美联储鹰派暗示不会降息，哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚没啥特别的大事，就简单看一下美联储的消息吧。 12月21日晚间，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在美联储最近连续三次会议降息之后，她认为未来几个月没有必要调整利率。 哈马克此前反对近期降息，因为相比促使官员们在过去几个月累计降息0.75个百分点的"劳动力市场可能走弱"担忧，她更担心通胀仍 处在偏高水平。哈马克今年并非联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的投票委员，但明年将成为有投票权的委员。 她在接受播客采访时说："我的基准判断是，我们可以在当前水平维持一段时间，直到我们看到更明确的证据：要么通胀正在回落并 接近目标，要么就业端出现更明显的走弱。" 哈马克称，上周公布的11月通胀数据可能低估了过去12个月的物价涨幅，原因是10月以及11月上半月政府停摆导致的数据采集出现 偏差。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）报告显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%。但哈马克表示，如果对数据测量困难进行调整，通 胀"更接近"市场普遍预期的2.9%或3.0%。 她说："能重新拿到BLS的官方数据当然很好，但我仍会对它保持一定的保留态度。 ...

（原标题：美联储鹰派暗示不会降息 哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间） 【导读】美联储鹰派暗示不会降息，哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 12月21日晚间，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在美联储最近连续三次会议降息之后，她认为未 来几个月没有必要调整利率。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）报告显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%。但哈马克表示，如果 对数据测量困难进行调整，通胀"更接近"市场普遍预期的2.9%或3.0%。 她说："能重新拿到BLS的官方数据当然很好，但我仍会对它保持一定的保留态度。" 哈马克之所以担心降息，核心在于她认为所谓的"中性利率"（既不刺激也不抑制经济的利率水平）可能 比市场普遍认为的更高，同时美国经济已具备在明年实现稳健增长的条件。中性利率无法被直接观测， 只能通过经济运行状况进行推断。 她说："在我看来，我们现在可能已经略低于"她所估计的中性利率水平，这意味着美联储当前的政策总 体上可能在提供一定刺激。 哈马克还暗示，美联储没有必要调整当前的基准利率（目前区间为3.5%至3.75%），至少要等到春季。 她表示，届时美联储将能更好判断：近期商品价格通胀是否会随着关税影响在供应链中逐 ...

哈马克称，上周公布的11月通胀数据可能低估了过去12个月的物价涨幅，原因是10月以及11月上半月政府 停摆导致的数据采集出现偏差。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）报告显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%。但哈马克表示，如果对 数据测量困难进行调整，通胀"更接近"市场普遍预期的2.9%或3.0%。 她说："能重新拿到BLS的官方数据当然很好，但我仍会对它保持一定的保留态度。" 【导读】美联储鹰派暗示不会降息，哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 大家好，今晚没啥特别的大事，就简单看一下美联储的消息吧。 12月21日晚间，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在美联储最近连续三次会议降息之后，她认为未来 几个月没有必要调整利率。 哈马克此前反对近期降息，因为相比促使官员们在过去几个月累计降息0.75个百分点的"劳动力市场可能 走弱"担忧，她更担心通胀仍处在偏高水平。哈马克今年并非联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的投票委 员，但明年将成为有投票权的委员。 她在接受播客采访时说："我的基准判断是，我们可以在当前水平维持一段时间，直到我们看到更明确的 证据：要么通胀正在回落并接近目标，要么就业端出现更明显的走弱。" 她说： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Cleveland Fed President Beth Harmack, indicates a hawkish stance suggesting that interest rates will remain high for an extended period, with no immediate need for adjustments in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Harmack opposes recent interest rate cuts, citing concerns over persistent inflation rather than fears of a weakening labor market [1]. - She believes the current interest rate level (3.5% to 3.75%) may still provide some economic stimulus, as it is slightly below her estimated neutral rate [4]. - Harmack suggests that the Fed should wait until spring to reassess the need for rate adjustments, allowing for better evaluation of inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on supply chains [4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, but Harmack argues that this may underestimate the actual inflation rate, which could be closer to 2.9% or 3.0% after adjustments for data collection issues [3]. - She expresses skepticism about the reliability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, emphasizing the need for caution in interpreting inflation metrics [3]. - Harmack highlights that higher input costs, including those from tariffs, may lead companies to raise prices significantly in the first quarter, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures [4].

