能源化工期权 2025-12-10 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

12月3日，桐昆股份跌0.84%，成交额3.30亿元。两融数据显示，当日桐昆股份获融资买入额3182.83万 元，融资偿还3923.32万元，融资净买入-740.49万元。截至12月3日，桐昆股份融资融券余额合计20.82 亿元。 融资方面，桐昆股份当日融资买入3182.83万元。当前融资余额20.76亿元，占流通市值的5.68%，融资 余额低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位。 融券方面，桐昆股份12月3日融券偿还2100.00股，融券卖出1.31万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 20.00万元；融券余量35.96万股，融券余额549.10万元，低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，桐昆集团股份有限公司位于浙江省桐乡市梧桐街道凤凰湖大道518号，成立日期1999年9月27 日，上市日期2011年5月18日，公司主营业务涉及从事各类民用涤纶长丝、坯布的生产、销售。主营业 务收入构成为：涤纶预取向丝61.10%，精对苯二甲酸37.69%，涤纶牵伸丝15.07%，涤纶加弹丝9.46%， 其他2.90%，其他业务收入2.89%，切片0.34%，复合丝0.27%。 截至9月30日，桐昆股份股东户数5.01万， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on futures and spot prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles for various commodities including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals on November 28, 2025 [1] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price is 5478, futures price is 5390, basis is 88, basis rate is 2.56%, and historical quantile is 52.20% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5626, other data not fully presented [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3240, futures price is 3093, basis is 147, basis rate is 4.75%, and historical quantile is 62.00% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3293, futures price is 3290, basis is - 3, basis rate is - 0.09%, and historical quantile is 17.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (converted price of 62.5% BRBF) is 860, futures price is 800, basis is 60, basis rate is 7.56%, and historical quantile is 48.30% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Data on spot price (converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) and other details are presented, but not all data is complete [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal) is 1195, futures price is 1071, basis is 124, basis rate is 11.58%, and historical quantile is 58.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: Spot price is 87085, futures price is 86990, basis is 95, basis rate is 0.11%, and historical quantile is 59.16% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: Spot price is 21500, futures price is 21460, basis is - 40, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 43.54% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2832, futures price is 2724, basis is 108, basis rate is 3.96%, and historical quantile is 57.04% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2601)**: Spot price is 22415, futures price is 22380, basis is 35, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 55.00% [1] - **Tin (SN2601)**: Spot price is 302200, futures price is 301800, basis is 400, basis rate is 0.13%, and historical quantile is 36.66% [1] - **Nickel (NI2601)**: Spot price is 117050, futures price is 116900, basis is 150, basis rate is 0.13%, and historical quantile is 62.91% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: Spot price is 12870, futures price is 12410, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.71%, and historical quantile is 83.90% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price is 947.2, futures price is 943.1, basis is - 4.0, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 12.20% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Spot price is 12545.0, futures price is 12525.0, basis is 20.0, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 98.30% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price is 3055.0, futures price is 2990, basis is - 65.0, basis rate is - 2.3%, and historical quantile is 27.40% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price is 8410, futures price is 8224.0, basis is 186.0, basis rate is 2.26%, and historical quantile is 38.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price is 8528.0, futures price is 8460, basis is - 68.0, basis rate is - 0.80%, and historical quantile is 10.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price is 2570, futures price is 2469.0, basis is 101.0, basis rate is 4.09%, and historical quantile is 64.80% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price is 10070, futures price is 9772.0, basis is 298.0, basis rate is 3.05%, and historical quantile is 80.60% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price is 2290, futures price is 2243.0, basis is 47.0, basis rate is 2.10%, and historical quantile is 65.50% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Spot price is 2600, futures price is 2572.0, basis is 28.0, basis rate is 1.09%, and historical quantile is 17.50% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price is 11585.0, futures price is 11400, basis is - 185.0, basis rate is - 1.60%, and historical quantile is 38.40% [1] - **Eggs (JD2601)**: Spot price is 3282.0, futures price is 2890, basis is - 392.0, basis rate is - 11.94%, and historical quantile is 13.00% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price is 14700, futures price is 13640.0, basis is 1060.0, basis rate is 7.77%, and historical quantile is 1.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price is 5615, futures price is 5403.0, basis is 212.0, basis rate is 3.92%, and historical quantile is 36.40% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price is 9529.0, futures price is 9000, basis is - 529.0, basis rate is - 5.95%, and historical quantile is 5.90% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price is 9150.0, futures price is 8700, basis is - 450.0, basis rate is - 4.92%, and historical quantile is 72.20% [1] Energy Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price is 6741.0, futures price is 6718.0, basis is 23.0, basis rate is 0.34%, and historical quantile is 30.80% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price is 4632.0, futures price is 4600.0, basis is - 32.0, basis rate is - 0.69%, and historical quantile is 44.50% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price is 3880.0, futures price is 3873.0, basis is 7.0, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 61.60% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Spot price is 6280.0, futures price is 6162.0, basis is 118.0, basis rate is 1.91%, and historical quantile is 71.80% [1] - **Styrene (EB2601)**: Spot price is 6585.0, futures price is 6520.0, basis is 65.0, basis rate is 1.00%, and historical quantile is 43.60% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price is 2114.0, futures price is 2105.0, basis is - 9.0, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 32.10% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price is 1668.0, futures price is 1650.0, basis is 18.0, basis rate is - 1.08%, and historical quantile is 10.90% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price is 6810.0, futures price is 6699.0, basis is 111.0, basis rate is 1.65%, and historical quantile is 56.80% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price is 6450.0, futures price is 6295.0, basis is 155.0, basis rate is 2.46%, and historical quantile is 67.70% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price is 4517.0, futures price is 4450.0, basis is - 67.0, basis rate is - 1.48%, and historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price is 2343.8, futures price is 2238.0, basis is 105.8, basis rate is 4.73%, and historical quantile is 64.40% [1] - **LPG (PG2601)**: Spot price is 4348.0, futures price is 4259.0, basis is 89.0, basis rate is 2.09%, and historical quantile is 36.