January 29, 2026 03:30 PM GMT Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd | Asia Pacific M Update Margin Gains Amid Memory Supercycle Reaction to earnings Unchanged In-line Meaningful revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Stay OW. The strong 4Q results are partially in the price, as the stock is up 46% YTD vs. MSCI China IT up 24%. We expect continued margin improvement into 1H26 to drive EPS upward revisions amid severe memory supply constr ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology, Inc. is positioned to benefit from a sustainable AI-driven memory boom, with significant profit growth expected due to memory bottlenecks in AI systems [1][5]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - William Blair initiated coverage on Micron with an "Outperform" rating, forecasting a fair value of approximately $450 per share [2]. - The company is expected to experience a multiyear memory upcycle, leading to increased pricing and margins, particularly through high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products [3][5]. - Micron is projected to grow its HBM revenue by 164% in fiscal 2026 and 40% in fiscal 2027, becoming the second-largest player in the HBM market [4]. Group 2: Financial Projections - The anticipated growth in HBM sales is expected to drive a 275% increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the next two years, with adjusted EPS forecasted to reach $41.77 in fiscal 2027, up from $8.29 in fiscal 2025 [4][5]. - The company is expected to grow non-GAAP EPS by over 275% in the same timeframe, benefiting from higher average selling prices and improved margins [5].

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the old memory semiconductor market, specifically DDR4, DDR3, NOR, and SLC/MLC NAND segments - The supply/demand gap is expected to widen further, indicating a positive outlook for old memory vendors [1][2] Key Points Market Performance - Old memory stocks have shown strong year-to-date performance in January 2026, with notable increases: - Winbond +26% - Nanya +28% - Macronix +54% - PSMC +28% - Gigadevice +18% - Comparatively, TAIEX and SHCOMP indices increased by 6.5% and 4.5% respectively [2] Pricing Trends - DDR4 pricing is expected to rise by 50% in Q1 2026, continuing into Q2, driven by aggressive buying from tier 1 enterprise customers [3] - A severe shortage in high-density DDR3 products is anticipated due to capacity allocation shifts from DDR3 to DDR4 [3] - NOR Flash pricing is projected to increase by 20-30% in Q1 2026, with further upside expected in Q2 and visibility extending into H2 2026 [4] Vendor Insights - Winbond is highlighted as the top pick among old memory vendors, with expectations of ROE expansion lifting overall multiples across the sector [2] - Other vendors like Macronix and Powerchip are expected to catch up due to favorable market conditions [2] - PSMC's P5 fab is noted for its capacity to support HBM4e and hybrid bonding, which could benefit old memory vendors [5] Price Target Adjustments - Price targets for several companies have been raised: - Winbond from NT$88.00 to NT$130.00 - Nanya from NT$41.00 to NT$56.00 - Macronix from NT$48.00 to NT$72.50 [6] Earnings Estimates - Winbond's EPS estimates have been revised: - 2025: NT$1.04 (down 10%) - 2026: NT$10.68 (up 81%) - 2027: NT$14.12 (up 65%) [27] - The revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 have also been raised due to stronger pricing expectations for specialty DRAM and NOR flash [27] Risk and Reward Analysis - The stock is expected to trade at a P/B multiple of 3.9x 2026e BVPS, reflecting strong DRAM pricing upside and sustainable NOR pricing hikes [31] - Bull case value is set at NT$156.00, while bear case value is at NT$54.00 [32] Additional Insights - The ongoing cannibalization of old memory capacity is noted, with DDR4 driving up pricing and affecting DDR3 [9] - The shift in market share for PC NOR from Mainland China to Taiwan is anticipated, providing more opportunities for Taiwanese vendors [37] Conclusion - The old memory semiconductor market is poised for continued growth into 2026, with significant price increases expected across various segments. Winbond remains a top pick, supported by strong performance and favorable market dynamics.

Economic Indicators - The December consumer price index (CPI) report showed core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, both below pre-market estimates of 0.3% and 2.8% respectively [1] - The monthly headline CPI increased by 0.3% in December, resulting in an annual rate of 2.7%, which was in line with economists' forecasts [1][2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The steady inflation and a stable jobs market are likely to lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during their first meeting of the year on January 28-29 [2] - Fed funds futures are currently pricing in two quarter-point cuts starting in June 2024 [2] Earnings Season - The earnings season commenced with JPMorgan Chase reporting better-than-expected results for the December quarter, although the stock did not show significant movement [3] - Delta Airlines experienced a 4% decline in premarket trading due to mixed earnings results [3][4] Sector Performance - Defense stocks, particularly L3Harris Technologies, surged 13% after announcing plans for an IPO of its missile solutions business in partnership with the U.S. Defense Department [5] - Chip manufacturers Intel and AMD saw stock increases following an upgrade to overweight by KeyBanc, citing a potential upside of over 30% due to a memory supercycle and strong data center demand [5] - Health sciences company Revvity reported better-than-expected preliminary results, contributing to its stock strength early in the session [5]

Group 1 - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) is considered one of the best stocks for the next decade, with multiple analysts raising their price targets significantly [1][2][3][4] - UBS raised its price target on Lam Research to $200 from $175, maintaining a Buy rating [1] - B. Riley increased its price target to $195 from $180, emphasizing Lam Research's strong position to benefit from the surge in memory WFE spending due to its exposure to the memory sector and leadership in etch technology [2] - Mizuho analyst raised the price target to $200 from $170, expressing a bullish outlook for the WFE market and anticipating growth through 2026 [3] - BofA also raised its price target to $195 from $165, viewing the current period as part of an 8-to-10-year transition to AI-optimized hardware [4] Group 2 - Lam Research designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in integrated circuit fabrication across various regions including the US, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe [5]

Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) shares soared on Thursday after the company reported first-quarter financial results and guidance. Analysts see further upside and are raising their price targets.Micron Technology stock is charging ahead with explosive momentum. What’s behind MU gains?The Micron Analysts: JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating on Micron and raised the price target from $220 to $350.Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price targe ...

