半导体设备、材料行业研究框架 20250823 摘要 2025 年半导体板块整体表现突出，但设备和材料板块估值提升有限， 性价比凸显，值得关注。 半导体设备需求受下游客户扩产和国产替代双重驱动，国产设备在自主 可控逻辑下迎来额外增量。 半导体产业链各环节盈利能力存在差异，芯片制造环节盈利能力最强， 其次是晶圆制造，再次是半导体设备，上游零部件公司盈利能力通常不 如中游设备公司。 先进制程推动半导体设备市场持续增长，28 纳米到 7 纳米制程的资本支 出（CAPEX）几乎翻倍，且需求量呈指数级增长。 国内半导体市场在先进制程方面发展前景广阔，政策支持力度大，未来 几年有望迎来由先进制成建设带来的增量机会。 中美脱钩加速，企业必须依赖国产设备，各晶圆厂需投入资源解决自身 难题，实现长期共振与进步。 材料赛道具有长坡厚雪的特点，随着新晶圆产线不断上线及老产线升级 改造，对材料需求将持续增加，目前投资材料领域是一个非常好的选择。 Q&A 半导体设备和材料行业的现状及未来趋势如何？ 半导体设备和材料行业近年来备受关注，尤其是在 2021 年或更早的 2019 年 开始，市场对其研究逐渐增多。这个领域属于半导体产业链的中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing significant growth driven by domestic demand and geopolitical factors, positioning it as a critical area in the global competition for technology supremacy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor equipment index in the A-share market has recently reached new highs, with leading companies like North Huachuang and Shengmei Shanghai breaking through previous resistance levels [2]. - In 2025, China's semiconductor equipment investment is projected to grow by 53.4%, contrasting with a 9.8% decline in total investment in the semiconductor industry [4][6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Key companies are showing strong financial results: - Zhongwei Company reported a 43.9% year-on-year revenue increase and a net profit growth of 31.6% to 41.3% [5]. - Shengmei Shanghai's revenue grew by 35.8% with a net profit increase of 57% [5]. - Tuo Jing Technology's revenue is expected to rise by 52% to 58%, with net profit growth of 101% to 108% [6]. Group 3: Policy and Government Support - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III, with a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, focuses on semiconductor equipment and materials, providing substantial financial backing [7]. - Local governments in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing are implementing supportive policies for the semiconductor industry, enhancing funding stability for equipment manufacturers [8][10][11]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Domestic equipment manufacturers are making significant strides in critical areas: - Zhongwei's 5nm CCP etching equipment has been validated by leading domestic storage manufacturers [13]. - Tuo Jing's 14nm SACVD equipment has successfully replaced similar products from Applied Materials at SMIC [14]. - Shengmei's single-wafer megasonic cleaning equipment is exclusively used in TSMC's CoWoS production line [15]. - The first domestically produced commercial electron beam lithography machine, "Xizhi," has announced application testing, signaling a major industry milestone [16]. Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has escalated export controls on semiconductor equipment, which has accelerated the shift towards domestic suppliers in China, creating unprecedented opportunities for local equipment manufacturers [17][18]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - The semiconductor equipment industry can be segmented into front-end (wafer manufacturing) and back-end (packaging and testing) equipment, with front-end equipment accounting for over 80% of the value [19]. - Investment strategies include focusing on leading equipment manufacturers for stable returns, identifying champions in niche markets for growth, and targeting undervalued back-end equipment firms for potential gains [20][21][22].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in companies such as Fuda Co., Ltd., Jinguan Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Zhongding Sealing [2][4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that reducers are the core components of humanoid robot joints, ensuring high precision and stability in motion control [2][9] - The humanoid robot precision reducer market is expected to grow steadily, with domestic manufacturers enhancing their supply capabilities [2][19] - Different types of reducers (harmonic, RV, planetary, and cycloidal) have distinct characteristics and applications, with cycloidal reducers emerging as a promising option for high-load joints [2][88] Summary by Sections 1. Reducers as Core Components - Reducers are essential for reducing speed and increasing torque in humanoid robots, connecting the power source to the execution structure [9][14] - The market for reducers in China is projected to reach approximately 144.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth rate of 4% to 5% over the past five years [19] 2. Demand Differentiation and Application of Cycloidal Reducers - The report identifies a growing application space for cycloidal reducers, which offer significant torque increase relative to cost and size [2][88] - Tesla's Optimus Gen2 utilizes a combination of planetary and harmonic reducers, highlighting the trend towards hybrid solutions in humanoid robots [76][80] 3. Prominent Companies and Technological Collaboration - Fuda Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the precision reducer market, with significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by the demand for new energy vehicles [99] - Jinguan Technology is expanding its footprint in the reducer market through joint ventures and product diversification [103] - Shuanghuan Transmission's subsidiary, Huandong Technology, is a key player in the RV reducer segment, contributing to the company's overall growth [108] - Zhongding Sealing is investing heavily in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on the production of harmonic reducers and joint assemblies [114] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the reducer market, including Fuda Co., Ltd., Jinguan Technology, Shuanghuan Transmission, and Zhongding Sealing, while also monitoring emerging players like Haoneng Co., Ltd. and Landai Technology [2][4]

