目前DDR4报价有效期已缩短至不到一个月，代表价格可能在数周内再次上调。 DDR3涨势更强，第四季有望出现高双位数涨幅。 针对NOR Flash，维持第四季上涨5-10%预期。 随着AirPods等物联网产品与服务器需求潜在增长，NOR供应缺口将从低个位数扩大至中个位数。 闪德资讯获悉，据摩根士丹利报告指出，随着主流存储市场转强，DDR4和DDR3在第四季度将有更大涨价空间，传统型 NAND与NOR存储价格稳定迹象逐渐增强，并有望延续至2026年。 DRAM部分，存储供应商已停止向企业客户提供报价，意味价格仍有上行空间。 并将美光上调至"优于大盘"，目前参与内存上行周期仍不晚。 至于NAND，闪迪已与力积电接洽，讨论未来可能的产能支持，但认为合作机率偏低。 预期未来三季，DDR4供应短缺比例将达10-15%，后段制程瓶颈可能进一步加剧这一情况，因此部分DDR4合约价在第四 季可能翻倍。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 预期到2026年，AirPods将占全球NOR需求5–10%，因每副AirPods需使用三颗高密度NOR Flash芯片，意味NOR涨价趋势可 望延续至2026年。 ...

October 6, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductor | Asia Pacific Old Memory Could Last for a Longer Time Along with stronger mainstream memory, we see stronger pricing upside for DDR4&3 in 4Q and more signs of pricing sustainability for legacy NAND and NOR going into 2026. It is time to look at peak valuations. We revise up price targets and reiterate our Top Pick Winbond. Key Takeaways Never too late on mainstream memory: Our US analyst Joe Moore upgraded Micron to OW (link), stating it's not too la ...

在主流芯片高歌猛进的同时，旧款存储芯片市场正在开启一个值得关注的盈利窗口。 报告首先指出了主流存储市场的紧张局势，这是理解旧款芯片行情的关键背景。 DRAM方面 ：主流DRAM供应商已停止向企业客户提供第四季度的报价。在行业内，这通常是供应短缺、价格即将大幅上涨的强烈信号。 NAND方面 ：行业巨头SanDisk已开始接触力积电（PSMC），探讨未来潜在的产能支持。尽管考虑到SanDisk与铠侠（Kioxia）的合资协议以及技 术差异，双方合作的可能性较低，但这一举动本身就印证了整个NAND行业正面临供应不足的困境。 旧款DRAM价格飙升，涨势或超预期 主流市场的短缺效应，正迅速传导至旧款DDR4和DDR3市场，其价格涨幅甚至可能超过主流产品。 旧款存储芯片迎来"第二春"，繁荣期超预期。 摩根士丹利在2025年10月6日发布的最新研报中表示，旧款存储芯片（Legacy Memory）的繁荣期不仅比市场预期的更强劲，且可能持续更久，直至 2026年。主流存储芯片的供应紧张正传导至旧款产品，导致DDR4、DDR3及NOR Flash等芯片价格出现超预期上涨。 这一趋势为特定半导体公司带来了显著的投资机会。在主流芯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and shifting demand towards high-end applications, particularly Server DRAM and HBM, while traditional PC and mobile applications face reduced capacity allocation [1][3]. DRAM Price Trends - Overall Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 8-13% in Q4, with HBM blended prices rising by 13-18% [1][2]. - PC DRAM prices are anticipated to rise slightly due to limited supply as major OEMs reduce procurement volumes [3]. - Server DRAM demand is expected to grow significantly, with U.S. CSPs planning to start procurement earlier to secure supply, leading to price increases [3]. Mobile and Graphics DRAM - Mobile DRAM prices, particularly LPDDR4X, are projected to increase by over 10% in Q4 due to supply constraints and inventory buildup by manufacturers [4]. - Graphics DRAM demand remains strong, with GDDR7 prices expected to rise more than in the previous quarter due to anticipated supply shortages [4]. Consumer DRAM - Consumer DDR4 supply is limited, and despite previous price increases, demand has softened, leading to a forecasted moderation in price growth for Q4 [5]. - DDR3 prices are expected to continue rising due to preemptive stocking and supply constraints [5].

