Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience significant differentiation in property values over the next five years, with only high-quality assets likely to retain value, while most properties may face depreciation [1]. Market Trends - The real estate market has been undergoing unprecedented adjustments since late 2021, with national property prices dropping approximately 30% over three years, and some areas experiencing price halving [3][5]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have also been affected, with secondary housing prices declining for 29 consecutive months [3]. Expert Opinions - Notable figures such as Wang Jianlin and Cao Dewang share a consensus that no real estate market can sustain prosperity for over 50 years, indicating a nearing saturation point in the market [5]. - Cao Dewang has compared properties to limited-value materials, advising caution in holding excess real estate due to potential future difficulties in selling or renting [5]. - Economist Ma Guangyuan believes the era of real estate as the best investment has ended, suggesting a return to housing's primary function as a living space, leading to more rational pricing [5]. Future Value Predictions - The future value of properties will vary significantly based on location and city, with predictions indicating that properties in third and fourth-tier cities could see declines of 20%-30% [7]. - For example, a property currently valued at 1.5 million yuan may only be worth between 1.05 million to 1.2 million yuan in seven to eight years, with even steeper declines possible in less desirable areas [7]. Demographic Changes - The primary home-buying demographic in China is projected to decrease by 61 million by 2030, alongside a significant drop in newborns, leading to a potential reduction in housing demand by over 900 million square meters [9]. Structural Differentiation - While most properties are expected to follow a long-term downward trend, there will be structural differentiation in the market, with certain types of properties facing greater depreciation risks [11]. - Properties lacking educational support, poorly located, or with inadequate infrastructure are likely to be more adversely affected [13]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of 6 million affordable housing units in the next five years will likely divert demand away from the market for commercial housing, further impacting property values [13]. - The return of housing to its fundamental purpose may alleviate the financial burden of high property prices for many families, allowing for more reasonable housing costs [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **Hong Kong retail market** and the **Chinese land market** in 2025, highlighting recovery trends and structural characteristics in both sectors [1][5]. Hong Kong Retail Market - In June 2024, Hong Kong's retail sales achieved positive growth for the first time since February, with a year-on-year increase of **4.5%**. Non-essential goods consumption grew by **3.5%**, outpacing essential goods consumption by **2.6 percentage points** [1][2]. - The retail market showed signs of recovery, with May 2025 retail sales reaching **31.3 billion HKD**, a **2.4%** year-on-year increase, marking a **4.5 percentage point** improvement in month-on-month growth [2]. - Despite a low rental index for shops, increased leasing activities by overseas funds suggest that core office spaces may be nearing a bottom, presenting potential investment opportunities [1][2]. - Local consumption behavior in Hong Kong has not been permanently affected by residents shopping in mainland cities, indicating resilience in the local market for essential goods [4]. Chinese Land Market - The Chinese land market saw a **20%** year-on-year increase in transaction value in the first half of 2025, following three years of decline, driven by the release of quality land in core cities and active land acquisition by real estate companies [1][5]. - The average land price reached a new high since 2014, increasing by **33%** year-on-year, with a premium rate of **10%**, up **6 percentage points** from the previous year, indicating intense competition for quality land [1][5]. - The land market exhibited structural characteristics, with significant differences between first/second-tier cities and third-tier cities. The latter still faced high auction failure rates [3][6]. - The top 100 real estate companies showed a recovery in land acquisition, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market, accounting for **83%** of land purchases among the top firms [11]. Investment Strategies and Trends - Real estate companies are focusing on core first and second-tier cities, with significant investments in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where the top 10 firms secured **1.6 trillion CNY** in land [13]. - There is a notable trend of companies seeking opportunities in non-core cities due to intense competition in major markets, with some firms exploring structural opportunities in cities like Foshan and Dongguan [13]. - The land market is currently in a state of structural recovery, with improved land quality and increased government willingness to attract investments. However, competition remains fierce for quality land, leading to a "stronger getting stronger" dynamic [14]. Additional Insights - The land auction failure rate has significantly decreased in first and second-tier cities, while third-tier cities continue to struggle with high failure rates [6]. - The average land plot size is decreasing, and the floor area ratio is gradually declining, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable urban development practices [6]. - The premium rates for land in key cities have surged, with some areas seeing rates increase from **1%** to **31%** for the highest premium plots [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong retail and Chinese land markets.

Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to implement urban renewal actions and improve the real estate market stability through various measures, including enhancing high-quality housing supply and optimizing existing property acquisition policies [1] Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since September 2024, a series of monetary policy tools have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a noticeable increase in market activity, with a total of 3.83 million residential transactions in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The goal of stabilizing the real estate market has been initially achieved, although the foundation remains fragile [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Market - There is a significant divergence in the real estate market across different cities, with core cities experiencing a higher proportion of residential transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, while third-tier cities see minimal activity [2] - The mismatch between land resources and population distribution over the past two decades has led to a tight supply-demand relationship in major cities, while many smaller cities face oversupply issues [2] Group 3: Changes in Transaction Types - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has increased, while new housing transactions have decreased, with new commodity housing transfer registrations down by 12.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4] - The implementation of the "mortgage transfer" system has stimulated second-hand housing transactions, with 71,000 cases processed in Q1 2025, involving an amount of 71.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 163% increase in monthly average processing volume [4] Group 4: Divergence Between Residential and Commercial Properties - While the residential market shows signs of stabilization, the office and commercial property sectors continue to struggle, with average rental prices for office spaces in major cities declining by 0.73% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The oversupply of office spaces is linked to local governments prioritizing industrial and commercial land use over residential land, exacerbating the mismatch in land resources across different industries [6]