光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 国内基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民币贷款 | 震荡 | | | 6200 亿元人民币，比上年同期少增 3300 亿元。化债背景下信用收缩、需求 | | | | 不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上 | | | | 半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股 | | | | 指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期未来指数仍以震荡为主。 | | | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.22%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年 | | | | 期主力合约涨 0.01%，5 年期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行开展 3653 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 1563 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | | 投放 2090 亿元。2025 年 6 月 25 日中国人民银行将以固定 ...

首席点评：稳定币是机遇也是挑战 国际货币基金组织（ IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机遇， 也存在挑战，核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管，需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。欧洲央 行担忧，稳定币可能威胁金融稳定并影响数字欧元推行，但欧盟委员会认为风险可控。伊朗议会通过一 项法案，暂停伊朗与联合国核监督机构的合作。美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在 的核协议展开会谈。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依 据，而不是过于自信地做出预测，某个时候美联储将会恢复降息。国务院总理表示当前国际经贸格局正 在发生深刻变化，我们应当坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界 经济稳定发展。海外美股涨跌不一，美债收益率回落，原油止跌，国内夜盘能化、农产品、黑色板块多 数上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、橡胶 贵金属：金银小幅反弹。以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一 项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议 "有多必要"。美联储主席鲍威尔在国 会证词中表示，美联储目前处 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 丁雅栀】6月24日，亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）理事会在第十届年会期间宣 布，选举中国财政部前副部长邹加怡担任亚投行下一任行长。她将于2026年1月16日正式接替现任行长 金立群，开启五年任期。 亚投行"朋友圈"也越来越大，成员数量从57个创始成员增至目前的110个，遍布全球六大洲，覆盖世界 81%的人口和全球65%的GDP；项目越投越多。截至目前，已批准322个项目，批准融资总额超600亿美 元，带动超2000亿美元资金投入到基础设施建设；受益成员分布越来越广。惠及38个亚洲域内与域外成 员，除了亚洲，还分布在非洲、拉美等地，涵盖能源、交通、水利、公共卫生与教育等领域，多个项目 成为国际合作典范。体现了其作为新型多边开发机构的独特价值和影响力，也赢得了国际社会广泛认 可。 外交部发言人郭嘉昆24日表示，自成立以来，在各成员的共同支持下，亚投行坚持国际性、规范性和高 标准运营，实现跨越式发展，成为全球多边开发机构体系新的重要一员，为促进全球基础设施建设和可 持续发展作出积极贡献。 郭嘉昆介绍，本届年会以"互联助力发展，合作共创繁荣"为主题，将总结亚投行过去十年发展成绩，规 划下个十年发 ...

Core Points - The UN Charter, established 80 years ago, remains a foundational document for international cooperation and peace, emphasizing principles such as maintaining international peace and security, promoting cooperation, and ensuring sovereign equality [1][5] - Current global challenges, including the Ukraine conflict and humanitarian crises, highlight a growing deficit in peace, development, security, and governance, exacerbated by hegemonic and unilateral actions from powerful nations [1][2] - The international community is responding to violations of international law, particularly regarding military actions against Iran, with calls for adherence to the UN Charter and collective action to uphold justice and peace [3][4] Group 1 - The UN Charter's principles are not outdated but are often disregarded, leading to widespread inequality and injustice [2] - The need for global unity and solutions is more pressing than ever, as emphasized by UN Secretary-General António Guterres [2][3] - Upholding the spirit of the Charter is essential for building a fairer global governance system and countering hegemonic practices [3][4] Group 2 - China has proposed various initiatives aimed at enhancing global governance, aligning with the UN Charter's goals of international cooperation [4][5] - As a founding member of the UN, China actively supports multilateralism and has contributed significantly to UN efforts, reinforcing its role as a key partner in promoting sustainable development [4][5] - The ongoing global changes necessitate a commitment to the UN's authority and the principles of international law to ensure a stable international order [5][6]

Core Points - The meeting between China's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Miao Deyu, and the Executive Director of the UN Office for Project Services, Das Silva, highlights the current challenges faced by the international system centered around the United Nations [1] - China emphasizes its commitment to true multilateralism and the importance of maintaining the authority and status of the United Nations in international affairs [1] - The UN Office for Project Services expresses gratitude for China's steadfast support and looks forward to deepening cooperation with China to advance the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda [1] - Discussions included enhancing cooperation in areas such as UN procurement [1]