Summary of GigaDevice Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: GigaDevice (603986.SS) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specializing in DRAM products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Specialty DRAM Price Trends**: GigaDevice is experiencing an uptrend in specialty DRAM prices, particularly in DDR4, which has increased at a slower pace compared to competitors, indicating potential for further price improvements and market share gains [1][2][4] 2. **Customized DRAM Potential**: The customized DRAM segment is in its early stages but is expected to ramp up significantly by 2H26 to early 2027, driven by applications in edge AI, including consumer devices and automotive sectors [3][4] 3. **Earnings Revisions**: Net profit estimates for 2026E-27E have been revised upwards by 3%-4% due to better-than-expected DRAM pricing outlook. The 12-month target price (TP) has been raised to Rmb198 from Rmb173, based on a target P/E of 50x for 2026E [4][15] 4. **Gross Margin Expectations**: GigaDevice's blended DRAM gross margin is projected to reach 35% in 3Q25E and 40% in 4Q25E, up from 18% in 2Q25, as the company capitalizes on the exit of incumbents from the specialty market [2][4] 5. **Revenue Growth**: Revenue projections for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are Rmb9,168 million, Rmb11,912 million, and Rmb14,442 million respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory [16] 6. **Market Positioning**: GigaDevice is positioned to gain market share as competitors exit the specialty DRAM market, which could lead to a narrowing of the price gap with incumbents [2][14] Additional Important Information - **Investment Thesis**: GigaDevice is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by its expansion into specialty DRAM, with stable contributions from its NOR flash and MCU businesses [14] - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of DRAM production, geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, and weaker-than-expected growth in NOR and MCU segments [15] - **Valuation**: The current stock valuation is considered attractive as it trades below historical P/E levels during similar market cycles [14] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding GigaDevice's market position, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives within the semiconductor industry.

华邦电第三季季涨60％，第四季再涨二成，华邦电第四季合约价相较第二季低谷，涨幅高达80～ 90％，涨势一发不可收拾，法人估，两厂皆有望提早转亏为盈。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ： 内容来自半导体行业观察综合 。 下半年电子业传统旺季来临，记忆体市场再次掀起涨价风潮，继第三季报价走扬后，第四季仍可望季 增20％～50％涨幅。台韩记忆体制造大厂纷纷控产，使得市场供给更加吃紧。 市场传出，南亚科第三季合约价季对季大涨70％，第四季季涨50％。 *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。 END 市场法人分析，AI浪潮带动运算与储存需求持续飙升，全球记忆体供需结构已彻底改观，传统景气循 环模式正在被改写。 特别是DDR4产品，随着减产与停产进程推进，供不应求格局几乎确立。法人预期，南亚科与华邦电 将成为最大受惠者。 随着全球记忆体产业加速迈向DDR5与高频宽记忆体（HBM）世代，DDR4规格逐步迈入停产（End of Life, EOL）。 法人估算，至2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Dongxin Co., Ltd. is experiencing continuous improvement in revenue and gross profit, driven by recovering market demand and price increases in SLC NAND Flash and NOR Flash products [1] - Dongxin's second-quarter performance growth is primarily attributed to the contribution from SLC NAND products, benefiting from strong demand in the domestic operator bidding market [1] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the automotive sector, having passed EC-Q100 verification for automotive-grade products, which are now in mass production across multiple vehicle models [1] Group 2 - Dongxin is focusing on the development of Wi-Fi 7 wireless communication chips, with expected revenue contributions starting in 2026 [1] - The company is experiencing a strong demand for smart wearable devices, particularly in the TWS earphones, feature phones, and smart wristbands/watches segments [1] - Dongxin's R&D personnel and expenses are expected to continue growing, although the year-on-year growth rate is anticipated to slow down [1] Group 3 - Dongxin is a joint venture partner of Lishuan Technology, with governance participation, while procurement, sales, and R&D are managed by Lishuan's original management team [1] - The 7G100 series products are based on Dongxin's self-developed TrueGPU architecture, showcasing commercial potential and market competitiveness [1] - Lishuan Technology is undergoing continuous financing efforts, including both debt and equity financing [1]

