【环球网报道 记者 赵建东】当地时间6月29日，美国参议院对"大而美"法案进行了宣读及正式辩论。据福克斯新闻报道，美国国会警察当天在现场逮捕一名 扰乱秩序的男子，该男子在议员们辩论特朗普政府推出的"大而美"法案时，从旁听席大喊"你们这些人太差劲了"。 美国共和党人掌控的国会众议院5月22日以一票优势艰难通过"大而美"法案。参议院目前正在审议该法案，并即将进行程序性投票。美国企业家埃隆·马斯克 28日再次发文批评总统特朗普力推的"大而美"税收与支出法案。马斯克在社交媒体上称，美国参议院正在审议的最新法案草案"将摧毁美国数百万个就业岗 位，并对我们国家造成巨大损害"。他痛批法案"极其疯狂且具破坏性"，"给夕阳产业提供施舍，却严重损害未来产业"。马斯克还说："这项法案将债务上限 提高5万亿美元，这是历史上最大的增幅，让美国走上被债务奴役的快车道。" 报道称，根据警方通报，佛罗里达州居民罗杰斯因拒绝服从警方停止扰乱秩序的命令被逮捕。警方称："当晚约19时，我们的执勤警官逮捕一名在参议院旁 听席制造骚乱的男子"，而参议院的议员当时正就"大而美"法案进行辩论。 福克斯新闻称，从现场视频可清晰听到，罗杰斯从旁听席向议员发出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese financial market is experiencing significant volatility, with the stock market and currency both facing sharp declines due to intervention by regulatory authorities and external pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On June 30, the Taiwan Weighted Index fell sharply by 1.44%, closing down over 324.06 points, with a trading volume of approximately 354.2 billion TWD [3][4]. - The index has breached the annual line of 22,263 points, indicating a bearish trend, and exhibited a notable sell-off towards the end of the trading session [3][4]. - Foreign investors sold a net of 4.534 billion TWD in the market, contributing to the downward pressure on the stock index [3]. Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) experienced a significant depreciation, dropping 2.5% to 29.895 against the USD, marking the largest intraday decline since May 2001 [1][4]. - The Taiwanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, buying USD to counteract the TWD's strength, which had been a concern for the local market [1][4]. - The TWD has appreciated over 10% against the USD this year, with a record single-day increase not seen since 1980, leading to speculation and pressure on exports [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Actions and Market Sentiment - Taiwanese authorities have implemented measures to limit foreign speculative investments in reverse ETFs, capping foreign holdings at 30% of the total issuance [4]. - There is a growing concern among analysts regarding the potential impact of U.S. economic policies, such as the "equal tariff" and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, on the Taiwanese market [4][6]. - The foreign short positions in Taiwan stock index futures have reached a historical high of 53,159 contracts, indicating a bearish sentiment among foreign investors [6].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, indicating ongoing export challenges despite temporary easing in US-China trade tensions[3] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, with consumer goods PMI improving by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%[3] Inventory and Production Trends - Finished goods inventory index surged by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, but annualized index fell by 0.1 percentage points to a low of 47.6%[4] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, reflecting a temporary improvement in production driven by consumption and export demand[4] Economic Outlook and Risks - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to subsidies stimulating durable consumption and a second wave of export efforts[4] - Future uncertainties hinge on the domestic real estate market's recovery and the potential impact of the US tax reduction plan on local production and consumption[4] - There is a risk of additional interest rate cuts if the real estate market continues to struggle, with potential for increased subsidies for durable goods[4]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between President Trump and Elon Musk has become strained due to Musk's criticism of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which Musk believes will harm the U.S. economy and job market [1][4]. Group 1: Trump's Perspective - Trump acknowledges that he has not had much communication with Musk but considers him a smart individual who will continue to succeed [3]. - Trump suggests that Musk's frustration may stem from policies related to electric vehicles, indicating a preference for not mandating electric vehicle ownership [3]. Group 2: Musk's Criticism of the Bill - Musk has publicly criticized the "Big and Beautiful" bill, claiming it could destroy millions of jobs and cause significant damage to the country [4]. - The bill includes controversial elements such as substantial tax cuts, renewable energy subsidies, and increased military spending, which could lead to an estimated $3.8 trillion increase in federal debt over the next decade [4]. Group 3: Impact on Tesla - The proposed elimination of tax credits for electric vehicle consumers is seen as a direct threat to Tesla's business, with estimates suggesting a potential annual loss of $1.2 billion for the company if these credits are removed [4]. - Tesla's sales performance has significantly declined this year, highlighting the importance of maintaining tax incentives to sustain market demand [4].

