Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate strongly before May Day due to tight supply in the short - term, and have a strong upward expectation in the long - term. Starch prices will remain high in the short - term and have limited price adjustment space in the long - term, and it's advisable to short the far - month prices [3] - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's new crushing season, and domestic sugar fundamentals are stronger than foreign ones. In the long - term, raw sugar will weaken with Brazil's increased supply [6] - Cotton supply and demand is relatively loose this year due to high production in Xinjiang and poor demand. Attention should be paid to domestic favorable policies, trade war changes and macro risks [7] - Egg prices rose due to a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but now the downstream stocking is basically completed. The progress of capacity reduction has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of spot price weakness on culling sentiment [9] - Apple trading in the producing areas has improved slightly, the overall stocking atmosphere is okay, and the flowering situation in the producing areas is good. Weather conditions should be continuously monitored [11] - Pig prices are oscillating downward after the slowdown of second - fattening. The supply pressure is difficult to digest, and the overall idea is to short on rallies [11] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the price in Changchun increased by 30, the price in Weifang increased by 20, the basis decreased by 22, and the import profit increased by 48. For starch, the basis increased by 3 and the processing profit increased by 2 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and have an upward trend in the long - term. Starch is in a loss situation, with weak procurement willingness, high short - term prices and limited long - term price adjustment space [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the basis in Liuzhou increased by 49, the import profit from Thailand increased by 47, the import profit from Brazil increased by 47, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 97 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's new crushing season puts pressure on raw sugar. Domestically, the fundamentals are stronger, and imports are expected to increase after July. In the long - term, raw sugar will weaken with Brazil's increased supply [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 110, the import profit increased by 70, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 115 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton production in Xinjiang has reached a ten - year high, demand is poor, and the supply - demand is relatively loose this year. Attention should be paid to domestic policies, trade war and macro risks [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the basis increased by 56, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.19 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rose due to a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but now the downstream stocking is basically completed. The progress of capacity reduction has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of spot price weakness on culling sentiment [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the 1 - month basis increased by 69, the 5 - month basis decreased by 134, and the 10 - month basis increased by 32 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Apple trading in the producing areas has improved slightly, the overall stocking atmosphere is okay, and the flowering situation in the producing areas is good. Weather conditions should be continuously monitored [11] Pigs - **Price Data**: From April 24 to April 30, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, the price in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.05, the price in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05, the price in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 120 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are oscillating downward after the slowdown of second - fattening. The supply pressure is difficult to digest, and the overall idea is to short on rallies [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybean meal is expected to improve, with significant drops in spot prices and basis, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the low valuation and support from import costs, it is recommended to go long on contract 109 at low prices [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - Basis data for the soybean meal main contract in various regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) on April 28 are presented, along with historical basis data from 2019/20 to 2024/25 [3] - Basis data for rapeseed meal in Guangdong are also provided, including historical data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [3] Spread Data - Spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are shown, along with historical spread data from 2018/19 to 2024/25 [4] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2995, and the soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing margin data are presented [4] Inventory Data - Data on the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills, soybean inventory at Chinese ports, soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises are provided, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] 开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, customs clearance time has been extended in some areas, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in May and June, the planting area of new US soybeans is expected to shrink further, and recent rainfall in US soybean - growing areas may improve soil moisture but delay the sowing progress [4] - Demand side: Pig supply is expected to increase steadily before September, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased significantly recently, wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein, and the downstream trading and pick - up performance is poor [4][5] - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is at a very low level and is expected to gradually recover, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has decreased to a low level, with an expected improvement in restocking willingness [5]

Report Title - South China Glass and Soda Ash Data Weekly Report 20250426 [2] Core Views - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure due to weak demand and high mid - upstream inventory. The price may continue to be under pressure, and short - term fluctuations may increase. Variables such as ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement need to be tracked [3][4]. - For soda ash, although there will be more maintenance in May, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a long - term surplus. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. Demand has a slight improvement, but there is a risk of the photovoltaic industry returning to an over - supply situation [5][6]. Glass Analysis Supply - At the end of April, the daily melting volume of glass may slightly decline to 156,000 tons. Three production lines are planned to shut down at the end of April, and one new line was ignited in April [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 heavy boxes (+0.61%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.25%. The inventory days are 29.4 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The inventory structure shows that upstream factory warehouses are accumulating inventory while mid - stream is reducing inventory [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are: - 153 yuan for natural gas, + 145 yuan for coal - made gas, and - 38 yuan for petroleum coke. The increase in the price of imported petroleum coke in Hubei has pushed up costs by 80 - 100 yuan [3]. Demand - As of April 15, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory of raw glass is 11.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [3]. Strategy - Due to weak demand and high inventory, the glass price has dropped significantly. Future price trends depend on ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [4]. Soda Ash Analysis Supply - The weekly production is 755,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 17,800 tons), including 339,100 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 5,300 tons) and 416,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 12,500 tons). Maintenance is expected to increase in May [5]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.691 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,300 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 338,500 tons (a decrease of 44,700 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.0295 million tons, with a total de - stocking of 180,000 - 190,000 tons from March to April [5]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of double - ton soda ash by the combined soda process is + 255.5 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is 17.5 yuan/ton. Profits have improved week - on - week due to the decline in raw material prices [5]. Demand - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is increasing, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash inferred from float and photovoltaic glass has improved. However, the photovoltaic industry may return to an over - supply situation after the end of the rush - installation period [6]. Strategy - From May, maintenance is expected to increase, and supply disturbances will also increase. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. The overall supply - demand pattern remains in long - term surplus, and price fluctuations may increase [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, leading to a decline in futures prices despite resilient market conditions driven by limited production growth and strong global demand [1][2]. Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas stockpiles in the lower 48 states rose by 9 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended March 14, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 3 Bcf increase [3]. - Total natural gas stocks reached 1,707 Bcf, which is 624 Bcf (26.8%) below the 2024 level and 190 Bcf (10%) lower than the five-year average [4]. - Daily natural gas consumption fell to 104.3 Bcf from 110.1 Bcf the previous week, primarily due to lower residential and commercial usage caused by warm weather [5]. Price Dynamics - Natural gas prices fell by 3% to $3.98 per MMBtu following the larger-than-expected inventory injection, although prices remain elevated after recently hitting a two-year high of $4.491 [6][7]. - The market is experiencing upward pressure on prices due to a combination of cold weather, supply disruptions, and strong global demand, particularly from Europe and Asia [7][9]. Future Outlook - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas inventories will end the withdrawal season in March about 4% below the five-year average, which could support prices around $4/MMBtu in the near term [10]. Company Highlights - **Antero Resources (AR)**: A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, reporting 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in the most recent quarter, over 60% of which was natural gas. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AR's 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 1,381% year-over-year growth [12][13]. - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a significant presence in the Marcellus Shale, Coterra's expected earnings per share growth rate for the next three to five years is 15.5%, outperforming the industry average of 11.4% [13][14]. - **Gulfport Energy (GPOR)**: Focused on natural gas exploration and production, Gulfport has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPOR's 2025 earnings per share indicates a 62.2% year-over-year growth [15][16].

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