Core Insights - The seminar organized by Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute focused on the current real estate market and policy analysis, emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends and Challenges - The real estate industry is urged to align with national strategic goals and to view its positioning through a new lens, considering the macro environment and market risks [1] - The industry is facing challenges that require a clear understanding of development trends, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" serving as a key guideline for mitigating risks [1] - There is a consensus among industry leaders on the need for innovation and breakthroughs during the transformation process [2] Group 2: Development Models and Strategies - The core of achieving high-quality development lies in constructing a new development model, which includes transitioning from expansion to improving existing stock, shifting product concepts from merely providing housing to enhancing living quality, and balancing sales and rental markets [2] - Companies are encouraged to reshape their development models, building products, and corporate DNA to embrace long-termism and collaborative growth [2] Group 3: Cross-Industry Integration - The importance of cross-industry integration was highlighted, with examples such as the "West Shanghai Digital Incubation Base" project that combines various sectors to revitalize existing assets [3] - The need for national-level financial institutions to address inventory issues and improve market supply-demand relationships was emphasized [3] Group 4: Operational Improvements and Financial Strategies - Companies are advised to enhance operational capabilities, adopt market-driven cost management, and explore asset securitization through REITs [4] - The industry is encouraged to move away from high-leverage models and ensure that financial tools serve to empower the real economy, focusing on quality development that benefits the public [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee has marked a significant shift in the approach to real estate, emphasizing the need for high-quality development within the framework of improving people's livelihoods, indicating a strategic integration of real estate with national development goals [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Developments - The Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué is the first to explicitly mention real estate, integrating it into the broader context of improving living standards and promoting common prosperity [2]. - The central bank has reiterated its commitment to maintaining financial stability and addressing risks in the real estate market for two consecutive weeks [5]. - Local governments have been actively releasing policies to stabilize the market, with 13 provinces and cities announcing measures to support the real estate sector [6][11]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - High-quality development in real estate is seen as a crucial pillar for stabilizing the macro economy and driving sustainable growth through consumption upgrades and effective investment [3][4]. - Establishing a comprehensive housing supply system is essential for addressing urgent public needs, thereby enhancing the quality of life and social cohesion [3]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The focus on high-quality development represents a fundamental shift for the real estate industry, moving away from reliance on scale expansion towards quality enhancement, aiming for a more resilient and sustainable growth phase [4]. - Policies promoting "good housing" and ensuring affordable housing are increasingly being emphasized, with various local initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and accessibility [7][12]. Group 4: Local Initiatives and Innovations - Cities like Hangzhou are implementing innovative subsidy models, such as "home purchase + consumption vouchers," to stimulate both real estate sales and consumer spending [8][11]. - Specific measures in cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou are aimed at enhancing the quality of construction and service in the real estate sector, indicating a trend towards higher standards in housing development [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [2][27]. Core Insights - The recent decline in real estate transactions in major cities is noted, with the October 23rd communiqué from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizing the promotion of high-quality real estate development, which is beneficial for quality real estate companies [2][27]. - New home transactions in 30 major cities for the 43rd week of 2025 totaled 2.04 million square meters, down 4.77% from the previous week and down 20.0% year-on-year [28]. - First-tier cities sold 580,000 square meters, up 7.0% from the previous week but down 27% year-on-year, while second-tier cities sold 990,000 square meters, down 4.39% from the previous week and down 13% year-on-year [28]. - The cumulative sales from October 1-23, 2025, in 30 cities reached 4.90 million square meters, reflecting a 0.79% increase from September 2025 but a 22% decrease year-on-year [28]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 43rd week of 2025, new home sales in first-tier cities were 580,000 square meters, second-tier cities 990,000 square meters, and third-tier cities 470,000 square meters, showing varying trends in sales [28]. - Cumulatively, from October 1-23, 2025, first-tier cities sold 1.35 million square meters, second-tier cities 2.33 million square meters, and third-tier cities 1.23 million square meters, with year-on-year declines noted across all tiers [28]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities totaled 2.25 million square meters, down 5.32% from the previous week and down 16.98% year-on-year [29]. - First-tier cities sold 853,000 square meters, second-tier cities 961,000 square meters, and third-tier cities 432,000 square meters, with all showing declines both week-on-week and year-on-year [29]. Land Transactions - In the 43rd week of 2025, land supply was 15.95 million square