全球各大央行正面临着经济增长和通胀前景的不确定性加剧这一难题，这使得决策过程变得复杂，尤其 是对于那些在接近结束降息周期时试图调整政策的央行而言。这也让投资预测变得艰难。挪威央行周四 宣布下调利率，这是该行自 2020 年以来的首次降息，此举令市场大为意外。就连美联储也警告称，不 要过分依赖其政策预测，随时可能变化。 1、瑞士 瑞士央行于周四将基准利率下调至零。该行表示，此举是出于对通货膨胀率下降、瑞士法郎升值以及由 美国不确定的贸易政策所引发的经济不稳定状况的考虑。关键问题在于，下次该行是否会将利率降至负 值区间。瑞士央行仍在考虑各种可能性，但主席马丁·施莱格尔表示，鉴于目前利率已降至零，进一步降 息的难度更大了。 3、瑞典 瑞典央行于周三将基准利率从 2.25%下调至 2%，并表示鉴于物价压力较小，该行可能在年底前进一步放 宽政策，以促进经济增长乏力的局面。瑞典央行一直属于较为激进的央行之一，自 2024 年 5 月以来已 累计下调了 200 个基点。 2、加拿大 加拿大央行在 6 月初将利率维持在 2.75%的水平，并表示如果在面临关税影响的情况下经济出现下滑， 可能还需要进一步降息。此次暂停是加拿大央 ...

道明证券：预计英国央行将于8月份降息，但不可能连续宽松。 ...

交易员加大了对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年还会再降息50个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasing their bets on an 80% probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August, with expectations of an additional 50 basis points reduction this year [1] Group 1 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England has risen significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards monetary easing [1] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates reflects concerns over economic conditions and the need for supportive monetary policy [1]

英国至6月19日英国央行MPC投票赞成降息 3，预期2，前值7。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has strengthened against the Norwegian Krone by 1.5% to 11.621 following an unexpected interest rate cut by the Norwegian central bank [1] Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank's decision to cut interest rates was unexpected, leading to significant market reactions [1] - The increase in the Euro's value against the Norwegian Krone indicates a shift in investor sentiment and currency dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, contrary to market expectations of no change, leading to a significant appreciation of the US dollar against the Norwegian krone, peaking at 10.11 [1] Group 1 - The interest rate cut by the Norwegian central bank is a notable shift in monetary policy, indicating a response to economic conditions [1] - The market had anticipated that the interest rates would remain unchanged, highlighting a divergence between market expectations and actual policy decisions [1] - The US dollar's substantial rise against the Norwegian krone reflects market reactions to the interest rate change, suggesting increased demand for USD [1]

智通财经6月19日电，挪威央行降息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。 ...

菲律宾央行降息25个基点 菲律宾至6月19日央行政策利率 5.25%，预期5.25%，前值5.50%。 ...

交易员略微减少了英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将降息41个基点。 ...