专题：美联储维持基准利率不变 鲍威尔排除加息可能性 并建议继任者"远离政治" 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中金研究：美联储按兵不动，降息时点或推迟 来源：中金点睛 北京时间今天凌晨结束的1月FOMC上，美联储按兵不动，维持基准利率在3.5%~3.75%，符合预期。12 月FOMC通过修改声明措辞就传递了清晰的不想再降息的信号，我们在（《比12月降息更重要的事》） 中也清晰的提示了这一点，随后在失业率和通胀超预期回落的"加持"下，CME利率期货隐含1月不降息 的概率在会议前已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月，会议后维持不变。 图表：会议前CME利率期货隐含1月不降息的概率已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月份 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 2 ...

美联储理事沃勒对本次美联储决议持反对意见，支持降息25个基点后，预测网站Kalshi显示，其获得美 联储主席提名的机会上从8%上升到了15%。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

市场分析师Ghiles Guezout表示，这一宣布可能最早就在今天。财经网站Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan也表示，特朗普官宣时机有可能特意安排在美联储1月政策会议期间。据分析，此举具有战略 意图，若美联储此次未降息，那么在会议期间宣布美联储主席人选将使白宫能够左右政策叙事。 特朗普可能提前公布下任美联储主席提名，甚至将官宣时间与本周美联储的利率决议同步。美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨03:00公布利率决议。 周二在爱荷华州的演讲中，特朗普表示："我很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。"至于很快是"多快"，市场 对此的猜测正在加剧。 当前市场押注的热门人选为贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德尔（Rick Rieder），投资者认 为他支持降息，且不会对美联储的独立性构成直接威胁。 截至发稿，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，里德尔的当选概率以46.1%位居首位，远超前美联储理事 凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）的29%；现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）的概率为 7.5%，国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Ke ...

本周参加达沃斯世界经济论坛的企业高管和投资者也私下表达了对里德的支持。 特朗普周四告诉记者，他已经完成了对所有候选人的面试，并且心中已经有了人选，但未做进一步说 明。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，特朗普最早可能在下周宣布决定。 据知情人士透露，里克·里德深厚的华尔街背景及其对改革央行的开放态度增强了他在一众美联储主席 候选人中的竞争力。 据知情人士称，这位贝莱德高管被认为具备央行行长的风范，他凭借着关于改革美联储的众多构想吸引 了特朗普的关注。 消息人士称，里德的另一个优势在于：与该职位的其他三位最终入围者不同，他从未在美联储工作过， 被认为不会受制于该机构。 里德是最终四位候选人之一，在特朗普政府官员寻求投资者对这些候选人意见时，里德得到了债券市场 参与者的积极评价。 其他竞争者包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯·沃勒和前美联储官员凯文·沃 什。 里德是最终四位候选人之一，在特朗普政府官员寻求投资者对这些候选人意见时，里德得到了债券市场 参与者的积极评价。 其他竞争者包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯·沃勒和前美联储官员凯文·沃 什。 本周参加达沃斯世界经济论坛的企 ...

