说句实在话，现在这市场有点"魔幻"。 VIX指数低得快看不见了，黄金却疯涨到4500美元以上。 一边是"岁月静好"，一边是"末日警报"，到底谁在说真话？ 今天周叔就带大家拆解这场看似矛盾、实则暗流汹涌的金融大戏。 这些哪一点不危险？ 问题就出在这儿——VIX已经不再是"恐慌指数"，而是"控盘指数"。 大量机构通过做空波动率（比如卖出跨式期权）和高频交易超短期期权（甚至一天到期），人为压制市 场波动。 做市商在微幅震荡中"低买高卖"，形成一个自动稳定器，把任何风吹草动都熨平了。 VIX失灵？不是没风险，是风险被"压"住了 咱们先看数据：截至2026年1月初，VIX指数一度跌至13.6，创下近五年新低。 按常理，这说明美股风平浪静，投资者信心爆棚。 但现实呢？AI股估值高到离谱，美债规模突破38万亿美元，财政赤字像无底洞，美联储悄悄重启扩 表…… 黄金暴涨，是在替VIX"说实话" 那黄金为啥能一路冲上4533美元？因为它根本不信VIX那一套。 黄金看的是真实世界的"资产负债表"。 这不是市场没风险，而是风险被机械性地"藏"起来了。 周叔提醒一句：这种平静极其脆弱。 回看2024年12月，VIX同样处于历史低位，结 ...

第二个主题是特朗普试图稳定民心，向民众描绘经济回暖的前景。他在讲话中宣称"通胀已经停止"，并 承诺2026年美国经济将大幅好转，商品价格会下降，贷款利率会进一步降低，政府还将公布一项历史上 最具魄力的住房改革计划。同时，他还将经济复苏与大规模驱逐移民的政策挂钩，认为移民的撤离将为 美国人创造更多的就业和住房机会。然而，特朗普的这些言论很快引发了质疑。根据《纽约时报》记者 Katie Rogers的评论，这场讲话让事实核查员们忙得不可开交。根据12月19日美国劳工统计局的数据， 尽管通胀增长有所放缓，但美国的CPI同比增长依然达到2.7%，远没有达到"通胀停止"的标准。而特朗 普关于商品价格下跌和贷款利率降低的承诺，目前也没有任何政府文件作为佐证，更多的是一种前瞻性 的口头承诺。 哈喽，大家好！今天小墨要分析一下特朗普最近全国讲话风格的巨大变化，探讨其中的内容争议以及背 后的现实压力。 大家熟悉特朗普的人都知道，他的演讲风格向来自由奔放、充满激情。无论是竞选集 会，还是其他公开场合，他总是随性地脱稿发言，偶尔还会说出一些让人意外的话。不过，12月17日的 全国电视讲话却让人大吃一惊——这位政坛"网红"竟然做出了 ...

美国商务部23日公布的Q3经济数据首次预估数据显示，今年第Q3美国GDP环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度3.8%的增速，也是 两年来最高的增长率！ 而三季度经济增速加快的主要原因是由于消费支出增长提速，以及出口和政府支出增加。数据显示，当季占美国经济总量约70%的个人 消费支出增长3.5%，政府消费支出和投资增幅为2.2%，出口增长8.8%。反映企业投资状况的非住宅类固定资产投资当季仅增长2.8%，显 著低于前一季度的7.3%。 由于今年第一季度美国经济出现负增长，第四季度经济增长预计将因联邦政府"停摆"等因素明显放缓，多家研究机构预计，2025年美国 经济增速将为2%或更低水平，美国商务部通常会根据不断完善的信息对季度经济数据进行三次估算！ 而马斯克"未来18个月内美国将实现两位数GDP增长"的激进预言可能也和这个GDP增长相关，因为Q3实际上是AI经济开始分化的关键时 间！ 一、2025年Q3美国GDP 4.3%的增长原因 美国商务部数据显示，Q3 4.3%的增速并是消费、出口与政府支出协同发力，同时叠加进口收缩的结构性结果，具有一定阶段性特征。 首先，消费作为美国经济核心引擎持续景气！ 当前美联 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

2025年12月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存减少，价格获得支撑 | 4 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：ETF持续流入，震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：顺利突破前高，上行动能充足 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 黄金：通胀温和回落 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

AshleyLester最新发布的报告指出，尽管美国例外主义(U.S. exceptionalism)继续主导全球市场，但 DeepSeek冲击以及引发4月市场波动的政策事件，显示美国的领导地位可被迅速挑战。报告同时强调， AI的快速扩张突显了该行业对稳定电力供应、电网容量以及遍布全球的数据中心基建的高度依赖性。 AshleyLester提到，2025年初的政治及宏观经济冲击，包括本世纪首次出现的"美股、美债、美元三重冲 击"，突显了市场的不确定性。即便如此，随着人工智能(AI)加速发展，市场在年内后期出现反弹。 智通财经APP获悉，根据MSCI首席研究官Ashley Lester最新观点，尽管支撑全球市场的制度基础承受更 大的压力，2026年投资者仍将迎来持续增长与创新的投资环境。Lester表示："今年的各项发展表明， 2026年的市场主线将更集中于AI现有趋势的深化，而非全新的主题。制度框架的稳定性、AI 相关投资 能否保持增长步伐、能源和数据中心系统是否能跟上发展速度，以及私募信贷架构的韧性等因素将相互 影响，而其影响力往往需要在事后才显现。" ...

