Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.1% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. The Q2 results reflect a substantial impact from the "ban on alcohol" policy in Anhui, leading to a near halving of demand [1][6]. - The company has chosen to limit shipments to accurately reflect market conditions and maintain healthy channel relationships. There is an expectation for demand recovery in Q3, contingent on the implementation of policies [1][6]. - Due to external demand pressures, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][6]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 721 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 70.9% [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 20.9 billion yuan, with a current share price of 35.01 yuan and a PB ratio of 2.0 for 2025 [3][14]. Performance Analysis - The report indicates a significant decline in high-end liquor sales, with Q2 2025 revenue from high-end liquor at 660 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year. Mid-range and low-end liquor saw smaller declines of 7.7% and 7.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with high-end liquor gross margin at 75.0% [6][7]. - The company has reduced promotional and advertising expenditures, leading to a decline in sales and management expense ratios [6][7].

尽管美国企业第二季度盈利表现超出预期，但高盛警告称，市场对2026年利润率的普遍预测可能过于乐 观。 高盛首席美股策略师David Kostin在8月15日给客户的报告中指出，标普500指数每股收益同比增长 11%，几乎是分析师此前预测4%增幅的三倍。 这一优异表现主要源于分析师今年早些时候大幅下调了预期。约60%的上市公司盈利超出预期一个标准 差以上，反映出此前的盈利预期门槛设置过低。 企业展望也明显转向乐观。58%的公司上调了2025年业绩指引，比例是一季度的两倍。分析师随之调高 了多数行业2025年末和2026年的盈利预测，不过，他们仍预计标普500指数盈利增速将从二季度的11% 放缓至今年下半年的7%。 利润率成为关键隐忧。Kostin表示，尽管关税影响迄今弱于预期，但2026年利润率预测中隐含的"大幅 扩张"看起来并不现实——即使企业能持续抵消成本上升压力。他预计未来几个季度分析师将下调预 测，但幅度不会超过长期趋势水平。 美元走弱带来额外助力，推动大型企业当季名义销售额增长。但按固定汇率计算，标普500指数实际销 售增速放缓，中小型企业则出现萎缩。分析师目前预测，2025年下半年各市值板块销售趋势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Cheung Kong Infrastructure's net profit for the first half of the year is HKD 4.35 billion, with core net profit growing by 2% year-on-year to HKD 4.28 billion, meeting market expectations, driven by strong performance in the UK business [1] - The report anticipates that in the upcoming reset period, more favorable terms will drive single asset profit growth, with the group expected to achieve an annual profit growth of 9% to 10% over the next 2 to 3 years [1] - The earnings per share forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 has been revised down by 4% to 5%, with the target price slightly reduced from HKD 60.2 to HKD 60, while maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] Group 2 - Cheung Kong Infrastructure Group (01038.HK) plans to hold a board meeting on August 13 to approve its interim results [2] - Huatai Securities has initiated coverage on Cheung Kong Infrastructure Group, giving a target price of HKD 64.73 and a "buy" rating [2]

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts forecast Jack Henry (JKHY) will report quarterly earnings of $1.46 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.8% [1] - Anticipated revenues are projected to be $602.59 million, showing a 7.6% increase compared to the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenue- Core' to reach $185.97 million, representing an 8.1% year-over-year change [5] - 'Revenue- Corporate & Other' is forecasted at $19.97 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.8% year-over-year [5] - 'Revenue- Complementary' is projected to be $171.65 million, reflecting a 10.6% increase from the previous year [5] Segment Income Estimates - 'Revenue- Payments' is expected to be $227.46 million, with a year-over-year increase of 7% [6] - 'Segment Income- Core' is projected at $113.06 million, up from $102.14 million in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Segment Income- Complementary' is estimated to reach $102.90 million, compared to $90.85 million a year ago [6] - The consensus estimate for 'Segment Income- Payments' stands at $110.13 million, up from $100.81 million in the same quarter last year [7] Stock Performance - Shares of Jack Henry have shown a return of -8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.5% change [7] - Jack Henry holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [7]