Group 1 - The three major stock indices rose on July 18, driven by news related to KiMIK2 and mid-year performance reports, with technology stocks showing localized activity [1] - The non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal industries saw significant gains, while the $科创半导体ETF (588170) opened higher but faced heavy selling pressure during the day [1] - Among the index constituents, companies like拓荆科技, 神工股份, and 中微公司 experienced notable price increases [1] Group 2 - 中微公司 announced an expected net profit attributable to the parent company of 680 million to 730 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.61% to 41.28% [1] - The company's revenue for the reporting period is approximately 4.961 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.88%, with significant growth in the sales of etching equipment and LPCVD film equipment [1] - The company has significantly increased the shipment volume of high-end products for critical etching processes in advanced logic and memory device manufacturing, achieving large-scale production in various key etching processes [1] Group 3 - 首创证券 believes that there is still room for improvement in the domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate and recommends focusing on the semiconductor equipment sector [1] - With policy support, the domestic semiconductor industry chain is expected to accelerate industry concentration and competitiveness reconstruction through horizontal category expansion and vertical technological complementarity [1] - Leading companies are likely to strengthen their positions due to their financial scale advantages and dominance in the industry chain [1] Group 4 - The 科创半导体ETF (588170) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's semiconductor materials and equipment theme index, encompassing hard technology companies in the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors [2] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is a crucial area for domestic substitution, characterized by low localization rates and high potential for domestic replacement [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of semiconductor demand driven by the artificial intelligence revolution, waves of technology restructuring and mergers, and advancements in lithography technology [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index decreased by 0.6% as of July 17, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The leading stocks included He Lin Wei Na with a rise of 3.08%, Hu Silicon Industry up by 1.12%, and Fu Chuang Precision increasing by 0.39%, while Zhongke Fei Ce fell by 1.98%, Anji Technology down by 1.92%, and Huahai Qingke decreased by 1.34% [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) dropped by 0.69%, with the latest price at 1.01 yuan, but showed a cumulative increase of 5.86% over the past month, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - In July, the top five companies attracting the most attention from fund companies included Zhongji Xuchuang, Lexin Technology, Taotao Automotive, Xiangyu Medical, and Juguang Technology, with 71, 49, 41, 40, and 38 fund companies respectively conducting research on them [1] - The focus of fund institutions in July has been on four major industry sectors: pharmaceutical biology, machinery equipment, automotive, and semiconductors [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, encompassing hard-tech companies in the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors, which are crucial for domestic substitution [2] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry has a low domestic substitution rate and a high ceiling for domestic replacement, benefiting from the expansion of semiconductor demand driven by the AI revolution and advancements in lithography technology [2] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF experienced continuous net inflows over four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 16.21 million yuan, totaling 24.38 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 6.10 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share merger and acquisition (M&A) market is experiencing a recovery driven by supportive policies and industrial upgrades, with significant increases in project numbers and completion rates in 2025 compared to 2024 [1][3][4]. Group 1: M&A Market Activity - In the first half of 2025, the number of M&A projects submitted for review reached 86.67% of the total for 2024, with a 100% approval rate