meters, with transactions at 11.48 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.39 [30]. - Cumulative land supply in 100 major cities this year is 618.76 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year, while cumulative land transfer revenue reached RMB 1.68 trillion, up 2.77% year-on-year [30]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was reported at 22.45 months, indicating a rise from the previous month [31]. - The saleable area was 317.44 million square meters, reflecting a 1.22% increase from the previous month but a 4.36% decrease year-on-year [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current challenges [3][28]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in the real estate sector, linking it closely to price stability. It notes that as of September 2025, no cities among the 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month increase in housing prices, with the price gap between new and second-hand homes widening [3][28]. - The central government's focus on real estate is expected to increase over the next five years, with new housing products improving in line with demand trends and outdated restrictive policies being lifted [3][30]. - The report highlights a competitive landscape where demand and resources are increasingly directed towards leading cities and blue-chip developers, suggesting that strong regional development will continue to stimulate market vitality [3][31]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1) Development: A-Shares - China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Gemdale; H-Shares - China Overseas Land & Investment 2) Commercial and residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group 3) Property management: Onewo, China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property Services, China Merchants Property 4) Cultural tourism: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town [3][28]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the share of core cities in the real estate market is expected to increase significantly by 2025, with concentrated land supply cities accounting for 40% of national sales in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][31]. - It discusses the government's strategy to optimize regional economic layouts and promote coordinated development, which is anticipated to enhance market vitality [3][30].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the promotion of high-quality development in the real estate sector, marking a significant shift in policy direction [1][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Shift - The upcoming five years are designated as a period for high-quality development in real estate, indicating a fundamental change in the approach to the sector [2]. - Real estate is now framed within the context of "guaranteeing and improving people's livelihoods" and "common prosperity," highlighting its importance in national strategies [3][4]. - The focus has shifted from merely being a tool for economic stimulus to a key component in promoting consumption, investment, and urbanization [4][18]. Group 2: Development Framework - The concept of "high-quality development" is multi-dimensional and systematic, requiring a new model for the real estate sector [8][12]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined a framework for this new model, emphasizing urban development and renewal [8][10]. - The core objective is to ensure that the real estate sector provides "good housing" for the populace, which is seen as essential for high-quality development [13][14]. Group 3: Implementation Strategies - Four main strategies are proposed to achieve high-quality development: 1. Improve the housing supply system centered on "guarantee + market" to meet diverse housing needs [10]. 2. Establish a mechanism linking "people, housing, land, and finance" to balance supply and demand effectively [10]. 3. Reform the real estate development, financing, and sales systems to enhance efficiency [11]. 4. Focus on developing safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, including the renovation of old houses [11]. Group 4: Future Trends - The real estate sector is expected to undergo significant changes, transitioning from "incremental development" to "stock optimization" and "precise supplementation" [19]. - A collaborative development pattern between urban and rural areas is anticipated, promoting investment and consumption cycles [21]. - The balance between public welfare and market dynamics will be reinforced, ensuring that housing remains accessible while stimulating market vitality [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The increase in second-hand housing transaction area month-on-month is driving high-quality development in the real estate sector. The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process. The report anticipates further stabilization of the real estate market under the influence of various supportive policies [5][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Initiatives - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes promoting high-quality employment, improving income distribution, and advancing high-quality development in real estate [6][14]. 2. Sales Performance - In the 43rd week of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 68 major cities decreased by 29% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month, totaling 250 million square meters. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 96.9 million square meters, down 12% year-on-year. Conversely, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 20 cities was 202 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 16% [7][19][37]. 3. Investment Trends - In the 43rd week of 2025, the planned land area launched in 100 major cities was 27.05 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20.16 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The transaction premium rate was 2%, with first-tier cities seeing a 215% increase in land area transactions [42][46]. 