聚酯产业链
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聚酯数据日报-20250507
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 05:34
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - PTA market: Due to intensive PX maintenance, the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. With the maintenance of domestic PTA plants, the PTA basis has strengthened significantly. The supply contraction of PTA and PX has led to a positive spread in the market. PTA is in a de - stocking cycle, and if polyester inventory remains strong, PTA inventory may continue to decline in June. Polyester factories are less likely to cut production [2]. - Ethylene glycol market: Trump's tariff policy has disrupted global trade, but the impact of ethane seems to have been minimized. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China remains at over 700,000 tons. The load recovery of coal - based ethylene glycol plants has pressured the market, but coal prices are rising. With the upcoming maintenance of mainstream ethylene glycol plants, it will enter a de - stocking phase [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price dropped from 471.1 yuan/barrel on April 30, 2025, to 458.9 yuan/barrel on May 6, 2025, a decrease of 12.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC price increased from 1010.5 yuan/ton to 1027.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 16.66 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.2952 to 1.3080, an increase of 0.0128 [2]. - CFR China PX price remained unchanged unchanged unchanged unchanged unchanged remained unchanged remained remained remained remained unchanged remained remained unchanged at 748 yuan [2]. - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4434 yuan/ton to 4362 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4555 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; PTA现货加工费 decreased from 473.3 yuan/ton to 403.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69.7 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 367.3 yuan/ton to 295.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.7 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4155 yuan/ton to 4130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 price dropped from 4216 yuan/ton to 4190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX开工率 increased from 73.53% to 78.18%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points; PTA开工率 decreased from 75.74% to 73.93%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points; MEG开工率 decreased from 60.65% to 58.80%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points; 聚酯负荷 remained almost unchanged at 89.93% - 89.96%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Product Data - For polyester filament: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6420 yuan/ton; POY现金流 increased from - 137 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 6610 yuan/ton; FDY现金流 increased from - 447 yuan/ton to - 374 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 7695 yuan/ton; DTY现金流 increased from - 62 yuan/ton to 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton; 长丝产销 decreased from 38% to 30%, a decrease of 8 percentage points [2]. - For polyester staple fiber: 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped from 6410 yuan/ton to 6385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; 涤短现金流 increased from 203 yuan/ton to 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton; 短纤产销 increased from 68% to 73%, an increase of 5 percentage points [2]. - For polyester chips: 半光切片 price dropped from 5610 yuan/ton to 5540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; 切片现金流 increased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; 切片产销 decreased from 109% to 37%, a decrease of 72 percentage points [2].
桐昆股份(601233):Q1盈利环比改善,聚酯链静待回暖
HTSC· 2025-04-30 06:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 12.45 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of RMB 19.42 billion, a decrease of 8% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 610 million, an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter and 213% year-on-year [1]. - The polyester chain is expected to recover due to a slowdown in industry capacity growth and a potential improvement in domestic demand [1][3]. - The report highlights that the main raw material prices have decreased, which has helped improve the company's gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved a gross margin of 7.7%, up 1% year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s main products, POY, FDY, and DTY, had sales volumes of 1.81 million tons, 450,000 tons, and 240,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +8%, and +4% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to improve as domestic demand recovers and textile exports increase, alongside a more favorable supply structure due to reduced capacity growth [3]. - New projects are progressing as planned, with significant investments in expanding the polyester and fine chemical industry chain [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 2 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18 [4][10]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, based on its high proportion of polyester business [4].
桐昆股份(601233):24年净利改善,在建项目有序推进
HTSC· 2025-04-27 09:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 12.45 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, representing a 51% increase year-on-year [1][5]. - The polyester industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand recovery and improved textile and apparel exports, alongside a slowdown in production capacity growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 101.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.2 billion (RMB 930 million after deducting non-recurring items), marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 25.3 billion, with a net profit of RMB 200 million, reflecting a significant increase of 283% year-on-year [1][2]. Sales and Margins - The sales volume for POY, FDY, and DTY in 2024 was 9.68 million tons, 2.14 million tons, and 1.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +23%, +46%, and +13% [2]. - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and remained flat, respectively, leading to a slight decline in overall gross margin to 4.6% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to see a recovery driven by domestic demand and improved export conditions, with a favorable supply-demand balance expected as production capacity growth slows [3][4]. - The average market prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. Capacity and Projects - The company currently has a polyester polymerization capacity of 13 million tons per year and a polyester filament capacity of 13.5 million tons per year, holding an 18% market share in the domestic polyester filament market [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved in the Fujian and Anhui projects, expected to be completed in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, respectively [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.99 billion, RMB 2.38 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to a slow recovery in the polyester industry [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18, respectively, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [5].