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能源化工期权策略早报-20250904
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkalis. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option - Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details like the latest price, price change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 484, with a price drop of 8 and a decline rate of 1.67% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.61 with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.005, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.16 with a change of 1.62 [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamentals are healthy with OPEC's supply restraint. The market shows a short - term upward resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a wide - range weak oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory shows a mixed trend. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production capacity utilization rate shows different trends. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load is rising. The market shows a rebound resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate decreases in most regions. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is decreasing. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - The port inventory increases, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market shows a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].
全品种价差日报-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:04
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The reports present a comprehensive overview of price data for various commodities, including metals, agricultural products, energy, and chemical products, along with their corresponding futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 2898 (converted price: 6517), and the futures price is 6020 with a basis of 172 and a basis rate of 68.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3138, and the futures price has a change of 5.48% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3389, and the futures price has a change of 7.49% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 846, and the futures price has a change of - 6.44% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port has a change of 8.35%, and the futures price has a change of - 5.80% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1145, and the futures price has a change of - 71 [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper (CU2510)**: The SMM spot price is 79690 with a change of - 0.37%, and the futures price is 79395. The basis is 295 and the basis rate is 19.37% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20770, and the futures price is 20780 with a basis of 10 and a basis rate of 0.05% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM weighted average price is 3242, and the futures price is 3184 with a change of - 0.69% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 22395, and the futures price is 22240 with a basis of - 155 and a basis rate of 17.29% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 269700, and the futures price is 269570 with a basis of 130 and a basis rate of 52.08% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 120350, and the futures price is 120310 with a basis of 40 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: The price of 304/2B:2*1240*C at Wuxi Hongwang is 13270, and the futures price is 12880 with a change of 3.03% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 82500, and the futures price is 79380 with a change of 3.93% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The SMM future oxygen - passing Si5530 average price is 9350, and the futures price is 8675 with a basis of 675 and a basis rate of 7.78% [1]. - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: The spot price is 5648 (converted price: 5680), and the futures price has a basis of - 32 and a basis rate of - 0.56% [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 3117, and the futures price is 3010 with a change of 18.90% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8610, and the futures price is 8488 with a change of 1.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9582, and the futures price has a change of 0.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of common rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2547, and the futures price is 2570 with a change of 0.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9891, and the futures price is 10010 with a change of 1.20% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port is 2260, and the futures price is 2154 with a change of 8.83% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2700, and the futures price is 2481 [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2511)**: The ex - factory price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan is 13910, and the futures price is 13750 with a change of - 1.15% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3160, and the futures price is 3021 with a change of 4.60% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 15100, and the futures price is 14120 with a change of 6.94% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of sugar at Liuzhou Station is 6030, and the futures price is 5688 [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 8600, and the futures price is 8141 with a change of 5.64% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 8300, and the futures price is 11410 with a change of - 27.26% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **P - Xylene (PX511)**: The spot price at China's main ports (CFR, converted to RMB) is 7037.3, and the futures price is 6970 with a basis of 67.3 and a basis rate of 0.97% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (intermediate price) in East China is 4860, and the futures price is 4862 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (intermediate price) in East China is 4555, and the futures price is 4509 with a change of 1.02% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The market price (mainstream price) in the East China market is 6596, and the futures price is 6585 with a change of - 0.17% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2510)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) in East China, China is 7330, and the futures price is 7355 with a change of 0.34% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) in Jiangsu, China is 2297.5, and the futures price is 2424 with a change of - 5.22% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) in Shandong is 1745, and the futures price is 1700 with a change of 1.80% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The tax - included self - pick - up price (intermediate price) in Shandong is 7290, and the futures price is 7423 with a change of - 1.79% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The tax - included self - pick - up price (intermediate price) in Zhejiang is 7010, and the futures price is 7074 with a change of - 0.90% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) in Changzhou, China is 4770, and the futures price is 5047 with a change of - 5.49% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) in Shandong is 2732, and the futures price is 2687.5 with a change of 1.82% [1]. - **LPG (PG2510)**: The market price in Guangzhou is 4528, and the futures price is 4447 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The market price (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3520, and the futures price is 3512 with a change of 0.23% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China is 11900, and the futures price is 12010 with a change of - 0.92% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe is 1191, and the futures price is 1044 with a change of - 14.08% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe is 1226, and the futures price is 1337 with a change of 5.46% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai is 15905, and the futures price is 14850 with a change of - 7.10% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFE**: The spot price is 4469.2, and the futures price is 4474.6 with a basis of 5.4 and a basis rate of 0.12% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2992, and the futures price is 2989.9 with a basis of 2.1 and a basis rate of 0.07% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6951.9, and the futures price is 6909.6 with a basis of - 42.3 and a basis rate of - 0.61% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 7477.7, and the futures price is 7412.2 with a basis of - 65.5 and a basis rate of - 0.88% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: The spot price is 102.39, and the futures price is 102.36 with a basis of - 0.03 and a basis rate of - 0.03% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: The spot price is 105.52, and the futures price is 105.1 with a basis of 0.42 [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: The spot price is 107.93, and the futures price is 105.73 with a basis of 0.39% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: The spot price is 132.45, and the futures price is 116.72 with a basis of 0.77% [1].
