October 10, 2025 01:41 AM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific GB200 NVL72 Racks in September We provide a monthly and quarterly rack shipment forecast by ODMs for 2025. Within the major GPU AI server ODMs, our order of preference is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta. Key Takeaways Our GB200/300 racks forecast now stands at 28.0k (vs ~27.6k previously): We estimate that 3Q rack shipments reached 8.5k units, rising to 14.3k in 4Q, up from our previous 13.2k estimate ( Exhibit 2 ). We do not see this ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape in the HBM4 market, particularly focusing on NVIDIA's efforts to enhance specifications and supply chain dynamics as it prepares for the launch of the MI450 Helios platform in 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: HBM4 Specifications and Supply Chain - NVIDIA is pushing suppliers of key components for the Vera Rubin server rack to increase product specifications, specifically targeting a Speed per Pin of 10Gbps for HBM4 [2]. - HBM4 is identified as a critical component for AI servers, with transmission speed and bandwidth being key areas for improvement [2]. - Samsung plans to upgrade its HBM4 base die process node to FinFET 4nm by the end of 2024, aiming for a transmission speed of 10Gbps, which is expected to surpass competitors SK hynix and Micron in production output [2]. Group 2: Supplier Dynamics and Market Forecast - NVIDIA's strategy includes evaluating supply capacity; if supply is insufficient or if new specifications lead to excessive energy consumption or costs, NVIDIA may reconsider upgrades or categorize products based on different supplier levels [3]. - TrendForce forecasts that SK hynix will remain the largest supplier of HBM4 in 2026, with Samsung and Micron's market share dependent on the performance of their subsequent product samples [3].

Core Insights - The NAND Flash industry is experiencing significant revenue growth, with the top five brands achieving a combined revenue increase of over 20% in Q2, reaching $14.67 billion [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Samsung's revenue increased by 23.8% in Q2, reaching $5.2 billion, driven by strong demand for Enterprise SSDs from AI servers, resulting in a slight market share increase to 32.9% [1] - SK Group, including SK hynix and Solidigm, reported a record revenue of nearly $3.34 billion in Q2, a 52.5% increase, with market share rising from 16.6% to 21.1% [2] - Kioxia's revenue reached approximately $2.14 billion in Q2, an 11.4% increase, supported by strong AI server demand and normalization of inventory levels for PC and smartphone clients [2] - Micron's revenue grew by 3.7% in Q2 to $2.1 billion, despite a decline in average selling prices, with significant growth in shipment volumes [2] - SanDisk's revenue increased by 12.2% in Q2 to $1.9 billion, benefiting from channel price recovery and inventory replenishment in Client SSDs and retail products [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The NAND Flash industry is expected to face a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) in Q2 2025, but production cuts by manufacturers are helping to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [1] - Demand is anticipated to stabilize in Q3 due to the diminishing effects of subsidy policies in China and reduced stocking by manufacturers, although ASPs may see a slight recovery [1]

Core Insights - The NAND Flash industry experienced a slight decline in average selling prices (ASP) in Q2 2025, but a reduction in production by manufacturers helped alleviate supply-demand imbalances, leading to a significant increase in overall shipments. The top five brands collectively saw a revenue increase of 22%, reaching $14.67 billion [2][5]. Revenue and Market Share Analysis - Samsung led the market with a revenue of $5.2 billion in Q2 2025, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 23.8%, capturing a market share of 32.9% [3][6]. - SK Group, which includes SK hynix and Solidigm, achieved a record revenue of $3.34 billion, up 52.5% from the previous quarter, increasing its market share to 21.1% [3][6]. - Kioxia reported revenue of $2.14 billion, an 11.4% increase, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and a normalization of inventory levels for PCs and smartphones [3][6]. - Micron's revenue reached $2.1 billion, a modest increase of 3.7%, with a slight decline in market share to 13.3%, although it achieved record market shares in Client SSD and Data Center SSD segments [3][7]. - SanDisk's revenue grew by 12.2% to $1.9 billion, supported by a recovery in channel prices and inventory replenishment, but it lagged behind competitors in the Enterprise SSD market [3][7]. Future Outlook - In Q3 2025, demand is expected to stabilize as the effects of subsidy policies in China wane and inventory buildup by manufacturers decreases. Although ASPs may see a slight recovery, overall revenue growth in the NAND Flash industry is anticipated to slow down [5].