Group 1: Company Insights - Dongxing Fund recently conducted research on two listed companies, including Three Squirrels and Dongxin Co., focusing on their strategic shifts and financial performance [1] - Three Squirrels is transitioning towards high-end, quality, and differentiated products, achieving a revenue of 5.478 billion yuan and a net profit of 138 million yuan, with over 20% growth in Q2 [1] - Dongxin Co. reported continuous improvement in revenue and gross profit, driven by the recovery in SLC NAND Flash demand and price increases, with significant contributions from SLC NAND products [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The food and retail industry is undergoing changes, making it difficult to generate value through homogeneous competition, prompting companies to innovate [1] - The semiconductor market is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly for SLC NAND Flash and NOR Flash products, with price adjustments following leading manufacturers [1] - The smart wearable device market is strong, with Dongxin Co. focusing on TWS headphones, feature phones, and smart wristbands, while also advancing Wi-Fi 7 wireless communication chip development [1] Group 3: Fund Performance - Dongxing Fund, established in 2020, has an asset management scale of 39.205 billion yuan, ranking 92 out of 210 in total public funds [2] - The fund's best-performing product in the past year is Dongxing Future Value Mixed A, with a net value of 1.52 and a growth of 83.82% over the last year [2]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Beijing Junzheng Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. is focusing on upgrading storage products, particularly DDR4 and LPDDR4, to penetrate markets like automotive, especially in electric vehicles [2][3]. - The company has shifted from a 25nm process to 18nm and 16nm, enabling the introduction of 8G LPDDR4 and higher capacity products [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue Projections and Product Strategy - Currently, DDR3 accounts for nearly 50% of the company's revenue, but with new product introductions, DDR4 and LPDDR4 are expected to significantly increase their sales share in the coming years [3]. - The gross margin for storage products has historically fluctuated around 30%, with new products expected to enhance revenue and sales volume rather than significantly increase margins [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Growth Opportunities - The automotive market is showing signs of recovery, with a gradual increase in revenue from this sector, particularly in China, while Europe is experiencing a decline [4][5]. - The niche DRAM market is estimated to be around $10 billion, with half of that being high-reliability applications, including automotive and industrial sectors [5]. Group 4: Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The company is collaborating with Tier 1 manufacturers and main control chip suppliers to ensure high reliability and long-term supply capabilities for automotive applications [6]. - New product developments include LPDDR5 for automotive applications, with plans to expand into AI-related products and high-performance computing solutions [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Expansion - The company is entering new markets such as printers and robotic vacuum cleaners, leveraging low power consumption and cost-effectiveness to gain traction [6]. - There is a strategic focus on enhancing computing power in camera applications, with plans to increase processing capabilities from 1T to 4T, and exploring opportunities in edge computing and AI [7].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 659 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.46% [1] - The semiconductor storage business generated 608 million yuan in revenue, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 40.77%, accounting for 92.16% of total revenue, thus driving the company's growth [1] - The company is focusing on two main business segments: "semiconductor storage + smart terminals" and "new energy + automotive" [1] Semiconductor Storage Business - The semiconductor storage segment experienced explosive growth due to the accelerated penetration of AI and the domestic innovation industry [1] - Key products such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4X maintained stable output, with LPDDR4X successfully entering the domestic operator supply chain, leading to significant monthly shipment increases [1] - The company achieved breakthroughs in high-end products, with large-capacity eMMC products being stably delivered and LPDDR5 products entering trial production after certification on mainstream SoC platforms [1] Domestic Market Positioning - The company is deepening collaborations with international manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix while also strengthening partnerships with domestic firms such as Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies [1] - Some storage products have adopted Yangtze Memory's NAND solutions and Changxin's DRAM solutions, accelerating the replacement of international brands in niche markets [1] New Energy and Automotive Business - The company’s lithium battery project in Chenzhou has made significant progress, with a total investment of approximately 150.24 million yuan and substantial mineral resources identified [2] - The innovative "magnetic separation + flotation + re-selection" process has enabled efficient recovery of lithium concentrate and high-purity quartz, significantly reducing overall costs [2] - The carbonated lithium business achieved revenue of 9.04 million yuan through dual-channel procurement and financial hedging strategies [2] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive segment generated revenue of 32.45 million yuan in the first half of the year, continuing its growth trend [3] - Core products like electric retarder and hydraulic retarder have solidified partnerships with major clients, contributing over 60% of sales, while also achieving breakthroughs in new energy and overseas markets [3] - The company has completed trials for the EC13/V3.0 controller and is advancing the localization of the EC16 controller, improving signal transmission efficiency by 30% [3] Financial Health and Future Outlook - The company improved its operational quality, with the expense ratio decreasing from 5.53% to 3.55% year-on-year, and the asset-liability ratio dropping to 21.54%, a decrease of 5.42 percentage points from the beginning of the period [3] - The company plans to focus on high-end storage, new energy vehicles, and comprehensive utilization of lithium resources, leveraging technological, resource, and policy advantages for sustained growth [3]