1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From a long - term perspective, the century - long changes and Sino - US game have increased geopolitical risks, which, along with the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system, continuously push up the volatility center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies further consolidate the long - term bull market foundation of gold. [5][42] - In the medium - term, Trump's radical reforms increase the risks of US economic stagflation and global economic recession. Economic stimulus measures are needed, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate makes the RMB - denominated gold price more robust. The weak global economic outlook leads to a relatively weak silver and an increasing gold - silver ratio. [5][42] - In the short - term, after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut in mid - December 2024, gold started a new round of rise. In April, Trump's reciprocal tariff measures caused gold prices to break through $3,500 per ounce. Although there was a correction, the medium - term upward trend remains intact. [5][42] - The factors driving the rise of gold prices will continue to exist, though the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio also mean increased price volatility. Investors are advised to trade with a long - bias, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly short. Traders with a short - bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy. [5][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 4 Months' Precious Metals Trend Review - After the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut on December 18, 2024, gold prices started a new round of rise due to factors such as festival consumption expectations,避险需求, and the weakening of the US dollar and Treasury yields. In late January 2025, it returned to the medium - term upward channel since March 2024. [7] - In early April, Trump's tariff details caused a global financial market shock. Gold prices first dropped and then soared to $3,500 per ounce due to multiple 避险需求. After the mitigation of trade tensions, gold prices adjusted and then rebounded. [7] - As of 2025, London gold and silver rose 22.8% and 7.5% respectively. Shanghai gold and silver futures indices rose 24.1% and 7.6% respectively. Gold has a strong negative correlation with the US dollar and crude oil, a weakened positive correlation with silver, and a positive correlation with US Treasury real yields. [9] 3.2 Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 US Economic Short - term Contraction - Trump's domestic and foreign reforms disrupted the US economic and social order. In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, while the GDP deflator increased by 3.74%. [10] - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, higher than expected. The employment market showed some signs of weakness but remained generally stable. [12] - In March 2025, US inflation reached its lowest level since April 2021. However, tariff threats pushed up inflation expectations and depressed consumer confidence, posing an obstacle to the Fed's interest rate cut. [15][17] 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies in 2025 can be divided into four categories: border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. [18] - These policies have seriously disrupted the global economic and trade order. Mainstream institutions have downgraded their economic growth forecasts. The WTO and IMF have lowered their global economic growth expectations for 2025. [26] - The US government plans to conduct phased negotiations with 18 economies in the next two months. Economies that fail to reach an agreement will face reciprocal tariffs. [27] 3.2.3 The Fed Maintained Stability without Cutting Interest Rates - At the third FOMC meeting in 2025, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate and balance - sheet reduction unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Fed's interest rate policy in 2025 depends on the comprehensive impact of Trump's reforms and overall economic indicators. [28] - The Fed believes that the US economy is still expanding steadily. It needs more data to determine how to balance price stability and full employment. [30][32] - Since 2024, central banks around the world have had different monetary policy stances. The Fed has paused rate cuts, the ECB has cut rates, the BoJ has raised rates, and the PBOC has cut reserve requirements and interest rates. [32][33] 3.2.4 Weak Operation of the US Dollar Exchange Rate and Treasury Yields - The 10 - year US Treasury yield first rose and then fell in 2024 - 2025. In 2025, it is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5%. [34] - The US dollar index first rose and then adjusted significantly in 2024 - 2025. It is expected to fluctuate between 95 - 110 in 2025. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be generally weak with a core fluctuation range of 7.1 - 7.5 against the US dollar. [36][37] 3.2.5 Gold Supply, Demand, and Market Structure - In the spot market, the global gold and silver ETF holdings first declined and then stabilized. As of the end of April 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased, while the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased. [38] - In the futures market, the net long ratio of gold and silver funds shows that the gold long - position crowding has decreased, while the silver long - position crowding remains high. [38] - In Q1 2025, the global gold supply increased by 1% year - on - year, and the demand increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Investment demand increased significantly, while jewelry and central bank net purchases decreased. [40] 3.3 Precious Metals Price Outlook - The long - term and medium - term factors driving gold price increases will continue to exist. Although gold prices may be more volatile in the short - term, the medium - term upward trend remains good. [42][44] - Investors are advised to trade with a long - bias, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly short. Traders with a short - bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy. [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump 2.0's policies have severely disrupted the global political and economic order, bringing significant uncertainty and safe-haven demand to financial markets. After the emotional impact of the reciprocal tariffs in April subsides, the market will be more constrained by the restructuring of global economic and trade relations. Safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds will continue to be supported, while stocks and industrial metals are likely to experience a resistive decline. It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy for asset allocation in 2025, with the possibility of a more offensive approach in the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 1 - 4 Months Macro Market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" led to the strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, due to concerns about US stagflation and the attractiveness of Chinese and European assets, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed to overseas assets. In early April, Trump's reciprocal tariff details triggered a global financial market shock, followed by a recovery in market risk appetite due to negotiation signals [4][6]. 