俄罗斯第二季度消费者信心指数升至-8，第一季度GDP同比增长1.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales in May experienced the largest decline of the year, indicating a significant suppressive effect of the new tariff policy on consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, worse than the market expectation of a 0.6% decline, with the previous value revised down to -0.1% [2]. - Excluding automobiles, sales decreased by 0.3%, also below the expected increase of 0.2% [2]. - Among 13 categories, 7 saw a decline in sales, with building materials and motor vehicles experiencing the largest drops [2]. Consumer Behavior Insights - Consumers are systematically reducing spending after a prior surge driven by tariff-related purchasing [3]. - The restaurant and accommodation sectors, key indicators of service consumption, recorded the second-largest monthly decline of the year, reflecting a tightening in non-essential spending [2][3]. - A media survey indicated that 60% of American households have significantly cut back on discretionary spending due to concerns over economic downturn risks [3]. Sector Performance - In May, sales in home and garden centers dropped by 2.7%, electronics and appliance stores fell by 0.6%, and grocery stores decreased by 0.7% [4]. - Conversely, online retailers saw a sales increase of 0.9%, clothing stores grew by 0.8%, and furniture stores rose by 1.2% [4]. Future Economic Outlook - Historical trends suggest that price increases may be most pronounced in July, with the full impact of tariffs expected to gradually manifest later in the year, potentially suppressing real income growth [4][6]. - Despite the current decline in consumer confidence, stable inflation and low unemployment rates may support sustained consumer growth in the coming months [3].

6月13日，美国密歇根大学公布的数据显示，6月消费者信心指数意外回升至60.5，明显高于市场预期的58，也远高于5月的52.2。这不仅终结了此前连续五个 月的下滑趋势，更显示出美国家庭对经济现状和未来前景的看法正在发生微妙变化。然而，Vatee认为虽然短期信心反弹，但与去年同期相比，该指数仍低 11.3%，说明深层次的不确定性尚未完全消除。 从分项指标来看，消费者对当前经济状况的信心指数升至63.7，环比上涨8.1%，而对未来经济状况的信心则改善更为明显，从上月的47.9跃升至58.4，环比 涨幅达21.9%。这表明消费者对中短期经济前景的担忧有所缓解，部分得益于通胀数据的回落以及市场对美联储年内可能降息的押注升温。 即便信心指标短期回升，但目前的整体信心水平仍处于较低区间。自俄乌冲突以来，能源价格、食品价格波动较大，叠加高利率和高房贷成本的现实压力， 美国消费者的实际购买力受到明显挤压。企业裁员预期上升、信贷环境偏紧等因素也使得部分家庭对未来仍保持谨慎。 从政策层面看，若通胀持续缓和且信心进一步改善，可能强化美联储在9月或12月会议上降息的合理性。但如果油价因地缘政治持续上行、核心服务类通胀 反弹，消费信心 ...

密歇根大学六月十四日最新数据显示，美国消费者信心指数初值跃升至六十点五，较五月的五十二点二大幅升至十五点九，创下去年十二月以来最大涨幅， 远超经济学家预期。这一关键指标在连续五个月下滑后首次回升，反映出消费者对美国经济前景的悲观情绪出现松动。 当前美国消费者支出尚未受情绪波动明显冲击，但历史表明，信心指数并非消费行为的可靠预测指标。荷兰国际集团经济学家指出，韩国四月对美出口骤降 百分之十四点三等迹象，印证关税已开始损害全球供应链。美国全国零售商联合会警告："辛勤工作的美国家庭将为价格上升付出代价"。 a Or - 6 421 r Pre 尽管指数全面回升，但当前美国消费者信心相较去年十二月仍低约百分之二十。消费者对商业环境、个人财务及就业市场的评估均显著弱于半年前，凸显其 谨慎态度未根本扭转。若七月八日对等关税如期生效，而美国未能在一个月内与百余贸易伙伴达成新协议，紧张情绪可能再度升温。 本周美国劳工部数据带来利好消息：五月CPI环比仅微涨百分之零点一，低于预期。这暂时缓解了关税推高物价的担忧，但经济学家普遍警告，进口成本传 导效应可能在数月后显现。数据公布后，美国相关人士再次呼吁美联储"降息整整一个百分点" ...

Market Overview - The New York stock market experienced significant declines due to heightened risk aversion following Israel's military strikes on Iran, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 769.83 points to close at 42197.79, a decrease of 1.79% [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 68.29 points to 5976.97, down 1.13%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 255.66 points to 19406.83, a decline of 1.30% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, ten out of eleven sectors declined, with the financial and technology sectors leading the losses at 2.06% and 1.50%, respectively, while the energy sector rose by 1.72% [1] Geopolitical Impact - Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi condemned the Israeli attacks, stating that Iran would respond appropriately [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that military actions would continue until threats are eliminated, with reports of Iran launching missiles towards Israel [1] Oil Market and Inflation Concerns - The conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns in the market, particularly regarding oil prices, which have increased by 40% over the past two months due to geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2] - If oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, U.S. inflation could accelerate towards 5% [3] - A $10 increase in international oil prices could raise the U.S. Consumer Price Index by 0.5 percentage points, impacting consumer spending and economic growth [3] Economic Forecasts - If the conflict escalates significantly, global economic growth could be adversely affected, with a projected reduction of 1.8% in global GDP growth and a 1.9% decrease in U.S. GDP growth over the next year [3] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for June in the U.S. was reported at 60.5, an increase from 52.2 in May, indicating a slight improvement in consumer sentiment despite inflation concerns [3] Stock Performance - Oil and gas stocks, along with defense-related stocks, saw price increases, while travel-related stocks declined [4]

美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 60.5，预期 53.6，前值 52.2。 ...

【美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期创2001年10月以来最大环比降幅】美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数初值 60.5，创2024年1月以来最大升幅，预期 53.6，前值 52.2。 美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 4.1%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.2%。 美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 5.1%，预期 6.4%，前值 6.6%。 ...

美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为60.5，预期53.5，前值52.2。 ...

智通财经6月13日电，美国密歇根大学6月份消费者信心指数报60.5，预期为53.6。 ...

提醒：北京时间22:00，将公布美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预 期初值、美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值。 ...