1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and market investment demand has weakened. The RB2601 contract may continue to trade within a range. Traders are advised to engage in short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control. Considering the rebound, it is advisable to buy put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price and Spread**: As of the close on November 21, the futures price of the main rebar contract was 3057 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (+10) [7] - **Production**: Rebar production increased to 207.96 million tons (+7.96), year - on - year decrease of 25.86 million tons [7] - **Demand**: Apparent demand rebounded to 230.79 million tons (+14.42), year - on - year decrease of 3.41 million tons [7] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar continued to decline to 553.34 million tons (-22.83), year - on - year increase of 108.23 million tons [7] - **Profit Margin**: The profit - making rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, there is a large divergence among Fed policymakers on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections has been launched, and the central bank has maintained the loan prime rates unchanged. Rebar production has stopped falling and rebounded, with capacity utilization rising to 45.59%, and EAF steel operating rate continuing to increase. Downstream demand is better than expected, apparent demand has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline. Iron ore prices are oscillating strongly, while coal and coke prices are weakening. Technically, the RB2601 contract is trading in a range of 3000 - 3100 [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first rose and then fell. The price of the RB2601 contract was stronger than that of the RB2605 contract, and the spread on the 21st was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On November 21, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,107 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 82,833 lots, an increase of 7,798 lots from the previous week [22] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 21, the spot quotation of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 21st was 193 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On November 21, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31] - **Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventory**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.699 billion tons, a decrease of 3.994 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.689 billion tons, a decrease of 4.723 billion tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 10.413 billion tons, a decrease of 4.845 billion tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.99 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 billion tons, an increase of 31.1 million tons [36] - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily coke output was 497,500 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. Coke inventory was 434,400 tons, an increase of 72,900 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 billion tons, a decrease of 335,600 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Crude Steel**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [44] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Production**: On November 21, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.3628 billion tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from last week and an increase of 480,000 tons from the same period last year. On November 20, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 2.0796 billion tons, an increase of 796,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 2.586 billion tons from the same period last year [47] - **Supply - Side - EAF Steel**: On November 20, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 45.59%, an increase of 1.74% from last week and a decrease of 5.67% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point and a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 percentage points [50] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Inventory**: On November 20, the in - plant inventory of rebar of 137 building - materials production enterprises was 1.5332 billion tons, a decrease of 710,000 tons from last week and an increase of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.0002 billion tons, a decrease of 1.573 billion tons from last week and an increase of 10.363 billion tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5334 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.283 billion tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.823 billion tons [54] - **Demand - Side**: From January to October 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the newly started floor area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 3.0% [57] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the rebound in both rebar production and demand, poor performance of raw materials, weakened cost support, and short - term pressure, it is advisable to consider buying put options on the rebound [60]

人民财讯11月19日电，据生态环境部消息，11月19日，中央第一生态环境保护督察组督察北京市动员会 在北京召开。至此，第三轮第五批10个中央生态环境保护督察组全部实现督察进驻。 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1217174 | -46346↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -68,884 | -9508↓ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -9 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions on Monday. Some steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans recently, and there are expectations of macro - level positive news to boost market confidence. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may fluctuate and strengthen, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the position volume was 1,263,520 lots, down 23,505 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 52,146 lots, up 7,583 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 150,567 tons, up 6,484 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 38 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, down 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.13%, down 1.15 percentage points. - The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, up 900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, down 200 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 82,900 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.3221 million vehicles, up 95,700 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on the 17th, with a term of 6 months (182 days). Considering the operation volume and maturity volume in November, this operation means that the central bank's outright reverse repurchase will be increased, with a cumulative net investment of 500 billion yuan. - From November to December, the automobile consumption promotion activity in Jiangsu will be intensified, and the subsidy standard will be significantly increased. For new cars with an invoice price of 400,000 yuan or more (including tax), the subsidy standard will be increased from 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant progress made in ecological environment protection in Guangdong, transforming polluted water bodies into healthy ecosystems, driven by the central government's inspection and rectification efforts [1] Group 1: Achievements in Ecological Protection - The Central Ecological Environment Protection Inspection has effectively addressed major ecological issues over the past decade, with a focus on problem-solving and strict enforcement [1] - As of June this year, 3,294 rectification tasks from the first round of inspections have been largely completed, and over 85% of the 2,164 tasks from the second round have been accomplished [1] - More than 90% of the 1,262 issues identified in the Yangtze and Yellow River warning films have been rectified, demonstrating the effectiveness of the inspection system [1] Group 2: New Regulations and Approaches - The newly issued "Regulations on Ecological Environment Protection Inspection Work" by the central government enhances the authority and clarity of inspection processes, emphasizing accountability and systematic rectification [2] - The inspection process has been streamlined to reduce the burden on local authorities, including minimizing document requests and on-site visits, thereby increasing efficiency [2] - The inspection team is being strengthened through the establishment of guidelines to prevent corruption and ensure disciplined conduct during inspections [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The Central Ecological Environment Protection Inspection will continue to implement the new regulations, balancing high-quality development with environmental protection [3] - There will be a focus on integrated inspections across river basins and provinces, ensuring a comprehensive approach to identifying and resolving ecological issues [3] - The initiative aims to contribute to the construction of a beautiful China, promoting harmony between humans and nature [3]

