12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 多家券商首席经济学家分享了最新的学习体会。券商预计，2025年顺利实现发展目标，2026年仍需保持较高的 目标设定，兼顾"硬实力"与"软实力"，统筹内外，优化存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，着力创造就业保"四 稳"，构建流畅内循环、强韧性的内需市场，持之以恒改善民生；政策实施层面注重政策落地后的持续推进增 强实效，政策部署更重衔接协同集成效应。 财政和货币政策仍有较大空间 会议指出，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。对此，浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示， 结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点，2026年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合 考虑结转结余，则2026年广义财政力度或将下降。预计2026年赤字率可能设定为4.0%—4.2%左右，对应赤字 规模为5.89万亿元至6.19万亿元，广义赤字规模约为11.79万亿元至12.09万亿元。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵表示，此次会议仍将"扩大内需"工作放在首位，其次新增表述"优化供给"，"坚持 创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，相比于7月会议而言，此次会议将产业相关内容提 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Copper and zinc prices have rebounded recently; chemical product prices are slightly fluctuating; international crude oil prices are rising, while liquefied natural gas prices are oscillating downward [2] Midstream - The operating rates of chemical products have collectively declined; the coal consumption of power plants is at the median level in three years; the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have recently rebounded collectively; the number of domestic and international flights has decreased [4] Key Industry News Production Industry - Chinese official Ling Ji held video talks with German and European automobile industry associations, discussing China - Germany and China - Europe automobile industry and supply - chain cooperation, and hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case [1] - On December 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting private car owners and logistics enterprises [1] Service Industry - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators (as of December 8) Agriculture - The spot price of corn is 2238.6 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the spot price of eggs is 6.5 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%; the spot price of palm oil is 8726.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; the spot price of cotton is 15033.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.36%; the average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [36] Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of copper is 92243.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3.39%; the spot price of zinc is 23100.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 2.48%; the spot price of aluminum is 21933.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; the spot price of nickel is 120400.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.19%; another spot price of aluminum is 17300.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [36] Black Metals - The spot price of rebar is 3213.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%; the spot price of iron ore is 805.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the spot price of wire rod is 3395.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [36] Others - The spot price of glass is 13.8 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.72%; the spot price of natural rubber is 14843.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.88%; the China Plastic City price index is 766.0, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [36] Energy - The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.1 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.61%; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 63.8 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.20%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3874.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%; the coal price is 809.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [36] Chemicals - The spot price of PTA is 4687.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.32%; the spot price of polyethylene is 6845.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the spot price of urea is 1720.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the spot price of soda ash is 1205.7 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [36] Real Estate and Building Materials - The national cement price index is 135.4, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the building materials composite index is 115.5 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the national concrete price index is 90.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.00% [36]

融 期货研 2025年12月9日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4621.75 | 1 0. 81 | | 4967. 2 | | | | | | IF2512 | 4613. 2 | ↑ 0. 76 | -8. 55 | 1053. 1 | 76082 | ↓ 8672 | 132821 | ↓ 10475 | | IF2601 | 4597. 4 | 1 0. 84 | -24. 35 | 98. 9 | 7171 | ↑ 2166 | 12625 | ↑ 2113 | | IF2603 | 4576 | 1 0. 80 | -45.75 | 428. 4 | 31206 | ↑ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - Platinum has not escaped the volatile range yet [1] - Palladium shows a significant bottom rise in the technical dimension [2] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Price - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 443.20 with a 0.20% increase, and the gold exchange platinum closed at 435.30 with a 0.00% increase. The New York platinum main contract closed at 1662.00 with a 0.42% increase, and the London spot platinum closed at 1651.40 with a 1.00% increase [2] - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 383.70 with a 0.51% increase. The New York palladium main contract closed at 1517.50 with a 1.97% - 3.06% increase, and the London spot palladium closed at 1475.00 with a 1.23% increase [2] Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of Guangzhou platinum was 10,041, an increase of 1,533 from the previous day, and the position was 12,865. The trading volume of NYMEX platinum was 24,655, an increase of 1,820, and the position was 61,853, a decrease of 1,473 [2] - The trading volume of Guangzhou palladium was 5,061, an increase of 371, and the position was 3,567, an increase of 220. The trading volume of NYMEX palladium was 3,606, a decrease of 788, and the position was 19,292, an increase of 85 [2] ETF Position - The platinum ETF position (ounces) was 3,124,461 the previous day, with no change. The palladium ETF position (ounces) was 1,093,932 the previous day, with no change [2] Inventory - The inventory of Guangzhou platinum (kilograms) remained unchanged. The NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) the previous day was 614,713, a decrease of 235. The inventory of Guangzhou palladium (kilograms) remained unchanged, and the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) the previous day was 176,705, an increase of 4,315 [2] Spread - The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -7.90, a decrease of 0.92 from the previous day. The spread between the Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and the 2610 contract was -0.45, an increase of 0.60 [2] - The spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 59.86, a decrease of 3.79. The spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -22, an increase of 5.05 [2] Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 99.11, an increase of 0.12%. The US dollar against the onshore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.01%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.07, an increase of 0.02%. The US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.98, a decrease of 0.26% [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The hot candidate for the Fed Chairman, Hassett, stated that the future path should not be announced in advance and reiterated data dependence [5] - The Russian Deputy Prime Minister announced that gold bar exports will be restricted starting from 2026 [5] - OpenAI reported that ChatGPT currently serves over 800 million users per week [5] - NVIDIA will provide H200 to commercial customers approved by the US Department of Commerce [5] - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in November were 2.225 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [5] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented [5] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 0; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

2025 年 12 月 09 日 锌：偏强震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23285 | -0.09% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3098.5 | 0.44% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 180254 | 17105 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 13271 | 38 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 108666 | 1114 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 220291 | -2099 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 70 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 163 | -79.66 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 9 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：金融搭台科技唱戏 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：重要会议过后，债市情绪缓和 4 | | 蛋白粕：短期利空较多 | 盘面承压下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡偏弱 | 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：国内油脂有所去库，盘面维持震荡运行 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面继续回落 7 | | | 生猪：市场接受度增加 | 盘面有所反弹 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面冲高回落 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 9 | | 苹果：库存较低 | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：市场情绪反复，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：情绪偏弱，等待冬储启动 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 15 | | 金银：市场聚焦美联储信号 金银波动或加剧 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：价格高位 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一铁矿收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 | | | | | 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。会议强调，做好明年经济工作，明年经济工 | | | | | 作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 | | | | | 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升 | | | | | 宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培 | | | | | 育壮大新动能；坚持改革 ...

中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继 续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动， 加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大， 努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 ...

"我国人民币贷款余额超过270万亿元，比起单纯垒高增量来说，向存量要效益、优化资金供给结构更为 重要。"粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒认为，明年货币政策可从四个方面发力：一是择机 实施降准降息，强化逆周期调节，平滑经济波动；二是用好结构性工具，引导资金流向科创、消费等重 点领域；三是深化货币政策框架改革，疏通传导机制；四是盘活存量金融资源，提升资金使用效率。 在财政政策方面，罗志恒建议："优化财政支出结构，进一步向居民端和民生保障倾斜，提高育儿补贴 金额、给青年失业群体发放一定时期（例如半年）低保水平的救助，修复居民部门资产负债表优化化债 方式，进一步提高债务限额，缓解地方债务压力等。" 会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效 能。 王青认为，这显示宏观政策保持很强的连续性、稳定性，将有效稳定社会预期，提振市场信心。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜对《中国经营报》记者表示："更加积极的财政政策+适度宽松的货 币政策"这一组合保持不变，宏观总基调仍是"宽财政+宽货 ...