热点报告——外汇期货 美联储偏向鹰派，美元短期走强 总体来看，6 月份利率会议偏向鹰派，虽然美国经济滞胀压力上 升，但是由于对于通胀压力高度关注，因此美联储选择继续观 望，并且远期利率指引偏向继续压制通胀预期。因此短期预计 美元指数回升。 ★投资建议 短期美元指回升。 ★风险提示： [★TaFbOleM_SCu6m月m利ary率] 会议：维持利率水平不变 美联 6 月利率会议美联储符合市场预期维持利率水平不变。但 是对于远期预期降息次数减少，受此影响市场风险偏好走弱， 美元指数短期回升。 从对于经济的描述来看，经济活动继续扩张，失业率维持在低 位，劳动力市场稳健。这些表述和上次利率会议一致。细节在 于美联储把失业率稳定在低位，改成失业率维持在低位，这表 明了劳动力市场有走弱的倾向。 外 汇 期 货 美联储在会议声明维持利率水平不变，本次会议声明表示"经 济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降， 但仍处于较高水平"，同时删去了"认为高失业和高通胀的风 险都有所上升"的表述。这个改变意味着美联储对于远期经济 的看法偏向于不确定性减少，滞胀压力进一步扩大的压力减轻， 因此美联储对于短期经济走势的看法边 ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 19, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.01% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 18.681 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 17.6 million shares, also a new high in three months [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 3.125 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the Company Bond ETF, with a maximum single-day net purchase of 8.4424 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) rose by 0.03%, achieving five consecutive increases, with the latest price at 117.64 yuan [3] - The National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.80% over the past three months [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.433 billion yuan [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is in a state of indecision, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.00% [5] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF is 1.052 billion yuan [5] Group 4: FOMC Economic Forecast - The FOMC has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [6] - The PCE inflation forecast has been increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, and the core PCE from 2.8% to 3.1% [6] - Despite the changes in economic forecasts, the FOMC's median policy rate expectations for Q4 2025 remain unchanged [6] Group 5: FOMC Press Conference Insights - Powell expressed confidence in the economy and patience regarding inflation, stating that maintaining the current policy is the best strategy [7] - The market slightly adjusted its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 following the press conference, with a more hawkish signal leading to an increase in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [7] - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership may influence future rate cut expectations [7] Group 6: Bond ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the Bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020) [8] - These products encompass government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds, covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, anticipating a slowdown in economic growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. Economic Forecast - The Federal Reserve projects that by the end of 2025, economic growth will significantly slow down, inflation will rise, and the unemployment rate will slightly increase [5]. - The core inflation rate is expected to reach 3.1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%, and will decline to 2.4% by 2026 and further to 2.1% by 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2025, higher than the previous estimate of 4.4%, and is expected to remain at 4.5% until 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.4% in 2027 [6]. - The GDP growth forecast has been downgraded, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.4% for this year, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027 [6][7]. Interest Rate Predictions - The latest "dot plot" indicates that the number of officials who do not expect any rate cuts this year has increased from 4 to 7, reflecting a more cautious stance [8]. - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 8 support two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe there should be no cuts, 2 support one cut, and 2 advocate for three cuts [8]. Economic Uncertainty - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned against over-reliance on interest rate predictions, emphasizing that forecasts may change based on incoming data, particularly inflation data [10]. - Powell highlighted the high level of uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and stated that the Federal Reserve is willing to "wait and see" for more information before making any policy adjustments [10].

