1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the conflict between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar continues to increase, downstream demand recovers, and inventory may reach an inflection point. The market sentiment is relatively cautious, with most purchases made on - demand. It is recommended to operate the RB2605 contract with a bullish bias in a volatile market, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [7] - Considering the increase in furnace material prices raising steel - making costs and the rise in international oil prices supporting commodities, it is advisable to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of March 13, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [5] - Rebar production increased to 195.3 tons, up 21.99 tons from the previous week and down 31.8 tons year - on - year [5] - Apparent demand continued to increase to 176.81 tons, up 78.58 tons from the previous week and down 56.41 tons year - on - year [5] - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 894.17 tons, up 18.49 tons from the previous week and up 40.39 tons year - on - year [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13%, up 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and down 12.12 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, Iran may take strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Chinese vice - premier will lead a delegation to France for economic and trade consultations with the US [7] - Cost: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume increased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. However, rising oil prices and freight rates, along with potential restrictions on BHP Newman powder, supported the strong operation of ore prices. The supply of coking coal and coke remained loose, but geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices and the energy sector [7] - Technical: The RB2605 contract moved higher, with the futures price above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. There was strong technical support at 3100. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded upwards, and the red bar expanded [7] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices fluctuated upwards this week. The RB2605 contract was stronger than the RB2610 contract, and the spread on the 13th was - 23 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - Rebar warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On March 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 49651 tons, up 19505 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract was 7230 lots, an increase of 21093 lots from the previous week [19] - Spot prices increased, and the basis weakened. On March 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mm HRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3337 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis on the 13th was 148 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [23] 3.3. Upstream Market - The spot price of iron ore increased, while the spot price of coke remained flat. On March 13, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, up 36 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2697.5 tons, an increase of 467.5 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2609.9 tons, an increase of 463.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1464.5 tons, an increase of 431.7 tons. As of March 13, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17947.32 tons, an increase of 52.49 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 tons, an increase of 5.35 tons [34] - The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.39%, an increase of 0.1%; the daily average coke output was 50.46 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons; coke inventories were 56.43 tons, a decrease of 6.77 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 814.93 tons, an increase of 18.78 tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.26 days [38] 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply Side - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In 2025, China's total crude steel output was 96081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [42] - The weekly output of rebar increased. On March 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 2.24 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.65 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 9.39 tons year - on - year. On March 12, the weekly output of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 195.3 tons, an increase of 21.99 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 31.8 tons year - on - year [45] - The operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased. On March 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 42.82%, an increase of 4.83% from the previous week and a decrease of 6.96% year - on - year. This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.34%, a month - on - month increase of 32.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.59 percentage points. Except for the Northeast and Northwest regions, which remained flat, other regions increased significantly [48] - The total rebar inventory increased month - on - month. On March 12, the in - factory inventory of rebar from 137 building material production enterprises was 239.62 tons, an increase of 1.69 tons from the previous week and an increase of 13.84 tons year - on - year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 654.55 tons, an increase of 16.8 tons from the previous week and an increase of 26.55 tons year - on - year. The total rebar inventory was 894.17 tons, an increase of 18.49 tons month - on - month and an increase of 40.39 tons year - on - year [51] 3.4.2. Demand Side - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 82788 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659890 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The new housing construction area was 58770 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The housing completion area was 60348 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1% - From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [54] 3.5. Options Market - Due to the increase in furnace material prices raising steel - making costs and the rise in international oil prices supporting commodities, it is advisable to consider buying slightly out - of - the - money call options when the futures price pulls back [57]

