综上，对大盘后市判断如下：一是大盘处于冲高过程中的震荡，属受利好影响的冲高震荡形式；二是大 盘短期内仍会活跃，只是板块间会进行强弱转换和轮动；三是调整时间预计3至5天，谈判进展等外围因 素可能影响调整时长，但中期趋势在技术指标如S01拐头向上后，仍是震荡攀升过程。 通过融资融券数据观察，兑现筹码的主要是场内中小散户。前期大盘连续反弹20天，积累了一定获利筹 码，在当前盘面格局下，借助利好兑现属正常现象。而且，这种兑现走势不会一两天结束，预计会延续 3至5天，但空间有限。今日2点后，引领大盘反弹的新力量出现，这些力量来自与谈判关注相关的反制 方向，如农业、粮食、稀土等板块，尾盘这些板块明显拉升。此前这些板块在3040点反弹时表现最强， 市场呈现出短期内涨多则调、调多则涨的强弱转换节奏。 目前成交量温和放大，市场活跃度增加，短期内调整时其他板块会反复活跃。不过，明日是反弹的第二 十一天周期，从量价时空的"时"来看，该周期点会起作用。当前位置是前期高位筹码集中套牢区，虽然 今日缺口已补，但下方也留下缺口，短期会通过震荡消化或回补缺口，这也是冲高后震荡回调的预期方 向。 5月7日，和讯投顾谢正光表示，今日市场迎来降准 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend, with potential testing of today's opening high at 3277, followed by a likely pullback to fill gaps and establish a new upward structure [1] - Trading volume has returned to a scale of 1.5 trillion, indicating a slight increase in activity, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to face resistance and may experience a peak followed by a decline this week [1] - The average stock price has reached a critical level, similar to the point before a significant drop, suggesting substantial resistance at higher levels [1] Group 2 - The strength of the current upward movement is notable, with comparisons to previous structures indicating that a reversal is likely, regardless of whether new highs are achieved [2] - The market's ability to return to a trading range will be crucial for determining future performance, with the potential for a third buying point influencing upward movement [2] - Other indices, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext, are expected to follow a similar framework, with attention on whether a new platform structure can be established [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a high opening followed by a decline, which is a typical reaction to positive news such as interest rate cuts. However, the current situation is not identical to previous occurrences, as the trading volume is moderate rather than excessive, indicating a normal profit-taking process by retail investors after a 20-day rally [1][2]. Market Analysis - The market is expected to continue the high opening and low closing trend for the next 3 to 5 days, but the space for decline will be limited. New driving forces for market rebound are emerging, particularly in sectors like agriculture, grain, and rare earths, which showed significant gains towards the end of the trading day [2][4]. - The overall market is in a rotational rhythm, with increasing trading volume indicating heightened market activity. This suggests that while there may be short-term adjustments, other sectors will continue to see fluctuations in activity [3][4]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to remain active in the short term, with sector rotations between strong and weak performers. Adjustments are expected to last no longer than 3 to 5 days, influenced by external factors such as negotiation progress. The medium-term trend is expected to shift upwards after a period of consolidation [4].

Group 1 - The market showed strong upward momentum at the beginning of the trading day, with a significant gap up and a new rebound high of 3314, indicating a strong trend for the start of the month and week [2] - A breakthrough above the resistance levels of 3317-3342 is necessary to confirm the strength of the market, while maintaining above 3300 is crucial for a potential upward shift [2][3] - The closing levels for the day are critical, with a target to close above 3326, ideally above 3336, to indicate strength, while a close below 3316 would be concerning [4] Group 2 - The daily life line is positioned around 3295, and the market must remain above this level to maintain a bullish outlook [3] - Key resistance levels for the market are identified between 3296-3305, with the upper boundary being essential for continued upward movement [3] - The mid to long-term outlook indicates that the market must stay above the 60-day moving average to maintain a bullish state, and above the 250-day moving average to avoid reverting to a bearish market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the analysis indicates that the market opened significantly higher due to the announcement of ten policies by the central bank, including interest rate cuts and reductions in housing loan rates, aimed at stimulating the stock market [1] - Despite the initial surge, the market experienced a pullback, raising concerns about whether the positive news had been fully priced in and if a substantial decline was imminent [1] - Data shows that there were 3,287 stocks rising compared to 1,647 falling, indicating that the bullish sentiment remains strong, with only a small number of stocks experiencing significant declines [1] Group 2 - The market's weakness today is attributed to a noticeable reduction in bullish momentum, as evidenced by a significant decrease in stocks rising over 5% compared to the previous day [2] - The analysis suggests that the high number of stocks rising yesterday (over 90%) led to a natural pullback today, which is a typical market behavior when bullish energy is released too quickly [2] - The expected trading volume for the day is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion, indicating the presence of bottom-fishing funds, which supports the view that there is no need for excessive concern about the market's future [2]

