资产配置月报 202505 五月配置视点：黄金见顶了吗？ 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ 黄金见顶了吗？ 美国经济在关税政策影响下一季度增速转负，结构上韧性减弱，市场对于美国经 济衰退的预期上升；美国就业市场温和降温，对黄金有正面影响但较弱；美国财 政方面近期虽然增速有所放缓，但是主要由国防支出减少导致，非国防消费支出 和投资依旧维持增长，财政长期扩张趋势未完全扭转，依旧支撑黄金表现；技术 层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积 累或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休 整，但是长期上涨逻辑不变（或由单一财政逻辑转向叠加经济衰退的逻辑）。 ➢ 大类资产量化观点 1. 权益：Q1 财报景气度回升，五月积极应对。景气度 4 月整体走平，金融中 银行、非银景气度都进一步下降，工业景气度有所回升；上市公司 2024 年年报 以及 2025 年一季报反映了积极变化。信用或继续稳步扩张，政府债券仍占主导； 从结构来看，高增主要来源于去年同期的低基数，政府债券继续支撑社融增长。 4 月市场如我们预期先下后上，目前市场遇强支撑，5 月静待成交放量。 2. 利 ...

资产配置月报 202505 五月配置视点：黄金见顶了吗？ 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ 黄金见顶了吗？ 美国经济在关税政策影响下一季度增速转负，结构上韧性减弱，市场对于美国经 济衰退的预期上升；美国就业市场温和降温，对黄金有正面影响但较弱；美国财 政方面近期虽然增速有所放缓，但是主要由国防支出减少导致，非国防消费支出 和投资依旧维持增长，财政长期扩张趋势未完全扭转，依旧支撑黄金表现；技术 层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积 累或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休 整，但是长期上涨逻辑不变（或由单一财政逻辑转向叠加经济衰退的逻辑）。 5. 海外：印度外资流出暂缓，市场阶段性反弹。外资小幅流入下，NIFTY 50 指 数 4 月上涨 3.46%。印度当前处于盈利增速不及预期带来的外资流出、估值下修 阶段，配置价值或相对有限。 ➢ 二元风格量化观点 1. 大势研判综合观点：成长性加剧分化，提升稀缺性价值。实际增速资产优势 差开始回升，预期增速资产优势差继续回升，ROE 优势差边际继续下行但拥挤度 较低，高股息类资产拥挤度继续升高。当下Δg ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a significant differentiation among small-cap stocks, with high-quality micro-cap stocks seeing substantial gains while poor-performing ones face declines of 20%-50% [2] - This differentiation indicates a notable change in risk appetite among investors, who are now more inclined to actively seek out potential stocks within the small-cap sector rather than opting for cash to avoid risks [2] - The easing of market anxiety as annual reports conclude is viewed as a positive signal for the overall market, suggesting a higher probability of an upward trend in the future [2] Group 2 - Individual stocks are beginning to show signs of potential breakout, despite the general market focus on index performance [4] - Retail investors often react slowly to market changes, primarily relying on stock price movements for decision-making, which can lead to missed opportunities [4] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the true behavior of institutional funds rather than just observing stock price trends, as this can reveal underlying market dynamics [6][8] Group 3 - The presence of institutional funds in over 80% of stocks does not guarantee profitability for retail investors, highlighting the need to track institutional trading patterns [6] - Data analysis can uncover the true actions of institutional investors, which are often obscured by market sentiment and news [8][10] - The concept of "shakeout" by institutions, where they intentionally drive down stock prices to eliminate retail investors before a price increase, is a critical strategy to understand [10][12] Group 4 - Observations indicate that when institutional inventory data becomes active, stock prices are likely to rise, while a lack of such data often precedes price declines [14] - Relying on data analysis rather than traditional price charts can provide a more reliable understanding of market trends and help avoid potential pitfalls [14]

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 530.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong effort to stabilize the market [1] - The market is expected to experience a potential rebound around mid-year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience despite slight fluctuations [3] - Concerns exist regarding the current market dynamics, as the index is facing pressure from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for individual stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and technology sectors [5] Group 2 - The brokerage sector has shown a rebound, positively influencing market sentiment, with small-cap stocks gaining attention as funds shift from large to small caps [7] - The trading volume has increased despite expectations of low activity, indicating that investors are positioning for potential market gains following the holiday [7]