「2026.3.13」 瑞达期货研究院 铁矿石市场周报 供给扰动+运费涨价 铁矿期价震荡偏强 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2342.1万吨，环比减少348.5万吨。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至3月13日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为811.5（+39.5）元/吨，青岛港60.8%PB粉矿845（+36）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比-442.9万吨。2026年3月2日-3月8日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量2897.8万吨，环比减少442.9 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+467.5万吨。2026年03月02日-03月08日中国47港到港总量2697.5万吨，环比增加467.5万吨；中国45港 到港总量2609.9万吨，环比增加463.0万吨；北方六港到港总量1464.5万吨，环比增加431. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2605 contract is recommended to consider short - term long positions on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control, as the macro - environment has factors such as the US - Iran conflict pushing up oil prices and China maintaining a loose policy, and the industrial side shows a decrease in weekly hot - rolled coil production, an increase in terminal demand, and a slight decline in inventory [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary a. Market Review - As of March 13, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton (+65), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan/ton (+60). The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline to 295.26 (-5.85) million tons (year - on - year - 23.39). The apparent demand increased to 291.31 (+44.58) million tons (year - on - year - 26.72). The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with the total inventory at 471.59 (-0.1) million tons (year - on - year +55.37). The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, a 3.03 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 12.12 - percentage - point decrease from last year [7] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will take strategic measures. Domestically, the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Chinese vice - premier will hold economic and trade consultations with the US. - **Cost - aspect**: The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the domestic port inventory continued to rise. However, factors such as rising oil prices, freight costs, and potential restrictions on BHP Newman powder supported the iron ore price. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose, but geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil and energy prices. - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract's center of gravity moved up, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving - average combination. The MACD indicator showed an upward rebound of DIFF and DEA, with an enlarged red column. - **Market view**: Pay attention to the signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the progress of the US - Iran conflict. Consider short - term long positions on dips for the HC2605 contract [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract fluctuated higher. It was stronger than the HC2610 contract, and the spread on the 13th was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton [15] b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On March 13, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 478483 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5368 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 43985 to 6809 contracts [22] c. Spot Price - On March 13, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3305 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 13th was 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [26] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On March 13, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, with no change from last week [32] b. Iron Ore Shipment and Arrival - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2897.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 442.9 million tons. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2342.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 348.5 million tons. The arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2697.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 467.5 million tons; the arrival volume of 45 ports was 2609.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463.0 million tons; the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 1464.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 431.7 million tons [38] c. Iron Ore Port Inventory - As of March 13, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17947.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.49 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 332.33 million tons, an increase of 5.35 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 260.29 million tons to 8541.78 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 243.40 million tons to 5564.00 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 72.57 million tons to 11852.78 million tons. On March 12, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 241.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.89 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 127.76 million tons [42] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.39%, an increase of 0.1%. The daily coke output was 50.46 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons. The coke inventory was 56.43 million tons, a decrease of 6.77 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal was 814.93 million tons, an increase of 18.78 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.26 days [46] 4. Industry Situation a. Supply Side - **Steel Export**: In 2025, the annual crude steel output was 96081 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In December 2025, the crude steel output was 6818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1559.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [50] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production**: On March 13, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24 percentage points. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The daily average pig - iron output was 221.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.39 million tons. On March 12, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 295.26 million tons, a decrease of 5.85 million tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons [53] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: On March 12, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 8.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons from last week and a year - on - year increase of 4.96 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons [58] b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile**: In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 167.2 million and 180.5 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 412.2 million and 415.2 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively [61] - **Household Appliances**: In 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 26697.49 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the production of household refrigerators was 10924.36 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; and the production of household washing machines was 12516.78 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [61]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for stronger monetary policy actions, particularly interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic recovery and address the financial pressures faced by households and businesses [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for further interest rate cuts to support economic stability and growth [2][3]. - Despite nominal financing costs decreasing, the actual financing costs remain high due to factors like negative growth in producer prices, leading to a decline in corporate profits that outpaces the reduction in financing costs [3][4]. Group 2 - The average return on assets for listed companies is projected to decline to 2.7% from 2022 to 2025, which may deter investment due to insufficient future return expectations [4]. - Household debt, particularly from mortgages, is a significant constraint on domestic demand, with three-quarters of household debt attributed to housing loans, exacerbating the reluctance to consume [4][5]. - A substantial interest rate cut could lower the cost of existing and new loans, improve corporate financial conditions, and enhance investment willingness, thereby stimulating consumption [5][6]. Group 3 - Implementing significant interest rate cuts poses challenges for the banking sector, particularly regarding net interest margin pressures due to the lag in adjusting deposit costs compared to loan rates [6]. - Solutions may include adjusting the reserve requirement ratio to inject low-cost liquidity into the banking system, allowing banks to pass on benefits to the real economy [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on March 13, 2026, and the trend of continuous contracts in March 2026 [2][4]. - It also provides information on macro - news, trading tips, and commodity futures - related information that may affect the futures market [5][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 March 13, 2026 Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be weakly volatile. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4659 and 4687 points, and support at 4627 and 4605 points [16]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be weakly volatile. AU2604 has resistance at 1152.0 and 1162.0 yuan/gram, support at 1132.0 and 1129.2 yuan/gram; AG2606 has resistance at 22400 and 22625 yuan/kilogram, support at 21547 and 21100 yuan/kilogram [2][33]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum, nickel, and others are expected to be strongly volatile [2][41]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are expected to be strongly volatile [2][85]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Some agricultural products like soybean meal and palm oil are expected to be strongly volatile [2][108]. 3.1.2 March 2026 Forecast for Continuous Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to be weakly and widely volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold and silver continuous contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [4]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper continuous contracts are expected to be weakly volatile; aluminum continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [4][41]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [4][86]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing on March 12, 2026, approving a series of reports and passing relevant laws [5]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [5]. - The Ministry of Justice will focus on optimizing the business environment and accelerating legislation in certain fields [5]. - The U.S. will launch trade investigations on 16 major trading partners, which may lead to new tariffs [6]. - Iran's statements on revenge and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have affected the international oil price [7]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 12, 2026, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures rose significantly, while international precious metals futures generally fell [9]. - London base metals showed mixed trends on March 12, 2026 [10]. - Fitch raised the target prices of 14 metals and minerals in 2026 [10]. - The IEA significantly lowered the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for this year [10]. - Ping An Bank will gradually close its agency business of personal precious metals trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange [10].

Economic and Policy Updates - The 14th National People's Congress concluded on March 12, approving key documents including the government work report and the 2026 national economic and social development plan[2]. - The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for sustained economic improvement[2]. Market Performance - On March 12, major A-share indices closed lower, with the CSI 300 down 0.36% and the ChiNext Index leading the decline with a drop of 1.24%[3]. - The market turnover was approximately 2.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 677 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3]. Sector Analysis - The coal sector showed strong performance, rising by 4.24%, while the defense industry led the declines with a drop of 2.33%[3]. - Other sectors such as public utilities and agriculture also performed positively, increasing by 1.89% and 1.32% respectively[3]. Global Market Trends - Major global indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq down 1.78% and the S&P 500 falling by 1.52%[3]. - In Europe, the CAC 40 decreased by 0.71%, while the DAX and FTSE 100 fell by 0.21% and 0.47% respectively[3]. Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.48% to 99.74, while the offshore RMB against the dollar fell by 0.08% to 6.8821[4]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 3 basis points to 1.807%[4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous recommendation of over - allocating stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic commodity futures market, most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, and other sectors also showed different trends [1]. - For the US dollar monetary policy expectations, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which affects the market's long - term inflation and economic judgments. The Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1]. - In the short term, the performance of stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, asphalt in chemicals rose 5.68%, PVC in non - metallic building materials rose 4.40%, the container shipping index (European line) in shipping futures rose 3.07%, palm oil in oils and fats rose 2.43%, coking coal in the black series rose 2.13%, eggs in agricultural and sideline products rose 0.58%, industrial silicon in new energy materials rose 0.41%, Shanghai silver in precious metals fell 2.51%, and Shanghai tin in base metals fell 0.89% [1]. - **Financial Market**: The CSI 300 futures fell 0.5%, the SSE 50 futures fell 0.52%, the CSI 500 futures fell 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 futures fell 0.46%. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%. The US dollar index rose 0.32%, and other indices also showed different changes [7]. - **Industry Index**: The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.24%, the national defense and military industry index fell 2.39%, and other industry indices also had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.94%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.64%, COMEX gold fell 1.11%, and other overseas commodities also showed different price changes [10][11]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: The container shipping index (European line) rose 3.2%, gold fell 0.34%, silver fell 0.88%, and other domestic commodities also had different price fluctuations [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: Due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event shocks, stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and it's necessary to observe domestic economic data to form the next round of trend [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, their performance may be affected [1]. - **TS, TF**: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be shock - strong, stock index options are expected to be shock, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be shock [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be shock [4]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be shock [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., are mostly expected to be shock, with some varieties having a shock - weak tendency [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [5]. - **Agriculture**: Oils, grains, and other varieties have different short - term trends, such as shock - strong, shock - weak, etc. [5].