Core Points - The Central Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision System has completed two rounds of full coverage in its 10 years of establishment, with the third round already underway [1][3] - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, eight batches of central ecological environmental protection supervision have been organized, handling over 144,000 public complaints and exposing 177 typical cases [3] - The completion rate for the second round of supervision tasks exceeds 85%, with 3,294 rectification tasks from the first round and its follow-up basically completed as of June this year [3] Group 1 - The introduction of the Ecological Environment Protection Supervision Work Regulations in April this year has provided a legal basis for the supervision work, ensuring clearer positioning and stronger rectification efforts [3] - The supervision has addressed significant typical cases and resolved prominent ecological environment issues strongly reflected by the public [3] - The next steps involve strict implementation of the regulations to contribute to the construction of a beautiful China and promote harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [3]

Group 1 - The central ecological environment protection inspection system has completed two rounds of full coverage and is currently conducting the third round, with five batches to be completed by the end of this year [1] - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, eight batches of inspections have been organized, receiving over 144,000 public complaints and exposing 177 typical cases [1] - As of June this year, 3,294 rectification tasks from the first round of inspections have been basically completed, and the completion rate for 2,164 tasks from the second round exceeds 85% [1] Group 2 - The newly issued "Regulations on Ecological Environment Protection Inspection Work" in April provides a comprehensive framework for the inspection work, emphasizing accountability and enhancing the effectiveness of rectifications [2] - The central ecological environment protection inspection will strictly implement the regulations to contribute to the construction of a beautiful China and promote harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has established a comprehensive ecological environment zoning and control system, enhancing ecological governance effectiveness during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Ecological Governance - The central government has organized eight batches of ecological environment protection inspections since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, handling over 144,000 public complaints and exposing 177 typical cases [1] - A total of 209 responsibility investigation clues have been transferred [1] Regulatory Framework - The "Regulations on the Responsibility System for Ecological Environment Protection of Local Party and Government Leaders" has been issued to reinforce political responsibility for building a beautiful China [1] - A draft of the ecological environment code has been submitted for review by the National People's Congress Standing Committee [1] Monitoring and Management - More than 3.86 million fixed pollution sources have been included in a unified management system for pollutant discharge permits [1] - A major national scientific and technological project for comprehensive environmental governance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been implemented [1] - The country has established the world's largest and most comprehensive national ecological environment quality monitoring network [1] - Effective operation of the national ecological security and nuclear safety work coordination mechanism has been achieved [1]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the significant progress made in ecological environment protection over the past decade, emphasizing the effectiveness of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection. Group 1: Inspection Achievements - The Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection has been implemented for 10 years, completing two rounds of "full coverage" inspections and initiating the third round with four batches already conducted this year [1] - As of June this year, 3,294 rectification tasks from the first round of inspections and "return visits" have been basically completed, while the completion rate for the second round's 2,164 rectification tasks exceeds 85% [1] - Over 90% of the 1,262 issues disclosed in the Yangtze and Yellow River warning films have also been rectified [1] Group 2: Public Engagement and Outcomes - A total of 350,000 public complaints have been received and processed, with the majority either resolved or in the process of resolution, leading to significant recognition from the central government and public support [1] - The inspections have been characterized by a problem-oriented approach and a strict tone, resulting in the serious handling of several major typical cases and addressing prominent ecological and environmental issues raised by the public [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of ecological environment protection and the need for effective rectification of issues identified by the Central Ecological Environment Protection Inspection, highlighting the commitment to building a beautiful Suzhou [1][2]. Group 1: Ecological Environment Protection - The local government is actively addressing feedback from the Central Ecological Environment Protection Inspection, focusing on political responsibility and long-term solutions [1][2]. - Specific measures include improving soil conditions and conducting scientific reclamation in agricultural areas, as well as addressing noise pollution through community engagement and infrastructure improvements [1][2]. Group 2: Safety Production - The article discusses the importance of safety production in enterprises, with a focus on implementing strict safety protocols and regular equipment checks to ensure employee safety [1][2]. - The government aims to enhance safety production through the establishment of safety demonstration parks and enterprises, as well as strengthening the workforce involved in safety management [2].