以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 作者：罗志恒 晁云霞 自2008年以来，本轮积极财政政策实行了长达17年之久，积极财政政策的内涵和特点也逐渐发生了 变化，及时总结积极财政政策的效果、分析当前财政政策存在的不足，并指出未来财政政策可能的转 型方向具有重要意义。我国积极的财政政策有力地促进了稳增长、惠民生和防风险，发挥了财政作为 国家治理的基础和重要支柱的作用。但积极财政政策仍存在一些不足，亟待转型优化以释放更大的政 策效力。 01 积极财政政策的实施效果 （一）有力地应对了外生冲击、促进了经济稳定 本轮积极财政政策实施以来，成功应对了2008年全球金融危机、2020年新冠疫情等外生冲击，确保 我国经济总体平稳运行。 2008—2010年，以扩大政府投资、实施结构性减税为主的积极财政政策 在供需两端发力，使我国经济保持在9.9%的平均增速，而同期的世界经济平均增速仅为1.7%。 2020年以来，我国在全球经济变局、国内经济新旧动能转换、疫情冲击等多重考验下，以大规模减 税降费和支出结构优化为主的积极财政政策持续发力， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a transformation and optimization of China's active fiscal policy after 17 years of implementation, highlighting its effectiveness in promoting economic stability, quality growth, and social welfare, while also addressing existing shortcomings and future directions for fiscal policy [2][3][4][5][6]. Group 2 - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining economic stability with an average growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%, and a growth rate of 4.7% from 2020 to 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% [3][4]. - The policy has shifted focus towards technology innovation and green development, enhancing the potential for long-term high-quality economic growth [4]. - Social welfare has improved, with rural minimum living standards increasing by 73.3% and urban low-income standards by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023, while the share of public budget for social welfare rose from 35.1% in 2013 to 40.7% in 2023 [5]. Group 3 - Current fiscal policy faces challenges, including an overemphasis on short-term fiscal balance, which may hinder long-term economic stability and increase hidden government debt risks [8][9]. - The effectiveness of large-scale tax reductions is diminishing, with the macro tax burden decreasing to 16.3% of GDP in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013, which may threaten fiscal sustainability [12]. - The structure of fiscal spending needs optimization, as there is a tendency to focus more on supply-side and enterprise support rather than on demand and household needs [13][24]. Group 4 - Future fiscal policy should transition from a balanced approach to a functional one, allowing for a potential breach of the 3% deficit limit to better support economic stability and growth [16][17]. - Systematic responses to long-term challenges such as aging population and digital economy risks are necessary, including enhancing social security systems and adapting tax policies to new economic realities [18][20]. - The focus should shift from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing direct government spending to stimulate demand and support households [22][25]. Group 5 - The article suggests that the term "active fiscal policy" should be reconsidered to "expansionary fiscal policy" to better convey the intended signals to the market and stabilize expectations [26][27].

Group 1 - South Korea's fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 0.72 in 2023, the lowest globally and less than half of the OECD average of 1.6 [1] - The aging population in South Korea is increasing at a faster rate than any other developed country, with the proportion of people aged 65 and older expected to exceed 40% by 2050, up from 17.9% in 2023 [1] - The elderly dependency ratio is projected to rise from 28% in 2023 to 44% by 2050, and could reach 117% by 2082, making it the highest among OECD countries [1] Group 2 - South Korea has the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD, with 40% of older adults living below the poverty line, attributed to a weak national pension system [2] - Only 37% of South Koreans aged 55 to 64 are still employed, with many exiting the labor market prematurely, averaging retirement at 49.4 years old [2] - Companies in South Korea often prefer to lay off older employees due to the financial burden of higher salaries for long-tenured workers, leading to subtle layoffs [2] Group 3 - Japan has implemented various policies to encourage continued employment, including raising the mandatory retirement age and providing employment options for older workers [3] - By 2023, Japan's employment rate for those in their 60s reached 63% due to these reforms [3] - Despite awareness of the need for labor market reforms in South Korea, achieving such changes is challenging and requires a consistent reform approach [3]

面对这样的现实趋势，如何精准满足日益多元的老龄群体需求，成为银发经济发展的关键。 郝福庆介绍，老龄人口需求一定是多样化、多层次的，不可能是千人一面的。因此，老年人群体可以从 多个维度划分，比如分为活力老人、高龄老人和失能及半失能老人等，也可以从收入水平和兴趣爱好等 角度划分。每一类老年人的需求存在很大差异。 ▲国家发改委原一级巡视员郝福庆在第三届老龄产业发展论坛上做主旨演讲。 "人口老龄化是大趋势，大趋势带来大需求，大需求孕育大市场，大市场呼唤大服务，大服务依靠大科 技。"5月28日，在第三届老龄产业发展论坛上，国家发改委原一级巡视员郝福庆在发表主题为"拥抱银 发经济，共创美好未来"的主旨演讲中表示，银发经济将成为中国经济发展的新"增长极"。 大趋势：多变的时代，确定的未来 郝福庆表示，目前我国已经进入了中度老龄化社会，2024年末，60岁以上人口达到3.1亿，占总人口的 22%。总人口在减少，老年人口在净增，这是未来中国人口发展的新常态。"老龄化速度发展很快，25 年前老年人口为1.3亿，今天已达3.1亿，再过25年可能将超过5亿。" 谈及老龄化的成因，郝福庆解释，原因其实很简单，就是医疗条件改善了，生活水 ...

