Group 1 - The recent performance of the euro against the dollar has been "lackluster," leading to doubts about the sustainability of the rebound, but market sentiment is not as pessimistic as it seems, indicating a potential for further upward movement after adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy is increasingly perceived as dovish, suggesting a shift towards easing and rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness as investors reassess their expectations for interest rate differentials [1] - Structural issues in the U.S. economy are causing investors to question how long the dollar can maintain its strength, indicating a shift in market sentiment from reliance on the dollar to caution regarding its future performance [1] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, while short-term economic data is not impressive, Germany's plans to increase fiscal spending are seen as a potential game-changer, which could lead to a re-evaluation of the euro's value in the market [3] - If Europe implements more aggressive fiscal policies alongside previous trade progress with the U.S., the euro could be viewed as an asset with recovery potential rather than just a defensive currency [3] - Analysts generally expect the euro to reach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of the year, with potential for further gains in the coming years, which could attract more investment at lower levels [3] Group 3 - The current market atmosphere indicates that while there are risks of a decline for the dollar, the euro is viewed as bullish in the medium to long term, though short-term movements require patience and caution [4] - This period may represent a "prelude to a significant directional change" in the market, suggesting that a more substantial trend may be developing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of ING, Carsten Brzeski, maintains the expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in September after a pause in today's meeting [1] Group 1 - Core inflation and service sector inflation remain above 2%, providing the ECB with little reason to move away from its current "comfort zone" [1] - If two more weak inflation data points emerge over the summer, along with hard data consistently underperforming soft data, a final rate cut may be seen in the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - In February, 12 out of 20 industries in Canada experienced a decline, while the manufacturing sector grew by 0.6% [1] - The financial and insurance sectors have seen a continuous increase for three months, with a growth rate of 0.7% in February, partially offsetting the overall economic downturn [1] - The winter storms in central, eastern Canada, and British Columbia have negatively impacted the economy, particularly affecting the transportation and warehousing sector, which declined by 1.1% [4] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the unexpected decline in February is likely due to severe weather rather than tariff uncertainties, with significant impacts on mining, oil and gas, transportation, and real estate sectors [6] - The manufacturing sector is highlighted as a "bright spot," with a 0.6% growth in February, driven mainly by durable goods manufacturing, particularly machinery, which grew by 5.9% [7] - Deloitte's economic outlook predicts that the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the second quarter of this year, with a projected GDP growth rate of -1.1% for Q2 and -0.9% for Q3 [11][12] Group 3 - The Bank of Canada indicates that the era of low interest rates may be coming to an end, with a forecasted benchmark interest rate of 2.25% by the end of 2025, which is still higher than most of the 2010s [14] - The unemployment rate is expected to exceed 7% this year, with a projected loss of 75,000 jobs in the next two quarters, particularly in export-sensitive sectors like manufacturing, steel, and aluminum [14] - The current trade threats could lead to a permanent reduction of about 3% in Canada's real GDP by 2030 if exceptions in the USMCA are removed, highlighting the urgency to address long-term economic issues [17]

Core Viewpoint - Economists suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to take on the responsibility of boosting economic activity in the Eurozone due to ongoing trade tensions and economic challenges [1] Economic Indicators - The April PMI data indicates a further easing of price pressures, which supported the ECB's recent interest rate cut [1] - The combination of low price pressures and weakened economic activity suggests that the ECB may implement additional rate cuts in the future [1] Trade and Fiscal Policy - If current trade conflicts do not resolve, the ECB will be tasked with addressing economic issues within the Eurozone [1] - Germany's announced fiscal stimulus plan and increased defense spending efforts in Europe are expected to take time before significantly impacting economic activity [1]