FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 市场分析 关注"十五五"规划。国内方面，工信部部长李乐成表示，"十五五"时期，要实施培育新兴产业打造新动能行动， 加快打造一批新兴支柱产业；建立未来产业投入增长机制，开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新 赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。海外方面，鲍威尔表示，从许多衡量指标来看，比如股票价格，目前的确相当 高估。但他也表示，目前并不是金融稳定风险高企的时候；美联储的职责不是盯着股价或决定合理估值是多少。 此外，他未就美联储是否会在10月会议上降息给出任何暗示，令市场失望。 指数坚挺。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指跌0.18%收于3821.83点，创业板指涨0.21%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，仅银行、煤炭、电力设备等五个行业收红，社会服务、商贸零售、计算机、钢铁行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额为2.5万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌0.95%报22573.473点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM贴水程度继续加深。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing high volatility with increased short-term divergence and accelerated sector rotation, but the long-term upward trend in technology remains intact [1] - After the unexpected rise in August, the market may face short-term fluctuations, yet the overall trend is positive, indicating structural opportunities that should be actively seized [1] Group 2 - Investment focus is on four main areas: 1. Computing infrastructure, which continues to see rising demand, particularly in sectors like computing chips, optical communication, PCB, and liquid cooling [2] 2. The explosive potential of AI applications, with the ongoing improvement of AI infrastructure and technology leading to the emergence of blockbuster products in both edge and cloud applications [2] 3. Embodied intelligence scenarios, including humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones, which are expected to benefit from advancements in AI capabilities [2] 4. Emerging industries supported by policy, especially those highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will be important for medium to long-term investment [2] - Future market dynamics, such as style rebalancing and the performance of small-cap stocks, will be key areas of focus [2]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is primarily attributed to a lack of quality projects, shifting from a previous focus on funding shortages [3][40]. Investment Growth Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August 2025 is at 0.5%, down from a high of 4.2% in the first quarter, marking five consecutive months of decline [2][3]. - Investment growth has decreased across major sectors, including real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, with respective growth rates falling from -9.9%, 11.5%, and 9.1% in Q1 to -12.9%, 5.4%, and 5.1% by August [3][10]. Sector Analysis - The construction and installation sector has significantly impacted the overall decline in fixed asset investment, contributing -0.6 percentage points to the overall investment growth [10][20]. - Excluding real estate, the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment dropped from 8.3% in Q1 to 4.2% by August [3]. Company Type Investment Trends - Investment growth rates vary by company type, with foreign-invested enterprises experiencing the largest decline at -15.4%, while state-owned enterprises and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises show modest growth at 2.3% [7][10]. Price Factors - Price factors are not the primary cause of the recent decline in nominal investment growth, as the fixed asset investment price index has shown only a slight decline [9][10]. Future Outlook - If new policy financial tools are implemented soon, fixed asset investment may receive some support in Q4, and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" could alleviate project shortages [3][40].

Group 1 - The article discusses the overestimation of tariff impacts, highlighting the non-linear diminishing elasticity of tariff shocks and the subsequent easing mechanism due to reflexivity, as well as the strengthening demand from emerging markets and import substitution [1] - Six major judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, including the impact of tariff shocks, policy framework changes, and the new "three drivers" of economic growth [1] - The article emphasizes the resilience of exports, attributing the strong performance not to "export grabbing" but to mid-term resilience factors such as normal restocking cycles in developed countries and accelerated industrialization in emerging markets [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the current economic challenges, including weak domestic demand and fiscal constraints, and suggests that the government will enhance fiscal mechanisms to support economic transformation from investment-driven to consumption-led growth [5] - It highlights the increased scrutiny and accountability regarding hidden debts, particularly in lower-tier cities, indicating a shift towards more stringent regulatory measures [6] - The article discusses potential fiscal measures for the second half of 2025, including policy bank tools and government debt limits, to provide additional support if economic pressures arise [7] Group 3 - The article addresses the "anti-involution" movement, emphasizing its broader scope and stronger coordination compared to previous efforts, particularly in industries facing severe competition [8] - It points out that the current "anti-involution" initiative focuses on industry self-discipline and regional collaboration, aiming to alleviate the pressures of low-price competition [13] - The article corrects misconceptions about the nature of "involution," stressing that merely relying on upstream price increases will not effectively boost the Producer Price Index (PPI) [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a critical phase towards achieving modernization by 2035, focusing on high-quality development and key reforms [16] - It highlights the challenges posed by an aging population and the need for social security reform to ensure sustainability and equity in the system [18] - The article emphasizes the shift in industrial structure towards technology innovation and the importance of service sector development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [19][20] Group 5 - The article identifies new consumption trends driven by demographic changes, suggesting that the evolving population structure will create significant opportunities in new consumption spaces [21] - It notes the potential for a 3.3 trillion yuan investment gap in the service sector, indicating a broad growth opportunity in service-oriented investments [27] - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings, which