Core Viewpoint - UBS downgraded China Electric Power Holdings (00002) from "Buy" to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from HKD 74 to HKD 70 due to short-term pressures on the company's fundamentals from unfavorable overseas factors [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Company Performance - China Electric's Hong Kong operations remain strong and predictable, but earnings pressure from Australia and mainland China is evident in the first half of 2025 [1] - The underperformance of non-local businesses may limit expected earnings growth for the fiscal year 2025, leading to a flat annual dividend per share, contrary to previous forecasts of a 3% increase [1] Dividend Forecast - UBS maintains a long-term forecast of a 3% average annual growth in dividends from 2026 to 2029, anticipating a gradual return to stable growth after the stabilization of non-local businesses [1] Market Comparison - The forward dividend yield of 4.8% for China Electric has narrowed to below the historical average by one standard deviation, compared to a 49 basis point yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating reduced attractiveness relative to the industry average of 73 basis points [1] Earnings Projections - UBS has lowered its earnings forecasts for China Electric for 2025 to 2027 by 11%, 8%, and 7% respectively, reflecting last year's performance and the disappointing results of non-local businesses, particularly in mainland China and Australia [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][25]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-year performance for 2025 that met expectations, with a revenue of USD 4.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 171 million, down 7.2% year-on-year [7][9]. - The manufacturing segment showed steady growth in orders, with revenue reaching USD 2.8 billion, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, driven by a robust demand in the footwear market [7]. - The retail segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue declining by 8.3% year-on-year to RMB 9.16 billion, primarily due to weak domestic consumption and store adjustments [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: USD 7.89 billion - 2024: USD 8.18 billion - 2025E: USD 8.27 billion - 2026E: USD 8.60 billion - 2027E: USD 8.97 billion - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: USD 275 million - 2024: USD 392 million - 2025E: USD 361 million - 2026E: USD 411 million - 2027E: USD 439 million [7][16]. Manufacturing Business Performance - The manufacturing business achieved a capacity utilization rate of 93%, with a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points [7]. - The average selling price per pair of shoes rose to USD 20.61, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, driven by a favorable order mix [7]. - The gross margin for the manufacturing segment decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 17.7%, attributed to rising labor costs and uneven capacity loading [7]. Retail Business Performance - The retail business saw a significant decline in net profit, down 44% year-on-year to RMB 1.88 billion, impacted by weak consumer demand [7]. - The number of direct-operated stores decreased by 40 to 3,408, with offline sales revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year [7]. - Online sales through all channels grew by 16% year-on-year, with live-streaming sales doubling [7]. Inventory and Cost Management - The manufacturing segment maintained stable inventory turnover days at 51 days, while the retail segment saw an increase to 146 days [7]. - The manufacturing business effectively controlled expenses, with selling and administrative expenses accounting for 10.3% of revenue, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is the largest sports shoe manufacturer globally and the second-largest sports goods retailer in China, with a strong presence in the global sports industry [7]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of USD 360 million, USD 410 million, and USD 440 million respectively [7]. - The target price is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times for 2025, indicating over 20% upside potential from the current price [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 showed a revenue of 11.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.7% [7] - The decline in Q2 performance is attributed to falling oil prices, which narrowed product price spreads, maintenance costs from PDH unit repairs, and a decrease in operating rates due to tariff impacts. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.56%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company anticipates a recovery in C3 profitability in the second half of the year, driven by new production capacities in high polymer emulsions and other products [7] - The new materials project has faced delays due to US-China trade tensions, but the company expects to gradually increase production capacity in the second half of 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 6.2 billion yuan from the previous 6.9 billion yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 7.7 billion yuan and 9.3 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 52.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.6%. The net profit forecast is 6.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.4% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.9% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Deere (DE) is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with analysts predicting earnings of $4.62 per share, a decrease of 26.6% year-over-year, and revenues of $10.26 billion, down 9.9% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating that analysts have not revised their initial projections [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate that 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Net sales' will reach $10.18 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.6% [5]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Construction & forestry net sales' is projected to be $3.11 billion, indicating a decrease of 4% year-over-year [5]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Agriculture and Turf' is expected to be $7.07 billion, down 13.3% from the prior-year quarter [6]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Small ag & turf net sales' is forecasted at $2.78 billion, a decline of 8.9% year-over-year [6]. - The estimate for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Production & precision ag net sales' stands at $4.28 billion, reflecting a 16% decrease from the year-ago quarter [7]. - Overall 'Net Sales and Revenues- Net sales' is projected to be $10.17 billion, down 10.7% year-over-year [7]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Other revenues' is expected to reach $274.89 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.4% [7]. Financial Services Revenue - Analysts predict 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services revenues' will likely reach $1.51 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.7% [8]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Total' is expected to be $1.62 billion, reflecting a decrease of 3.1% year-over-year [8]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Finance and Interest Income' is projected at $1.49 billion, indicating a decline of 3.3% [9]. - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Other Income' is estimated at $129.33 million, down 0.5% year-over-year [9]. - The estimate for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Finance and interest income' is $134.75 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 13.1% [10]. Stock Performance - Shares of Deere have experienced a decline of 0.4% over the past month, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11]. - With a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), Deere is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Jerry Co., Ltd. has experienced significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by concentrated orders and strong performance in overseas and natural gas businesses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.21% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.241 billion, up 14.04% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.231 billion, reflecting a growth of 33.9% [1]. - The high-end equipment manufacturing business generated revenue of 4.224 billion, growing 22.42% year-on-year, although the gross margin slightly declined by 5.25% [2]. Business Segments - The natural gas business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 112.69%, with a gross margin improvement of 5.61%, contributing to an 88.14% revenue growth in oil and gas engineering and technical services [2]. - The overall gross margin of the company decreased by 3.46% due to the lower margin in oil and gas engineering [2]. - The company executed cash collection measures, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase of 196.36% in operating cash flow net [2]. Order Growth and Quality - New orders signed during the reporting period amounted to 9.881 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.65%, with existing orders at 12.386 billion, up 34.76% [2]. - The natural gas segment's new orders grew by 43.28%, outpacing the overall order growth rate [2]. - The quality of overseas orders improved, contributing to a steady increase in overseas business gross margins [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with the natural gas business driving over 88% growth in oil and gas engineering [3]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.021 billion, 3.463 billion, and 4.149 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.0, 13.1, and 10.9 [3]. - The company is considered undervalued compared to peers such as CNOOC Engineering, Petrochemical Machinery, and China Oilfield Services, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]. Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 13 institutions provided ratings for the stock, with 11 recommending "buy" and 2 recommending "hold" [4]. - The average target price from institutions over the past 90 days is 50.02 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group (002497) has seen a stock price increase of 5.61%, closing at 15.06 yuan, following a report from Minsheng Securities that gives a "buy" rating for the company, projecting significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Summary - For 2025, Yahua Group's main revenue is projected at 1.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 824.644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 452.32% - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted at 686.043 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 786.72% - The company's debt ratio stands at 22.49%, with investment income of 116.059 million yuan and financial expenses of 107.791 million yuan - The gross profit margin is reported at 18.22% [1][1][1] Institutional Ratings - In the last 90 days, three institutions have provided ratings for Yahua Group, all of which are "buy" ratings [1] Financing and Margin Trading - Over the past three months, the net inflow of financing has reached 388 million yuan, indicating an increase in financing balance - The net inflow of margin trading is 1.2308 million yuan, with an increase in margin trading balance [1][1]