全品种价差日报-20250825
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 15:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5648, up 6 (0.11%) from the previous day, with a historical quantile of 59.40%. The spot price is 5832, with a basis of 188 and a basis rate of 3.22% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 6020, with a spot price of 6517, a basis of 497, and a basis rate of 8.25% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2730, up 232 (9.29%), with a historical quantile of 93.50%. The spot price is 2498 [1] - Rebar (RB2510): Futures price is 3280, up 161 (5.16%), with a historical quantile of 66.20%. The spot price is 3119 [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510): Futures price is 3400, up 39 (1.16%), with a historical quantile of 34.60%. The spot price is 3361 [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 832, up 62 (8.05%), with a historical quantile of 50.10%. The spot price is 770 [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1624, down 54 (3.24%), with a historical quantile of 32.01%. The spot price is 1679 [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1145, down 17 (1.46%), with a historical quantile of 22.20%. The spot price is 1162 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Futures price is 78830, up 140 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 59.79%. The spot price is 78690 [1] - Aluminum (AL2510): Futures price is 20710, up 80 (0.39%), with a historical quantile of 72.50%. The spot price is 20630 [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 3245, up 107 (3.41%), with a historical quantile of 61.23%. The spot price is 3138 [1] - Zinc (ZN2510): Futures price is 22130, down 145 (0.65%), with a historical quantile of 19.16%. The spot price is 22275 [1] - Tin (SN2509): Futures price is 266000, up 70 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 49.79%. The spot price is 265930 [1] - Nickel (NISE10): Futures price is 119650, up 40 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 57.29%. The spot price is 119610 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2510): Information about price changes and historical quantiles is not clearly presented in a standard format, but the spot price is 13170 and the futures price is 12750 [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 83900, up 4940 (6.26%), with a historical quantile of 90.52%. The spot price is 78960 [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Futures price is 771.6, down 1.8 (0.23%), with a historical quantile of 47.30%. The spot price is 773.4 [1] - Silver (AG2510): Futures price is 9182.0, down 10.0 (0.11%), with a historical quantile of 64.90%. The spot price is 9192.0 [1] Agricultural Products - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2240, up 65 (2.99%), with a historical quantile of 77.10%. The spot price is 2175 [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 6030, up 360 (6.35%), with a historical quantile of 66.00%. The spot price is 5670 [1] - Soybean Meal (M2601): Futures price is 2980, down 108 (3.50%), with a historical quantile of 18.80%. The spot price is 3088 [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2601): Futures price is 8540, up 82 (0.97%), with a historical quantile of 9.40%. The spot price is 8458 [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9490, down 102 (1.06%), with a historical quantile of 4.60%. The spot price is 9592 [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2540, down 3 (0.12%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 2543 [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol601): Futures price is 10010, up 120 (1.21%), with a historical quantile of 48.30%. The spot price is 9890 [1] - Eggs (JD2510): Futures price is 3220, up 187 (6.17%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 3033 [1] - Apples (AP510): Futures