for M&A restructuring [1][3]. - The number of disclosed asset restructuring plans by listed companies exceeded 600, which is 1.4 times that of the same period last year, with major asset restructurings around 90, 3.3 times higher than last year [3][4]. - The total transaction amount for completed major asset restructurings surpassed 200 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 times compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Policy Support - Recent policies, including the revised "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures," have created a favorable environment for companies to enhance their industrial chain resilience through M&A [5][6]. - The new measures introduced simplified review processes, adjusted regulatory requirements for share issuance in asset purchases, and established mechanisms for staggered payments for shares [6]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Focus - The semiconductor sector has emerged as a hot spot for M&A activity, with over 20 disclosed restructuring plans since the beginning of 2025 [7][8]. - Notable M&A cases include major players like Huada Jiutian acquiring shares in Chip and Semiconductor, and Haiguang Information merging with Zhongke Shuguang [7][8]. - The M&A trend in the semiconductor industry is characterized by horizontal and vertical integrations, aimed at acquiring key technologies and enhancing market competitiveness [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share merger and acquisition (M&A) market is experiencing a recovery driven by supportive policies and industrial upgrades, with significant increases in project numbers and completion rates in 2025 compared to previous years [1][3][4]. Group 1: M&A Market Activity - The number of M&A projects submitted for review in the first half of 2025 reached 86.67% of the total for 2024, with a 100% approval rate for M&A restructuring [1][3]. - From January to mid-May 2025, over 600 asset restructuring plans were disclosed by listed companies, 1.4 times that of the same period last year, with major asset restructurings increasing to approximately 90, a 3.3 times increase [3]. - The total transaction amount for completed major asset restructurings exceeded 200 billion, an 11.6 times increase compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Policy Support - Recent policies, including the revised "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures," have created a favorable environment for companies to enhance their industrial chain resilience through M&A [6][7]. - The new measures introduced simplified review processes, adjusted regulatory requirements for share issuance in asset purchases, and established a mechanism for staggered payments for restructuring shares [7][8]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Focus - The semiconductor sector has emerged as a hot spot for M&A activity, with over 20 disclosed restructuring plans since the beginning of 2025 [10]. - Notable M&A cases include major players like Huada Jiutian and Haiguang Information, indicating a trend of both horizontal and vertical integration within the semiconductor industry [10][11]. - The ongoing M&A wave in the semiconductor industry is seen as a strategy for companies to quickly acquire key technologies and enhance market competitiveness, particularly in the context of domestic substitution efforts [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the banking sector leading gains, and there is a strong demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) driven by the rapid development of AI [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed a narrow range of fluctuations on July 1, with the banking sector again leading the gains [1] - The semiconductor ETF (588170) rose nearly 1% in early trading, with key stocks like Naiko Equipment and Zhongchuan Special Gas showing significant gains [1] Group 2: HBM Industry Insights - The demand for HBM is strong due to the rapid development of AI, with the market currently dominated by three overseas giants and almost no domestic production [1] - The manufacturing process of HBM is identified as a core barrier, emphasizing the importance of developing the entire industry chain [1] - The upstream of the HBM industry includes semiconductor raw materials and equipment suppliers, while the downstream applications are in AI, data centers, and high-performance computing [1] Group 3: Domestic HBM Production - The production of domestic HBM is deemed essential, with current production still in its early stages, presenting opportunities for upstream equipment and materials expansion [2] - Recommended companies for HBM equipment include Jingzhida, Huahai Qingke, and Chipsource, while material companies include Dinglong Co. and Yake Technology [2] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is a key area for domestic substitution, benefiting from low domestic production rates and high potential for replacement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall expectation for the A-share market in the second half of 2025 is a continuation of the current oscillation and rapid