三年时间，全国房子普跌30%左右，一些三四线郊区盘和环京房甚至出现腰斩。百城二手住宅价格连续29个月下跌。 曾经只涨不跌的神话破灭，很多人开始怀疑，现在手上价值150万的房子，到我2030年还能值多少钱？ 如今算下来，98年房改至今已经有20多年了，正接近饱和阶段。 先直接上答案，5年后，房产价值将经历深度分化，马光远和王健林这些大佬的看法一致，除了优质的资产外，以后大部分房子可能都难逃贬值的命运。 这几年的楼市变化大家是有目共睹，从2021年底开始，楼市就进入细菌前所未有的调整周期，先是从三四线郊区开始，紧接着一步步蔓延到了北上广深大 城市， 有意思的是，知名企业家曹德旺、经济学家马光远、地产大佬王健林，甚至首富李嘉诚，都对未来的判断出奇一致。 关于房子未来的趋势，王健林曾直言不讳：全世界没有一个地方的房地产能持续繁荣超过50年。 曹德旺也有类似的观点，他将房子比做水泥砖头，强调其本身价值有限，甚至当年还再三劝诫自己的妹妹赶紧把多余的房子卖掉，未来可能面临既卖不掉 又租不出去的困境。 而经济学家马光远也直言，房地产作为最佳投资品的时代已经终结，他认为未来房产将回归居住属性，价格也会变得更加合理。 如果你现在 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **Hong Kong retail market** and the **Chinese land market** in 2025, highlighting recovery trends and structural characteristics in both sectors [1][5]. Hong Kong Retail Market - In June 2024, Hong Kong's retail sales achieved positive growth for the first time since February, with a year-on-year increase of **4.5%**. Non-essential goods consumption grew by **3.5%**, outpacing essential goods consumption by **2.6 percentage points** [1][2]. - The retail market showed signs of recovery, with May 2025 retail sales reaching **31.3 billion HKD**, a **2.4%** year-on-year increase, marking a **4.5 percentage point** improvement in month-on-month growth [2]. - Despite a low rental index for shops, increased leasing activities by overseas funds suggest that core office spaces may be nearing a bottom, presenting potential investment opportunities [1][2]. - Local consumption behavior in Hong Kong has not been permanently affected by residents shopping in mainland cities, indicating resilience in the local market for essential goods [4]. Chinese Land Market - The Chinese land market saw a **20%** year-on-year increase in transaction value in the first half of 2025, following three years of decline, driven by the release of quality land in core cities and active land acquisition by real estate companies [1][5]. - The average land price reached a new high since 2014, increasing by **33%** year-on-year, with a premium rate of **10%**, up **6 percentage points** from the previous year, indicating intense competition for quality land [1][5]. - The land market exhibited structural characteristics, with significant differences between first/second-tier cities and third-tier cities. The latter still faced high auction failure rates [3][6]. - The top 100 real estate companies showed a recovery in land acquisition, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market, accounting for **83%** of land purchases among the top firms [11]. Investment Strategies and Trends - Real estate companies are focusing on core first and second-tier cities, with significant investments in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where the top 10 firms secured **1.6 trillion CNY** in land [13]. - There is a notable trend of companies seeking opportunities in non-core cities due to intense competition in major markets, with some firms exploring structural opportunities in cities like Foshan and Dongguan [13]. - The land market is currently in a state of structural recovery, with improved land quality and increased government willingness to attract investments. However, competition remains fierce for quality land, leading to a "stronger getting stronger" dynamic [14]. Additional Insights - The land auction failure rate has significantly decreased in first and second-tier cities, while third-tier cities continue to struggle with high failure rates [6]. - The average land plot size is decreasing, and the floor area ratio is gradually declining, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable urban development practices [6]. - The premium rates for land in key cities have surged, with some areas seeing rates increase from **1%** to **31%** for the highest premium plots [5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong retail and Chinese land markets.

Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to implement urban renewal actions and improve the real estate market stability through various measures, including enhancing high-quality housing supply and optimizing existing property acquisition policies [1] Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since September 2024, a series of monetary policy tools have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a noticeable increase in market activity, with a total of 3.83 million residential transactions in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The goal of stabilizing the real estate market has been initially achieved, although the foundation remains fragile [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Market - There is a significant divergence in the real estate market across different cities, with core cities experiencing a higher proportion of residential transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, while third-tier cities see minimal activity [2] - The mismatch between land resources and population distribution over the past two decades has led to a tight supply-demand relationship in major cities, while many smaller cities face oversupply issues [2] Group 3: Changes in Transaction Types - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has increased, while new housing transactions have decreased, with new commodity housing transfer registrations down by 12.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4] - The implementation of the "mortgage transfer" system has stimulated second-hand housing transactions, with 71,000 cases processed in Q1 2025, involving an amount of 71.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 163% increase in monthly average processing volume [4] Group 4: Divergence Between Residential and Commercial Properties - While the residential market shows signs of stabilization, the office and commercial property sectors continue to struggle, with average rental prices for office spaces in major cities declining by 0.73% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The oversupply of office spaces is linked to local governments prioritizing industrial and commercial land use over residential land, exacerbating the mismatch in land resources across different industries [6]