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price is 3010.0, futures price is 3007.0, basis is 3.0, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 53.30% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: Spot price is 10400.0, futures price is 10400.0, basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, and historical quantile is 28.90% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price is 1041.0, futures price is 988.0, basis is 53.0, basis rate is - 5.36%, and historical quantile is 56.51% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price is 1176.0, futures price is 1146.0, basis is 30.0, basis rate is - 2.62%, and historical quantile is 28.99% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price is 15280.0, futures price is 14800.0, basis is 480.0, basis rate is 3.0%, and historical quantile is 69.59% [1] Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4515.4, futures price is 4492.6, basis is - 22.8, basis rate is - 0.51%, and historical quantile is 20.30% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 2972.3, futures price is 2962.4, basis is - 9.9, basis rate is - 0.33%, and historical quantile is 21.50% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 6951.3, futures price is 6896.2, basis is - 55.1, basis rate is - 0.80%, and historical quantile is 16.40% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7257.5, futures price is 7179.0, basis is - 78.5, basis rate is - 1.09%, and historical quantile is 24.90% [1] - **2 - year Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price is 102.39, futures price is 100.02, basis is 2.37, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 12.40% [1] - **5 - year Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price is 105.78, futures price is 99.51, basis is 6.27, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 20.60% [1] - **10 - year Bond (T2603)**: Spot price is 107.91, futures price is 100.25, basis is 7.66, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 19.20% [1] - **30 - year Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price is 129.32, futures price is 114.43, basis is 14.89, basis rate is 0.38%, and historical quantile is 65.80% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the price, basis, basis rate, historical quantile, and other data of various futures and spot commodities on November 21, 2025, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial futures [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: The conversion price of 72 - grade silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5446, with a change of 2.06% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The conversion price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 5614 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3050, and the futures price is 3210, with a basis rate of 5.25% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures price is 3270, with a change of 0.09% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The conversion price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 1634, with a change of 0.75% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The conversion price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1646, with a historical quantile of 70.18% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The conversion price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1114, with a change of 9.83% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2601)**: The SMM 1 copper average price is 86435, and the futures price is 86130, with a basis of 305 and a historical quantile of 79.79% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21570, and the futures price is 21530, with a basis rate of 0.19% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM alumina index average price is 2836 [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 22360, and the futures price is 22380, with a basis of - 20 [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 291500, and the futures price is 292030, with a change of - 0.18% [1]. - **Nickel (NISE01)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 116600, and the futures price is 115380, with a basis of 1220 [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: The price of 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 12820, and the futures price is 12285, with a change of 4.35% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of common protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2980, and the futures price is 3017, with a basis rate of - 1.23% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8224, and the futures price is 8420, with a basis of 196 [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8630, and the futures price is 8646, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of common rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2412, and the futures price is 2500, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9779, and the futures price is 10100, with a basis of 321 [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2220, and the futures price is 2168, with a basis rate of 3.28% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2550, and the futures price is 2473, with a basis of 77 [1]. - **Live Pigs (LH2601)**: The ex - factory price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan is 11750, and the futures price is 11440, with a basis of 310 [1]. - **Eggs (JD2601)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 3238, and the futures price is 2710, with a basis rate of - 16.31% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang is 14563, and the futures price is 13465, with a basis of 1098 [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5760, and the futures price is 5366, with a basis of 394 [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The delivery theoretical price of apples is 9496, and the futures price is 8840, with a basis of - 656 [1]. - **Red Dates (C1601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 9300, and the futures price is 8800, with a basis of - 500 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene (PX601)**: The spot price of para - xylene at the main Chinese port (CFR) converted into RMB is 6830, and the futures price is 6833, with a basis rate of 0.04% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of PTA in the East China region is 4630, and the futures price is 4696, with a basis of - 66 [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 3935, and the futures price is 3822, with a basis of 113 [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spinning)) in the East China market is 6220, and the futures price is 6305, with a basis of 85 [1]. - **Styrene (EB2601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6625, and the futures price is 6595, with a basis of 30 [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2000, and the futures price is 2016, with a basis of - 16 [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of urea (small - particle) in Shandong region is 1640, and the futures price is 1665, with a basis of - 25 [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong is 6855, and the futures price is 6835, with a basis of 20 [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6400, and the futures price is 6500, with a basis of 100 [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of PVC (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4456, and the futures price is 4420, with a basis of - 36 [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market converted to 100% is 2437.5, and the futures price is 2261, with a basis of 176.5 [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The market price of LPG in Guangzhou region is 4397, and the futures price is 4348, with a basis of - 49 [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong region is 3030, and the futures price is 3058, with a basis of 28 [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 10700, and the futures price is 10520, with a basis of 180 [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of Fufa glass 5mm large board in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 988, and the futures price is 989, with a basis of - 1 [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe (daily) is 1158, and the futures price is 1128, with a basis of - 30 [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai is 15250, and the futures price is 14850, with a basis of 400 [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - IF2512.CFE: The futures price is 4564.9, and the basis is - 25.7, with a basis rate of - 0.57% [1]. - IH2512.CFE: The futures price is 3002.6, and the basis is - 5.7, with a basis rate of - 0.19% [1]. - IC2512.CFE: The futures price is 7061.9, and the basis is - 61.9, with a basis rate of - 0.88% [1]. - IM2512.CFE: The futures price is 7340.4, and the basis is - 76.8, with a basis rate of - 1.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - TS2512: The futures price is 100.04, and the basis is - 0.01, with a basis rate of - 0.01% [1]. - TF2512: The futures price is 105.92, and the basis is 0.00, with a basis rate of 0.00% [1]. - T2512: The futures price is 108.48, and the basis is 0.08, with a basis rate of 0.08% [1]. - TL2512: The futures price is 115.93, and the basis is 0.16, with a basis rate of 0.14% [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated November 13, 2025, covering various energy and chemical option varieties [1][2] - The strategy focuses on constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple option varieties are presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc., with details on their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [3] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) for various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market and potential turning points [4] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for each option variety are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest call and put option open interest [5] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis shows that U.S. refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has slightly increased, OPEC exports have risen, and European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season [7] - The market has shown a complex trend of rising and falling in different months. Implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. The pressure level is 590, and the support level is 450 [7] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The cost - end crude oil is under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances. The LPG market has shown a pattern of over - decline and rebound with resistance [9] - Implied volatility has dropped to below the average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak market, the pressure level is 4550, and the support level is 4200 [9] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] Methanol - Port and enterprise inventories are high, and the supply is increasing. The market has been in a weak downward trend [9] - Implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, the pressure level is 2500, and the support level is 2000 [9] - Strategies involve constructing a bear spread with put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] Ethylene Glycol - Port and downstream factory inventories are high, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. The market has been weak [10] - Implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling power, the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Polypropylene - PE and PP inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports show different trends. The market has been in a weak downward trend [10] - Implied volatility has dropped to around the average, the open interest PCR indicates a weak market, the pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread with put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Rubber - Exchange rubber warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The market has been in a weak consolidation pattern [11] - Implied volatility has decreased to below the average after a sharp rise, the open interest PCR is below 0.6, the pressure level is 16000, and the support level is 14500 [11] - Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination [11] PTA - PTA social inventory has increased, and new production capacity is expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation. The market has shown a pattern of rebound with resistance [11] - Implied volatility is above the average, the open interest PCR indicates a volatile market, the pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [11] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination [11] Caustic Soda - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased. The market has been in a weak downward trend [12] - Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market, the pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2000 [12] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] Soda Ash - Soda ash factory inventories have increased. The market has been in a low - level weak consolidation pattern [12] - Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure, the pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [12] - Strategies include constructing a bear spread, a short - volatility combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] Urea - Enterprise inventory is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The market has shown a pattern of low - level consolidation and rebound [13] - Implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure, the pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [13] - Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price increase of 32.47% year-to-date, with a recent decline of 2.02% on November 13, 2023, indicating volatility in the market [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares to 35.9221 million shares, and a new entrant, Penghua Zhongzheng Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 25.2748 million shares [3] Market Activity - On November 13, 2023, the stock price was reported at 15.50 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 71.6283 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.19%, leading to a total market capitalization of 37.274 billion yuan [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 5.2214 million yuan, with significant selling pressure observed [1] Business Overview - Tongkun Co., Ltd. specializes in