Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) has decided to source batteries from China's CATL despite high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, indicating a strategic move to maintain competitiveness in the electric vehicle market while establishing domestic production capabilities in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Battery Sourcing and Production - GM will procure batteries from CATL for its second-generation Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle, which is set to launch later this year [1]. - The battery procurement is described as a "transitional" arrangement, with GM's ultimate goal being the production of low-cost batteries using lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology [1][3]. - The manufacturing cost of LFP batteries is approximately 35% lower than that of nickel-cobalt-based batteries, which may allow the new Bolt to achieve near profitability [3]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The comprehensive tariff on Chinese electric vehicle batteries, including a 25% tariff on foreign auto parts, reaches 80% [1]. - The tariffs are projected to result in a total profit loss of $7 billion for the U.S. automotive industry by 2025, with GM expected to incur a loss of $3.5 billion [5]. - The tariffs on essential materials like steel and aluminum have reached 50%, significantly increasing the costs for U.S. automakers [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - GM's decision reflects a broader trend where U.S. automakers are lagging behind Chinese companies in low-cost battery manufacturing [4]. - Competitors like Ford are also collaborating with CATL to produce low-cost electric vehicle batteries in the U.S. [4]. - The reliance on foreign suppliers for battery technology and materials is a common strategy among U.S. automakers to remain competitive in the electric vehicle market [1][3].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signals resistance to calls for interest rate cuts in July, stating that the U.S. economy remains "solid" despite uncertainties from Trump's trade war and other policy changes [1][4] - Following Powell's testimony, U.S. short-term interest rate futures slightly declined, indicating reduced expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell acknowledges that while the impact of tariffs may be milder than previously predicted, he emphasizes that tariff increases could raise prices and dampen economic activity [4][5] Group 2 - Fed officials Waller and Bowman express support for a rate cut in July, citing recent inflation data showing that the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices is less than expected [3] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman will end in May 2026, and he faces criticism from President Trump for maintaining current interest rates, with Trump calling for a reduction of up to 3 percentage points [4] - The current target range for the Fed's benchmark interest rate is 4.25%-4.5%, which is considered restrictive and above the neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates growth [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain caution in its interest rate actions, emphasizing the need for stability in the current economic environment [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Actions - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that interest rates can be kept at current levels to ensure price stability [1] - The ECB has already cut rates seven times, with economists and markets anticipating a further 25 basis point cut in June [1] - While several policymakers support this potential cut, Schnabel refrained from confirming any specific actions, stating that future developments remain uncertain [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The uncertainty stemming from the Trump trade war casts a shadow over the economic outlook [1] - Schnabel highlighted the significant differences in the short-term and medium-term impacts on inflation, noting that falling energy prices and global economic slowdown should suppress inflation in the short term [1] - However, she warned that the situation could reverse in the medium term [1] Group 3: Currency Confidence - The recent appreciation of the euro should be interpreted as a signal of confidence in the currency [1] - Schnabel urged Europe to seize the opportunity presented by this confidence in the euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's largest bull maintains the expectation that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7000 points by the end of the year, despite many strategists lowering their forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Christopher Harvey from Wells Fargo Securities predicts the S&P 500 index will reach 7007 points by year-end, consistent with his earlier forecast from early 2025 [1] - The index has risen over 10% in the first nine trading days, marking the longest upward streak in over twenty years [1] - Harvey's estimate assumes a further 24% increase in the benchmark index over the next eight months [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - The potential impacts of the Trump trade war, tax cut promises, and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts loom over the market outlook [1] - Harvey notes a shift in the White House's tone, suggesting that a change from a confrontational to a more conciliatory approach could significantly alter market dynamics [1] - He believes that the peak of uncertainty has been surpassed [1]

Group 1 - eBay reported a 1.1% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, reaching $2.59 billion, exceeding the expected $2.55 billion [1] - Earnings per share were $1.38, higher than the anticipated $1.34 [1] - The company provided a positive Q2 guidance, expecting revenue between $2.59 billion and $2.66 billion, above market expectations [1] - CEO Jamie Iannone noted that shoppers eager to avoid tariffs accelerated their spending, contributing to a strong start for the online marketplace [1] - 48% of eBay's revenue in Q1 came from international markets, reducing reliance on U.S. consumers purchasing Chinese goods [1] - eBay is focusing on increasing sales of second-hand and refurbished items, which are less affected by tariffs, with these items accounting for 40% of sales [1] Group 2 - eBay's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew by 1% in Q1, reaching $18.8 billion, surpassing the average expectation of $18.5 billion [2] - U.S. GMV was $9.07 billion, also up 1% year-over-year, while international GMV was $9.69 billion, growing by 0.4% [2] - The number of active buyers increased by 1.5% year-over-year, totaling 134 million, in line with expectations [2] - eBay announced a cash dividend of $0.29 per share for Q2, payable on June 13, 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company merged its product and market teams and integrated its engineering team into a single organization [3] - Jordan Sweetnam will lead the newly merged global market and product department as Chief Business Officer [3] - Mazen Rawashdeh will serve as Chief Technology Officer, leading the unified engineering organization, while CTO Eddie Garcia will resign [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **U.S. Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectation**: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].