, utilizing its latest third-generation technology for industrial applications [3]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Sci-Tech Chip ETF - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF had an intraday turnover of 1.56%, with a transaction volume of 388 million yuan [2] - Over the past year, the average daily transaction volume of the Sci-Tech Chip ETF reached 2.224 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - In the last three months, the Sci-Tech Chip ETF's scale increased by 6.096 billion yuan, achieving significant growth and ranking first in new scale among comparable funds [2] - The ETF's share increased by 36 million shares in the past week, also ranking first in new shares among comparable funds [2] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 64.9 million yuan, indicating continued interest from leveraged funds [2] - The net purchase amount of financing for the ETF this month reached 5.5378 million yuan, with the latest financing balance at 1.407 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - On May 20, Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced that the Xiaomi self-developed 3nm flagship chip, Xiaomi Xuanjie O1, has begun mass production [3] - TrendForce predicts that by 2025, the proportion of purchased Nvidia/AMD chips for AI servers in China will decrease from 63% in 2024 to 42%, while domestic chip supply is expected to rise to 40% due to policy support [3] - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their rise, seizing market share with the support of policies, which is expected to drive explosive growth in China's intelligent computing centers [3] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on four key areas for medium to long-term investment: wafer foundry, computing chip design, domestic equipment and components, and advanced packaging [3] - Investors without stock accounts can access domestic chip investment opportunities through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Inventec with a 12-month price target of NT$45, down from a previous target of NT$50 [7]. Core Insights - Inventec reported Q125 earnings with sales of NT$157.0 billion, reflecting a 21% decrease QoQ but a 20% increase YoY. The sales mix shifted to 49% notebooks and 48% servers, with AI servers constituting 50% of server sales [2][12]. - The company anticipates a 10% QoQ increase in Q225 sales to NT$173.0 billion, driven by strong demand for Blackwell HGX servers, although a stronger NT$ may dampen growth [3]. - Growth expectations for 2025 have been trimmed from 4% YoY to 2% YoY, influenced by flat demand in the second half and tariff impacts [4][19]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the expected EPS is NT$2.57, below the street estimate of NT$2.63, with a price target reduction reflecting a valuation of 16x 2026 EPS [5][27]. - The company's revenue projections show a gradual increase, with expected revenues of NT$663.8 billion in 2025 and NT$726.0 billion in 2026 [6][20]. Market Position and Valuation - Inventec is trading at a premium valuation of 17x/15x 2025-26 P/E, higher than its peers, indicating that the market has largely priced in growth expectations [10][27]. - The company has a solid market share in general servers and AI server motherboards, but may lag behind competitors like HonHai and Quanta in ramping up production [5][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The report indicates that Inventec's cash flows have been affected by cyclical earnings in PCs, but a return to positive free cash flow is projected in the coming years [21]. - A cash dividend of NT$1.70 has been declared, yielding approximately 4% at current levels, reflecting a high payout rate [21].

Core Insights - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a crucial technology for AI servers and is expected to be widely adopted in the autonomous driving market in the future [1] - China's HBM industry is developing, with HBM2 and HBM2E currently in mass production, and HBM3 and HBM3E expected to achieve breakthroughs by 2026E/2027E [1] - SK Hynix is the global leader in the HBM market, holding a 55% market share, followed by Samsung at 41% and Micron at 3% [1] Group 1 - SK Hynix launched the world's first TSV-based HBM product in 2013 and has since introduced several generations of HBM products, including HBM2, HBM2E, and HBM3 [1] - In April 2023, SK Hynix completed functionality verification of a 12-layer HBM3 product (24 GB), and in August 2023, it launched the high-performance 8-layer HBM3E product [1] - The company plans to start mass production of the 12-layer HBM3E product (36 GB) in October 2024 and is developing a 16-layer HBM3E product with a capacity of 48 GB [1] Group 2 - SK Hynix's HBM stacking technology has evolved from TC-NCF and MR-MUF to Advanced MR-MUF, with significant developments in wafer-level packaging (WLP) and TSV technology since around 2000 [2] - The 12-layer HBM3 and HBM3E products utilize Advanced MR-MUF technology, and the upcoming 16-layer HBM3E product will also employ this technology [2] Group 3 - Both Samsung and SK Hynix have established their own HBM supply chains, with Samsung relying on Japanese and Korean equipment suppliers, while SK Hynix partners with HANMI Semiconductor and others [3] - HANMI Semiconductor holds approximately 65% of the global TCBonder market and nearly 90% in the HBM3E TCBonder sector, indicating a strong position in the supply chain [3]

Core Insights - The MLCC supply-demand rhythm is disrupted in the first half of 2025, with increased risks of a "weak peak season" in the second half due to rising caution and wait-and-see attitudes among companies and end markets [1] - OEMs and ODMs have moved North American Chromebook and some consumer laptop orders to the first quarter, leading to unexpectedly weak stocking momentum for the traditional education laptop peak season starting in April [1] - The average forecast order volume for Dell and HP education laptops from MLCC suppliers is expected to decrease by 20% to 25% in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Challenges - The decline in end-market demand and soaring sales costs present two major challenges for MLCC suppliers, including the risk of OEMs reducing orders and potential price reductions [2] - The Japanese yen has become a favored safe-haven currency, appreciating from 150 to 141 yen against the dollar since April, impacting MLCC pricing [2] - Current pricing for mid-capacity and automotive-grade MLCC products is below the levels seen in Q4 2019, indicating a significant market shift [2] Group 2: AI Server Segment - The order and material preparation momentum for AI servers remains robust, with ODMs in Mexico benefiting from the USMCA agreement, allowing for normal shipments [1] - However, future international situation changes could still pose risks to this segment [1] - High-end standard products commonly used in AI servers have seen significant profit declines due to competitive bidding in 2024, leading to low visibility in end-order demand [2]