2. Macro Environment Review 2.1 China's Economy: Stable with Concerns - In early 2025, China's economy continued to recover steadily. In Q1 2025, real GDP and nominal GDP grew by 5.4% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. Consumption became a stronger driver, while investment and net export contributions changed. However, there are still issues such as over - supply, real - estate inventory pressure, and weak inflation [7][8]. 2.2 US Economy: Short - term Contraction - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis. Personal consumption and fixed investment were affected by Trump's policies, and net exports were a major drag. Employment showed some signs of weakness, and inflation expectations were high [19][22]. 2.3 China's Response to Uncertainty - China has introduced a series of policies, including accelerating service industry opening, implementing more active fiscal and monetary policies, and strengthening financial market support to deal with external uncertainties [28][30][31]. 2.4 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies include border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. These policies have severely disrupted global trade order, leading to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by international organizations [36][49]. 2.5 Fed's Decision to Maintain Rates - In May 2025, the Fed decided to maintain policy rates and balance - sheet reduction. The market expects rate cuts in 2025, but the Fed's decision depends on the overall economic situation, employment, and inflation [52]. 3. Asset Market Analysis - Chinese Treasury yields are expected to decline in 2025 but at a constrained rate. The US dollar index may fluctuate widely between 95 - 110, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to be weak. Chinese stocks may experience a resistive decline in Q2 and are likely to oscillate at a low level in 2025. Commodities are generally expected to be weak in 2025 [58][62][64]. 4. Medium - term Asset Allocation - It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy in 2025, with a focus on government bonds and gold in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, increase the allocation of blue - chip stocks and domestic - demand - dependent industrial metals. Currency and real estate should be under - allocated [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains favorable, and investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset for trading. However, silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. In the mid - term, before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand from the US economy and financial markets will continue to drive the gold price to move strongly, but the volatility of the gold price has also increased. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with a medium - sized position, and avoid chasing high or shorting [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Fed Chairman Powell remains on the sidelines regarding the economic slowdown and rising inflation expectations caused by tariff weaponization and rules out the possibility of a bailout. The WTO and UNCTAD have significantly lowered the forecasts for global economic growth and commodity trade in 2025. The safe - haven demand has pushed the London gold price to a new record of $3358 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 9999 reached a maximum of 795 yuan per gram. Profit - taking by long positions led to a slight weakening of the gold price after the rally in the Asian session on April 17. Trump's 2.0 new policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. This week, attention should be paid to US tariff policies, China's Q1 economic data, and the interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of upward trend under multiple factors. On February 24, 2025, London gold set a new record of $2956 per ounce, then had a weak correction in late February. In March, due to factors such as increased US economic recession risk, the Fed's slower pace of balance - sheet reduction, and rising geopolitical risks, London gold rose again and officially broke through the $3000 - per - ounce mark on March 17. Before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand will drive the gold price to move strongly, but the high price - to - earnings ratio and long positions also mean increased volatility [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts There are multiple charts in the report, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed will wait for more economic data before deciding on interest - rate adjustments. He also pointed out that the Fed may face a severe situation where tariffs push up inflation while economic growth and potential employment may weaken, and there is no "Fed put" [17]. - The WTO has significantly lowered the forecast for global commodity trade from steady growth to decline, expecting a 0.2% drop this year, down from the 3.0% growth forecast in October. The UNCTAD said that global economic growth may slow down to 2.3% this year [17]. - The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive interest - rate cuts, pausing for the first time. It also said that the uncertainty of US tariffs made it unable to issue a regular economic forecast [17]. - The Trump administration is considering punitive measures to prevent China's DeepSeek from purchasing US technology, and US chip manufacturers such as Intel and AMD are affected by export restrictions, with AMD expecting to bear up to $800 million in costs [18].