⚫ 下游需求低于预期；产品价格下降风险 ⚫ 考虑到研发费用阶段性较高，调整 25、26 年归母净利润预期为 13.01、15.16 亿元 （原为 13.06、15.16 亿元），新增 27 年预期为 17.59 亿元，参考可比公司 25 年 43 倍 PE，给予目标价 39.99 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 积极开拓民用航空及低空产业，打造公司 下一增长点 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,780 | 5,072 | 5,884 | 6,816 | 7,888 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.5% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 15.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,212 | 1,357 | 1,533 | 1,789 | 2,077 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 16.1% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 47.79 CNY, based on a 27x PE for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.839 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.56%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 640 million CNY, down 14.78% [1][8]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a lower proportion of military products, changes in product structure, and rising raw material costs, leading to a gross margin decrease to 28.44% (down 7.12 percentage points) and a net margin decrease to 13.91% (down 5.88 percentage points) [8]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million and 300 million CNY, representing 0.14%-0.28% of the total shares, to enhance investor confidence and internal motivation [8]. - The defense sector is expected to recover, and new industries such as civil aviation and satellite internet present growth opportunities, indicating potential for a return to high-quality growth [8]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 23.778 billion CNY, 27.536 billion CNY, and 31.978 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 14.9%, 15.8%, and 16.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 3.740 billion CNY in 2025 to 5.101 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 11.5% and 17.5% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 36.2% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to be around 15.7% to 16.0% [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the general equipment industry or the specific company being analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The company is strategically positioning itself in the civil sector, focusing on electric vehicles, medical equipment, and civil aviation [17]. - In 2024, the production of electric vehicles in China is projected to reach 12.888 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.4%, while sales are expected to be 12.866 million units, with a growth of 35.5% [17]. - The company has introduced advanced machining centers tailored for the electric vehicle industry, emphasizing high efficiency and low energy consumption [17]. - The company is also expanding its product offerings in the medical sector, particularly for ergonomic implants, in response to the aging population, which is expected to constitute 22.0% of the total population by 2024 [17]. - The company has launched several high-end equipment models for the aviation sector, including five-axis machining centers designed for efficient processing of aircraft components [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Research Information - The research was conducted on the company Kede CNC, which operates in the general equipment industry, on February 27, 2025 [13]. 2. Detailed Research Institutions - The research involved institutions such as CITIC Securities and Renqiao (Beijing) Asset Management [14]. 3. Research Institution Proportion - The report does not provide specific data on the proportion of research institutions involved [15]. 4. Main Content Information - The company is actively developing products for humanoid robots, leveraging its control algorithms and servo drive technologies to meet the manufacturing needs of this sector [19]. - The company has developed a large thrust linear motor that enhances control precision and acceleration, suitable for manufacturing components like screws used in humanoid robots [19].