中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 2026年两会前瞻：五大看点 >>点击图片查看全文<< 全国两会即将召开，我们认为在两会期间主要关注以下看点：1）十五五纲要，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民 经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。2）扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。3）建设全国统一大市场。 4）化解重点领域风险。5）两会期间可能安排及重要事项。我们认为受益于积极政策及改革预期、中外流动性宽松周期共振、AI技术革命与能源 革命支撑部分产业需求，带动上市公司业绩改善，市场"稳进"趋势有望延续。结构上，受益于两会政策预期的板块通常表现出超额收益，今年两会 期间建议重点关注顺周期、科技成长等领域。 2026.2.25 | 李求索 李瑾等 02 中金研究 CICC Research 一文看懂春节数据 >>点击图片查看全文<< 2026年春节假期数据出炉，总体来看消费景气度得到提升。在本文中，我们从宏观、策略、轻工零售美妆、旅游酒店及餐饮、纺织服装珠宝、传 媒、互联网等角度为大家详细解读。 202 ...

(1)十五五纲要：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议将审查国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。 (2)扩大国内需求，稳定经济增长。按照惯例，在3月5日全国人大开幕会议上，政府工作报告有望提出 2026年工作目标，包括GDP增速、通胀、赤字率目标、货币政策与财政政策安排等。 2月26日，中金发表报告指出，全国政协十四届四次会议和十四届全国人大四次会议分别将于2026年3月 4日和3月5日在北京召开。结合当前的国内外经济增长与政策环境，从资本市场投资角度，该行认为在 两会期间主要关注以下看点： (3)建设全国统一大市场。"十五五"规划建议提出"消除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方 面壁垒，规范地方政府经济促进行为，破除地方保护和市场分割"。相关行动有望继续推进。 (4)化解重点领域风险。当前房地产行业处于转型期，去库存和化债都是重要课题，今年关注主要城市 尤其是一线城市库存去化进度。 (5)两会期间可能安排及重要事项：结合惯例来看，可能包括政府工作报告、代表、委员和部长通道、 人大议案、政协提案、主题记者会等环节，关注两会期间各部委(如发改 ...

（1）十五五纲要： 2035年我国将基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"时期是承上启下关键阶段。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，两会期间全国人大会议 将审查国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案，相关中长期改革有望逐步部署、实施。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2026年两会前瞻：五大看点 全国政协十四届四次会议和十四届全国人大四次会议分别将于2026年3月4日和3月5日在北京召开。结合当前的国内外经济增长与政策环境，从资本市场投 资角度，我们认为在两会期间主要关注以下看点： 建设现代化产业体系，培育新动能。 现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础。产业结构调整一方面是支持科技创新，促进技术进步与现代化产 业发展、产业链供应链安全相融合，当前政策重点领域[1]如新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略新兴产业集群，以及量子科技、生物制造、氢 能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等未来产业。另一方面是继续优化提升传统产业，推动产业升级并缓解部分行业阶段性供过于求的 压力。 提振消费，改善民生。 面对海外地缘事件频发、国内需求不足的挑战，消费有望成为更重要的经济增长动能，稳增长政策已经向促消费倾斜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Finance Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and strengthening fiscal-financial collaboration. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - The conference outlines the need to expand the fiscal expenditure base to ensure necessary spending levels [1] - It highlights the optimization of government bond tools to better leverage their effectiveness [1] - There is a focus on improving the efficiency of transfer payments to enhance local financial autonomy [1] - Continuous optimization of expenditure structure is emphasized to strengthen support for key areas [1] - The importance of fiscal-financial collaboration to amplify policy effectiveness is noted [1] Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The conference stresses the need to support domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, with initiatives to boost consumption and effective investment in key areas [2] - It calls for increased fiscal investment in technology and industry innovation, aiming to foster new growth drivers [2] - There is a commitment to promote urban-rural integration and regional coordination to expand development space [2] - Strengthening basic social security and enhancing employment and education services are prioritized to ensure public welfare [2] - The conference advocates for a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, focusing on pollution prevention and ecosystem protection [2] Group 3: Financial Management and Reforms - The need for comprehensive fiscal management and adherence to frugality in government spending is highlighted [3] - The conference emphasizes the importance of risk management and establishing long-term mechanisms for government debt management [3] - It calls for deepening fiscal and tax system reforms while ensuring effective asset management [3] - The conference also mentions the importance of international financial cooperation and the advancement of global economic governance [3] Group 4: Achievements and Future Directions - The conference reflects on the achievements of 2025, noting the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies in supporting economic goals [4] - It highlights the significant increase in basic research funding and the promotion of digital transformation for SMEs [4] - The need for continuous enhancement of social security measures and employment policies is reiterated [4] - The conference discusses the importance of addressing risks in key areas and managing hidden debts effectively [4] - It emphasizes the completion of international financial cooperation initiatives, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [4]