is primarily driven by reduced housing expenditures, suggesting that these savings are likely to be directed towards investment rather than consumption [26]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, maintains the view that China's economy will exhibit a "high first, low later" trend by 2025, with a mild support policy expected to be introduced by the end of September or October, amounting to less than one trillion yuan [1][10][13] - The proposed support policy includes a plan to invest approximately 3 trillion yuan to acquire 1.5 million residential units in first- and second-tier cities, converting them into affordable housing to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the social security system [2][32][34] - The focus of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will be on stabilizing the real estate market, promoting a unified national market, and advancing new productive forces [18][20][21] Group 2 - The chemical industry and the outbound Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector are identified as two significant investment opportunities, particularly in the context of global market dynamics [8][6] - The anticipated support policy is expected to be mild, with a total investment of around 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan, aimed at addressing the economic downturn observed in July and August [9][14][13] - The central government's intervention in the real estate market is deemed necessary to reduce inventory and improve market expectations, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [22][24][32] Group 3 - The social security system's reform is crucial for increasing consumer confidence, with a target to raise the consumption share of GDP from below 40% to between 45% and 48% by 2030 [36][38][40] - The financial implications of enhancing the social security system are significant, with estimates suggesting an annual increase in central government subsidies to the social security fund by 1% of GDP, potentially costing 3 to 4 trillion yuan over five years [42][44] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by nearly 100 basis points, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and reduced attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds, impacting global asset prices [45][48][49]

Group 1: Forum Overview - The "World and China: Entrepreneurial Spirit and the 14th Five-Year Plan Outlook Forum" was successfully held in Guangzhou, gathering nearly 200 entrepreneurs from the Greater Bay Area along with renowned scholars and policymakers [1][2] - The forum focused on exploring the integration of entrepreneurial spirit with economic transformation, policy direction, and philosophical thinking in the context of global asset patterns [1][2] Group 2: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Philosophy - The president of the Bo Yan Philosophy Business School, Ouyang Qing, emphasized the importance of integrating science, philosophy, and religion in entrepreneurial spirit, highlighting that true entrepreneurs embody these three aspects [2][4] - Former Director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, Li Jiaxiang, discussed the significance of entrepreneurial spirit in facing uncertainties and the necessity of aligning ideals with scientific thinking for sustained success [4][6] Group 3: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable dialogue on "The Resilience and Inheritance of Entrepreneurial Spirit" featured discussions on mindset, practical actions, future foresight, and core values among a diverse group of entrepreneurs [6] - Participants included investors, traditional industry upgrade advocates, and pioneers of emerging industries, sharing insights from their experiences [6] Group 4: New Class Introduction - The opening ceremony for the 19th Financial Philosophy Industry Innovation Class highlighted the gathering of elite students from prestigious institutions, emphasizing the importance of philosophical thinking in navigating future challenges [8][10] - New student representative Li Zehang expressed the desire to explore global opportunities and achieve personal and corporate growth through the Bo Yan platform [10] Group 5: Keynote Speeches and Insights - The ceremony featured a keynote speech by Professor Wang Jun on "AI Civilization: The Twilight or New Dawn of Human Values," discussing the philosophical foundations of artificial intelligence and its implications for the future [13][17] - Economic commentator Fu Peng provided insights on the global economic transformation, emphasizing the impact of ideological divisions on economic models and the need for strategic asset allocation [17][19] Group 6: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The forum served as a platform for rich discussions on entrepreneurial spirit, innovation, and the implications of the 14th Five-Year Plan, providing valuable learning opportunities for participants [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market has achieved significant progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total market size exceeding 100 trillion yuan and a focus on high-quality development [2][29]. Group 1: Achievements of the Capital Market - The capital market has made five notable achievements, including a total market size surpassing 100 trillion yuan and enhanced service capabilities for the real economy [2]. - The market structure has been continuously optimized, with a significant increase in the proportion of direct financing, which rose by 2.8 percentage points to 31.6% [6]. - The total market value of A-shares has exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, reflecting a robust market environment [6]. Group 2: Regulatory and Institutional Developments - A comprehensive regulatory framework has been established, with over 60 supporting rules introduced following the "New Nine Measures" [3]. - The enforcement of regulations has intensified, with significant penalties imposed for financial fraud and market manipulation, including a record fine of 4.175 billion yuan against Evergrande [11]. - The market has seen a reduction in the number of "zombie" private equity firms, with approximately 7,000 institutions eliminated [13]. Group 3: Market Functionality and Investor Protection - The market's resilience and risk resistance have improved, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9% [7]. - Investor protection mechanisms have been strengthened, with a focus on enhancing the quality of information disclosure and corporate governance [20]. - The introduction of new regulations has facilitated the protection of investors, including compensation mechanisms for fraudulent activities [14]. Group 4: Future Directions and Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to enhance market competitiveness and attractiveness through comprehensive reforms, focusing on multi-level market systems and long-term capital [25][26]. - The CSRC plans to continue promoting the quality and investment value of listed companies, emphasizing the responsibilities of key stakeholders [27]. - The capital market will maintain a steady approach while deepening reforms to attract global capital and support China's modernization efforts [29].