Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons [1]. - The top - dressing demand in July will support the urea price, so there may be opportunities for low - buying in July. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot make up for it, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 8, compared with July 7, UR01 rose from 1712 yuan/ton to 1723 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR05 rose from 1716 yuan/ton to 1727 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR09 rose from 1748 yuan/ton to 1763 yuan/ton (up 0.86%), and the price in Shanxi rose from 1670 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5023 yuan/ton (down 0.53%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 104 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1745 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1769 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1763 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 214,386 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong sideways movement, closing at 1763. There may be low - buying opportunities in July, but attention should be paid to the impact of the change in domestic agricultural demand and export demand on prices [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差102，升贴水比例5.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The international spot prices of urea have different trends in various regions, with some falling and some rising. The domestic urea market is influenced by both demand and sentiment, with inventory showing a complex pattern of change. The futures market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, export information, and agricultural demand trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices over the years [5][9][15] Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with some projects already put into production [24] - **Production Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans in 2025, including Jiangsu Huachang, Shanxi Tianze, etc., with reasons mainly being routine or policy - related maintenance [28] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate also shows certain trends over the years [30][31] - **Cost**: The raw material prices are weak, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has shifted downwards [32] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33] - **Net Imports (Exports)**: Due to the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase [40] Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn [44][47] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizer show trends in production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [51][52][53] - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine have their own trends [55][56] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand from real estate for wood - based panels has limited support, while the export of wood products has resilience [58][59] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41100 tons from the previous week, a 3.49% decrease. Some provincial enterprises' inventories increased, and some decreased [63] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025 (week 25), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 295000 tons, a 50000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.41% increase [63] International Urea - Multiple graphs show the trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil over the years [67][68][69][70]

| | | 尿素早评20250704: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 变化值 单位 7月3日 7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1699.00 | 1698.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% 0.56% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1710.00 | 3.00 | 0.18% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1739.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 10.00 0.00 | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1780.00 | 20.00 | 1.12% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250703: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 7月2日 | 7月1日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) 0.95% | | | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1698.00 1710.00 | 1682.00 1694.00 | 16.00 16.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.94% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1721.00 | 18.00 | 1.05% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1630.00 | 0.00 30.00 | 0.00% 1.84% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1780.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小額粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-03 农需旺季启动，尿素小幅反弹 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-02，尿素主力收盘1739元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：51 元/吨（-18）；河南基差：41元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：61元/吨（-18）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+0），出口利润901 元/吨（+10）。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-02，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-02，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 农需旺季即将来临，北方农需旺季启动，下游采购量 ...

Market Overview and Quotes Review - On June 30, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1,712 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,727 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, and the open interest was 224,000 lots [2]. - The latest price of the urea 2508 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest of 850 lots, an increase of 29 lots, and a trading volume of 224 lots. The latest price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,712 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.64%, with an open interest of 223,700 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots, and a trading volume of 218,328 lots [5]. - The overall price of urea in major regions remained stable. The representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,830 yuan/ton, Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,700 yuan/ton, Ruixing Group in East China at 1,770 yuan/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,780 yuan/ton [5]. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Overseas: India's RCF issued a urea import tender plan with a procurement target of 2 million tons, with 1 million tons allocated to each of the east and west coasts. The tender will open on July 7, be valid until July 17, and the final shipping deadline is set for August 22 [8]. - Policy: To promote the export self - discipline of circulation enterprises, the industry association coordinated to add a port legal inspection link, which is implemented by three state - owned enterprises: China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sinochem Fertilizer, and China National Chemical Construction. It supplements the origin legal inspection system [10]. - Demand: The end of the Israel - Palestine conflict led to the消退 of its market impact, and the international urea price significantly回调. However, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and India's new tender, it supported the domestic market sentiment. Domestically, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots market was resistant to high - priced goods. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises declined from the high level, and their raw material procurement willingness was weak [10]. - Supply: The operating rate and daily output of the urea industry reached peak values in recent years, and the inventory showed small fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine in industrial demand continued to decline, and the agricultural demand expectation weakened again. The oversupply pattern in the urea market was still significant [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - India's large - scale tender will boost the market sentiment in the short term, and domestic policies guide self - disciplined exports. With the decline of international urea prices, weak domestic industrial and agricultural demand, and continuous high supply, the oversupply pattern in the urea market is significant. The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent, and export profit is the key variable. It is expected that the domestic urea price will face upward pressure in the short term and may continue to operate weakly [8].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250701: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | | 单位 | 6月30日 | 6月27日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) -0.12% | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 | 1682.00 | 1684.00 | -2.00 | | | | | | 元/吨 | 1696.00 | 1696.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1712.00 | 1717.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1810.00 1660.00 | -10.00 0.00 | -0.55% 0.00% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1800.00 | -20.00 | -1.11% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 18 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-01 需求支撑不足，尿素偏弱震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-30，尿素主力收盘1712元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：88 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：68元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：98元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（-10），出口利润885元 /吨（+225）。 供应端：截至2025-06-30，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-06-30，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 尿素装置临时停车增加，上游开工率走低，产量有所下降。下游需求不及预期，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率 仍在持续走低，预计7月中旬开始提升，三聚氰胺开工低位运行，其他工业需求亦偏弱。农 ...