Group 1: Banking Industry Overview - The recent economic theme meeting during the "Two Sessions" highlighted the continuous reduction of risks in key areas, with a focus on maintaining a favorable liquidity environment for banks through an accommodative monetary policy [2][3] - The central bank will utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to keep the comprehensive financing costs low, ensuring banks transparently display loan costs to enterprises [2][3] - Structural monetary policy tools, amounting to approximately 5.5 trillion yuan, will focus on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3][4] Group 2: Credit Policy and Risk Management - The credit structure is being optimized, with significant growth in loans to technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital sectors, all exceeding the average growth rate of total loans [3][4] - There has been a notable reduction in the number and scale of financing platform debts, with over a 70% decrease compared to early 2023, indicating effective risk mitigation efforts [4] - The current credit policy emphasizes balancing risk and return, with a focus on supporting key sectors while managing credit risks to avoid blind expansion [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In the context of a weak economic recovery, banks are shifting focus from aggressive credit expansion to a balanced approach to risk and return, which is expected to alleviate margin pressure and improve asset quality [5] - High dividend yield banks are seen as having significant allocation value, with potential for valuation recovery in a balanced market environment [5] - Recommendations include state-owned large and medium-sized banks, as well as regionally strong banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [5]

作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周四大幅下跌，原油价格飙升至每桶100美元附近，加剧通胀担忧，投资者纷纷撤离股市。 2026.03. 13 本文字数：2219，阅读时长大约4分钟 标普500指数11个主要板块中，除能源板块和部分防御性股票外，其余板块普遍走低。其中，能源板块上涨1.0%，表现最佳；工业板块下跌2.5%，跌 幅居首。依赖霍尔木兹海峡运输的农业化肥企业因价格飙升而上涨，标普化肥与农用化学品指数上涨4.9%。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌739.42点，跌幅1.56%，报46677.85点；标普500指数下跌103.18点，跌幅1.52%，报6672.62点；纳斯达克综 合指数下跌404.15点，跌幅1.78%，报22311.98点。 大型科技股普遍下跌。超威半导体跌3.46%，特斯拉跌3.14%，Meta跌2.55%，甲骨文跌2.43%，苹果跌1.94%，谷歌-A跌1.67%，博通跌1.64%，英伟 达跌1.54%，亚马逊跌1.47%，微软跌0.73%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.02%。网易涨0.88%，腾讯音乐涨2.47%，小鹏汽车涨3.55%，蔚来涨1.19%。富途控股跌6.3 ...

Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging situation where its dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining a healthy labor market is pulling policy in opposite directions [2][4] - Recent labor market figures indicate a cooling momentum, with February's Non-Farm Payrolls report showing a decline of 92,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3][4] - Inflation remains elevated, with the Fed's preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, at 2.9% for the headline figure and 3.0% for core PCE, both above the central bank's 2% target [3][4] Stagflation Concerns - The combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation has raised concerns about a stagflationary environment, complicating the policy response for the Federal Reserve [4] - Actions aimed at addressing inflation could further slow economic activity, while policies supporting growth risk keeping price pressures elevated [4] Energy Prices Impact - A recent surge in energy prices, particularly oil, has the potential to exacerbate inflation, affecting transportation, manufacturing, and consumer spending [5] - Elevated energy prices could create ripple effects across the economy, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve officials are responding cautiously, with some indicating that holding interest rates steady while gathering more data may be the most appropriate course of action [6] - Market expectations reflect uncertainty, with futures pricing suggesting that rate cuts remain possible later in the year, dependent on incoming inflation and growth data [6] Future Considerations - The path for monetary policy may largely hinge on energy markets; if oil prices remain high, inflation risks could delay easing [7] - Conversely, if energy pressures ease while the labor market continues to soften, the case for rate cuts would strengthen [7]