美联储博斯蒂克：不确定性意味着更高的风险，美联储只控制了一部分资本价格。 ...

本文来自微信公众号 "哈佛商业评论"（ID：hbrchinese），作者：薛纯，36氪经授权发布。 薛纯 | 文 她发现，人们对心理不确定性的认识相对浅薄，但这种不确定性恰恰可以成为对抗恐惧和提升认知能力的关键。玛吉在研究中逐渐认识到，不确定性不应 被视为弱点或障碍，而是一种积极的思维方式，能帮助人们更好地应对快速变化的世界。 因此，玛吉著作了《意料之内》这本书，其中文版前不久上市，我们有幸与玛吉展开对话，探讨如何在中国本土化的职场场景中，运用不确定性原理提升 职场人士的适应能力和创造力，以及如何培养更多能够在不确定性中成长的职场人才。 刘玥 | 编辑 我们似乎正被科技编织的确定性网络所包围。出行时，导航精准规划路线，外卖平台实时追踪送餐进度，智能设备时刻监测健康数据，算法精准推送感兴 趣的内容。科技正在精准计算，驱散不确定性带来的焦虑。但是这种对确定性的依赖，真的是生活的"最优解"吗？ 2007年，苹果公司推出第一代iPhone时，传统手机厂商普遍认为触摸屏手机难以取代按键手机，但也正是在充满不确定性的市场领域内，苹果的成功推动 了手机行业的发展。 后疫情时代，学者们对于"不确定性"的探讨逐年增多。多位学者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Jon Cunliffe, emphasized that ignoring uncertainty does not help in maintaining credibility [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the importance of acknowledging economic uncertainties in policy-making [1] - Cunliffe's remarks suggest that transparency and communication regarding uncertainties are crucial for the central bank's reputation [1] - The comments come in the context of ongoing economic challenges faced by the UK, including inflation and market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest global sanctions report analyzes the expected changes in sanctions inflation and other significant macro trends that will shape the risk landscape this year [2][3]. Group 1: Global Sanctions Index (GSI) - The Global Sanctions Index (GSI) was officially launched in 2022, focusing on the phenomenon of sanctions inflation, which refers to the rapid and continuous increase in the number of sanctioned individuals globally [3]. - As of March 2025, the total number of sanctioned individuals is nearly 80,000, with an annual sanctions inflation rate of 17.1%, down from 18.9% a year ago [6]. - The GSI has reached 446, representing a 446% increase since the baseline date of January 2017 [6]. Group 2: Key Macro Trends - The report identifies six macro trends that will have profound impacts on the sanctions landscape and compliance teams: - **Super Inflation**: Refers to the rapid and sustained growth in the number of sanctioned individuals over time [8]. - **Divergence**: Highlights the gradual breakdown of global consensus on sanctions, the rise of autonomous sanctions measures, and increasing legal conflicts [9]. - **Complexity**: The complexity of sanctions requires deep professional knowledge [10]. - **Extraterritoriality**: Risks associated with secondary sanctions expand the scope of regulation [11]. - **Privatization**: The responsibility for identifying sanctioned targets has shifted from governments to the private sector, often leading to broad descriptive statements rather than specific names [12]. - **Uncertainty**: A new macro trend identified for 2025, indicating increasing uncertainty in global sanctions [13]. Group 3: Divergence Trend - A significant trend that may intensify is divergence, as the global consensus on sanctions has been gradually eroding since the 9/11 attacks. The percentage of UN consensus-based sanctions has dropped to a historical low of 1.25% as of March 2025 [15]. - The divergence phenomenon has persisted for several years, and the current situation may lead to a highly differentiated new era, particularly in light of the U.S. sanctions against Russia [15].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that asset valuations do not align with the "very high" level of uncertainty currently present in the market [1] Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which is not reflected in asset valuations [1] - De Guindos emphasized the need for caution among investors due to the mismatch between asset prices and economic conditions [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring the situation as it could impact monetary policy decisions in the future [1]

韩国贸易部长：全球经济和贸易因不确定性增加而面临压力。 ...

美联储戴利：市场情绪受到冲击，但尚未反映在消费者和企业的整体支出大幅回落中，不确定性并未抑 制经济活动，但如果不确定性持续存在，可能会对经济产生影响。 ...

美联储戴利：在不确定性下企业保持谨慎，但尚未陷入停滞。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility at the beginning of Trump's second term, but this may not be a significant issue as some strategists believe it could lead to beneficial outcomes for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the November 5 election, the market surged as investors anticipated a business-friendly approach from President Trump [1]. - During Trump's first 100 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 8% [3]. - Strategists are finding reasons to believe that Trump may not fulfill his campaign promises, leading to skepticism about the market's optimistic outlook [3]. Group 2: Uncertainty and Its Implications - Albert Edwards argues that uncertainty, often seen as a market enemy, could actually benefit Wall Street by keeping investors alert [3][4]. - The term "uncertainty" has become prevalent in discussions, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell used it extensively in a March press conference [3]. - Edwards suggests that excessive certainty can lead to increased debt levels, which could be detrimental to the market [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Corporate Impact - The Federal Reserve's attempts to ensure a soft landing and reduce volatility may inadvertently encourage credit and financial bubbles [6][7]. - Edwards warns that the current political climate, characterized by populist interventionist policies, could undermine the stock market's bullish trend [10]. - He highlights the issue of price gouging during the pandemic, where unit costs rose while corporate profit margins reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in regulatory stance under Trump [10]. Group 4: Future Regulatory Changes - Edwards anticipates that Trump may push for stronger competition regulations, which could negatively impact corporate profit margins as companies are forced to absorb increased costs from tariffs [10]. - The potential for regulatory changes could create further uncertainty in the market, which may not be the worst outcome for investors [11].

欧洲央行管委Knot：（欧元区）经济增长和通胀短期内都面临不确定性。 ...