本文字数：807，阅读时长大约2分钟 2025.06. 30 马斯克曾多次批评"大而美"法案。28日，美国参议院审议该法案草案，马斯克在社交媒体上发文 说，这项法案"将摧毁美国数百万个就业岗位，并对我们国家造成巨大损害"。他痛批法案"极其疯狂 且具破坏性"，"给夕阳产业提供施舍，却严重损害未来产业"。 据媒体报道，"大而美"法案内容涉及美国政治"敏感点"，包括大幅度削减税率、新能源补贴和社会 保障支出以及增加军费和边境安全支出。据估算，该法案未来10年将使美国联邦政府的债务增加约 3.8万亿美元。 有美国媒体认为，法案部分条款关乎马斯克切身利益，他对法案的批评也是他与特朗普关系恶化的重 要原因之一。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普29日谈及他与美国企业家埃隆·马斯克的关系，称马斯克"有点沮丧"，他 的近期行为"不当"。此前一天，马斯克再次对特朗普力推的"大而美"税收与支出法案进行了猛烈批 评。 "我和他没有太多交谈" 特朗普29日接受福克斯新闻频道采访。记者问："你和埃隆·马斯克谈过吗？发生了什么事？" "我和他没有太多交谈，但我认为埃隆是个很棒的人，我知道他会一直做得很好。"特朗普回答，"他 是个聪明人。他曾和我 ...

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, promoted by President Trump, is under intense debate in Congress, with Republicans claiming it will save $500 billion while Democrats argue it will increase the federal deficit by $4.45 trillion [3][5] - The bill is seen as a continuation and upgrade of Trump's previous tax cuts, aiming to reduce spending on social welfare while increasing military and border security expenditures [7][12] - The bill has faced significant opposition, with critics labeling it as a "Robin Hood in reverse" that primarily benefits the wealthy at the expense of low-income groups [10][12] Group 1 - The Senate Budget Committee Chairman, Graham, presented a new assessment claiming the bill would save approximately $500 billion under the "current policy baseline" [3] - In contrast, Senate Minority Leader Schumer argued that the bill would actually increase the federal deficit by $4.45 trillion, highlighting a fundamental disagreement in budget valuation methods between the two parties [5] - The ongoing debate reflects deeper issues regarding fiscal discipline and procedural legitimacy in the legislative process [5] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is characterized by significant tax rate cuts, reductions in renewable energy subsidies, and cuts to social security spending, which are politically sensitive topics in the U.S. [7] - The bill passed the House and Senate with narrow margins, indicating potential public discontent and concerns from foreign investors regarding its impact on economic stability [8][10] - The White House's optimistic economic analysis suggests that the bill will offset tax cut costs through economic growth and increased tariff revenues, but independent assessments predict a $3.3 trillion increase in national debt over the next decade [11][12]

美国总统特朗普：（关于大而美法案）我们会通过增长，把一切都补回来，十倍于此，比以往任何时候 都多。 ...

目前，马斯克已将精力投入了企业运营中，但他与特朗普并未走向和解，两人之间的关系可以说是 从"天作之合"变成了"形同陌路" 。 周六当天，参议院将就大而美法案举行首次程序性投票，参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩和他的 团队一直在积极游说，特朗普也在施压共和党人，要求他们支持这项法案。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间周六，马斯克在社交媒体平台上发文称，美国参议院关于大规模税 收与支出法案的最新草案"将摧毁美国数百万个就业岗位，并对美国造成巨大的战略伤害"。 马斯克指出， 这项法案极其疯狂和具有破坏性，它给过去的产业提供了援助，却严重损害了未来的 产业。 马斯克引用了塔兰斯集团的民调结果，"民意调查显示，这项法案对共和党而言是政治自杀行 为。" 据悉，修订后的 法 案 大幅 削 减 了对风 能和 太阳能等清洁能源的补贴，以及针对电动汽车的税 收抵免 ，这对那些希望政府能继续支持环保项目的公司来说，是个不利的消息。 政策咨询公司Climate Vision的创始人兼总裁Adrian Deveny评论称，新法案对清洁能源行业 可以说是致命一击，将使风能和太阳能项目的成本增加10%至20%。 就在几周前，马斯克也多次抨击了这项被特朗 ...

美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："在我们的空中交通管制系统多年衰退之后，这项"大而美法 案"将使这一老旧设施实现现代化，为美国带来地球上最好、最先进的空中交通管制系统——绝对是迄 今为止最棒的！"，"大而美法案"将为美国带来最好的空管系统(新浪财经) ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...