Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Urea is currently in a weak consolidation phase with no immediate market drivers The previous export positive factors have been digested Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent Indian tender price exceeds market expectations In the short - term, consider short - selling on rebounds Later, autumn fertilizer preparation and off - season storage will support the market, and there is also potential for Northeast fertilizer preparation to start, so the downside space is relatively limited [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures and spot markets of urea are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] - Fundamentally, there is no significant fluctuation The daily production is maintained at around 190,000 tons This week, Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Lu'an have maintenance plans, and the weekly output is expected to decrease compared to last week [1] - On the demand side, industrial demand has some resilience The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a high level in the same period of history, with limited room for further increase Recently, affected by environmental protection restrictions for the military parade, compound fertilizer factories have limited production, and the operating load has slightly decreased [1] - The finished product inventory has been at a high level in the past five years for the past two months It is not yet the high - demand period for autumn fertilizers, so there is no pressure for centralized fertilizer preparation Other industrial demands are also affected by environmental protection restrictions and have reduced or stopped production [1] - Urea inventory is accumulating and is currently at a high level in the past five years A large amount of inventory restricts the upward space of the market, and there is a large amount of marketable supply [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1741 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 0.52% The trading volume was 219,820 lots, a decrease of 3120 lots [2] - In the top twenty positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 871 lots, and short positions decreased by 3230 lots Among them, Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 1232 lots, Galaxy Futures' net long positions increased by 786 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 2257 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions decreased by 1516 lots [2] - On August 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5123, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - Spot: The futures and spot markets are both weak After upstream factories cut prices to attract orders, the market trading atmosphere did not improve significantly The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1640 to 1690 yuan/ton [1][7] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable today, while the futures closing price has decreased Based on the Henan region, the basis has strengthened compared to the previous trading day The basis of the January contract is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [10] - Supply data: On August 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,700 tons, unchanged from yesterday The operating rate was 82.55% [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go for reverse hedging on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers are reducing prices to attract orders, but downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and there has been an improvement in trading. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period. Although some companies are expected to undergo maintenance next week and production may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea production is okay, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1745 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (-40), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (-30). The basis in Shandong was - 45 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 35 yuan/ton (-46), and in Jiangsu was - 35 yuan/ton (-36) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Next week, Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to undergo maintenance, and production may decline slightly. However, with the release of new production capacity, future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (-40). The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of August 25, 2025, the export profit was 1270 yuan/ton (+1). August is the export window period, urea export is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and there is still resistance to high - priced goods [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+3.70). The upstream inventory is still relatively high compared to the same period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export demand, has fallen as actual exports have not improved significantly. The report expects the UR contract to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high domestic supply, weak demand, strong international prices, and un - liberalized export policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has oscillated downward recently. Rumors of improved Sino - Indian relations and increased export demand led to a price increase, but actual exports have not improved. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market far exceeds demand, and although export profits have declined, they remain strong while export policies have not been liberalized as expected. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis for the UR2601 contract is 65, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is a bearish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, also a bearish indicator [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to oscillate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been liberalized as expected. With a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices, while bearish factors are high production and weak domestic demand. The main logic is based on international prices and changes in domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot prices of the deliverable product and Shandong urea are 1810, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1810, up 25; the FOB China price is 3117 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the UR01 contract is 1745, up 6; the UR05 contract is 1789, up 7; the UR09 contract is 1714, down 1. The basis of the UR01 contract is 65, up 4 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons (- 72,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons (+ 25,000 tons). The number of warehouse receipts is 5123, an increase of 1050 [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Relevant Data | | --- | --- | | **2018 - 2024** | From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. Production and apparent consumption have also generally increased over the years, and the import dependence has varied between 8.4% - 19.3%. The ending inventory and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes [10]. | | **2025E** | The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0%, but other data is not provided [10]. |

Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market is experiencing a slight decline, influenced by market sentiment and export factors [1][2][3] - Domestic demand for urea is weak due to the agricultural off-season and reduced production of compound fertilizers [1][2][3] - Export activities are ongoing, contributing to increased port inventories and affecting the overall supply-demand balance [2][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Urea futures main contract showed a minor decline of 0.17%, closing at 1745.00 yuan, with a low of 1735.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment and export news have significantly impacted the urea price trend, leading to a continuous drop in the market [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The agricultural demand for urea is currently in a low season, and the production of compound fertilizers is not providing substantial support to urea prices [1][2] - Port inventories have increased slightly, with upstream urea enterprises continuing to accumulate stock [3] - The overall domestic demand for urea lacks support, with the main variable being export activities [2][3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The price of urea is expected to maintain a range-bound movement until substantial positive factors emerge [2] - The lower price space for urea is considered limited due to rising coal prices and low production profits [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest a weak oscillation in the urea market, with support levels identified between 1700-1730 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]

一德期货：短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 中金财富期货 内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 一德期货 短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 创元期货 尿素操作区间1650-1850 中金财富期货：内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 目前来看，持续攀升的印标价格反映出海外尿素货源紧缺，理论测算出口利润丰厚，然而这一利好在短 期内难以兑现。参考历史经验，2023年三季度尿素供需紧张引发结构性行情，到年末国内尿素价格暴涨 至高位，致使承储企业亏损严重，全面放开印标有违稳供保价的宗旨。接下来，关注9月中国尿素企业 可能向印度供货的情况，短期消息面对市场情绪扰动较大。我们认为，内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空 间，但价格过高易触发管制措施，法检政策调整以官宣为准。 8月22日盘中，尿素期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1737.00元。截止发稿，尿素主力合约 报1742.00元，跌幅1.75%。 尿素期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 尿素主流现货1660-1740区间，收单一般；供应端，检修逐渐复产，日产19.27万吨，-0.25；需求端，复 合肥开工转下降 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated and declined, closing at 1776. The decline in the futures market was mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains high, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons. Although the current export policy is unclear, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply under the condition of sufficient domestic supply and low prices. It is necessary to prevent the excessive short - term increase in urea prices, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the decline. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.26% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1810 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 1.58%; UR09 closed at 1751 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.79%. [1] - Spot prices: In Henan, the domestic spot price was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%; in Hebei (small - particle), it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.72%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 40 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 2550 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton. [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1793 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1804 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1774 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1776 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1788 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 208,609 lots. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In the short term, the export - end information supports the urea valuation, but due to the slow export flow, the feedback on the spot end is relatively limited. Urea presents a pattern of oscillation with support. The daily focus is on the overall spot trading situation [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,788 yuan/ton, down 1; the trading volume was 457,226 lots, up from 401,998 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 208,609 lots, down 4,424; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 16350.35 million yuan, up 1966.39 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 6, up 81; the Fengxi - to - futures price difference was - 166, up 41; the Dongguang - to - futures price difference was - 16, up 81; the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 25, up 9 [1] Spot Market - Among urea factory prices, the price of Henan Xinlianxin and Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1,770 yuan/ton and 1,460 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices of Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 40 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 82.59%, down 0.65%, and the daily output was 191,200 tons, down 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, the overall enterprise inventory was on an upward trend, with inventory increasing in some provinces and decreasing in others [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]