美联储哈玛克：可能的关税措施或对通胀产生一次性冲击，但目前难以判断具体影响。 ...

美联储戴利：其他可能的关税措施对通胀的影响可能不会那么大。 ...

据德国《明镜周刊》：为应对美国总统特朗普的关税措施，奥迪可能在美国建立新的工厂。 ...

据英国金融时报：欧盟正在推动与美国达成英国式的贸易协议，该协议将在下个月的最后期限之后保留 部分关税，进一步推迟对美国的报复性关税措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve would improve if there were no tariff measures in place [1] Group 1 - The current tariff measures are impacting the inflation outlook negatively [1] - Powell suggests that removing these tariffs could lead to a more favorable inflation scenario [1] - The statement indicates a direct correlation between trade policies and inflation expectations [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：与2024年9月我们降息时相比，今年的通胀预期更高，主要由于关税措施导致的通胀 压力上升。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：关税措施需要一些时间才能传导到消费者。 ...

Market Overview - The New York stock market indices opened higher on June 16 due to easing concerns over the Israel-Iran conflict, with all three major indices closing up [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 317.30 points to close at 42,515.09, a gain of 0.75%; the S&P 500 increased by 56.14 points to 6,033.11, up 0.94%; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 294.39 points to 19,701.21, a rise of 1.52% [1] Sector Performance - Among the eleven sectors of the S&P 500, seven saw gains while four declined [1] - The Communication Services and Technology sectors led the gains with increases of 1.53% and 1.52%, respectively, while the Utilities and Healthcare sectors lagged with declines of 0.50% and 0.40% [1] Geopolitical Context - Despite the Israeli attack on the Iranian state television building and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's readiness for a long-term war, reports indicate that Iran is seeking U.S. pressure on Israel for an immediate ceasefire [1] - Iran has expressed willingness to offer more flexibility in nuclear negotiations [1] Oil Market Reaction - International oil prices opened significantly higher on the evening of June 15 but gradually retreated, reflecting a market relief regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [2] - The potential for the conflict to remain in a limited war mode has provided some comfort to the market, although risks of escalation remain high [2] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve reported a manufacturing index of -16 for June, which was worse than the market expectation of -7 and the previous month's -9.2 [3]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：从中期来看，关税措施将同时抑制经济增长和通胀。 ...

KVB plus发现在全球金融市场的舞台上，美联储的每一个决策都如同巨石投入深潭，激起层层涟漪。 近期，随着美联储官员释放出延长维持利率不变的强烈信号，一场关于未来货币政策走向的大讨论在投 资者和经济学家群体中热烈展开。本周，众人的目光都聚焦在美联储主席鲍威尔身上，试图从他的一言 一行中捕捉到关键线索，探寻究竟是哪些因素最终会促使美联储采取行动，以及这一行动将在何时到 来。 再看美国国内经济状况，虽整体呈现出缓慢降温的态势，但基本面依然保持健康。就业市场方面，尽管 就业增长速度有所放缓，但失业率却连续三个月维持稳定。这一现象背后，移民人数的大幅减少导致劳 动力供应下降起到了一定作用。失业率的稳定，在一定程度上为美联储维持现有利率提供了支撑，使其 有更多底气抵御潜在的通胀压力。不过，价格数据却并未显现出明显的通胀风险，5 月份基本通胀率连 续第四个月低于预期，这无疑给市场注入了一剂 "定心丸"，也让投资者对于美联储短期内降息的预期 愈发渺茫。根据期货合约的定价，市场普遍押注美联储最早也要到 9 月份才会考虑降息。 Principal Asset Management 的首席全球策略师 Seema Shah 的观 ...