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Technology Hardware Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Date**: August 18, 2025 - **Analysts Involved**: Sharon Shih, Howard Kao, Duan Liu, Yang Liu, Eddy Wang, CFA Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The industry view is rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating expectations of performance in line with the broader market benchmark [2][46]. - **Hon Hai (Foxconn)**: - Price target set at NT$250, with a current rating of "Overweight" [5]. - Monthly shipment data shows significant growth, with August 2025 shipments reaching 3,000 units, representing a 69% supply share [8]. - Revenue projections indicate a steady increase across product segments, with a notable rise in cloud and networking revenues [9]. - **FII (Foxconn Industrial Internet)**: - Price target set at Rmb52.50, with a strong revenue guidance for Q3 2025, expecting over 15% YoY growth in Telecom & Networking Equipment and over 100% YoY growth in Cloud Equipment [10][11]. - Cloud server revenue is projected to contribute over 75% of total server revenue, indicating a strong market position [10]. Additional Important Information - **Shipment Estimates**: - Hon Hai's GB200/300 rack output for 2025 has been raised by approximately 4,000 to a total of 34,000 units [14]. - The notebook build estimate for Q3 2025 has been increased by 6% to 33.6 million units, reflecting a slight quarter-over-quarter increase [24]. - **Valuation Methodology**: - Hon Hai's valuation is based on a residual income model with a cost of equity of 8.5%, a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [25]. - FII's valuation is derived from a multi-stage residual income model, with a medium-term growth rate of 16% and a terminal growth rate of 5% [26]. - **Risks**: - Upside risks include better-than-expected iPhone sell-through and faster progress in AI server business [27]. - Downside risks involve geopolitical developments and lower-than-expected demand in 5G and data centers [27]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly for key players like Hon Hai and FII, with significant growth projections and strategic insights into market dynamics. The analysts emphasized the importance of monitoring shipment data and revenue contributions from emerging technologies such as cloud computing and AI.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales revenue for Huahong Semiconductor reached $566 million, an increase of 18.3% year-over-year and 4.6% quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by increased wafer shipments [4][7] - Gross margin stood at 10.9%, up 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by improved capacity utilization [4][8] - Net loss for the period was $32.8 million, compared to $41.7 million in Q2 2024 and $52.2 million in Q1 2025 [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $8 million, a 19.2% increase year-over-year and 112.1% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from embedded and volatile memory was $141.2 million, a 2.9% increase year-over-year, driven by increased demand for MCU products [10] - Revenue from logic and power management IC was $161.2 million, a 59.3% increase year-over-year, mainly driven by increased demand for other power management IC products [11] - Revenue from power devices increased, with the company maintaining a large capacity in both 8-inch and 12-inch fabs [49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from China was $469.7 million, contributing 83% of total revenue, an increase of 21.8% year-over-year [10] - Revenue from North America was $53 million, a 13.2% increase year-over-year, while revenue from Europe decreased by 14.2% [10] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating it could reach a $1 trillion industry within a few years [68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing core competencies in products, processes, R&D, and supply chain management, with a strategy to diversify product portfolios [5] - Huahong Semiconductor aims to solidify its leading position in the semiconductor industry through strategic initiatives and partnerships [6] - The company plans to continue expanding capacity while improving efficiency and targeting technology areas with growth potential [42] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of demand, citing robust internal factors such as capacity utilization and cost reduction efforts [18][20] - The company anticipates a gross margin in the range of 10% to 12% for Q3 2025, with visibility for Q4 being less certain [21] - Management noted that the semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more stability in capacity increases, which is expected to positively impact the market [32] Other Important Information - Net cash flow generated from operating activities was $169.6 million, a 75.1% increase year-over-year [12] - Capital expenditures were $407.7 million, with significant investments in manufacturing capacity [12] - The company is actively collaborating with European firms for their China for China strategy, while also exploring local partnerships [97] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of Demand in the Second Half - Management indicated that robust demand is expected to continue, driven by internal factors such as capacity utilization and cost reduction efforts [18][20] Question: Pricing Adjustments and ASP Outlook - Management expects small price movements in the second half, primarily focused on 12-inch and IC platforms, with adjustments reflecting in Q3 and Q4 [22][25] Question: Regional Demand Differentiation - Management acknowledged strong domestic demand while noting weaker overseas demand, emphasizing the complexity of end markets [36][39] Question: Semiconductor Cycle and Gross Margin Outlook - Management noted that the semiconductor industry has become less cyclical, with growth driven by various end markets, and expects gross margins to remain stable [66][73] Question: AI Server Market Opportunities - Management highlighted the significant growth potential in the AI server market, particularly for power management chips [90][92] Question: Local Foundry Collaborations - Management discussed ongoing collaborations with European companies and expressed openness to partnerships with other foundries, emphasizing a focus on existing strategic partners [97][99]

