涉外收支规模稳步增加 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元，同比增长10.4%，规模创历史同期 新高，其中，人民币在跨境收支中的比重达到53%。上半年，银行结汇和售汇规模合计2.3万亿美元， 同比增长3%，规模为历史同期次高。这些数据表明，我国跨境贸易和投融资活动继续保持活跃。 跨境资金延续净流入 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入1273亿美元，延续去年下半年以来的净流入态势，其 中，二季度净流入环比增长46%。分项目看，上半年货物贸易项下净流入保持高位，外资总体净增持境 内股票和债券，服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出平稳有序。 外汇市场供求基本平衡 上半年，银行结售汇逆差253亿美元，但月度间呈现较为明显的变化。其中，1月结售汇为逆差，2—4月 趋向基本平衡，5月和6月结售汇转为顺差，企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。上半年，衡量 结汇意愿的外汇收入结汇率为60%，同比保持稳定；衡量购汇意愿的外汇支出售汇率为65%，同比下降 3个百分点。 据央视新闻消息，国务院新闻办今天（22日）举行新闻发布会，国家外汇管理局发布上半年外汇收支情 况。国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李 ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in the first half of 2025, the scale of cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached a historical high for the same period [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market maintained stable operations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - Cross-border trade and investment financing were active, contributing to the record levels of cross-border income and expenditure [1] - The foreign exchange market expectations remained stable, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining basic stability and continued net inflow of cross-border funds [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were generally balanced, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves remained stable [1]

欧洲央行称外汇储备增加1亿欧元至3241亿欧元。 ...

欧洲央行：外汇储备增加1亿欧元至3241亿欧元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have shown a steady increase, reaching $33,174 billion by the end of June, reflecting the resilience of the national economy and its ability to manage complex domestic and international economic situations [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Economic Stability - The foreign exchange reserves have increased for six consecutive months and have remained above $3.2 trillion for 19 months, indicating a robust economic growth [1] - In the first half of the year, China's total exports reached 13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.2%, while non-financial foreign direct investment amounted to $61.6 billion, up 2.3% [1] Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - The increase in foreign exchange reserves directly influences domestic monetary policy, allowing for adjustments in liquidity in the market [2] - The current foreign exchange reserves cover 14 months of imports and are 3.2 times the short-term external debt, providing a strong foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Implications - Adequate foreign exchange reserves support a stable exchange rate, which helps enterprises manage import and export risks and enhances China's negotiating power in trade disputes [3] - The reserves enable Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, particularly in infrastructure and commodities, while also allowing the Ministry of Finance to issue bonds denominated in euros or yen [3] Group 4: Asset Composition and Strategy - The management of foreign exchange reserves focuses on safety, liquidity, and profitability, with a notable shift away from U.S. Treasury bonds, which have decreased by $54 billion from their peak [4] - As of June, China's gold reserves increased to 7.39 million ounces, indicating a strategic move to diversify reserve assets and enhance the long-term value of the RMB [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Musalem indicated that foreign exchange reserves appear to be sufficient at this time, but a scarcity of these reserves would signal potential issues [1] Group 1 - The current status of foreign exchange reserves is deemed adequate [1] - A future decline in foreign exchange reserves could indicate emerging risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings may suggest a potential investment opportunity in gold for ordinary investors, but historical trends indicate that central bank actions do not always correlate with gold price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold Holdings - As of mid-2025, China's foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $3.3 trillion, with gold holdings reaching 73.9 million ounces, marking an increase for eight consecutive months [2]. Historical Context of Gold Prices - Despite central banks increasing gold purchases, gold prices have sometimes declined. For instance, from November 2012 to December 2015, gold prices fell by 37% even as central banks bought more gold [2][3]. - The price of gold has historically experienced significant volatility, often influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions rather than solely by central bank actions [3]. Recent Trends in Gold Prices - Since January 2022, domestic gold prices in China rose from 368 yuan per gram to a peak of 825 yuan per gram by April 2025, reflecting a 124% increase, while international gold prices also saw over a 110% rise during the same period [3]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter of 2025, global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 123 tons, the largest in three years, indicating that some investors are cashing out [4]. - Domestic retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with significant spikes in trading volume during periods of heightened geopolitical tension [4][5]. Caution for New Investors - The influx of ordinary investors into the gold market may signal that prices have already factored in current uncertainties, suggesting a potential peak in investment demand [5]. - New investors should carefully consider their asset allocation and the associated risks, especially given the high transaction costs and potential for lower returns from short-term gold holdings [5].

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Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, marking a 0.98% increase from the previous month, and this is the first time since September 2024 that reserves surpassed the $33 trillion mark [4][6] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons), adding 70,000 ounces in June, which is the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [7][9] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to three main factors: a decline in the US dollar index, rising global asset prices, and appreciation of non-USD currencies [6][8] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching a three-year low, which increased the dollar value of non-USD assets held in reserves [6] - Global asset prices saw a rise, with the USD-denominated global bond index increasing by 1.0% and the S&P 500 index rising by 5.0% in June [6] - The appreciation of the euro and British pound against the dollar by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively also contributed to the increase in the dollar value of non-USD assets [6] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize reserve structure, respond to global uncertainties, and capitalize on the long-term upward trend in gold prices [7][9] - China's gold reserves are significantly lower than the world average, and increasing gold holdings can enhance the diversification and risk resistance of foreign exchange reserves [7] - The central bank's strategy reflects a strong recognition of gold's strategic value, aiming to maintain economic stability amid complex global conditions [7][9] Global Central Bank Trends - Despite the ongoing accumulation of gold, the monthly increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China has been decreasing, indicating a strategy to control purchase costs and optimize reserve structure [9] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 72% of global central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next five years, while 73% expect to reduce their dollar reserves [10] - The current geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors are driving central banks to view gold as a strategic asset for risk mitigation [10]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3174 trillion, marking a $32.2 billion increase from the end of May, with a growth rate of 0.98% [2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] - The increase in reserves in June was influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [2] - The US dollar index fell by 2.5% to its lowest point in three years at 96.9, leading to a collective appreciation of non-USD currencies [2][3] Group 2: Asset Valuation and Market Impact - The rise in foreign exchange reserves was supported by a 1.0% increase in the USD-hedged global bond index and a 5.0% increase in the S&P 500 stock index [2] - The valuation of foreign reserves was positively impacted by the overall increase in global financial asset prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that China's foreign exchange reserves are at a moderately sufficient level, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and mitigating potential external shocks [3] - Factors such as steady economic growth and resilient foreign trade are expected to help maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 4: Gold Reserves - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces to 7.39 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank [4] - The importance of gold as a reliable asset is increasing due to the normalization of global geopolitical risks and the diminishing reliability of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar [4] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against single currency risks and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [4]