the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey cloth, with its main revenue sources being polyester pre-oriented yarn (61.10%) and purified terephthalic acid (37.69%) [1] - The company is classified under the Shenwan industry category of petroleum and petrochemicals, specifically in refining and trade [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and other energy and chemical options [1][2] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly as a seller, as well as a spot hedging or covered strategy to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various option underlying futures contracts are provided [3] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various options are presented [4] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The at - the - money strike price, pressure point, pressure point offset, support point, support point offset, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various options are given [5] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various options are reported [6] Group 6: Option Strategy Analysis - Energy Options Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis shows that U.S. refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded, shale oil production has slightly increased, OPEC exports have increased, European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and diesel crack spreads remain high [7] - The market trend shows a short - term weak oscillation in August, a weak and bearish trend followed by a rebound in September, a sharp decline followed by a rebound in October, and a continuous oscillation followed by a rebound in November [7] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates around the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, the pressure level is 470, and the support level is 450 [7] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [7] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis shows that the cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical issues, and OPEC maintains an increasing production state [9] - The market trend shows a rapid decline followed by a rebound and then a decline since August, a rise - fall - rise - fall pattern in September, a weak - strong - rebound - oscillation pattern in October, and a continuous slight oscillation in November [9] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the lower - than - average level, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, the pressure level is 4550, and the support level is 4200 [9] - Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [9] Group 7: Option Strategy Analysis - Alcohol Options Methanol - Fundamental analysis shows that port inventory is 151.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06 million tons, and enterprise inventory is 38.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04 million tons [9] - The market trend shows a weakening and bearish trend since August, a low - level consolidation followed by a rebound in September, and a continuous weak and bearish trend since October [9] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, the pressure level is 2500, and the support level is 2000 [9] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy of put options for the directional strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [9] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis shows that port inventory is 56.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3 million tons, and downstream factory inventory days are 13.2 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 days. It is expected that port inventory will continue the accumulation cycle [10] - The market trend shows a slight weak consolidation in August, a continuous weak and bearish trend since September, and a continuous weak trend in November [10] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates around the lower - than - average level, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, the pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy of put options for the directional strategy, a short - volatility strategy for the volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [10] Group 8: Option Strategy Analysis - Polyolefin Options Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis shows that PE and PP production enterprise inventories, trade inventories, and port inventories have different trends of accumulation or de - accumulation [10] - The market trend shows a weak and slight fluctuation in August, a continuous weak and bearish trend since September, and a continuous weak and bearish decline in November [10] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility has dropped to around the average level, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, the pressure level is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy of put options for the directional strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [10] Group 9: Option Strategy Analysis - Rubber Options Rubber - Fundamental analysis shows that exchange rubber warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later stage [11] - The market trend shows a warming and rising followed by a range - bound oscillation in August, a continuous weak and bearish trend since September, and a low - level weak oscillation in November [11] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility has decreased to around the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000, and the support level is 14500 [11] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy [11] Group 10: Option Strategy Analysis - Polyester Options PTA - Fundamental analysis shows that the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 225.1 million tons, a month - on - year increase of 11.4 million tons, and it is expected that inventory will continue to accumulate [11] - The market trend shows a decline followed by a small consolidation and then a rapid rebound and then a decline in August, a continuous weak and bearish trend since September, and a rebound and rise in November [11] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates at a higher - than - average level, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, the pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4300 [11] - Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy [11] Group 11: Option Strategy Analysis - Alkali Chemical Options Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis shows that the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [12] - The market trend shows a rapid decline followed by a rebound and then a high - level oscillation in August, a continuous decline since September, an accelerated decline in October, and a low - level weak oscillation in November [12] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, the pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2000 [12] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for the directional strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [12] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis shows that as of November 7, 2025, the in - plant inventory of soda ash is 171.