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) and the opportunities it presents for the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Opportunities - The company is actively positioning itself in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy, low-orbit satellites, and automotive electronics to seize related industrial upgrade opportunities [1] - The company has launched nearly 20 radiation-resistant new products in the commercial aerospace and drone sectors, with some products entering the small satellite selection directory, thereby expanding market space [1] Group 2: R&D and Innovation - The company plans to continuously increase R&D investment and technological innovation, with an annual goal of developing no less than 60 new products and promoting at least 50 new products each year [1] - The company aims to optimize customer structure, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and explore new emerging fields to address challenges and changes in the market [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, government stimulus plans, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global asset prices and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Potential Government Stimulus**: The Chinese government is expected to introduce a supplementary stimulus plan ranging from 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB to address economic downturns, with implementation anticipated by late September or October [3][5][24]. 2. **Focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan**: The plan will emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, promoting high-quality development, enhancing the national unified market, and advancing new productive forces to combat deflation and achieve a virtuous economic cycle [5][24]. 3. **Real Estate Market Intervention**: The central government may intervene by purchasing unsold residential properties to convert them into affordable housing, which would help clear inventory and improve living conditions for urban workers [7][11]. 4. **Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to increase global liquidity, raise asset prices, and potentially alter capital flows, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation strategies by investors [8][14]. 5. **Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The market for Chinese innovative drugs abroad, particularly in Hong Kong, shows significant potential, although current valuations and growth prospects require careful assessment [9][40]. 6. **Social Security Reform**: Enhancing social security and increasing state-owned enterprise dividend payouts are seen as crucial for improving consumer sentiment and stimulating domestic demand [5][13][24]. 7. **Stock Market Recovery**: The Chinese stock market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a positive impact on earnings expectations, which is crucial for sustainable market performance [26][36]. 8. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: High household savings rates in China, driven by inadequate social security, could be reduced through comprehensive reforms, potentially releasing significant consumer spending power [16][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Expectations**: There has been limited progress in restoring inflation expectations, with concerns about overcapacity in certain sectors and insufficient demand-side stimulus [22][24]. 2. **Global Chemical Industry Dynamics**: The chemical sector is experiencing changes due to anti-involution policies, which may affect global supply-demand relationships and pricing [42][44]. 3. **Investment Opportunities in Chemicals**: The chemical industry has seen a 10% average increase in stock prices since the introduction of anti-involution policies, indicating potential investment opportunities [49]. 4. **Long-term Economic Reforms**: The success of the 15th Five-Year Plan in implementing social security and fiscal reforms could lead to a gradual exit from deflation starting in 2027 [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated government actions, market dynamics, and broader economic implications.

Core Points - The year marks the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of scientific planning in governance and modernization of the governance system [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for implementing the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and advancing Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - Historical evidence shows that long-term planning has significantly contributed to China's economic development and social stability, transitioning from basic needs to overall well-being [2] Group 1 - The importance of scientific decision-making, democratic decision-making, and legal decision-making in the planning process is highlighted, ensuring that top-level design and public consultation are integrated [3][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" involved extensive public engagement, with over 311.3 million suggestions collected online, setting a precedent for public participation in planning [3][4] - The need for a systematic approach in planning is emphasized, focusing on the interconnections between micro and macro, local and overall, and current and long-term relationships [6] Group 2 - The establishment of effective channels for public consultation is necessary to gather genuine public opinion and enhance understanding of strategies and plans [4] - Utilizing digital technology can improve data collection and analysis, allowing for better understanding of public needs and governance challenges [5][6] - A systematic view is essential for integrating top-level design with public input, ensuring that societal concerns are embedded in the overall planning framework [6]