It's that time again — investors are prepping for this week's earnings reports which include homebuilders, several apparel companies and a big tech company. MU stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. Monday, Dec. 15The week begins with the following companies reporting after Monday's closing bell:Navan, Inc. (NASDAQ:NAVN)Ark Restaurants Corp. (NASDAQ:ARKR)Champions Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSBR)Read Next: Rivian’s AI Turn VS. Lucid’s Uber Alliance: Robotaxi Race For Second-Place   Tuesday, Dec. ...

Group 1: Nvidia and H200 GPUs - The approval of Nvidia's H200 GPUs for China is a significant development, with the US taking a larger cut of 25% compared to the previous 15% for H20s, indicating a balancing act between national security and trade profits [8][10] - There is uncertainty regarding the actual demand for H200s in China, but it is believed that major players like Alibaba and Tencent will seek these products due to their superior performance compared to domestic alternatives [12][15] - The performance of the H200 significantly outstrips that of domestic Chinese chips, with estimates suggesting it has six times the power of the H20, making it an attractive option for Chinese companies [17][18] Group 2: Broadcom and Market Position - Broadcom is positioned as a strong investment opportunity, potentially more rewarding than Nvidia in the long term, due to its scale and exposure to both ASIC and AI GPU markets [28][30] - The company is expected to report positive earnings, with guidance above consensus, and is benefiting from a growing customer base among tier one hyperscalers [38][39] - The memory shortage is impacting the industry, with significant price increases in DRAM, which could benefit companies like Micron and Apple, as they navigate the challenges posed by competitors [46][51] Group 3: AI Market Dynamics - The AI market is evolving, with Nvidia currently holding a market share estimated between 70% to 90%, but it is anticipated that they will eventually lose some market share as ASIC technology matures [40][42] - The conversation around Nvidia's market share is seen as premature, as the ASIC segment is still developing, and Nvidia's re-entry into the Chinese market could provide significant tailwinds [43][44] - The memory shortage is described as an AI-led phenomenon, with companies like Micron focusing on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet demand, which is expected to drive their performance in the coming years [48][49]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it provides a mixed outlook for various countries in Asia, indicating potential outperformers and underperformers based on economic conditions and growth forecasts [5][10][11]. Core Insights - The strong momentum of tech exports, particularly driven by AI demand and higher memory prices, is expected to sustain through 2026, while non-tech exports are likely to remain soft due to US tariffs and spillovers from China [10][21]. - The report anticipates a North-South monetary policy divide, with North Asian countries likely to maintain an extended hold on rates, while South/Southeast Asian countries may see further rate cuts [12][30]. - The overall GDP growth for Asia is projected at 3.6% year-on-year in 2026, slightly down from 3.7% in 2025, with specific countries like Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and India expected to outperform [10][11][18]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The AI supercycle is driving a regional split, with tech exports expected to thrive while non-tech exports face challenges [10][19]. - Domestic demand shows a mixed picture, influenced by supportive policies and political risks [24][28]. Growth Projections - Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and India are projected to outperform, while China, Thailand, and the Philippines may disappoint due to weaker domestic demand [11][28]. - Specific growth forecasts include Korea at 2.3%, Malaysia at 5.2%, and India at 6.9% for 2026, all above consensus estimates [18][32]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is expected to remain benign, with an average CPI inflation of 1.9% year-on-year in 2026, up slightly from 1.7% in 2025 [29]. - The monetary policy easing cycle is largely complete in North Asia, while South/Southeast Asia may see further cuts [30][31]. FX and Rates Strategy - The report outlines a strategy for Asia FX and rates into Q1 2026, highlighting potential trades such as long EUR/INR and short SGD/JPY [14][15]. - The USD is expected to remain stable, but risks of a weaker USD are noted due to potential triggers [15][30].

Core Insights - The surge in investment for data center infrastructure to support artificial intelligence has led to a memory shortage, driving prices up and positively impacting Micron Technology's upcoming quarterly earnings report [1] - Dell has reported that rising memory prices are increasing its operational costs and creating challenges due to memory shortages [1] - Goldman Sachs has a bullish outlook on Micron, predicting results that exceed Wall Street's consensus estimates ahead of its quarterly earnings call on December 17 [4] Industry Trends - The demand for high-performance computing has intensified since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, leading to a significant increase in AI research and development [5] - The current pace of AI research and development is comparable to the early days of the Internet, with cloud service providers investing hundreds of billions of dollars in next-generation servers equipped with AI-optimized chips [6] - The computational requirements for training AI models are rapidly increasing, with Nvidia estimating that reasoning models could require over 100 times more compute power than previous models [7]