price is 8600, up 506 (6.25%), with a historical quantile of 40.70%. The spot price is 8094 [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 14030, up 1075 (7.66%), with a historical quantile of 69.50%. The spot price is 12955 [1] Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX511): Futures price is 6966, up 78.9 (1.13%), with a historical quantile of 47.40%. The spot price is 7044.9 [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510): Futures price is 6614, down 14 (0.21%), with a historical quantile of 40.10%. The spot price is 6600 [1] - Styrene (EB2510): Futures price is 7378, down 3 (0.04%), with a historical quantile of 25.60%. The spot price is 7375 [1] - Urea (UR601): Futures price is 1739, up 1 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 12.40%. The spot price is 1740 [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 7038, up 12 (0.17%), with a historical quantile of 26.10%. The spot price is 7050 [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4740, down 279 (5.56%), with a historical quantile of 10.00%. The spot price is 5019 [1] - LPG (PG2510): Futures price is 4478, up 91 (2.07%), with a historical quantile of 36.50%. The spot price is 4387 [1] - Asphalt (BU2510): Futures price is 3483, up 47 (1.35%), with a historical quantile of 61.50%. The spot price is 3530 [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2510): Futures price is 11660, up 240 (2.06%), with a historical quantile of 55.20%. The spot price is 11900 [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1173, down 113 (9.66%), with a historical quantile of 25.00%. The spot price is 1060 [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1326, down 100 (8.16%), with a historical quantile of 5.88%. The spot price is 1226 [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4868, down 3 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 51.30%. The spot price is 4865 [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4474, up 36 (0.80%), with a historical quantile of 71.90%. The spot price is 4510 [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2405, down 110 (4.57%), with a historical quantile of 10.20%. The spot price is 2295 [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7380, down 90 (1.22%), with a historical quantile of 4.20%. The spot price is 7290 [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15625, down 975 (6.66%), with a historical quantile of 32.29%. The spot price is 14650 [1] Others - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 9250, up 505 (5.77%), with a historical quantile of 34.75%. The spot price is 8745 [1] - Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - IC2509.CFE: Futures price is 6822.8, down 12.4 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 64.70% [1] - IH2509.CFE: Futures price is 2942.0, up 13.4 (0.46%), with a historical quantile of 98.30% [1] - IM2509.CFE: Futures price is 7348.6, down 14.3 (0.20%), with a historical quantile of 95.30% [1] - 10 - Year Bond (T2509): Futures price is 107.66, up 0.57 (0.53%), with a historical quantile of 75.80% [1] - 2 - Year Bond (TS2509): Futures price is 100.26, up 0.03 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 35.30% [1] - 30 - Year Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 131.64, up 1.01 (0.87%), with a historical quantile of 98.50% [1] - 5 - Year Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 99.20, up 0.10 (0.10%), with a historical quantile of 41.90% [1]
荣盛石化股价上涨3.08% 石油石化行业资金净流出居前
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:08
截至2025年8月21日收盘,荣盛石化股价报10.03元,较前一交易日上涨0.30元。当日成交量为101.29万 手,成交金额达10.17亿元,振幅为4.52%。 荣盛石化主要从事石化化纤相关业务,公司产品涵盖精对苯二甲酸、聚酯切片、涤纶长丝等多个领域。 作为国内大型石化企业,其业务贯穿石油炼化至化纤生产全产业链。 从资金流向来看,荣盛石化当日主力资金净流出10134.12万元,近五个交易日累计净流出7181.01万元。 在石油石化行业中,该公司资金净流出规模位列第三,仅次于广汇能源和洲际油气。 风险提示:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 来源:金融界 ...
