"人民币有望加快恢复性升值。2025年以来人民币呈现对一篮子（货币）贬值而对美元升值的特点，美 元指数下跌了10%左右，而人民币升值幅度为2%至3%，明显落后于全球其他非美货币。"汇管研究院副 院长赵庆明对智通财经说。 中国货币网最新数据显示，8月29日，CFETS人民币汇率指数（用于综合反映人民币对一篮子货币的汇 率变动）报96.57，较上年底跌4.8%。 对于人民币对美元汇率能否升破7，分析师认为，重点需要关注中美利差、持汇者的结汇意愿以及人民 币中间价。综合来看，他们认为短期内破7的可能性较小。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平表示，随着美联储重启降息预期强化和中美关税博弈的阶段性缓和， 人民币相对于美元将获得新的升值动力。但由于中国货币政策同样处于偏松状态，短期内未必会出现单 边大幅度走强的态势。 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛认为，人民币汇率的三大支柱——中美利差、政策风险溢价、购买力平价 ——均在朝着有利于升值的方向变化，央行中间价和外资加仓中国股票是额外的催化剂。 近期随着人民币对美元汇率逼近7.1，市场对于人民币汇率能否破"7"的讨论逐渐增多。分析人士认为， 人民币汇率能否升破7，取决于多个因素，包 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) reflects a strong upward trend, with a 0.64% appreciation since August and over 2% year-to-date, indicating a "steady and strong" market condition [1] External Factors - The weakening of the US dollar and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to a declining dollar index, providing a favorable environment for RMB appreciation [1] - The RMB's previous slow appreciation has now accelerated, allowing it to catch up more quickly [1] Internal Factors - Domestic policies and capital flows have positively impacted the stock market, attracting foreign investment back into China [1] - The central bank's steady appreciation of the midpoint rate and issuance of offshore central bank bills have sent clear signals to the market, improving cross-border capital flows and stabilizing market confidence [1] Future Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to remain stable and improve, supported by consumption upgrades, technological innovation, and green transformation, which will likely keep the RMB exchange rate resilient and stable within a reasonable range [1] - There is potential for the RMB to gradually achieve "three prices in one" as part of its ongoing appreciation [1] - The recent appreciation is seen not as a mere coincidence but as a reflection of the underlying economic strength [1]

原文转自：上海证券报·中国证券网 9月4日，人民币兑美元中间价上调56个基点，报7.1052。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1052元，1欧元对人民币8.2970元，100日元对人民币4.8112元，1港元对人民币0.91115元，1 英镑对人民币9.5654元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6584元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1889元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5264元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8491元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1595元，人民币1元对1.1310澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59310马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3431俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4826南非兰 特，人民币1元对195.07韩元，人民币1元对0.51584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52703沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.3989匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51233波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8997丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3243瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4101挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.77788土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.6286 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1052元，1欧元对人民币8.2970元，100日元对人民币4.8112元，1港元对人民币0.91115 元，1英镑对人民币9.5654元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6584元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1889元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5264元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8491元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1595元，人民币1元对1.1310 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59310马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3431俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4826南 非兰特，人民币1元对195.07韩元，人民币1元对0.51584阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52703沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.3989匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51233波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8997丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3243瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4101挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.77788土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.6286墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5280泰铢。 （责任编辑：华青剑） 中国经济网北京9月4日讯 来自 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为3.4%，降息25个基点的概率为96.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为1.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 51.6%。 内外因素推动 人民币汇率有望继续走强 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 9月4日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1052，上调56.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为96.6% ...

9月3日，在岸人民币对美元汇率小幅上涨。Wind数据显示，截至当日16时30分，该市场汇率报7.1468 元，较前一交易日收盘价上涨8个基点。近期，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率呈现上涨趋势。专家表 示，人民币汇率快速上涨受内外因素共振驱动，包括美元指数偏弱运行创造了相对温和的外部环境、人 民币对美元中间价报价释放较强的汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼或在一定程度上吸引 了外资流入等。展望未来，人民币汇率将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。（中证报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations for the RMB to maintain stability at a reasonable equilibrium level in the future [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of September 3, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1468, an increase of 8 basis points from the previous trading day [2][4]. - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate showed a slight decline, reported at 7.1459, down 74 basis points from the previous close [2]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted downwards to 7.1108, a decrease of 19 basis points [2]. - From August 29 to September 3, the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by 0.64% and 0.88% respectively, while year-to-date increases were 2.08% and 2.61% [2]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The RMB's rapid appreciation is attributed to multiple factors, including a weaker US dollar and improved cross-border capital flows [4][6]. - The decline in the US dollar index has created a favorable external environment, while the RMB's middle price has provided strong expectations for future appreciation [4][6]. - The recent performance of the domestic equity market has attracted foreign capital inflows, further supporting the RMB's strength [4][6]. Economic Outlook - Experts believe that the current positive momentum in China's economy will be further solidified, contributing to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [5][6]. - Continued policy support and structural economic transformation are expected to provide a solid foundation for the RMB's stable performance [5][6]. - The RMB is anticipated to gradually converge in value across onshore, offshore, and central parity rates, with ongoing demand for currency settlement supporting its strength [6].

