有分析指出，关税战对美国的影响很大，因为这直接破坏了国际贸易秩序和美国经济秩序。现在美国财 政赤字已经失控，无法偿还36万亿美元的巨额债务，"美国接近破产"已经成为全球性共识。因此，特朗 普如果拿不出能立即遏制赤字增加的重大决策，那么美国破产的可能性将无限接近100%。而且，在经 过了大半年的折腾后，美国"政府效率部"的支出削减改革彻底失败，特朗普只剩"加税"一条路。虽然美 国与欧盟、日本、韩国等达成贸易协议，但并没有马上签署，而且欧盟和日本内部对协议执行的反对声 音很强烈。从这个情况看，想用"关税战"施压他国帮美国化债，可行性并不高。这种局面下，国际投资 者对美债更不看好，美债收益率一路上涨，美联储就不敢进行降息。 而且，就在中美会谈结束后，美联储宣布维持利率，而且还强调9月进行降息为时过早。这个情况，对 特朗普来说，无疑是一个噩耗。要知道，特朗普一直在施压美联储主席鲍威尔，要求他尽快降息。在上 周，特朗普还戴着安全帽现身美联储工地，一番话让鲍威尔哑口无言。但这个情况也说明，特朗普其实 对鲍威尔没有什么办法，只能靠"色厉内荏"的言语施压，给自己争取一些面子。而鲍威尔也不是"软柿 子"，他看似内敛低调，但决断 ...

Group 1 - The core question raised by a user on a U.S. social platform is why China continues to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds despite the U.S. being unable to repay its debts, highlighting a complex international financial game and strategic considerations [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are key assets in the global financial system, characterized by high security, liquidity, and a significant scale, making them a preferred choice for foreign exchange reserves [6][8] - China's investment in U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by rational financial logic rather than emotional factors, as it seeks safe and liquid investment channels for its substantial dollar reserves accumulated from trade surpluses [11] Group 2 - As the U.S. debt continues to grow, China is adjusting its strategy by increasing investments in gold and raising the proportion of non-dollar assets, aiming for a more diversified foreign exchange reserve structure [13][29] - Purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds allows China to manage foreign exchange reserve risks while providing stable returns and liquidity, making them a preferred asset for reserve management [14][16] - The purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds also maintains the interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies, as the flow of dollars back to the U.S. supports American consumption [22] Group 3 - Despite benefits from purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, there are concerns in the U.S. about the return on investment due to the large debt scale, with some U.S. politicians suggesting that the U.S. may not repay its debts [23] - The likelihood of U.S. default is extremely low, as it would lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit system and a severe economic crisis for the U.S. [25] - China's strategy adjustment and the trend of "de-dollarization" reflect a decreasing reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds, with an increasing focus on the internationalization of the yuan [27][30] Group 4 - The gradual reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China increases financing pressure on the U.S., and if more countries follow suit, the global dominance of the dollar could be significantly challenged [30][33] - China's decision to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds is a well-considered rational choice, allowing for effective management of foreign exchange reserves, while the ongoing adjustments do not indicate an immediate rupture in U.S.-China economic relations [33]

Core Insights - As of August 11, the total federal government debt in the United States has exceeded $37 trillion [2] - The federal debt reached the statutory limit of $31.4 trillion in January 2023, indicating a significant increase in borrowing [2] - The U.S. government debt is projected to surpass $35 trillion by July 2024 and $36 trillion by November 2024 [2] - The escalating national debt is becoming a "hot potato," posing risks to long-term economic growth in the U.S. and potentially dragging down global economic development [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Underperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - US inflation data is divided, with July CPI lower than expected but PPI far exceeding expectations. However, most institutions maintain the prediction of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, and the market fully prices in two interest rate cuts within the year [2] - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference is expected to focus on the policy framework rather than interest rate cut guidance. Powell may use the framework adjustment to re - emphasize the central bank's independence, and there is a potential "expectation gap" risk [3] - US Treasury yields have risen, and the yield curve has become steeper. It is recommended to maintain medium - and short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation and moderately increase high - grade Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, while being cautious about long - end fluctuations [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The figures related to 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios of various maturities, issuance winning bid rates of 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance volume of US Treasuries, and the implied number of interest rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market are presented [14][22][24] 2. US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Data on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claims, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions are shown [28][30][42] 3. Exchange Rates - Information about the one - year trend of non - US currencies, changes in non - US currencies in the past two weeks, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange hedging cost is provided [56][58][60] 4. Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The price trends of US dollar bonds in the US, the combined US - European US dollar bonds, global investment - grade US dollar bonds, and global high - yield US dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds are presented, along with the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price increases and decreases of US Treasury ETFs of different maturities [63][68][72] 5. Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by grade and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by grade and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector are shown [81][84][89] 6. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 8 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, and 2 initial ratings [91]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the extension of the US-China tariff measures for 90 days, highlighting the underlying strategic negotiations between the two nations [1][3] - The US is pressuring China to increase soybean imports significantly, aiming to reduce the trade deficit, despite the impracticality of this approach given the scale of the deficit and China's current sourcing from Brazil [3][9] - China's position is clear: it seeks a balanced resolution to trade issues, emphasizing the need for the US to lift restrictions on key exports like advanced chips, rather than solely focusing on agricultural products [3][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations regarding rare earth exports from China and the US's restrictions on chip exports, indicating that both sides have specific demands that need to be addressed for progress [3][6] - The US's economic situation, including a national debt exceeding $37 trillion, adds pressure to avoid escalating tariffs, as this could lead to significant domestic financial instability [6][7] - Political pressures within the US are also influencing negotiations, with some factions criticizing the administration for perceived leniency towards China, complicating the negotiation dynamics [7][9] Group 3 - The article notes that China has established stable supply channels for soybeans, reducing its urgency to import from the US, while also accelerating its own chip development to lessen reliance on foreign technology [9] - The future of US-China trade relations hinges on both parties demonstrating genuine willingness to negotiate in good faith, with mutual respect being essential for a successful resolution [9]