Group 1 - The market has shown a slight upward movement with increased volume, indicating a challenging path ahead due to a high-volume resistance zone above [1] - The average stock price is performing stronger than the market index, with small and mid-cap stocks undergoing significant recovery [2] - The potential for a short-term pullback exists as the average stock price approaches its resistance line, which may lead to the formation of a new buying point [2] Group 2 - The market index is likely to face pressure in the 3330-3350 range, suggesting a possible consolidation phase after an upward movement [1] - The construction of a new platform around a 30-minute central point is anticipated for the market index due to the influence of heavyweight sectors [2] - The entrepreneurial board index is expected to have a different reaction, potentially not returning to the previous range, indicating a possible third buying point [2]

Group 1 - The market opened high and rose above 3300 points, indicating a critical moment for short-term trading [1][2] - The overall market is in a slight upward trend, with an average stock price recovery continuing, driven by the rotation of thematic stocks [1] - Some stocks have already recovered from previous declines, while others are still in the process of recovery [1] Group 2 - The market has reached a previous high point near the gap, and a significant upward movement is needed to avoid a potential double-top pattern [2] - If the market does not show a stronger upward trend tomorrow, it may indicate a short-term bearish outlook, especially if financial stocks do not push the index higher [2] - The index may face resistance around 3320 points, leading to potential downward fluctuations if not effectively surpassed [2]

Group 1 - The market showed a strong upward trend in early trading, with individual stocks performing better than indices, indicating a potential bullish sentiment [2] - The previous trading day's closing analysis suggested that the index needed to stabilize above 3300 for a stronger upward movement, with key resistance levels at 3317-3342 and support at 3280 [2] - The short-term technical outlook indicated that the market needed to stay above the critical level of 3287 to maintain a bullish stance, with fluctuations expected between the identified gaps [2] Group 2 - The afternoon outlook suggested that a closing above 3296 would be acceptable, while a close above 3306 would be considered good, and above 3316 would be strong, with a minimum requirement to close above 3286 [3] - The mid to long-term market dynamics indicated that May's weekly strong and weak dividing line was between 3280-3320, and the monthly dividing line was between 3300-3350 [3] - The market needed to remain above the 120-day moving average to maintain a bullish market state and above the 250-day moving average to avoid reverting to a bearish market [3]

截至4月30日，市场情绪指标数值上升至0.8，模型继续提示市场情绪缓和修复。自4月18日的最低点以来，市场情绪 已经连续8个交易日修复向上，模型观点偏多。 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪有修复，较上周明显发生变化的指标有主力买入力量指标和价量一致性指标，两个指 标分数都有提高。 自科创50成交占比指标快速下跌至下轨以下后，近两周科创50成交占比指标仍在持续下降。本周主力资金进一步从科 创板块流出，3个交易日累计净流出超过27.2亿人民币。除了看到主力资金本周流出科创板，主力资金本周在全A也依 旧呈现净流出的态势，但主力流出主力买入力量指标尚未有明显回落。 根据均线排列模型，截至2025/4/30，提示美容护理、公用事业、银行、石油石化等行业短期信号偏多，市场风格继 续偏向价值防御板块。多数其他行业信号偏空，其中房地产、商贸零售、建筑装饰等行业短期得分下降幅度较大。 当前模型整体继续提示大盘、价值风格占优，但成长、小盘风格短期有增强趋势。 1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪修复，模型观点偏多 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指 ...

Market Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has completed eight effective upward cycles as of April, indicating that the ninth and tenth cycles are potential turning points for significant price movements [1][3] - The weekly analysis shows that the recent rebound followed four effective adjustment cycles, with the target being the five-week moving average, which has been reached [1][3] - The mid-term turning point for the market indices is expected to be after mid-June, with a likelihood of adjustments and a formation of a larger mid-term bottom [3][4] Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has also completed eight effective cycles, with June and July marking the ninth and tenth cycles, respectively, which are potential turning points [4] - The weekly analysis indicates that the recent rebound is a result of four weeks of effective adjustments, with three to four more cycles needed before reaching a turning point [4] - The index is expected to primarily adjust in the coming weeks, forming a stage bottom [4][6] Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index suggests a high probability of a slight increase on Tuesday, potentially leading to a positive opening [6] - The current A-share market is characterized by structural trends in individual stocks, provided that there are no significant declines in the overall market [6]