金十数据6月25日讯，2025年6月25日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在京集体会见欧盟及成员各 国驻华使节。王毅就中欧关系未来发展提出三点建议：一是坚持相互尊重，特别是切实尊重彼此核心利 益和关切。二是坚持伙伴定位，过去50年中欧关系发展历程证明，中欧是伙伴，不是对手，更不是敌 人。中欧没有领土争端，没有地缘政治矛盾，更没有根本利害冲突。中方始终从战略高度和长远角度看 待中欧关系，希望欧方同中方相向而行，使合作成为中欧关系的主基调。三是坚持多边主义，中欧要顺 应潮流，增进了解，构建互信。欧盟驻华代表团团长和欧盟各成员国驻华使节表示，中国始终是欧盟重 要合作伙伴，欧方愿同中方携手面向未来，发展建设性和稳定的欧中关系，共同应对全球性挑战，就地 区热点问题加强沟通协调，维护多边主义，促进世界和平与安全。 （外交部） 相关链接 王毅集体会见欧盟及成员国驻华使节 ...

6月25日上午，国务院总理李强在天津出席2 0 2 5年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式 并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。 中国将继续 积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 01 潘功胜：区域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击｜宏观经济 李强表示，中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。多年来，中国经济之所 以是世界经济增长的重要引擎，不仅在于自身的稳定性和高成长性，还在于中国经济的开放性和与世界 经济的联动性。中国经济持续稳健增长，将为世界经济加快复苏提供有力支撑。中国市场持续扩容提 质，将为国际经贸扭转颓势创造增量空间。中国创新持续突破跃升，将为全球发展摆脱动能不足注入新 的活力。 李强强调，这次论坛以"新时代企业家精神"为主题，具有重要现实意义。新时代需要企业家们发挥更大 作用、展现更大作为。希望大家多行大道之事，多干开拓之事，多做共赢之事。中国政府将持续打造市 场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，也将始终敞开怀抱，热诚欢迎各国企业投资中国、深耕中国，与 中国一起发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing inclusive economic globalization and maintaining free trade and multilateralism to promote stable global economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Landscape - The international economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes, with a more diversified trade system and the rapid rise of global southern powers [1]. - Traditional trade growth is slowing down, while emerging trade is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1]. - There is an increase in regional cooperation amidst the challenges faced by global mechanisms, and cross-border investment is experiencing downward volatility [1]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - China aims to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to the world economy, leveraging its stability, high growth, and openness [2]. - The continuous and robust growth of the Chinese economy is expected to provide strong support for the global economic recovery [2]. - China's expanding and improving market will create new opportunities for international trade [2]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Cooperation - The forum's theme, "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era," highlights the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role and achieve greater accomplishments [2]. - The Chinese government is committed to creating a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized [2]. - China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and deepen their engagement in the Chinese market, aiming for mutual development and a better future [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing inclusive economic globalization and maintaining free trade and multilateralism to promote stable global economic development [1][2]. Group 1: International Economic Landscape - The current international economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes, with a more diversified trade system and the rapid rise of global South powers [1]. - Traditional trade growth is slowing down, while emerging trade is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1]. - There is an increase in regional cooperation amidst the challenges faced by global mechanisms, and cross-border investment is experiencing downward volatility [1]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - China aims to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to the world economy, leveraging its stability, high growth, and openness [2]. - The continuous and robust growth of the Chinese economy is expected to provide strong support for the global economic recovery [2]. - China's expanding and improving market will create new opportunities for international trade [2]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Business Environment - The forum's theme, "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era," highlights the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role and achieve greater accomplishments [2]. - The Chinese government is committed to creating a first-class business environment characterized by marketization, rule of law, and internationalization [2]. - China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and deepen their engagement in the Chinese market, aiming for mutual development and a better future [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of China and the European Union (EU) collaborating to advance global human rights governance amidst significant global challenges such as unilateralism, protectionism, and governance deficits [3][6][7]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Challenges - This year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the EU, highlighting a stable development trend despite historical challenges [3]. - The world is facing unprecedented challenges, including peace deficits and governance crises, necessitating a cooperative approach to human rights governance [3][6]. Group 2: Principles for Cooperation - The article outlines several principles for China and the EU to follow in promoting global human rights governance: - Adherence to fairness, justice, and inclusivity as universal values in addressing global human rights issues [9][10]. - Commitment to genuine multilateralism, emphasizing collective decision-making and respect for international law [11]. - A rules-based approach grounded in international law, contrasting with power-based approaches that lead to unilateralism [12]. - Enhancing the effectiveness of international human rights mechanisms through dialogue and cooperation, addressing the current confrontational atmosphere [15].