能源化工期权策略早报-20250815
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overview of Underlying Futures Markets - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR indicators for different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset's market and the turning points of the market [5]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the maximum open interests of call and put options [6]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility indicators of different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as historical volatility and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7]. 3.5. Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1. Crude Oil Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Last week, US crude oil inventories decreased due to increased exports, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The market showed a pattern of short - term rebound受阻 and facing pressure [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and volatile market. The pressure level was 600 and the support level was 490 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2. LPG Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Factory inventories showed a slight decrease, and port inventories were at a high level and fluctuating. The market was short - term bearish [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options remained at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level was 5400 and the support level was 4200 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3. Methanol Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Methanol production and capacity utilization increased, and the market showed a weak upward trend with pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options decreased and fluctuated below the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level was 2600 and the support level was 2300 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4. Ethylene Glycol Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak and wide - range volatile pattern [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level was 4450 and the support level was 4400 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.5. Polypropylene Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Polypropylene inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak upward trend with pressure [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options fluctuated around the historical average. The open interest PCR decreased to below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 7300 and the support level was 6500 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, there is no suggestion. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.6. Rubber Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Rubber imports increased, and the market showed a short - term weak upward trend with pressure [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options increased rapidly and then decreased to around the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60. The pressure level was 16000 and the support level was 14000 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, there is no suggestion [13]. 3.5.7. PTA Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: PTA inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak and volatile pattern [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 5000 and the support level was 4450 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, there is no suggestion [14]. 3.5.8. Caustic Soda Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Caustic soda production was high, demand was low, and the price was under pressure. The market showed a short - term upward trend with pressure [15]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options was at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 3000 and the support level was 2400 [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, there is no suggestion. For spot collar hedging, construct a long collar strategy [15]. 3.5.9. Soda Ash Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Soda ash inventories were high, production increased, and the market showed a volatile pattern with support [15]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options increased rapidly and then decreased significantly but was still at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1640 and the support level was 1200 [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is a suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [15]. 3.5.10. Urea Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Urea inventories decreased, and the market showed a low - level volatile pattern [16]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1900 and the support level was 1700 [16]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [16].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical options market involves various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkali chemicals. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] - Each option variety is analyzed from aspects of underlying market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 497, down 7 with a decline rate of 1.43%, trading volume of 14.76 million lots, and open interest of 3.16 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR values and their changes of various option varieties are given. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.72, down 0.17; the open interest PCR is 0.56, down 0.05 [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of different option varieties are provided. For instance, the pressure level of crude oil is 550, and the support level is 500 [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.805%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.99%, up 1.41% [7] 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentals show an increase in US crude oil inventories. The market has been weakening and fluctuating. Implied volatility is near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. It is recommended to construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Factory and port inventories are high. The market shows a short - term bearish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. Similar to crude oil, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: Inventories of sample production enterprises have decreased. The market is under pressure and shows a weakening trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate remains stable, but production profits are under pressure. The market shows a wide - range volatile trend. Implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a sideways trend. A short - volatility strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, etc.) - **Polypropylene**: The number of maintenance production lines has decreased, and production has increased. The market is under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is near the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. A spot long - hedging strategy is recommended [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: The opening area and output in Hainan have decreased. The market shows a bearish downward trend. Implied volatility is near the average after a sharp rise, and the open interest PCR indicates a bearish trend. A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy is recommended [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, etc.) - **PTA**: Factory inventories are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening trend. A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy is recommended [13] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of production capacity has decreased slightly. The market shows a weakening and volatile trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. A spot collar hedging strategy is recommended [14] - **Soda Ash**: Inventories are accumulating. The market shows a trend of rebounding after a sharp decline. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. A short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [14] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The market shows a low - level volatile trend. Implied volatility is near the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure. A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [15] 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various option varieties are provided, including price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest distribution charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure - support level charts for each option variety such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol [17][37][57]
全品种价差日报-20250725
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:20
Group 1: Metals Ferrous Metals - The spot price of 72-silicon ferroalloy qualified block in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipt is 5,878, with a basis of 124 and a historical quantile of 0.03%. The futures price is 5,754 [1]. - The spot price of 65-silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipt is 2,950, with a basis of 25.60%. The futures price is 5,948, and the converted price is 6,517 [1]. - The spot price of HRB400 20mm rebar in Shanghai is 3,380, with a basis of 86 and a historical quantile of 45.20%. The futures price is 3,294 [1]. - The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai is 3,470, with a basis of 14 and a historical quantile of 23.40%. The futures price is 3,456 [1]. - The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 839, with a basis of 25.50%. The futures price is 811, and the converted price is based on the corresponding standard [1]. - The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port is 1,735, with a basis of - 11.28%. The futures price is 1,539 [1]. - The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) at Shaheyi is 1,199, with a basis of - 5.88%. The futures price is 1,134 [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,795, with a basis of - 95 and a historical quantile of 32.91%. The futures price is 79,890 [1]. - The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,720, with a basis of - 40 and a historical quantile of 39.37%. The futures price is 20,760 [1]. - The spot price of SMM alumina index is 3,427, with a basis of - 184 and a historical quantile of 6.82%. The futures price is 3,243 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot is 22,810, with a basis of - 15 and a historical quantile of 10.41%. The futures price is 23,015 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 272,400, with a basis of 1,550 and a historical quantile of 13.75%. The futures price is 273,950 [1]. - The spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel is 124,360, with a basis of - 260 and a historical quantile of 42.29%. The futures price is 124,100 [1]. - The spot price of 304/2B:2*1240*C stainless steel from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13,070, with a basis of 135 and a historical quantile of 33.04%. The futures price is 12,935 [1]. - The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,680, with a basis of - 6,130 and a historical quantile of 4.40%. The futures price is 70,550 [1]. - The spot price of SMM industrial silicon is 10,000, with a basis of 475 and a historical quantile of 35.29%. The futures price is not clearly presented in a comparable way [1]. Precious Metals - The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold AU (T + D) is 778.7, with a basis of - 3.6 and a historical quantile of 14.30%. The futures price is 775.1 [1]. - The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver AG (T + D) is 9,386.0, with a basis of - 35.0 and a historical quantile of 17.80%. The futures price is 9,351.0 [1]. Group 2: Agricultural Products - The spot price of common soybean meal in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 2,860, with a basis of - 165.0 and a historical quantile of 9.20%. The futures price is 3,025.0 [1]. - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 8,200, with a basis of 34.0 and a historical quantile of 2.10%. The futures price is 8,166.0 [1]. - The spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9,104.0, with a basis of - 44.0 and a historical quantile of 8.60%. The futures price is 9,060 [1]. - The spot price of common rapeseed meal in Guangdong Zhanjiang is 2,682.0, with a basis of - 122.0 and a historical quantile of 15.20%. The futures price is 2,560 [1]. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Nantong is 9,540, with a basis of 48.0 and a historical quantile of 24.00%. The futures price is 9,492.0 [1]. - The spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,360, with a basis of 42.0 and a historical quantile of 67.80%. The futures price is 2,318.0 [1]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin Changchun is 2,740, with a basis of 71.0 and a historical quantile of 32.50%. The futures price is 2,669.0 [1]. - The spot price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Henan is 14,200, with a basis of - 165.0 and a historical quantile of 39.60%. The futures price is 14,365.0 [1]. - The spot price of eggs in Hebei Shijiazhuang is 3,636.0, with a basis of - 416.0 and a historical quantile of 8.90%. The futures price is 3,220 [1]. - The spot price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 15,431, with a basis of - 1,271.0 and a historical quantile of 8.98%. The futures price is 14,160.0 [1]. - The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 6,120, with a basis of 254.0 and a historical quantile of 51.90%. The futures price is 5,866.0 [1]. - The theoretical delivery price of apples is 8,600, with a basis of 631.0 and a historical quantile of 50.40%. The futures price is 7,969.0 [1]. - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 10,515.0, with a basis of - 2,215.0 and a historical quantile of 8.60%. The futures price is 8,300 [1]. Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - The spot price of paraxylene at the Chinese main port (CFR) converted to RMB is 7,043.0, with a basis of 87.0 and a historical quantile of 52.90%. The futures price is 6,956.0 [1]. - The spot price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in the East China region is 4,850.0, with a basis of - 30.0 and a historical quantile of 41.30%. The futures price is 4,820.0 [1]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 4,540.0, with a basis of 55.0 and a historical quantile of 81.10%. The futures price is 4,485.0 [1]. - The spot price of polyester fiber in the East China market is 6,605.0, with a basis of 85.0 and a historical quantile of 66.60%. The futures price is 6,520.0 [1]. - The spot price of styrene in East China is 7,450.0, with a basis of 10.0 and a historical quantile of 28.60%. The futures price is 7,440.0 [1]. - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,480.0, with a basis of - 17.5 and a historical quantile of 23.10%. The futures price is 2,462.5 [1]. - The spot price of urea in Shandong is 1,810.0, with a basis of 25.0 and a historical quantile of 18.70%. The futures price is 1,785.0 [1]. - The spot price of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) in Shandong is 7,385.0, with a basis of - 105.0 and a historical quantile of 2.90%. The futures price is 7,280.0 [1]. - The spot price of polypropylene (PP) in Zhejiang is 7,181.0, with a basis of - 41.0 and a historical quantile of 14.50%. The futures price is 7,140.0 [1]. - The spot price of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market is 5,238.0, with a basis of - 148.0 and a historical quantile of 38.50%. The futures price is 5,090.0 [1]. - The spot price of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong is 2,675.0, with a basis of - 81.3 and a historical quantile of 37.00%. The futures price is 2,593.8 [1]. - The spot price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4,548.0, with a basis of 525.0 and a historical quantile of 69.80%. The futures price is 4,023.0 [1]. - The spot price of asphalt in Shandong is 3,785.0, with a basis of 183.0 and a historical quantile of 80.60%. The futures price is 3,602.0 [1]. - The spot price of butadiene rubber in China is 12,285.0, with a basis of - 85.0 and a historical quantile of - 0.69%. The futures price is 12,200.0 [1]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe is 1,307.0, with a basis of - 131.0 and a historical quantile of 17.85%. The futures price is 1,176.0 [1]. - The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,408.0, with a basis of - 10.0 and a historical quantile of 26.68%. The futures price is 1,398.0 [1]. - The spot price of natural rubber in Shanghai is 15,245.0, with a basis of - 245.0 and a historical quantile of 81.66%. The futures price is 15,000.0 [1]. Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - For IF2509.CFE, the spot price is 4,149.0, with a basis of - 7.8 and a historical quantile of 40.60%. The futures price is 4,141.2 [1]. - For IH2509.CFE, the spot price is 2,816.6, with a basis of 4.2 and a historical quantile of 80.90%. The futures price is 2,812.4 [1]. - For IC2509.CFE, the spot price is 6,293.6, with a basis of - 67.6 and a historical quantile of 9.70%. The futures price is 6,226.0 [1]. - For IM2509.CFE, the spot price is 6,701.1, with a basis of - 82.5 and a historical quantile of 15.10%. The futures price is 6,618.6 [1]. Bond Futures - For 2 - year bond (TS2509), the spot price is 102.31, with a basis of 0.00 and a historical quantile of 27.00%. The futures price is 100.23, and the conversion factor is 0.9796 [1]. - For 5 - year bond (TF2509), the spot price is 105.61, with a basis of 0.02 and a historical quantile of 30.70%. The futures price is 100.59, and the conversion factor is 0.9522 [1]. - For 10 - year bond (T2509), the spot price is 108.26, with a basis of 0.01 and a historical quantile of 17.10%. The futures price is 100.63, and the conversion factor is 0.9294 [1]. - For 30 - year bond (TL2509), the spot price is 133.85, with a basis of 0.17 and a historical quantile of 23.80%. The futures price is 118.52, and the conversion factor is 1.1279 [1].
全品种价差日报-20250724
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:53
Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]
全品种价差日报-20250721
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 03:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 5508, futures price is 5628, with a basis of 96 and a basis rate of 1.65%, and a historical quantile of 5900 [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price information not fully clear, futures price not shown, basis rate is 43.00% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3250, futures price is 3147, with a basis of 103 and a basis rate of 50.30%, and a historical quantile of 3340 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3340, futures price is 3310, with a basis of 30 [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 829, futures price is 785, with a basis of 36.80% and a historical quantile of 1392 [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1518, with a basis rate of 23.97% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 940, futures price is 926, with a basis of 14 and a basis rate of 18.90% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2508)**: Spot price is 78660, futures price is 78410, with a basis of 250 and a basis rate of 0.32%, and