9月3日，在岸人民币对美元汇率小幅上涨。Wind数据显示，截至当日16时30分，该市场汇率报7.1468 元，较前一交易日收盘价上涨8个基点。 近期，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率呈现上涨趋势。专家表示，人民币汇率快速上涨受内外因素共振驱 动，包括美元指数偏弱运行创造了相对温和的外部环境、人民币对美元中间价报价释放较强的汇率预期 引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼或在一定程度上吸引了外资流入等。展望未来，人民币汇率将在 合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 整体走强 9月3日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率走势略有分化。Wind数据显示，截至当日16时30分，在岸人民 币对美元汇率报7.1468元，较前一交易日上涨8个基点，盘中最高报7.1374元。离岸人民币对美元汇率略 有下跌，16时30分报7.1459元，较前一交易日收盘价跌74个基点。 9月3日，人民币对美元中间价也稍有调降。中国货币网数据显示，当日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1108 元，较前一交易日调降19个基点。 ● 本报记者 连润 彭扬 专家分析，本轮人民币汇率快速升值，主要受多重因素推动。 美元偏弱等外部因素推动人民币汇率快速升值。"今年以来美元指数跌幅显著， ...

8月下旬，人民币对美元汇率结束了两个月的低波运行，而后出现较大幅度升值。今日，人民币急升后出现小幅回调。 每经记者注意到，本次快速升值，时间上始于美联储主席鲍威尔8月22日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话。 人民币汇率的决定因素十分复杂，既有一些长期的、根本性的因素，又有一些短期的、关键性的因素。对于本轮升值，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指 出，最近人民币升值既与美联储降息信号有关，也与国内股市走强、人民币中间价的调控作用有关。 "我们认为，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，仍是当前稳汇市政策的核心目标。"王青表示，接下来人民币汇率仍将以稳为主，持续升值或 大幅贬值的风险都不大。 在市场看空美元、看多人民币之际，8月25日，人民币汇率中间价由7.1321调整至7.1161，这也是自去年11月以来，人民币汇率中间价首次被设在7.12以 下。 对于8月下旬以来的人民币快速升值，王青对记者表示，主要有三个驱动力：一是鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上罕见释放降息信号，美元指数承 压，这为包括人民币在内的非美货币带来被动升值动能。二是近期国内股市走强，外资加速流入。这在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也在改善汇市情绪。最 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. Treasury bond market and its implications for the domestic economy, particularly in relation to the Chinese market and currency dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Treasury Rates on Currency**: Fluctuations in U.S. Treasury rates directly affect the USD/CNY exchange rate, which in turn constrains domestic monetary policy and expectations for easing [1][3][4] 2. **Shift in Investment Preferences**: There has been a notable shift of resident deposits towards wealth management products, dollar deposits, and U.S. Treasuries, leading to an expanded foreign exchange deficit and negatively impacting domestic risk assets [1][3] 3. **Attraction of A-Shares**: Since 2025, the actual yield on U.S. Treasuries has decreased due to expectations of rate cuts, making A-share dividends, which may approach 5%, more attractive compared to U.S. Treasuries yielding only 1% to 2% [1][3] 4. **Factors Influencing Treasury Rate Pricing**: U.S. Treasury rates are influenced by economic data, policy changes, and market sentiment, with significant volatility observed in 2025 due to various economic indicators and policy announcements [1][4][5] 5. **Global Economic Instability**: The current global economic environment is unstable, with significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury and dollar markets, influenced by political events in France and Japan, as well as a reversal in global equity markets [1][6] 6. **Short-term Treasury Maturities**: In Q2 2025, $6 trillion in U.S. Treasuries are set to mature, primarily short-term bonds, which are not expected to significantly impact Treasury rates or dollar credit due to stable long-term issuance patterns [1][7] 7. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Despite concerns about foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries, data indicates that while some countries like China have sold off, major holders like Japan and the UK have increased their holdings, leading to an overall increase in non-U.S. government Treasury reserves [1][8] 8. **Fiscal Sustainability Concerns**: Long-term risks regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability are highlighted, with the potential for high borrowing to continue unless effective fiscal reforms are implemented [2][9][12] 9. **Government Spending Structure**: The U.S. government’s spending structure is deemed unhealthy, with a heavy reliance on necessary expenditures and insufficient contributions from corporate taxes, necessitating a resolution of supply-demand imbalances for sustainable development [12][14] 10. **Future Economic Outlook**: The impact of new fiscal legislation on the U.S. economy is significant, with a focus on whether the government can achieve effective fiscal consolidation or will continue to rely on high levels of borrowing [15] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and Treasury rates is crucial, as short-term rates are directly influenced by Fed decisions, while long-term rates reflect market expectations of the U.S. economy [11] - The Treasury's cash management strategies, including the current balance of the Treasury General Account (TGA), are expected to have limited impact on market liquidity and Treasury rates in the near term [10]