Group 1: Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a rebound, with major indices such as the Nasdaq rising by 3.9% and the S&P 500 by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging markets also saw gains, with the Ho Chi Minh Index up 6.0% and the Cairo CASE 30 up 4.7%, while the Indian SENSEX fell by 0.9% [3][11] - The Hang Seng Index and related indices all rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.2% [11] Group 2: Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 8.4% to $66.4 per barrel [26][27] - Coking coal prices surged by 12.3% to 1,227 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand [26][30] - Precious metals saw an increase, with COMEX gold rising by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce and silver up by 4.4% to $38.4 per ounce [30][31] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July in the U.S. was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June fell by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46] Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, with exemptions for companies that establish or commit to establishing manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - Additionally, a 25% tariff on Indian goods was implemented, totaling 50%, effective from August 28 [32] Group 5: Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auction for 10-year bonds saw weaker demand, with a high yield of 4.26% and a tail of 1.13 basis points, indicating reduced interest from investors [34] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields on other developed market bonds generally declined [16][19] Group 6: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump nominated Miran to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, which may influence future monetary policy [36] - Market reactions to the nomination included a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting expectations of a more dovish stance [36]

Core Viewpoint - The recent discourse around "Qing Dynasty bonds" by some U.S. media and politicians, claiming that China owes $1.6 trillion in "old debts," is fundamentally flawed and politically motivated, disregarding international law and historical context [1][5]. Group 1: Nature of the Bonds - The so-called "Qing Dynasty bonds" were issued during the late Qing Dynasty for purposes such as railway construction and war reparations, but due to regime changes and turmoil, they have become unclaimed historical artifacts [1]. - According to international law's "clean slate" principle, the new Chinese government established in 1949 is not obligated to inherit the foreign debts of the previous regime [3]. Group 2: Legal Validity - Many of these bonds have become collectibles over the past century, with original holder information obscured and many replicas in circulation, failing to meet basic legal evidence requirements [3]. - In the 1987 case "Jackson v. People's Republic of China," a U.S. federal court ruled that China is not liable for Qing Dynasty debts, establishing a legal precedent that remains valid [3]. Group 3: Political Motivations - The U.S. is currently facing high inflation, rising fiscal deficits, and a debt ceiling crisis, leading some politicians to use the "China owes debt" narrative to divert domestic attention and create a victim narrative [5]. - Politicians like Senator Blackburn and Congressman Vance are promoting "debt justice" proposals, which appear to be more about political maneuvering than factual accuracy [5]. Group 4: Implications for U.S. Creditworthiness - If the U.S. were to attempt to offset legitimate U.S. debt with these invalid old debts, it would undermine its own creditworthiness, potentially leading to a loss of global investor confidence and destabilizing the dollar's international standing [5]. - The Bank for International Settlements reports that over 60% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves are denominated in dollars, indicating that any breach of trust could have long-lasting repercussions [5]. Group 5: China's Position - China maintains a clear stance that it does not inherit Qing Dynasty debts, supported by international law and U.S. judicial precedents, and emphasizes that its holdings of U.S. debt are legitimate market transactions [7]. - The ongoing "old debt farce" reflects the political anxieties within the U.S. and highlights the shortsightedness of certain politicians, as true leadership involves adhering to contractual obligations and international rules [7].

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index remained flat last Friday, with Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments on interest rate cuts boosting U.S. Treasury bonds, while oil prices slightly declined and gold and industrial metals increased [1] - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party faced historic losses in the Senate elections, but Prime Minister Kishida stated he would continue to govern [1] - After visiting Japan, Bessenet expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan following a meeting with Prime Minister Kishida [1] Group 2 - U.S. consumer confidence reached a five-month high, with significant declines in inflation expectations [1] - China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, reported that the balance of China's economy is good, with domestic consumption's share of GDP continuously rising; more proactive fiscal policies and high-level opening-up will be implemented in the second half of the year [1] - Reports indicate that NVIDIA's H20 inventory is limited, and there are no plans for production resumption; CEO Jensen Huang sold NVIDIA shares worth approximately $12.94 million [1] Group 3 - Bank of America’s Hartnett noted that all sell signals for U.S. stocks have been triggered, but the real selling catalyst may not be in the stock market but in the bond market [1] - A reminder was issued that China's July LPR will be announced today [1]

Core Insights - The GENIUS Act is expected to create significant demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as stated by Trump's AI and cryptocurrency advisor, Sacks [1] Group 1 - The GENIUS Act aims to enhance the integration of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency within the financial system, potentially leading to increased investment in U.S. Treasury securities [1] - Sacks emphasizes that the legislation will not only foster innovation but also stabilize the financial markets by driving demand for government bonds [1]