a historical quantile of 68.12% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: Spot price is 20700, futures price is 20510, with a basis of 190 and a basis rate of 88.95% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: Spot price is 3185, futures price is 3133, with a basis rate of 1.66% and a historical quantile of 46.69% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: Spot price is 22295, futures price is 22250, with a basis of - 45 and a basis rate of - 0.20%, and a historical quantile of 39.37% [1]. - **Tin (SN2508)**: Spot price is 265500, futures price is 264540, with a basis of 860 and a basis rate of 0.36%, and a historical quantile of 73.12% [1]. - **Nickel (MISE08)**: Spot price is 120800, futures price is 120500, with a basis of 300 and a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 68.75% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (22509)**: Spot price is 12970, futures price is 12725, with a basis of 245 and a basis rate of 1.93%, and a historical quantile of 54.50% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2509)**: Spot price is 69960, futures price is 66650, with a basis of - 3310 and a basis rate of - 4.73%, and a historical quantile of 12.55% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2509)**: Spot price is 9350, futures price is 8602, with a basis rate of 7.53% and a historical quantile of 44.20% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: Spot price is 777.0, futures price is 773.4, with a basis of - 3.6 and a basis rate of - 0.47%, and a historical quantile of 14.00% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: Spot price is 9273.0, futures price is 9211.0, with a basis of - 62.0 and a basis rate of - 0.67%, and a historical quantile of 1.40% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 3056.0, futures price is 2890, with a basis of - 166.0 and a basis rate of - 5.43%, and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8220, futures price is 8160.0, with a basis of 60.0 and a basis rate of 0.74%, and a historical quantile of 4.20% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 8964.0, futures price is 8960, with a basis of - 4.0 and a basis rate of - 0.04%, and a historical quantile of 15.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2722.0, futures price is 2600, with a basis of - 122.0 and a basis rate of - 4.48%, and a historical quantile of 14.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price is 9670, futures price is 9586.0, with a basis of 84.0 and a basis rate of 0.88%, and a historical quantile of 36.20% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2314.0, with a basis of 36.0 and a basis rate of 1.56%, and a historical quantile of 64.20% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: Spot price is 2740, futures price is 2658.0, with a basis of 82.0 and a basis rate of 3.09%, and a historical quantile of 37.00% [1]. - **Live Hogs (H2509)**: Spot price is 14400, futures price is 14135.0, with a basis of 265.0 and a basis rate of 1.87%, and a historical quantile of 46.40% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: Spot price is 3595.0, futures price is 2870, with a basis of - 725.0 and a basis rate of - 20.17%, and a historical quantile of 3.80% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 15424, futures price is 14270.0, with a basis of 1154.0 and a basis rate of 8.09%, and a historical quantile of 79.10% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6120, futures price is 5826.0, with a basis of 294.0 and a basis rate of 5.05%, and a historical quantile of 56.40% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 717.0, with a basis rate of 9.10%, and a historical quantile of 56.70% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 10350.0, futures price is 8300, with a basis of - 2050.0 and a basis rate of - 19.81%, and a historical quantile of 12.00% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 6914.0, futures price is 6810.0, with a basis of 104.0 and a basis rate of 1.53%, and a historical quantile of 56.90% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4760.0, futures price is 4744.0, with a basis of 16.0 and a basis rate of 0.34%, and a historical quantile of 56.80% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4435.0, futures price is 4376.0, with a basis of 59.0 and a basis rate of 1.35%, and a historical quantile of 81.90% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2508)**: Spot price is 7440.0, futures price is 7347.0, with a basis of 93.0 and a basis rate of 1.27%, and a historical quantile of 46.00% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2385.0, futures price is 2365.0, with a basis of 20.0 and a basis rate of 0.85%, and a historical quantile of 51.50% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1810.0, futures price is 1745.0, with a basis of 65.0 and a basis rate of 3.72%, and a historical quantile of 33.00% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7216.0, futures price is 7200.0, with a basis of - 16.0 and a basis rate of - 0.22%, and a historical quantile of 15.90% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7077.0, futures price is 7013.0, with a basis of 64.0 and a basis rate of 0.91%, and a historical quantile of 39.40% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 4937.0, futures price is 4840.0, with a basis of 97.0 and a basis rate of 6.32%, and a historical quantile of 55.30% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: Spot price is 2625.0, futures price is 2469.0, with a basis of 156.0 and a basis rate of 71.80% [1]. - **LPG (PG2508)**: Spot price is 4498.0, futures price is 4053.0, with a basis of 445.0 and a basis rate of 10.98%, and a historical quantile of 62.30% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3820.0, futures price is 3655.0, with a basis of 165.0 and a basis rate of 4.51%, and a historical quantile of 79.30% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2508)**: Spot price is 11720.0, futures price is 11700.0, with a basis of - 20.0 and a basis rate of - 0.17%, and a historical quantile of 27.10% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1084.0, futures price is 1081.0, with a basis of 3.0 and a basis rate of 0.28%, and a historical quantile of 64.49% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1216.0, futures price is 1206.0, with a basis of - 10.0 and a basis rate of - 0.83%, and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 14810.0, futures