rotation of hot topics, with no systemic large-scale rally anticipated [2][3] Market Assessment - Multiple institutions predict that the market will likely maintain a fluctuating pattern with significant thematic rotation [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the recovery of corporate profit growth is a key factor limiting the potential for a broad market rally [3] - The focus on corporate earnings performance is expected to contribute positively to market dynamics, with fundamental factors likely to outperform historical averages [3][4] Investment Strategy - A consensus strategy among professional institutions is to adopt a balanced allocation to manage risks while selectively focusing on structural opportunities for returns [5] - The importance of monitoring macroeconomic highlights is emphasized, with adjustments to investment strategies based on key areas such as investment, consumption, and exports [4][5] Key Directions for Investment - Institutions identify four main investment directions: 1. Deepening investments in the technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military technology [6] 2. Capitalizing on the new consumption wave, including experiential and AI-enabled consumption models [6] 3. Focusing on stable dividend assets in a weak recovery environment [6] 4. Following national policy directions, particularly in sectors like power generation and coal chemical industries [6] Short-term Outlook - Some institutions maintain an optimistic short-term outlook, suggesting a "dual-line layout" strategy that includes focusing on sectors with improving industry conditions and stable earnings [7] - The A500 index is highlighted as a key investment vehicle for capturing growth in emerging sectors [7] Long-term Perspective - Long-term confidence in the market is supported by signs of fundamental improvement and potential capital inflows [8][9] - The low valuation of the Chinese stock market compared to global peers is expected to attract both traditional and new foreign investments [9]

Summary of the Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market in China, with a specific update on **May 2025** import data indicating resilience despite a year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) decline of **2%** [2][22]. Key Insights - **May 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached **USD 2,829 million**, reflecting a month-over-month (MoM) decline of **16%** and a YoY decline of **1%**. The YTD average import is **USD 2,773 million**, slightly lower than the previous year's average of **USD 3,159 million** [2][22]. - **Import Segmentation**: The largest segments for imports are **Deposition (26%)**, **Dry Etch (21%)**, and **Lithography (12%)**. Japan remains the largest trading partner, accounting for **25%** of imports, while Guangdong and Shanghai are the biggest domestic buyers, with shares of **37%** and **22%**, respectively [3][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: Expected to see a **12% QoQ** increase in China revenue, with a projected **-10% YoY** decline for FY26/3. China is anticipated to contribute **42%** of total revenues [4][62][63]. - **Kokusai**: Forecasted to experience a **-32% QoQ** decline in China revenue, with an expected contribution of **37%** to total revenues [4][66][70]. - **Screen**: Anticipated to decline by **-27% QoQ** in China revenue, with a contribution of **30%** to total revenues, below the company's guidance of **45%** [5][73][79]. - **Advantest**: Expected to see a significant decline of **-60% QoQ** in China revenue, with exposure dropping to **8%** from **19%** in the previous quarter [5][82]. Market Dynamics - The **lithography segment** is experiencing a sharp decline, with imports expected to drop to **EUR 0.79 billion** in Q2, down **66% YoY** and **49%** sequentially. This is attributed to record low import levels in April and May [9]. - The overall WFE market in China is becoming increasingly important, with global vendors capturing approximately **84%** of the market share in 2024 [18]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 550.00**, benefiting from a broad product portfolio and diverse client base [11]. - **AMEC**: Also rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 300.00**, recognized for its technology and market position [12]. - **Piotech**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 280.00**, noted for its innovation in advanced packaging [13]. - **AMAT**: Positive outlook with a target price of **$210.00**, driven by secular WFE growth and capital return [16]. - **ASML**: Rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **EUR 700.00**, reflecting a cautious stance on growth relative to consensus [17]. Additional Observations - The **import data** indicates a shift in sourcing, with increased imports from **Singapore and Malaysia** as U.S. direct imports decline [34][40]. - The **market for cleaning equipment** remains competitive, with potential upside from panel-level packaging [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the WFE market in China, company-specific forecasts, and broader market dynamics.