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons [12] - The market trend shows a continuous weak consolidation since August, a low - level weak fluctuation in September, a continuous weak trend in October, and a decline - rise pattern in November [12] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 1860, and the support level is 1100 [12] - Recommended strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for the directional strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy for the volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [12] Group 12: Option Strategy Analysis - Urea Options - Fundamental analysis shows that enterprise inventory is 157.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.38 million tons, and port inventory is 7.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons [13] - The market trend shows a wide - range and large - amplitude fluctuation in August, a continuous weakening in September, a low - level weak oscillation in October, and a rebound and rise in November [13] - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, the pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [13] - Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - position hedging strategy [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies are recommended for selected options in each sector [8]. - A seller - based options portfolio strategy and spot hedging or covered strategies are constructed to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Information on the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various energy - chemical option underlying futures is presented, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, which can be used to analyze the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various energy - chemical options are given, which can help analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and difference between implied and historical volatility of various energy - chemical options are presented [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Crude Oil Options - Fundamental analysis shows that US refinery demand has stabilized and recovered, shale oil production has slightly increased, OPEC exports have increased, and European refinery demand is about to enter the peak season [7]. - The option implied volatility has decreased to near the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 500 and the support level is 450 [7]. - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. 3.5.2 LPG Options - The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical issues. LPG has shown a market trend of over - sold rebound and slight consolidation [9]. - The option implied volatility has dropped significantly to below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4550 and the support level is 4200 [9]. - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.3 Methanol Options - Port and enterprise inventories are high and difficult to deplete significantly in the short term. Methanol has shown a weak downward trend [9]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2200 and the support level is 2050 [9]. - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.4 Ethylene Glycol Options - Port and downstream factory inventories are high, and the port inventory is expected to continue the accumulation cycle. Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend [10]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating strong short - selling power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4050 [10]. - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polypropylene Options - PE and PP inventories have different trends. Polypropylene has shown a weak downward trend [10]. - The option implied volatility has decreased to near the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300 [10]. - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Exchange rubber warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Rubber has shown a weak consolidation trend [11]. - The option implied volatility has decreased to below the average after a sharp rise, the open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 16000 and the support level is 14500 [11]. - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.7 PTA Options - PTA social inventory is accumulating, and although the polyester start - up will remain high, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. PTA has shown a rebound trend with pressure [11]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300 [11]. - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.8 Caustic Soda Options - The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has increased. Caustic soda has shown a weak short - selling trend [12]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2600 and the support level is 2240 [12]. - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.9 Soda Ash Options - Soda ash factory inventory has increased. Soda ash has shown a low - level weak consolidation trend [1]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1300 and the support level is 1100 [12]. - Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.10 Urea Options - Enterprise inventory is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. Urea has shown a low - level shock and rebound trend [13]. - The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - selling pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600 [13]. - Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13].

Core Points - The stock of Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by 5.2% on November 10, reaching a price of 15.98 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 477 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.27%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 38.428 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. is located in Wutong Street, Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011 [1] - The main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey cloth. The revenue composition of the main business includes: - Polyester pre-oriented yarn: 61.10% - Purified terephthalic acid: 37.69% - Polyester drawn yarn: 15.07% - Polyester textured yarn: 9.46% - Others: 2.90% - Other business revenue: 2.89% - Chips: 0.34% - Composite yarn: 0.27% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Dongxing Fund holds a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongxing CSI A500 Index Enhanced A (024274) held 68,100 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 1.34% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest heavy stock [2] - The fund has a latest scale of 41.7159 million CNY and has achieved a return of 13.97% since its establishment on July 1, 2025 [2] - The fund manager, Li Bingwei, has a tenure of 9 years and 153 days, with total assets under management of 624 million CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 72.59%, while the worst is -11.19% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 28.88% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 2.03% on November 7, 2023, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares, and a new entrant, Penghua CSI Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 25.2748 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 7, 2023, Tongkun's stock price reached 15.08 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 260 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.73% [1]. - The stock has experienced a 6.05% increase over the last five trading days and a 23.10% increase over the last 60 days [1].