金十数据6月5日讯，据外媒报道，美国4月份的贸易逆差创下历史最大降幅，主要原因是进口大幅减 少，这表明一些公司在高额关税实施前提前大量囤积商品的现象突然结束。美国商务部数据显示，商品 和服务贸易逆差较上月缩小了55.5%，降至616亿美元，为2023年以来最低水平，并且完全逆转了第一 季度逆差急剧扩大的情况。4月份贸易逆差的急剧缩小有望使贸易在第二季度对GDP做出重大贡献，此 前贸易逆差扩大，在很大程度上导致一季度年化GDP下降了0.2%。 美国贸易逆差创历史最大降幅 ...

6月5日消息，韩国第一季度GDP同比持平，预估下降0.1%；第一季度GDP环比下降0.2%，预估为 0.2%。 ...

智通财经6月5日电，韩国第一季度GDP同比持平，预估为-0.1%。 ...

May 30, 2025 01:48 PM GMT US Economics | North America Slowing inflation, spending holding up Core PCE was slightly lower than expected in April, showing a clear downward trend before the tariff impulse. Real spending was slightly stronger than expected, though Q1 spending was revised down. Income growth was strong due to one-time payments. The trade deficit narrowed as imports fell sharply. | M Slowing inflation, spending | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 | | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - South Korea's manufacturing activity has contracted for the fourth consecutive month in May, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slightly rising to 47.7 from 47.5 in April, remaining below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction in the sector [1] - The contraction in South Korea's manufacturing is attributed to weak domestic demand and the impact of increased U.S. trade tariffs, with new orders experiencing the largest decline since June 2020 and factory output decreasing at the fastest rate in two and a half years [1] - The Bank of Korea has initiated its fourth rate cut in the current easing cycle, lowering the economic growth forecast for the year from 1.5% to 0.8%, reflecting the pressures from weak domestic consumption and the adverse effects of U.S. tariff policies on exports [2] Group 2 - The economic outlook for South Korea is becoming increasingly pessimistic, with global investment banks predicting growth expectations below 1%, and the average growth rate forecast dropping to the 0.9% range within four weeks [2] - Manufacturing activity across much of Asia has slowed due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, with Japan's manufacturing PMI at 49.4 in May, indicating continued contraction for the 11th month, and Japan's GDP declining by 0.2% in the first quarter [2] - Despite the challenges, there are cautious signs of optimism regarding economic prospects, with some recovery in hiring activities in South Korea and Japan, as manufacturers anticipate improvements in global demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - India's GDP is projected to surpass Japan, positioning it as the fourth-largest economy globally, with aspirations to enter the top three within the next few years [1][3][4]. Economic Growth and Projections - The CEO of the National Transformation Council, B. V. R. Subrahmanyam, announced that India's economy has reached $4 trillion, surpassing Japan [3]. - According to the IMF, India's GDP for the fiscal year 2025 is estimated at $41,870.17 billion, slightly exceeding Japan's projected $41,864.31 billion [4]. - India's economic growth has been robust, while Japan has faced stagnation, with a mere $2,000 billion increase in output from 2000 to 2019 [4]. Challenges and Concerns - Despite the growth in GDP, there are concerns regarding the concentration of wealth, with the top 1% of the population holding over 40% of the nation's wealth [5]. - India's per capita GDP is projected to be around $2,800 in 2025, ranking approximately 140th globally, indicating a need for improvement in average income levels [5]. - The Modi government has emphasized the importance of transitioning from a service-oriented economy to a more balanced structure that includes a robust manufacturing sector [8][9]. Manufacturing Sector Initiatives - The "Production Linked Incentive" (PLI) scheme was introduced to boost manufacturing in various sectors, but progress has been slow, with only 37% of the target achieved by 2024 [9]. - Challenges in attracting manufacturing investments include difficulties in finding suitable labor, despite India's young population [9][10]. Future Aspirations - Prime Minister Modi has set ambitious goals for India's economic development, aiming to position the country as a developed nation by 2047 [8]. - Economic experts emphasize the need for improvements in education and job creation to fully leverage India's demographic potential [10].

V i e w p o i n t | 29 May 2025 09:33:57 ET │ 10 pages US Economics Final private domestic demand softer in second release of Q1 GDP CITI'S TAKE The second release of Q1 GDP still shows a modest contraction in growth (- 0.2% compared to -0.3% initially) due to a surge in imports before tariffs. Final private domestic demand rose 2.5%, still much stronger than the overall GDP figure. But if anything, revisions to final private domestic demand suggests softer underlying demand than previously. Consumption, pa ...

Market Overview - A-shares declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 15.96 points or 0.47% to close at 3,347 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 283.61 points or 1.20%, closing at 23,289 points[1] - The Straits Times Index in Singapore decreased by 22.23 points or 0.57%, ending at 3,894[1] Economic Indicators - Germany's CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in May, exceeding market expectations of 2%[1] - The U.S. PCE price index increased by 2.1% year-on-year in April, marking the lowest level in seven months, down from 2.3% in March[1] - Canada's Q1 GDP grew by 2.2% year-on-year, surpassing the market forecast of 1.7%[1] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 54.34 points or 0.13% to 42,270.07[1] - The S&P 500 Index fell slightly by 0.48 points or 0.01% to 5,911.69[1] - The Nasdaq Index decreased by 62.10 points or 0.32%, closing at 19,113.77[1] Commodity Prices - Gold futures declined by 28.20 points or 0.85%, settling at 3,288.90[1] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell by 0.15 points or 0.25%, closing at 60.79[1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a revised Q1 GDP growth of -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), which is an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates [1][6] Core Insights - The revision details show softer underlying growth, particularly in real domestic final sales, which were revised down by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a 0.6 percentage point downward revision in consumer spending growth [1][6] - The contribution of inventory accumulation to GDP growth was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6 percentage points, while net exports' contribution was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to -4.9 percentage points [6][7] - Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.2% in Q1, influenced by a significant drag from net dividends, which saw a $125 billion increase from the rest of the world, the largest since 2018 [7][8] - Core PCE inflation for April is forecasted at 0.10%, leading to a year-over-year rate of 2.49%, while headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.09%, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.12% [8][9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, exceeding expectations, with continuing claims also showing an increase [9][10] Summary by Sections GDP and Economic Activity - Q1 GDP growth was revised to -0.2%, with consumer spending growth revised down to +1.2% [2][6] - Equipment investment growth saw a significant upward revision to +24.8% [6][7] Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was revised down to +3.41% annualized, with the year-on-year rate at +2.76% [8] - The GDP deflator was also revised down to +3.70% annualized [8] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 240,000, with a four-week moving average remaining at 231,000 [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that both Bank of Montreal (BMO) and Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) have abandoned their expectations for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates in June [1] - Recent data indicates that Canada's GDP showed strong performance in the first quarter [1]