Group 1 - TrendForce estimates that Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025 [1] - The overall server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI server development [1] - The new Blackwell platform products, including GB200 Rack and HGX B200, have started volume production since Q2 [1] Group 2 - The updated B300 and GB300 series are currently in the sample verification stage [1] - As GB200/GB300 Rack shipments expand in 2025, the adoption rate of liquid cooling solutions for high-end AI chips continues to rise [1]

Group 1 - The PCBA sector has fast growth and low valuation, with small-cap "hidden gems" that have deep layouts in AIPC and AI server fields, covering clients such as Huawei and BYD, and already having overseas factory layouts [1] - The "swarm tactics" have generated demand for anti-drone solutions, with analysts optimistic about the rapid growth of the anti-drone market, which combines security and infrastructure attributes, potentially becoming a new paradigm for low-altitude security driven by multimodal intelligent integration [1]

②"蜂群战术"催生反无人机需求，分析师看好看好兼具安全与基建属性的反无人机市场将 快速增长，有望成为多模态智能融合驱动的低空安防新范式。 ①增速快、估值低的p c b领域小市值"遗珠"，公司在AIPC和AI服务器领域均有深入布 局，客户覆盖华为、比亚迪等，已有海外工厂布局； ...

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with companies like Shengshi Technology (+10.02%), Guoguang Electric (+10.00%), and Yase Optoelectronics (+9.99%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board experienced a surge, highlighted by Kunlun Wanwei (+20.01%) and Huibo Yuntong (+20.00%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board also performed well, with Xidi Micro (+10.76%) and Dekeli (+7.20%) showing strong increases [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Games III (+1.51%) and SW Discrete Devices (+0.91%) [1] Domestic News - Kongming Optics has begun mass production of its self-developed smart glasses, weighing only 40g and featuring Bluetooth connectivity for calls and music playback [1] - Longxin Technology announced that its 3B6600 desktop chip design will be completed in Q3 this year, featuring an 8-core CPU and integrated GPGPU [1] - OmniVision has launched a new 2Gbps SerDes product line, marking its entry into the SerDes market [1] - Xinbang Intelligent plans to acquire a stake in Indichip Micro to strengthen its position in the automotive chip sector [1] Company Announcements - Yingtong Communications announced a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 18.63 million yuan [2] - Chipeng Micro declared a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share, amounting to 51.62 million yuan [2] - Shensi Electronics provided a guarantee of 30 million yuan for its subsidiary, Shensi Medical, through a contract with Qilu Bank [2] - Debang Technology announced a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, totaling 35.11 million yuan [2] Industry Trends - The HBM technology development is driven by AI server demand, with major manufacturers pushing HBM4 product progress, expected to have a premium exceeding 30% due to increased manufacturing complexity [3] - SK Hynix has developed a UFS 4.1 solution using the highest layer count of 321 layers for 1Tb TLC 4D NAND flash memory, aimed at mobile devices [3] - The global microwave transmission market is expected to continue its growth trend in Q1 2025, driven by demand from emerging markets, particularly in India, the Middle East, and Africa [3] - Toshiba has launched four new 650V SiC MOSFETs, utilizing its latest third-generation technology for industrial applications [3]