Group 1 - The market's expectations for Japan's trade outlook have become clearer following U.S. President Trump's announcement of multiple agreements, including the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, leading to increased predictions for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in October [1] - A recent survey of 45 economists indicated that approximately 42% expect the BOJ to raise rates in October, a significant increase from 32% in the previous survey [1] - The BOJ's recent upward revision of inflation forecasts and adjustments to risk assessments are seen as paving the way for a potential rate hike [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's quarterly outlook report raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, indicating a shift in the bank's perception of price risks [4] - Despite the hawkish signals from the BOJ's report, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need for caution, suggesting that there is no immediate necessity for a rate hike [5] - Approximately 44% of economists believe that the weakening yen is increasingly becoming a key factor prompting a rate hike, while 35% disagree [6] Group 3 - Political uncertainty following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's significant defeat in the July 20 Senate elections may pose challenges to the BOJ's monetary policy operations [6] - About 71% of economists think that if Ishiba is replaced by a pro-monetary easing advocate, the BOJ may not be able to raise rates this year [6] - Some analysts question whether the BOJ will have sufficient data to support another rate hike within the year, given the need for careful analysis of economic data [7]

媒体调查结果显示，在接受调查的45位经济学家中，约42%预计日本央行将在10月加息，这一比例较上 次调查的32%有所上升。预计日本央行会在明年1月加息的比例略降至三分之一，而预计会在今年12月 加息的比例则翻了一番达到 11%。没有人认为日本央行会在9月的下次会议上采取行动，但约四分之一 的人认为，在风险情景下，加息最早可能在下个月到来；约60%的人认为，下次加息最早可能在10月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is laying the groundwork for a potential interest rate hike, acknowledging the risk of broad-based inflation due to persistent food price increases [2][5] Group 1: BOJ's Policy Direction - The BOJ's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance, suggesting that the central bank is preparing to act on interest rates after a period of inaction [2][3] - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the decision to raise rates will depend on the likelihood of core inflation reaching the 2% target, rather than waiting for it to be firmly established [2][3] - Analysts predict that the BOJ may raise rates in upcoming meetings, with a 54% chance of a hike to 0.75% in October and a 71% chance by December [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Inflation Risks - The BOJ has revised its inflation outlook, indicating that the risks to price stability are now balanced, contrasting with previous assessments that highlighted downside risks [4] - The central bank is particularly focused on the second-round effects of rising food prices, which could lead to broader inflationary pressures [5][6] - Recent data shows a significant increase in food prices, with 1,010 food and beverage items rising in August and over 3,000 expected to increase in October [5]

SOMPO研究机构：自4月2日以来一直认为0.5%是日本央行的最终利率。但在关税谈判达成协议后，今 年日本央行加息的可能性有所增加。 ...

摩根大通证券首席日本经济学家认为，日本央行可能会在10月加息，并且日元走弱可能迫使央行提前行 动。不过，如果国内政治局势持续不稳定，日本央行可能被迫将加息时间推迟到12月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the US stock market, highlighting the record highs of major indices and the implications of high leverage in trading, alongside upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.46% last week, while the Nasdaq index increased by 1.02%, both closing at all-time highs [3]. - Over 40% of S&P 500 companies are set to release their Q2 earnings this week, with major tech firms like Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm among them [1]. Group 2: Leverage and Risks - As of the end of June, the margin account borrowing balance for US investors surpassed $1 trillion, raising concerns about high leverage in the market [3]. - Analyst Michael Hartnett warns that the risk of a market bubble is increasing due to loose monetary policy and relaxed financial regulations [3][4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 31 is anticipated to be a significant event for global financial markets, with a 95.9% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged [6]. - Market expectations suggest a 61.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and a 49.5% chance in October [6]. Group 4: International Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5%, with a focus on its quarterly outlook report and recent US-Japan trade agreements [7][8]. - There are rising expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year, contingent on global economic conditions [8].

Group 1 - The Japan-US trade agreement, effective from July 22, 2025, significantly reduces Japan's auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, creating conditions for the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy [1] - Following the agreement, the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching 146.82, while Japanese government bond futures declined, indicating a market shift towards higher interest rate expectations [1] - The probability of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has increased from approximately 60% to around 80% by the end of the year, with many respondents anticipating a potential hike in January 2026 or October 2025 [1] Group 2 - Japan's core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June 2025, down from 3.5% in May, driven mainly by food price inflation, still above the 2% target [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's nominal GDP will fall to fifth place globally, overtaken by India, due to yen depreciation affecting dollar-denominated GDP [2] - The Bank of Japan is balancing multiple objectives, focusing on price stability while assessing global financial market volatility's impact on the yen, with potential concerns for export companies if the yen appreciates rapidly [2]

Core Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan creates potential for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates this year, contingent on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The BOJ's assessment of the economic outlook may become more optimistic, moving away from a focus on tariff-related risks [1][2] - The upcoming BOJ policy meeting on July 30-31 is expected to provide a more positive evaluation of the U.S. tariff impacts and possibly adjust inflation forecasts [2][4] Economic Context - Japan's economy has been struggling with weak consumption, rising living costs, and a sluggish manufacturing sector, leading to concerns about recession [1][4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations has previously led the BOJ to lower growth expectations and pause interest rate hikes [1][4] - Despite a recent trade agreement, analysts predict that U.S. tariffs will still negatively impact Japan's GDP growth by approximately 0.55 percentage points [4] BOJ's Policy Outlook - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchid's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more optimistic view regarding achieving the 2% inflation target, which is a prerequisite for further rate hikes [1][2] - The BOJ's internal divisions on the timing of rate hikes reflect ongoing concerns about the fragile state of the economy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [3][4] - Market expectations for a potential rate hike in October are growing, with the two-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a near four-month high of 0.845% [2][4]

Core Insights - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which includes a reduction of tariffs to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US, is expected to significantly alleviate the tariff pressures faced by Japanese manufacturing [1][2] - Barclays has raised its GDP growth forecast for Japan by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8% for the fiscal year 2025, citing positive effects from the new trade agreement [2] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations have been moved forward from January 2024 to October 2023 due to the favorable conditions created by the trade agreement [3] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The trade agreement allows Japan to open its markets to US goods, which is anticipated to increase imports and positively impact Japan's economy [2] - The agreement is seen as a catalyst for potential wage increases in Japan, with a possibility of achieving a 4.5% or higher wage growth in the upcoming spring negotiations [4][7] Group 2: Economic Forecast Adjustments - Barclays had previously downgraded Japan's growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 0.5% due to uncertainties and reduced exports to the US, but the new agreement has led to an upward revision [2] - The agreement is expected to reduce the downward pressure on corporate profits, which may further support wage increases in the manufacturing sector [7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The conditions for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have been met, with the tariff reduction being a significant factor [3] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor has indicated that the trade agreement is a crucial development that reduces economic uncertainty and enhances the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target [3]

凯投宏观：日本央行10月加息概率上升 金十数据7月24日讯，凯投宏观经济学家Marcel Thieliant指出，日本央行10月份加息的可能性似乎更 大。Thieliant表示，美国和日本之间达成的贸易协议消除了一项关键的下行风险，日本央行可能会在下 周的会议上对经济前景做出更乐观的评估。由于通胀远超日本央行的预期，Thieliant坚持认为，日本央 行将在10月份恢复紧缩周期。 ...