李迅雷/文 2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济 工作会议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理 回升已经成为一项重要的政策目标。 那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济 结构的扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显 的回升迹象，CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的关注。 实际上，从2012年5月份开始，我国的PPI走势与欧美就发生了分野，即我国开始步入负值区间，欧美则 维持正增长。而且，我国这轮PPI步入负值区间时间长达4年零5个月，到2016年10月才回正。 为何会PPI为负能那么长时间呢？首先是2011年全球大宗商品价格出现历史性的大拐点，随后黄金等贵 金属价格也出现了大幅回落。其次是我国为应对美国次贷危机扩散对中国经济造成的冲击，2009年出台 了为期两年的大规模基建投资刺激政策，这项政 ...

2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济工作会 议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理回升已经成为 一项重要的政策目标。那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济结构的 扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显的回升迹象， CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的关注。 实际上， 从2012年5月份开始，我国的PPI走势与欧美就发生了分野， 即我国开始步入负值区间，欧美则维持 正增长。而且，我国这轮PPI步入负值区间时间长达4年零5个月，到2016年10月才回正。 为何会PPI为负能那么长时间呢？首先是2011年全球大宗商品价格出现历史性的大拐点，随后黄金等贵金属价 格也出现了大幅回落。其次是我国为应对美国次贷危机扩散对中国经济造成的冲击，2009年出台了为期两年的 大规模基建投资刺激政策，这项政策的传导效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and recent developments in China's consumer price index (CPI) and inflation, emphasizing the government's efforts to improve supply-demand relationships through various policies and reforms, particularly focusing on the "anti-involution" measures in the supply side to stabilize prices [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - In the first eight months of the year, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.5%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, indicating significant challenges in achieving the inflation target set at around 2% [2][3]. - The core CPI has shown a positive trend since May, with a month-on-month increase reaching 0.9% in August. The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for the first time after five months of continuous expansion [2][3]. Supply-Side "Anti-Involution" Policies - The "anti-involution" measures aim to combat excessive competition that distorts market mechanisms and harms consumer interests. These measures include promoting industry self-discipline and optimizing market competition [4][5]. - Key actions include regulating local government behaviors, enhancing industry standards, and revising laws to prevent unfair competition and price manipulation [5][6]. Industry-Specific Developments - The government has implemented policies to improve the competitive landscape in various sectors, including coal, steel, and new energy vehicles, leading to a reduction in price declines in these industries [3][5]. - The focus on quality competition encourages companies to invest in technology and brand development rather than engaging in price wars, which is expected to foster a healthier market environment [6][7]. Demand-Side Considerations - The article highlights the need for demand-side measures to complement supply-side reforms, as the current "anti-involution" efforts have not significantly boosted commodity prices compared to previous supply-side reforms [8][9]. - The disparity between industrial output growth and consumer spending indicates a need for policies that stimulate demand, particularly in the service sector, to enhance overall economic activity [10][11]. Employment and Investment Strategies - Employment remains a critical focus, with policies aimed at increasing job opportunities for key demographics, including graduates and migrant workers, to boost consumer spending [11]. - Investment in infrastructure and private sector development is essential for expanding domestic demand, with ongoing efforts to streamline project approvals and enhance support for private enterprises [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that supply-side "anti-involution" will be an important policy tool to improve the supply-demand relationship and stabilize prices, with a CPI target set at around 2% for the year [1][2] - The CPI has shown a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first eight months, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, has increased by 0.5% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.9%, but the monthly decline has narrowed for the first time after five months of expansion, indicating some positive changes in price dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" measures are aimed at curbing excessive competition that distorts market mechanisms and harms consumer interests, which has contributed to the long-term low price levels in China [4][5] - The government has implemented various policies to regulate local government behavior, enhance industry self-discipline, and standardize market practices to combat "involution" [5][6] - The focus on quality competition and innovation is emphasized, encouraging companies to improve competitiveness through technological advancements and brand building [6][7] Group 3 - The current "anti-involution" approach differs from the previous supply-side structural reforms, as it encompasses both upstream and downstream sectors, traditional and emerging industries, and emphasizes market-based and legal measures [7][8] - The demand side also needs to be strengthened to promote price recovery, as the current "anti-involution" measures have a limited impact compared to the previous "capacity reduction" efforts [8][9] - The analysis indicates that the correlation between PPI and commodity indices has reversed, highlighting the need for demand-side support to enhance overall price recovery [8][10] Group 4 - Employment is highlighted as a critical issue, with a focus on policies to promote job creation for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers [11] - The government is encouraged to relax consumption restrictions and increase public procurement to stimulate consumer spending [11][12] - Investment expansion is identified as a key area for boosting domestic demand, with potential in infrastructure and private sector investment [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and understanding, inspired by the thoughts of renowned investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Reading and Interaction - The publication aims to encourage continuous reading and interaction with its audience through book reviews, lists, and excerpts [4][5]. - Readers are invited to engage in discussions on selected themes, with opportunities to receive books based on the quality of their comments [6][11]. Featured Book: "Money and Government" - The highlighted book is "Money and Government" by Robert Skidelsky, which explores Keynesian economics and its relevance in modern times [9][10]. - The book discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [12][13]. Keynesian Economics - Keynesian thought emerged during the Great Depression, focusing on the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [13][14]. - Despite facing criticism and challenges from neoliberalism, Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises, as they provide tools for counter-cyclical measures [16][17]. Role of Money and Government - The book argues that both money and government are essential tools for managing uncertainty in economic activities, with money serving as a means to maintain value over time [15][19]. - It highlights the concept of liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during downturns, leading to insufficient demand [15][16]. Critique of Mainstream Economics - The author critiques mainstream economic theories that downplay the role of money and government, arguing that these theories fail to address real-world economic challenges [18][19]. - The discussion includes the historical context of economic events and the ideological biases that shape economic thought, advocating for a reevaluation of the roles of money and government in economic policy [19].