美联储哈马克暗示中性利率高于普遍认为的水平。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇12月21日丨美联储哈玛克表示，11月通胀数据积极，可能是由于10月和11月上半月政府停摆造成 的数据收集扭曲，而低估了12个月的价格增长。虽然劳工统计局报告称11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，但针对 数据测量困难进行调整后的估计值使其更接近预测者们普遍预期的2.9%或3.0%的水平。此外，哈玛克 对降息的担忧核心在于她的观点，即中性利率水平比普遍认为的要高，且经济本身就具备在明年保持稳 健增长的势头。中性利率无法直接观测，但可以通过经济运行状况来推断。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

MFS Investment Management固定收益研究分析师卡尔.昂(Carl Ang)指出，本次会议后日本央行或公布中 性利率的最新预估数据。回顾政策进程，日本于去年正式启动货币政策正常化，宣告结束自2016年起实 施的全球唯一负利率政策框架，此后始终秉持渐进式加息的调控方针。对于本次决议，投资者将重点捕 捉央行关于未来加息节奏的信号。 不同机构对后续加息时点的预判存在分歧。美国银行预计，日本央行或于明年6月启动新一轮加息，同 时也不排除在极端市场环境下提前至明年4月行动的可能性。该行分析师还预测，到2027年底前，日本 央行的终端年化利率有望上调至1.5%。 本周五(12月19日)日本央行将公布本年度最后一次利率决议。市场普遍预期，该行或将把基准利率上调 至30年来的最高水平，以此推进始于去年的货币政策正常化进程。 日本央行行长植田和男本月早些时候曾表态，终端利率水平难以精准预估，目前央行给出的预估区间为 1%—2.5%。他在日本国会发言时进一步阐释："中性利率是一个只能给出相当宽泛预估区间的概 念。"植田和男强调，尽管日本央行已尝试缩小利率预估区间，但在中性利率确切位置尚不明确的背景 下，货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming nomination for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, highlighting President Trump's preferences and the implications for monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rates. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - The list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair has been narrowed down to four individuals: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder from BlackRock [3][5] - President Trump has expressed that he is clear about his preferred candidate and is expected to make a decision in the coming weeks [4][6] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Trump emphasized that the next Federal Reserve Chair should be someone who believes in "significant" interest rate cuts, aiming to lower mortgage repayment amounts [6][8] - Current Federal Reserve interest rates are between 3.5% and 3.75%, with Trump indicating a desire for rates to potentially drop to as low as 1% [7] Group 3: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, down from 3% in September, indicating a potential easing of inflation [9] - New York Fed President Williams noted that technical factors may have distorted the CPI data, suggesting that the actual inflation rate could be higher than reported [10] - Waller supports further interest rate cuts to return to neutral levels, indicating that current rates are 50 to 100 basis points above neutral [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, indicating a shift towards monetary normalization while maintaining a generally accommodative financial environment [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Bank of Japan's decision to increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate reflects a moderate upward trend in core inflation, aligning with the economic outlook for the second half of the year [2][3]. - Despite the nominal interest rate hike, the central bank expects real interest rates to remain significantly negative, suggesting that the overall financial environment will continue to support economic recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data supports the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in November, consistent with market expectations and above the central bank's 2% target for the 44th consecutive month [4]. - The labor negotiations in Japan are expected to yield wage increases similar to last year, which saw the largest wage growth in decades, indicating sustained momentum in wage growth [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the interest rate hike, Japanese government bond yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield reaching 2.22%, surpassing China's yield for the first time in history [3][4]. - The market's reaction to the rate hike has been relatively stable, with concerns about global liquidity shocks being mitigated compared to previous rate hikes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar due to the Bank of Japan's lack of clear guidance on future monetary tightening, despite raising the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 [1] Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Actions - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate, leading to an increase in Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield surpassing 2% for the first time since 2006 [1] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan is cautious in tightening monetary policy, aiming to avoid negative market impacts [2] - The central bank's current estimate of the neutral interest rate range is between 1% and 2.5%, indicating potential for further rate increases [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The yen's depreciation is seen as a response to the Bank of Japan's unclear stance on future interest rate adjustments, with many investors hesitant to take long positions on the yen [2][3] - Analysts predict that the dollar/yen exchange rate could reach 160, but some express surprise if it exceeds this level [2] - The stock market has reacted positively, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rising 40% year-to-date, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Some analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates further by 2026, but the yen may lag behind other G10 currencies in the coming year due to unfavorable interest rate differentials [5] - The market anticipates that the next rate hike may not occur until mid-2024, reflecting a gradual approach to policy adjustments [8] - Concerns remain about the potential need for more aggressive rate hikes if the economy overheats, which could lead to increased interest rate risks [7]