特朗普在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛期间还透露，相关遴选已接近尾声，最初多达11人的候选范围如 今"可能只剩下一人"。这一表态迅速引发市场反应。在预测市场Kalshi上，交易员将里德尔获得提名的 概率上调至33%，较本周初几乎翻倍。里德尔本人未就此置评。 目前，前美联储理事凯文·沃什仍以约45%的概率领跑，但这一数字较周一已下滑约14个百分点。负责 候选人筛选工作的美国财政部长贝森特此前表示，预计特朗普将在下周公布最终决定。 智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普的公开称赞下，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里德尔(Rick Rieder)获得美联储主席提名的预期明显升温。 特朗普周三在接受采访时表示，自己近日与里德尔会面后，对其印象"非常深刻"。随着现任美联储主席 鲍威尔的任期将于今年5月届满，里德尔已进入接任美联储主席的最终候选名单。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump is nearing a decision on the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that a nomination is expected soon [1][2]. Candidate Selection Process - The selection process has narrowed from 11 candidates to four finalists, with Trump having met personally with all of them [2]. - The four candidates reportedly include National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock's chief fixed income strategist, Rick Rieder [2][3]. - Prediction markets suggest that Hassett, Warsh, and Waller are leading candidates, with Warsh currently being viewed as the front-runner [3]. Criticism of Current Chair - White House officials, including Trump and Bessent, have criticized Jerome Powell's management of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, citing issues with ethical conduct among Fed officials [4][5]. - There have been multiple resignations among Fed officials due to ethical violations, raising concerns about accountability within the institution [5]. Independence and Accountability of the Fed - Bessent emphasized the importance of the Fed's monetary policy independence while also asserting that this independence does not equate to a lack of accountability to the American public [5][6]. - Powell's term as chair is set to expire in May, but he has the option to remain as a governor until 2028 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new chair of the Federal Reserve has intensified with the emergence of Rick Rieder as a potential dark horse candidate, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [2][3]. Candidate Overview - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, has reportedly performed well in interviews with President Trump, increasing his odds of nomination significantly [4]. - Rieder's background is notable as he lacks a traditional economics PhD, similar to current chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the profile of Fed leadership [4]. Monetary Policy Stance - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient view on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and supports employment [5]. Market Predictions - Current betting markets indicate that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's odds rising sharply to second place, followed by Christopher Waller [6]. Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty. Hassett's potential continuation in his current role may narrow the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller [8]. - The political environment is tense, with recent scrutiny of the Fed's renovation project leading to increased challenges for any nominee, but Rieder is viewed as a safer option due to his market-oriented background [8]. Confirmation Process - Mnuchin expressed confidence that the Senate will not block Trump's eventual nominee, indicating a belief in a smooth confirmation process [9].

特朗普上周对提名哈塞特接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔一事表达了保留态度。他在白宫的一场活动中对这 位国家经济委员会主任表示："说实话，我实际上希望你能留在现在的位置上。" 特朗普发表讲话后，预测市场网站Kalshi上的交易员将沃什获得这份工作的可能性提高到60%，而哈塞 特和沃勒的可能性仅为16%和14%。Polymarket的交易员也表达了类似的动态，沃什的支持率为60%， 哈塞特的支持率为15%，沃勒为13%。此前，沃什和哈塞特的胜率势均力敌。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，白银td上周五延续跌势，价格小幅下跌，今日价格开盘回落，后反弹上涨，一小时MACD柱 状图由负值变为正值，表明目前上涨趋势复苏，趋势线逐渐远离零线，表明整体上涨趋势也在增加，相 对强弱指数(RSI)在一小时图上处于中性偏涨，DMI表明目前多头占据上风，白银td走势下方关注20500- 21500支撑；上方关注23500-24500阻力。 今日周一(1月19日)欧盘时段，白银td目前交投于22995一线上方，今日开盘于22702元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报23090元/千克，上涨1.69%，最高触及23535元/千克，最低下探21 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's hesitation in nominating Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman adds uncertainty to the selection process, as he prefers Hassett to remain as a key economic advisor in the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Uncertainty - Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to stay in his current role, indicating that moving him could result in losing a significant economic spokesperson [2][3]. - Following Trump's comments, analysts speculate that Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha noting that this news positions Warsh as a top contender [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - After Trump's remarks, the dollar rebounded slightly from its intraday low, while the stock market shifted from gains to losses, reflecting market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair nomination [4]. - The two-year Treasury yield increased by 2.6 basis points, reaching above 3.59%, indicating market adjustments to the evolving situation [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The search for a new Fed Chair occurs at a delicate moment for monetary policymakers, as the U.S. economy faces conflicting pressures [6]. - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, prompting calls within the Fed for rate cuts to support the job market, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the decision-making process [7][8]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [8].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated his intention to keep Kevin Hassett as the Director of the National Economic Council rather than nominating him for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve [1][3] Group 1: Nomination Insights - Kevin Walsh's probability of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair increased from slightly above 40% to around 60% following Trump's remarks [3] - Kevin Hassett's chances of receiving the nomination dropped from approximately 35% to about 15% after Trump's statement [3] Group 2: Background Information - Kevin Walsh is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [3] - Trump previously interviewed Walsh for the Federal Reserve Chair position in 2017 but ultimately chose Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May of this year [3] - Since taking office, Trump has advocated for significant interest rate cuts and has publicly criticized Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3]