Economic News - The China-Australia Free Trade Agreement has significantly promoted the economic and trade relations between the two countries since its implementation in 2015, with a memorandum signed in July 2025 to initiate a comprehensive review of the agreement [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that China's investment potential remains substantial, emphasizing the need for continued investment in areas such as education, healthcare, housing, and public services to meet the people's needs for a better life [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle approvals, marking a key step towards commercial application in specified areas [1] - In November 2025, major steel companies produced 18.69 million tons of crude steel, with a daily production increase of 2.8% compared to the previous month [1] - The pickup truck market saw sales of 56,000 units in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16.8%, reaching a five-year high [1] Company News - Xinhua Insurance reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of RMB 188.85 billion from January 1 to November 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [2] - Dongfeng Motor's board secretary increased his shareholding by 30,000 shares, accounting for 0.0006% of the company's total share capital [4] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 6.51% year-on-year increase in passenger capacity and a 10.35% increase in passenger turnover in November 2025, with a seat occupancy rate of 87.37%, up 3.04 percentage points [4] - Lu'an Huanneng's raw coal production in November 2025 was 4.32 million tons, with a cumulative production of 51.38 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.67% [4] - Suzhou Bank's registered capital was approved to change from RMB 3.667 billion to RMB 4.471 billion [4] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks including Beijing Lier, Muyuan Foods, and Ganyuan Foods among others, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The core economic growth target for next year is set at around 5%, focusing on employment and livelihood improvements, with a clear signal for more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [1][3] - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand will drive consumption and investment as the main growth engines, with measures to enhance consumer spending and optimize investment structures [3][4] - The government plans to implement a more aggressive fiscal policy, with a projected deficit rate of approximately 4%-4.2% and an increase in special bond issuance to support infrastructure and social welfare [5][6] Group 2 - Innovation-driven actions will accelerate, with a focus on developing education and technology talent, and enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation [4][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately eased, providing ample liquidity and lowering financing costs to support domestic demand and technological innovation [5][6] - High-level opening-up will be expanded, promoting foreign trade quality and efficiency, and increasing international job opportunities [6][7] Group 3 - The government aims to pragmatically address risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt, with policies tailored to local conditions [6][7] - The transition from old to new growth drivers will be expedited, with a focus on service sector expansion and the integration of artificial intelligence [7][8] - The overall economic strategy is designed to ensure stability and growth, with a focus on policy implementation that directly benefits the public [8]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasizes the importance of solidly advancing key development and reform tasks for the coming year, focusing on adapting to demographic changes and optimizing public resource allocation [1] Group 1: Population and Resource Allocation - The conference highlights the need to plan and promote high-quality population development, accelerating the improvement of public resource allocation mechanisms that adapt to demographic changes [1] - There is a call for a forward-looking layout of educational resources to better meet the needs of the changing population [1] Group 2: Urban and Regional Development - The meeting stresses the importance of promoting urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development, advancing people-centered new urbanization construction [1] - It advocates for increased implementation of regional strategies and accelerating the promotion of inter-regional linkage and integrated development [1] Group 3: Rural Revitalization and Special Regions - The conference calls for a classified, orderly, and regionalized approach to rural revitalization, focusing on promoting the development of special types of regions [1] Group 4: Security and Resilience - There is an emphasis on better coordinating development and security, continuously improving food security assurance capabilities [1] - The construction of the energy production, supply, storage, and sales system is to be advanced, enhancing the resilience of industrial and supply chains while actively and prudently addressing risks in key areas [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need to adapt to demographic changes by optimizing public resource allocation and promoting high-quality population development [1] Group 1: Public Resource Allocation - The NDRC plans to enhance the forward-looking layout of educational resources in response to demographic changes [1] - There is a focus on improving the public resource allocation mechanism to better suit population changes [1] Group 2: Urban and Rural Development - The meeting highlights the importance of promoting urban-rural integration and regional coordinated development [1] - A new type of urbanization that prioritizes human needs will be advanced, with increased efforts in regional strategy implementation [1] Group 3: Rural Revitalization - The NDRC aims to promote rural revitalization in a classified, orderly, and area-specific manner [1] - Special attention will be given to the revitalization of specific types of regions [1] Group 4: Security and Risk Management - There is a commitment to better coordinate development and security, with a focus on enhancing food security capabilities [1] - The construction of a resilient energy supply chain system will be continuously promoted to mitigate risks in key areas [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Projections - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, with major economic indicators performing better than expected, and the total economic output is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1]. - The central economic work conference identified eight key tasks for the upcoming year, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Economic Development - External factors such as geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and instability in global supply chains are impacting economic growth [2]. - Domestic issues include weak consumer demand, insufficient investment growth, and challenges faced by enterprises, leading to difficulties in production and sales [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Actions - The government plans to implement policies to stimulate consumption and investment, including a special action plan to boost consumer spending and a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [3]. - There is a need to optimize the use of local government special bonds and enhance the role of new policy financial tools to invigorate private investment [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of risk management, particularly in addressing local government debt and ensuring financial stability [5]. - Measures will be taken to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and to support the resolution of risks in local small financial institutions [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rise in the shares of Chinese real estate companies following the Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks effectively [1][2] - Notable stock price increases include: R&F Properties up 5.92% to HKD 0.161, Shimao Group up 4.83% to HKD 0.217, Aoyuan Group up 3.28% to HKD 0.315, and Sunac China up 2.27% to HKD 1.35 [1] - The conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, focusing on risk management in critical areas, particularly in real estate, and promoting the construction of affordable housing [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Zheshang Securities noted a shift in language from "effective prevention" to "active and prudent resolution" of risks, indicating a more responsive approach to recent corporate risk events [2] - The emphasis on "actively and prudently resolving key area risks" suggests that market-oriented and legal measures may be gradually implemented to address these issues [2]