4. Financing Developments - The issuance of domestic credit bonds reached 15.66 billion yuan in the 43rd week of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 192% and a month-on-month increase of 125%. The cumulative issuance of credit bonds is 337.5 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [52][56]. 5. Market Performance - The real estate index rose by 1.51% during the week of October 20-24, 2025, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 3.24%. The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the real estate sector, noting significant gains for certain companies [57][62].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周（10.18-10.24）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.5%，在各板 块中位列第 18；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.2%，在各板块中位列第 8。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为 +2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+3.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+3.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为-1.7%和-1%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周（10.18-10.24）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 1521 万㎡，单周环比 52%，单周同比 -14%，平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 33812 万㎡，累计同比-9.9%；年初至今，中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、招商蛇口的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.18-10.24)47 个城市商品房销售 429 万方，成交量环比+4%，同比-13%，整体处于季节性低位；9 月新房 售价环比-0.4%，环比跌幅略有扩大，同比-2.7%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看： 一线城市周环比+10%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, despite a decline in sales data [6][13] - The report highlights a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing sales across major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [4][31] - The issuance of credit bonds by real estate companies has seen a substantial increase, suggesting a shift towards more stable financial practices among leading firms [5][6] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 1.51%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 3.24%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [3][11] Industry Fundamentals - In the week of October 17-23, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 27,009 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% [4][21] - The total transaction area for new homes was 2.773 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 18.9% [21] - For second-hand homes, 19,924 units were sold, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a total area of 192.6 million square meters sold [31] Land Market Analysis - Land supply increased significantly, with 27.053 million square meters supplied, a year-on-year growth of 89.7% [5] - The average land price was 1,731 yuan per square meter, up 4.3% year-on-year [5] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 22.255 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year increase of 197.93% and a month-on-month increase of 305.37% [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, which are better positioned to navigate market fluctuations [6] - Property management companies are also expected to benefit from a recovery in market demand, with recommendations to monitor firms like China Resources Land and Poly Property [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current status and trends of public REITs in China, indicating that they are entering a new era and may assist real estate companies in strategic transformation [5] - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, proposing new models and focusing on "good housing" as a fundamental aspect [7] - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a significant increase in high-priced listings, although overall transaction volumes are expected to remain volatile [7] Group 2 - Industry data reveals a narrowing decline in housing prices and a year-on-year increase in construction completions, suggesting a stabilization in the industry, although further efforts are needed [7] - The land supply and demand scale remains low, with a slight increase in land transaction volume and a premium rate of 1.6%, indicating that only a few quality plots are experiencing localized heat [9] - A joint statement from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments outlines a top-level approach to urban development, focusing on resilient city infrastructure [10] Group 3 - CIFI Construction Management expanded its project portfolio by 17 new projects in Q3 2025, while New Town Construction Management signed contracts for over 570,000 square meters [11] - The article highlights the successful sales of lighthouse strategic benchmark projects by CIFI, with expectations for several new projects to enter the market in Q4, indicating potential future growth [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating that the industry is currently in an adjustment phase and will focus on achieving higher living standards during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] Group 1: Real Estate Development Strategy - The real estate industry will focus on the construction of "good houses" and urban renewal as key strategies, aiming to create new demand through new supply [1] - The industry is expected to enhance risk prevention by strengthening regulation throughout the entire process of real estate development, financing, sales, and exit [1] - A project "white list" system will be implemented to ensure the delivery of commodity housing projects, with a focus on promoting the sale of existing houses to mitigate delivery risks [1] Group 2: Service Enhancement in Real Estate - Future real estate development should shift from a focus on construction to providing services throughout the entire lifecycle of properties, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and software aspects [2] - The property service sector is seen as having significant growth potential, which has been largely underestimated, and efforts should be made to improve service levels in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and household services [2] - The implementation of residential service enhancement actions is encouraged to provide better living services for residents and expand new growth opportunities within the industry [2]