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the current focus should be on promoting consumption due to various economic conditions [1][8] - It highlights the long-standing issues in China's domestic economic circulation, such as overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand, which have persisted since 2012 [2][5] - The article notes that the contribution of final consumption to GDP in China is below 40%, compared to over 50% in many other countries, indicating a need for policies that enhance household disposable income [9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural issues in fiscal spending, where approximately 85% of expenditures are concentrated at the local government level, limiting the central government's macroeconomic control [14][17] - It suggests that local governments are incentivized to focus on investment due to performance evaluations based on GDP growth, which may lead to overinvestment in certain sectors and exacerbate capacity issues [14][15] - The article proposes that improving the income distribution structure and increasing the disposable income of lower-income groups could significantly boost consumption [10][11] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, predicting a decline in total population by 2027 and emphasizing the need for adjustments in fiscal policy to support this demographic shift [18][21] - It points out that as the population ages, the contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to increase, necessitating a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and consumption multiplier effects [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of aligning infrastructure investment with population migration trends to optimize resource allocation and improve economic efficiency [24][25]

Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%[5] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% during the same period[5] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income standards increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[7] Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term economic risks, with the deficit rate rarely exceeding 3%[9] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013[13] - The fiscal expenditure structure needs optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support[14] Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Shift from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to stimulate economic growth[16] - Enhance the focus on long-term challenges such as population aging and digital economy risks, ensuring fiscal policy addresses both short-term stability and long-term sustainability[18] - Transition from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing efficiency and effectiveness in fiscal measures[22]

Core Insights - By 2080, the global aging population is projected to reach 3 billion, with individuals aged 65 and older surpassing those under 18, indicating significant societal changes ahead [1] - The ongoing trend of population aging is leading to issues such as pension fund shortages and insufficient social security resilience, prompting discussions on necessary reforms in pension systems [1] Group 1: Global Aging Challenges - Japan and Europe are among the first regions to experience severe aging, with Japan's former central bank governor highlighting that aging leads to decreased productivity as older individuals tend to spend more on healthcare rather than other sectors [3] - The decline in birth rates alongside aging populations will result in overall population decreases, complicating resource allocation and increasing maintenance costs for public infrastructure in declining areas [3][4] Group 2: Pension System Reforms - The pension system in China consists of three pillars: basic pension insurance, enterprise annuities, and personal savings or commercial pension insurance, which require optimization in light of aging demographics [4][5] - Key issues in China's pension system include a lack of consensus on the necessity of all three pillars, low benefit levels for agricultural populations, and limited coverage of enterprise annuities, with only 10% of employees participating [5] Group 3: Enhancing Pension Participation - To improve the attractiveness of personal pension systems, it is suggested that financial institutions offer competitive products tailored to different customer needs and risk preferences [6] - The second pillar, enterprise annuities, also needs to increase participation rates, with recommendations for simplifying the enrollment process and creating a platform for all companies to join, thus reducing the need for unanimous employee voting [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum will be held in Shenzhen on May 17-18, 2025, focusing on the theme "A Shared Future: Building an Open and Inclusive Economic and Financial System" to create a high-level dialogue platform for global government officials, economists, and financial leaders to gather wisdom and seek new cooperation opportunities [17]. Agenda Summary - The forum will feature keynote speeches and multiple thematic discussions, including: - Keynote speeches on the first day [6][10] - Discussions on the future of the global monetary system, international trade and investment, challenges of global economic fragmentation, and the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [6][11] - Sessions on green finance, emerging market debt crises, and global financial stability presented by the IMF [6][12] - The second day will include discussions on China's economic outlook, technological innovation in finance, digital finance in the AI era, and sustainable investing [12][14] - Closed-door sessions focusing on financial security, aging population challenges, inclusive finance, and cross-border payment trends [7][14]

江苏省是我国人口"最老"的省份之一，九年之前就启动了长护险试点，并成为我国为数不多的已实现长护险制度区域全覆盖的省份。 编者按：经过九年的试点探索，长期护理保险这一社保"第六险"即将在全国范围内正式推开。自2016年首批15个国家城市试点以来，长护险已覆盖49个试点 城市，累计260余万失能参保人享受待遇，基金支出超800亿元。这项制度的全面实施，不仅关乎数千万失能人员的切身福祉，更将深刻重塑我国养老服务格 局，撬动万亿级银发经济新蓝海。 在试点收官、全国推开的这一关键时刻，第一财经将与政策制定者、照护行业从业者、受益者等做深入交流，总结地方探索的宝贵经验，前瞻制度落地可能 面临的新挑战，共同见证我国养老保障体系的历史性升级。 家住徐州市鼓楼区拾屯街道杨西村的失能老人陈先生，可能自己也没有想到，卧床不起两年之后，还能再一次站立起来。 两年前，陈先生因脑梗后遗症重度失能，连最简单的日常动作都需要别人帮忙。2023年7月，来自徐州市社康老年服务中心的长护险护理员石师傅开始上门 提供服务，严格按照康复流程为老人做肢体训练，从肌肉张力逐渐恢复，到能在搀扶下坐立，再到如今短暂的站立，陈先生的身体机能明显得以改善。 陈先 ...