Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (6.3 - 5.6) [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were new developments in US tariffs, leading to high global uncertainty. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 132,400 tons, showing a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons compared with the previous week [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Downstream consumption in China was in the off - season with average willingness. Spot trading was for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific PMI - related content is provided other than the title [6][8] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and in 2025, it will be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][17] 3. Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [20] - **CFTC**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [22] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided other than the title [25] - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided other than the title [28] - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided other than the title [19]

正为了解决这样的顾虑而讨论各种措施。 （日美）将尽快达成协议。 日本首席谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正（Ryosei Akazawa）：今天与美国财长贝森特和商务部长卢 特尼克交谈。 美国方面的利益在于缩小贸易缺口。 已经强烈要求评估美国关税。 对于后续磋商，还没有做任何决定。 ...

德国总理默茨：美国的关税正在威胁我们的经济。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, indicated that if U.S. tariffs lead to an economic slowdown, a rate cut may be necessary [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy could necessitate a change in monetary policy [1] - Macklem emphasized the interconnectedness of the U.S. and Canadian economies, suggesting that external factors can significantly influence domestic economic conditions [1] - The Bank of Canada is closely monitoring economic indicators to assess the need for adjustments in interest rates [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel are the main focus of the report. Copper and zinc may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations; aluminum may oscillate in the short term; nickel may show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Market Analysis - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. With low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices, smelting output is under pressure. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but there are both positive and negative factors, so copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [1]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [1]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up 0.25% at night. Trump's tariff attitude is wavering, and the US inflation expectation is strong. There were disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, but there may be a turnaround. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector has declined, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening in the short term, so Shanghai aluminum may oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.25% at night. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising prices. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories, and nickel salt enterprises have production - cut expectations. Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term [1]. Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (CNY/ton) | Domestic Basis (CNY/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M) (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 77,940 | 215 | 9,639 | 52.31 | 143,850 | - 4,600 | | Aluminum | 19,990 | 110 | 2,471 | - 3.59 | 367,875 | - 2,400 | | Zinc | 22,570 | 135 | 2,712 | - 25.19 | 137,350 | - 800 | | Nickel | 121,150 | - 1,640 | 15,475 | - 200.58 | 201,462 | 1,152 | | Lead | 16,530 | - 165 | 1,986 | - 19.72 | 283,150 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 249,560 | 150 | 31,450 | - 79.00 | 2,605 | 0 | [2]

澳洲联储助理主席亨特：较高的美国关税将对全球经济产生拖累。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国关税损害出口商的利润，可能会对家庭和企业产生更广泛的影响，例 如削弱消费者信心。 ...

| 《八》国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月30日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【原油】 隔夜国际油价收跌,SC07合约日内收跌4.11%。昨日美国联邦上诉法院作出裁定,暂缓此前下级法院禁止特朗普 关税的命令14天,此前市场因美国关税遇阻带来的短期乐观情绪快速降温,且特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实 施关税的可能性依然较大。考虑到5月31日会议OPEC+增产压力悬而未决，中期供需宽松展望之下原油市场下行 压力积聚。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃油系期货大幅下行,FU跌幅更深。高硫方面,中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and its implications for gold trading strategies on a daily basis [1] Group 1 - The fluctuating nature of U.S. tariffs is highlighted as a significant factor affecting gold prices [1] - The article suggests that traders should consider various strategies for gold based on the current tariff situation [1]

日本政府官员：（就工厂产出表示）没有听到企业表示美国关税对其业务产生了重大影响。 ...