美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔新闻发布会要点总结：维持利率不变 点阵图显示预计年内将降息两次 ①美联储将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，自1月以来第四次决定维持利率不变。 ②美联储点阵图显示，2025年预计将降息两次，预计2026年和2027年各降息25个基点。 ③鲍威尔表示，当前的政策立场做好灵活应对准备。 ④鲍威尔表示，美联储认为维持当前利率水平是适当的。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，终有一天美联储可能会达到一个适合降息的位置。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，关税预期的上升使美联储对持续降息持更为谨慎的态度。 ⑦鲍威尔表示，当前的货币政策已略微收紧，仍适度具有限制性。 ⑧鲍威尔表示，美联储货币政策必须具有前瞻性。 ⑨鲍威尔表示，加息并非基本预期。 二、通胀方面 ①FOMC经济预期显示，2025、2026、2027年底核心PCE通胀预期中值分别为3.1%、2.4%、2.1%。 ②鲍威尔表示，通胀水平一直略高于2%。 ③鲍威尔表示，预计5月份总体PCE上涨2.3%，核心指数上涨2.6%。 ④鲍威尔表示，通胀数据温和部分源于房地产市场降温。 ⑤鲍威尔表示，美联储预期未来几个月内通胀将会显著上升。 ⑥鲍威尔表示，与2024年9月降息 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国经济抵御了各种预期的疲软，表现强劲。 ...

Group 1 - President Trump has publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, suggesting that a reduction could allow for cheaper debt purchases and that rates should be two percentage points lower than current levels [2] - The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% during the June meeting, despite Trump's calls for a reduction [2] - The Federal Reserve's rationale for keeping rates steady is the potential for a rebound in inflation, although recent economic data indicates that inflation rates in the U.S. are steadily declining without significant rebounds [2] Group 2 - Maintaining high interest rates for an extended period is viewed as a mistake, with concerns that it could negatively impact the U.S. economy and accelerate its downturn [3] - Lowering interest rates is seen as a necessary step to reduce the financing costs of U.S. national debt, especially in light of ongoing fiscal deficits that may increase the national debt scale [2]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 18 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13545 | 15 | 23,412 | -3475 | 151,537 | 3618 | | CF05合约 | 13540 | 5 | 1,897 | 1318 | 4,409 | 779 | | CF09合约 | 13540 | 15 | 124,617 | -21025 | 533,428 | -118 | | CY01合约 | 19810 | 19810 | 2 | 2 | 37 | -1 | | CY05合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19840 | 65 | 7430 | 1 ...

年 6 月 18 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 零售和工业走弱，联储将保持观望 美国 5 月零售超预期下跌，汽车、建筑材料、电子、家电等耐用品零售和餐饮 服务消费明显放缓，运动休闲商品、服装、日用品和网购等有所回升。工业产 出延续放缓，公用事业增速高位回落，制造业小幅反弹。由于中东冲突推升油 价和关税影响部分商品价格，第三季度美国通胀可能反弹，但经济可能延续放 缓，美联储面临去通胀和保就业的两难，预计 6 月和 7 月将保持利率不变。第 三季度后，美国通胀可能见顶回落，就业市场走弱，美联储可能在 9 月降息一 次，11 月或 12 月再降息一次。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 同比(%, 2021/2022年为2/3年平均，3M MA ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价先下后上；美国三大股指全线收 跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美元指数涨0.69%报98.8，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.1923；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌6.92个基点报4.377%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.32%报3406.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注2025陆家嘴论坛、美联储利率决议，美国5月新屋开工和营建许 可、英国5月CPI、欧央行官员密集讲话。特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价再度 先下后上但依旧收跌。沪金溢价收敛至0元/ ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国经济的前瞻指标们 核心结论：近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛，越来越多的硬 数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件 五个维度的前瞻指标拆分，总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景：经济呈下行趋 势，但爆发风险的概率不大，结构来看：①就业市场呈结构性弱化，供需关系 显著降温；②当前处于补库存周期，未来大规模补库概率不大；③投资方面企 业投资或继续下行，地产投资难有起色；④居民消费能力减弱，但爆发风险的 概率小；⑤金融条件：处于宽松状态。 1、美国就业市场：呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状：薪资偏强，但就业呈现结构性弱化。根据亚特兰大联储对就业 数据的拆分，将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看，尽管薪资 增长依然较快（衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75%分位数水平）， 但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化，例如就业市场信心指标、 雇主行为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50%分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来评估当前的就业市场现状，可以看到劳动力市场供需 关系显著降温，工作变得不那么 ...