price is 14800.0, with a basis of - 10.0 and a basis rate of - 0.07%, and a historical quantile of 94.37% [1]. Financial Futures - **IF2509.CFE**: Spot price is 4041.8, futures price is 4058.5, with a basis of - 16.7 and a basis rate of - 0.41%, and a historical quantile of 25.90% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: Spot price is 2767.0, futures price is 2764.5, with a basis of 2.5 and a basis rate of 0.09%, and a historical quantile of 72.20% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6099.6, futures price is 6000.8, with a basis of - 98.8 and a basis rate of - 1.65%, and a historical quantile of 2.80% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: Spot price is 6552.1, futures price is 6413.6, with a basis of - 138.5 and a basis rate of - 2.16%, and a historical quantile of 8.20% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds (TS2509)**: Spot price is 102.43, futures price is 100.35, with a basis of 0.00 and a basis rate of 0.00%, and a historical quantile of 26.70% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bonds (TF2509)**: Spot price is 106.01, futures price is 100.95, with a basis of 0.07 and a basis rate of 0.07%, and a historical quantile of 28.40% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds (T2509)**: Spot price is 108.81, futures price is 101.20, with a basis of 0.19 and a basis rate of 0.19%, and a historical quantile of 24.10% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bonds (TL2509)**: Spot price is 136.17, futures price is 120.53, with a basis of 0.22 and a basis rate of 0.22%, and a historical quantile of 31.10% [1].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250711
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical options market involves various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkali chemicals. - Strategies suggest constructing option - combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2508) is 520, with a price increase of 4 and a rise - fall rate of 0.85%. The trading volume is 12.89 million lots, and the open interest is 2.45 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR are used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.81 with a change of 0.08, and the open - interest PCR is 0.69 with a change of 0.06 [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 660, and the support level is 450 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility and volume - weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 27.63%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.49% with a change of 0.60 [8]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil)**: - Fundamental analysis shows that US crude inventories and production have specific changes. The market trend of crude oil has been fluctuating since May. - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the average, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 suggests increasing short - selling power. - Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option - selling combination for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options**: - Fundamental factors such as geopolitical concerns and inventory situations affect the market. The LPG market has shown a short - term bearish trend. - Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates increasing short - selling power. - Strategies are similar to crude oil, including option - selling combinations and long - collar strategies [11]. - **Methanol Options**: - Fundamental analysis focuses on port inventories and MTO device utilization rates. The methanol market has shown short - term narrow - range fluctuations. - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR around 0.80 suggests a weak - oscillating market. - Strategies involve option - selling combinations and long - collar strategies [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: - The market price of ethylene glycol has shown a weak - bearish oscillating pattern. - Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR around 0.70 indicates a weak market. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, Plastic, Styrene)**: - Fundamental analysis focuses on production and supply changes. The polyolefin market has shown different trends, generally with bearish pressure. - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the decreasing open - interest PCR suggests a weakening market. - Strategies mainly involve spot - hedging strategies such as long - collar strategies [12]. - **Rubber Options**: - The rubber market has shown a low - level consolidation pattern. - Option factors show that the implied volatility is around the average, and the open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a bearish market. - Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option - selling combination [13]. - **Polyester Options (Para - xylene, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip)**: - The PTA market has shown significant fluctuations. - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the average, and the open - interest PCR around 0.80 suggests a weakening market. - Strategies involve constructing a neutral call + put option - selling combination [14]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: - Fundamental analysis focuses on inventory and profit changes. The caustic soda market has shown a trend of first falling and then rising. - Option factors show that the implied volatility is decreasing and around the average, and the open - interest PCR rising to 0.80 suggests a strengthening market. - Strategies include a bear - spread strategy for directional trading and a covered - call strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash Options**: - The soda ash market has shown a long - term weak - bearish trend. - Option factors indicate that the implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR below 0.50 suggests a weak - oscillating market. - Strategies include a bear - spread strategy, a short - bearish call + put option - selling combination, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Urea Options**: - The urea market has shown an oscillating pattern under bearish pressure. - Option factors show that the implied volatility is slightly below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR below 0.80 suggests a weak market. - Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option - selling combination and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [16].