Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with the process divided into three key phases, requiring patience from stakeholders [2][4]. Group 1: Market Confidence and Sales Performance - The Politburo meeting on September 26 established confidence in stabilizing the real estate market, leading to significant improvements in market sentiment from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with total annual sales of new and second-hand homes increasing by 120 million square meters [2][6]. - However, in Q2 2025, both sales volume and prices showed signs of weakening, indicating potential market volatility [2][10]. - The overall sales area of new homes has declined by approximately 55% from historical peaks, while second-hand home sales have decreased by about 6% [6]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Implementation - The current real estate policy framework consists of three main categories: 1. Policies aimed at adjusting supply-demand structures and restoring price expectations to achieve the first two phases of stabilization [3][20]. 2. Measures to mitigate and address risks arising from the downward cycle of real estate, preventing non-linear impacts on the macroeconomy [3][20]. 3. Long-term institutional policies aimed at correcting and preventing issues exposed during the current cycle [3][20]. - The first category includes adjustments to interest rates and purchase restrictions, as well as urban village renovations and the acquisition of existing land and housing [21][22]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the industry is expected to continue its bottoming phase, but there is considerable potential for recovery in the medium to long term [4][41]. - The anticipated scenario for 2025 is a "medium policy" situation, where total sales performance may slightly exceed expectations due to the prolonged effects of the September 26 policy [4][41]. - The recovery of total housing sales to historically reasonable levels is expected to create significant upward potential, particularly as the balance of new and second-hand homes improves [4][41]. Group 4: Risk Management and Structural Adjustments - The real estate sector faces risks related to high leverage among developers, which has led to liquidity crises and issues such as the "guarantee delivery" problem [31][32]. - Effective management of credit risks in real estate companies is crucial to avoid negative impacts on market sentiment and financial stability [32][34]. - The government is encouraged to adopt a more proactive approach in supporting systemically important real estate companies while balancing moral hazard and fairness in the restructuring process [33][34].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in new home sales and second-hand home prices in 2024, but signs of recovery are emerging in 2025 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In 2024, the national new residential sales area decreased by 12.9%, and second-hand home prices fell across all major cities, with Xiamen seeing a drop of 13.1% [1] - By April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month increase in new home prices, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core areas like Beijing and Shanghai surged by 30% year-on-year [3] Policy Changes - The central government is actively promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, with measures such as reducing down payment ratios to 15% and lowering mortgage rates to just above 3% [3] - A significant investment plan for 2025 includes the addition of 1 million urban village renovation projects and the conversion of existing housing stock into affordable housing [3] Market Segmentation - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are stabilizing due to economic vitality and population inflow, while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling with significant declines in land sale revenues and high inventory levels [4][5] - In June 2025, the average new home price in Zhengzhou was 13,404 yuan per square meter, with core area properties showing strong sales, while suburban areas continued to see price declines of 3%-8% [3][4] Investment Opportunities - The shift in policy to classify real estate as "mass consumption" is expected to stimulate demand, particularly for larger homes with improved standards [5] - Financial innovations such as REITs for affordable housing and commercial properties are providing new funding avenues for developers, potentially stabilizing returns for investors [5] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that core city home prices may rise by 3%-5% with transaction volumes increasing by 15%, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to see price declines of 3%-8% [6] - The overall sentiment suggests that the real estate market is nearing a bottom, with a high probability of recovery in the coming year [5][6]

证券代码：600322 证券简称：津投城开 天津津投城市开发股份有限公司 会 议 资 料 二○二五年五月 目 录 天津津投城市开发股份有限公司 （2025 年 5 月 22 日） 会 议 文 件 之 一 天津津投城市开发股份有限公司 （2025 年 5 月 22 日） 各位股东： 体股东负责的态度，持续提升公司治理水平，严格执行股东大会各项决议，确保董事 会运作规范高效。公司全体董事勤勉尽责、恪尽职守，认真履行股东赋予的职责，有 效维护了公司和公司股东的合法权益。现将董事会本年度工作情况说明如下： 一、 主要经济指标完成情况 亿元，归属于母公司所有者净利润为-2.10 亿元。截至 2024 年末，公司总资产为 134.64 亿元，净资产为 4.96 亿元，归属于母公司所有者净资产为 0.17 亿元。 本报告期，公司（含全资、控股子公司、参股公司按权益计算）实现合同销售面 积 7.43 万平方米，同比减少 45.85%；合同销售金额为 12.84 亿元，同比减少 46.94%。 截至 2024 年末，公司施工面积为 98.61 万平方米，比上年同期减少 19.50%。本 报告期公司新开工面积 9.83 万平方米 ...