对 AI 的担忧仍未消退、美债抛售的深层警告 20251214 摘要 甲骨文资本开支增加引发市场担忧，投资者对其 AI 领域巨额投资回报产 生不确定性，尤其是在自由现金流占比过高的情况下，重资产投资回报 未显现，加剧市场疑虑。 AI 企业融资面临挑战，发债融资风险增加，甲骨文等公司债券信用违约 互换利差已达近年高位，表明市场对其通过发债进行大规模资本开支存 在担忧。 AI 领域公司互相绑定存在连锁风险，乐观情绪下加速增长，悲观情绪下 可能引发连锁下跌，与甲骨文绑定的部分公司股价自 10 月以来表现不 佳。 华尔街策略师 Edward Yardeni 建议低配"科技七姐妹"，认为 AI 竞 赛威胁其垄断地位；橡树资本霍华德·马克斯担忧 AI 可能导致大量失业， 加剧社会分裂。 2026 年美国经济面临 AI 预期修正和传统行业需求下行两大风险，AI 资 本开支增速或将回落，对 GDP 的贡献可能减弱，传统行业面临较大压力。 长端美债收益率持续回升，源于对美国通胀的担忧和对特朗普提名新任 美联储主席的担忧，市场担心美联储独立性受损及通胀无法下行。 特朗普提名凯文·塞特为美联储主席引发市场不安，可能破坏美联储独立 ...

12月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10 月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 同期人民银行官网公布的数据显示，11月末黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析称，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等带 动，11月美元指数小幅下跌0.29%。这会带动我国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规 模。 汇率方面，温彬分析称，11月，美元指数环比下跌0.3%。非美货币涨跌不一，日元汇率下跌1.38%，欧 元、英镑兑美元分别上涨0.56%、0.63%。资产价格方面，美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上涨0.2%。 对AI（人工智能）盈利前景的担忧导致美股剧烈分化，11月末标普500指数环比小幅上涨0.1%。 外贸领域，温彬指出，11月美国将对华关税下调10%，有助于我国对美出口规模保持稳定。投资领域， 我国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，近日中国证监会印发《合格境外投资者制度优化工作方案》，对配置 型外资准入实行绿色通道，有利于提升对境外投资者的吸引力。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜 能大，是外汇 ...

美债近日又突破一个里程碑，30.20万亿美元。要知道2018时这个数字还是15万亿美元，7年时间翻了一 倍。其中包含了由全球投资者持有的各种美国国债，若加上政府内部债务，联邦总负债已达38.40万亿 美元， 逼近41.10万亿美元的法定债务上限。 算下来，年支付利息高达1.2万亿美元，相当于新西兰一年的GDP。 三是，外资"口嫌体正直"，外资嘴上看空，但行动上确不断增持美债，比起日债和欧洲，美债显然更具 有吸引力。 2026年，怎么看？ 目前民调显示，选民最不满的是 "支付困境"——物价与收入之间的鸿沟。为挽救支持率，白宫的政策 工具箱已经打开。若民意回升，美联储可能温和降息(如75个基点)，财政以落实减税为主。 债务持续飙升的根源在于长期的收支失衡。美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口持续存在，这是过去二十年 债务不断加剧的原因。而在新冠疫情后情况更趋恶化，因为大量债务是在更高的利率水平下借入的。 IMF警告，美国债务占GDP的比重已达125%，远超对发达经济体建议的100%门槛。IMF预测，到2030 年，将飙升至143.4%，甚至超过意大利和希腊。 但戏剧性的是，美债规模创纪录的同时，回报却也相当丰厚。 这里原 ...

Group 1 - The creation of money is a complex economic issue, with U.S. Treasury bonds playing a crucial role in the global monetary system [1][2] - The U.S. government raises funds through the issuance of national debt, which reflects as liabilities on the balance sheet, and this process is not merely about printing money but involves debt financing [1] - The debt ceiling set by the U.S. Congress determines the scale of Treasury bond issuance, indicating that the U.S. is effectively borrowing from the global market [1] Group 2 - The repayment of government debt is necessary, typically managed by borrowing new debt to pay off old debt, highlighting the importance of credit in modern currency systems [1] - The value of modern currency is fundamentally based on national credit, which is derived from comprehensive national strength, including productivity, technology, military, and economic factors [1][2] - Understanding the mechanisms of money creation and the role of debt is essential for grasping economic operations and responding to economic changes and challenges [2]