Market Performance Summary - In April, the S&P 500 index declined approximately 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 3.6% [1] - The Nasdaq remained relatively flat, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by around 1.1% [1] - The banking index dropped by approximately 3.9%, and the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, fell about 2.9% [1] - The technology sector, represented by the seven major tech stocks, saw a decline of 5.9%, and the Trump tariff losers index decreased by 5.8% [1] Daily Performance Highlights - On Friday, the S&P 500 index initially rose by 0.2%, while the Dow Jones gained over 200 points, reflecting a 0.6% increase [1] - The semiconductor index increased by 0.8% on the same day [1] - Tesla's stock fell by 3%, whereas Apple's stock rose by 1% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the CSI Small Cap 500 Index ETF increased significantly today, indicating heightened market activity and investor interest in small-cap stocks [1]. Trading Volume and Performance - The total trading volume of the CSI Small Cap 500 Index ETF reached 1.615 billion yuan, an increase of 441 million yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 37.61% [1]. - The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) had a trading volume of 1.167 billion yuan, up 469 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 67.16% [1]. - The GF CSI 500 ETF (510510) saw a trading volume of 36.3045 million yuan, increasing by 17.2347 million yuan, with a growth rate of 90.38% [1]. - The E Fund CSI 500 ETF (510580) recorded a trading volume of 33.6861 million yuan, up 15.0821 million yuan, with a growth rate of 81.07% [1]. Market Performance - The CSI Small Cap 500 Index (000905) rose by 0.48% by the end of the trading day, while the average increase for related ETFs was 0.50% [1]. - The top performers included the Bank of China Securities CSI 500 ETF (515190) and the CSI 500 ETF Fund (159337), which increased by 1.22% and 0.81%, respectively [1]. Notable Increases in Trading Volume - The Bank of China Securities CSI 500 ETF (515190) and the China Life Asset Management CSI 500 ETF (510560) experienced remarkable increases in trading volume, with growth rates of 2429.81% and 402.61%, respectively [1]. Additional Trading Data - A detailed table lists various ETFs, their trading volumes, daily changes, and percentage increases, highlighting significant movements in the market [1][2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the 中证500ETF has experienced significant growth in trading volume, scale, and shares, reflecting increased investor interest and liquidity in the market [3] - In terms of liquidity, the 中证500ETF recorded a trading volume of 57.4372 million yuan, with a scale increase of 56.2151 million yuan over the past two weeks [3] - The number of shares for 中证500ETF has grown by 129 million shares this month, indicating a strong upward trend [3] Group 2 - The data shows that there has been a net inflow of funds into 中证500ETF, with 6 out of the last 10 trading days seeing a total net inflow of 81.1992 million yuan [3] - Leverage funds are actively positioning in 中证500ETF, with a net financing purchase of 3.7492 million yuan on the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 71.5498 million yuan [3] - The political bureau meeting in April emphasized a bottom-line thinking approach, suggesting that the market may enter a phase of adjustment and consolidation due to cautious investor behavior and the need for funds to re-anchor value [3] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the 中证小盘500指数 as of March 31, 2025, include 江淮汽车, 光启技术, and others, collectively accounting for 6.19% of the index [3] - Investors can also access A-share small and medium-sized investment opportunities through the 中证500ETF联接基金 (070039) [4]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on April 29, with active sectors including construction decoration, beauty care, and banking, while TMT sectors like computers and electronics continued to adjust [1] - The AI ETF Huaxia (159381) on the ChiNext fell by 0.24%, but its constituent stock Bochuang Technology surged over 17%, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [1] - The global first commercial intelligent computing supernode was recently launched in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, suggesting a potential continuation of the partial recovery trend in the computing industry chain [1] Group 2 - After previous adjustments, the artificial intelligence sector has seen a significant decrease in crowding, with funds actively entering the market, as evidenced by the Huaxia AI ETF attracting a total of 11.4634 million yuan over the last five trading days [2] - The Huaxia AI ETF tracks the ChiNext AI index, with a daily fluctuation range of ±20%, and the median total market capitalization of its constituent stocks is only 15.4 billion yuan, indicating a focus on small and mid-cap stocks [2] - The ETF covers leading companies across various sub-sectors, including IDC computing leasing, optical modules, cloud computing, and domestic software [2]

关键因素 图利 绝对差值和边际变化 重要指标 II 价值成长轮动策略 II 深圳证券交易所 ( SHENZHEN STOCK EXCHANGE 深交所ETF投资问答(42) 如何的身上了 II t FE ALKE 0 n - 编者按 - 近年来我国指数型基金迅速发展,交易型开 放式指数基金(ETF) 备受关注。为帮助广 大投资者系统全面认识ETF,了解相关投资 方法,特摘编由深圳证券交易所基金管理部 编著的《深交所ETF投资问答》（中国财政 经济出版社2024年版）形成图文解读。本 篇是第42期,一起来看看如何通过ETF构建 风格配置策略。 风格轮动是依据ETF特征进行交易的 行为，常见的风格轮动有大小盘轮动、 成长价值轮动等。风格轮动的分析框 架需要对比指数间的相对强弱，因此 预测难度更大。 II 影响风格轮动强弱的因素 II 价值和成长两类股票具有明显基本面 的差异。 价值类股票往往具备更好 的安全边际 成长类股票则可能具备更 好的盈利前景 观察风格间的相对业绩增速趋势,有 助于进行风格配置。除此之外，市场 中也有投资者通过估值指数来衡量价 值与成长之间的风格轮动。 u 大小鱼论动策略 ! 大小盘轮动通常 ...