东京抗议民众岩上说，修订"安保三文件"完全背离了日本和平宪法。"在日本物价高涨的情况下， 政府还要动用老百姓的税金购买武器，这是强迫百姓为军工买单，图谋军备扩张，这将加剧地区紧张局 势，不利于和平。" 在此次日美首脑会谈中，双方再次强调强化同盟关系，共同推进"自由开放的印太构想"。特朗普明 确欢迎日方扩大采购美国防卫装备。高市早苗此前表示，将把原定2027年度实现的"防卫费占国内生产 总值2%"的目标提前至本年度完成，在2026年年底前修订《国家安全保障战略》等"安保三文件"。 新华社东京10月28日电（记者胡晓格 贾浩成）日本首相高市早苗同美国总统特朗普28日在东京举 行首次会谈。连日来，日本民众举行抗议集会和示威游行，表达对特朗普访日的强烈不满，抗议军备扩 张与关税武器化行径，反对日美强化军事同盟破坏地区稳定。 28日，来自日本各地的数十名示威者在首相官邸前手持"反对日美安保同盟"横幅，举着"反对日美 首脑会谈""不欢迎特朗普"的标语牌，齐声高呼"反对战争会谈""反对特朗普访日"等口号，遭到警方驱 赶。双方还发生推搡，场面一度混乱。 "反对特朗普访日实行委员会"成员伏见忠说，美国发动关税战，将关税武器化， ...

特朗普高调喊出，对中国商品加征100%关税，美国贸易代表，却随即改口说没打算打贸易战。 外界一头雾水，这到底是威胁还是真干？ 加税的口号喊得比以前更响，100%这个数字，也不是随便喊喊，是想在话语上再拔高一层。 特朗普再次盯上对华关税，不是偶然，是旧招复用。 他一直把关税当成一种政治工具，经济手段只是包装，背后想达到的目标，更多是制造对抗气氛、争取选票、压迫中方让步。 事情发生的时点很微妙，离一次重要的国内选举越来越近。 他需要一个能迅速带起情绪的议题。 喊中国、打贸易牌，是他过去用过且尝过甜头的策略。 这次喊出100%的关税，不管能不能落地，先占据舆论高地再说。 这不是第一次喊，也不会是最后一次。 在过去几年里，美国对中国商品加税从没彻底停止。 政策时紧时松，完全看他们内部的政治安排和利益算计。 这次加码的说法，看似猛烈，但其实也是惯用的老路。 用关税当武器，逼迫谈判桌上的对手让步，这在特朗普团队里已经变成了标准流程。 这次的100%，是明确的威胁，是要大面积加码，在之前的关税基础上叠加百个百分点，直接把贸易当战争来看。 这种操作，对于全球市场来说，是一种极大不确定。 一边高喊经济脱钩，一边又盼着企业不跑路 ...

Group 1: Technology and Innovation - China's technological innovation and industrial integration have accelerated, with the value added of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 42% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The "Three New" economy's contribution to GDP reached 18%, and the number of high-tech enterprises exceeded 500,000, marking an 83% increase since 2020 [2] - The government aims to enhance the innovation environment and capabilities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on the integration of education, technology, and talent development [2] Group 2: Market and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Commerce expressed hope that the European side would not weaponize tariffs and would work towards eliminating market barriers to foster fair competition [2] - The 138th Canton Fair introduced measures to support enterprises, including a 50% reduction in booth fees and free services for over 31,000 participating export companies [2] - The Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced adjustments to the contribution base for the 2025 housing provident fund, with the upper limit set at 35,811 yuan and the lower limit at 2,540 yuan [2] Group 3: Company Announcements - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, prompting the Shanghai Stock Exchange to issue warnings to investors regarding potential risks [2][7] - Ganfeng Lithium stated its ongoing development in the power battery sector, with solid-state batteries being tested in certain vehicle models and applications in well-known drone and eVTOL companies [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the trade agreement between the US and Japan is that Japan will impose a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% tariff, and Japan will invest $550 billion in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1][4] - Japan's acceptance of US passenger cars without additional testing is a significant aspect of the agreement, indicating a move towards easing trade barriers [1] - The agreement is seen as a compromise from Japan, which initially sought the removal of all tariffs, and the current tariff rates may hinder Japan's economic recovery amid inflation [3][4] Group 2 - The $550 billion investment from Japan is expected to support Japanese companies, but analysts warn that the US may benefit disproportionately, potentially leading to fiscal pressure on Japan [4] - The agreement may lead to increased competition for Japan's domestic agricultural sector due to the opening of markets to US agricultural products, which could widen the trade deficit [4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the new agreement could result in a 0.55% decline in Japan's GDP within a year, highlighting potential negative impacts on the Japanese economy [4]

类别 贵金属月报 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 国际贸易形势反复金价大幅波动 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 《宏观专题-20241015-选情胶着的 美国大选会否出现十月惊奇》 《宏观专题-20240930-非典型补库 周期与大类资产波动》 《贵金属专题-20240820-金价大涨 后的供需基本面变化》 《宏观专题-20240607-美国总统大 选对地缘政治和宏观市 ...

宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 类别 贵金属月报 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 对等关税威胁助推金价突破 3500 美元/盎司 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 月度报告 近期研究报告 《贵金属专题-20240820-金价大涨 后的供需基本面变化》 《宏观专题-20240607-美国总统大 选对地缘政治和宏观市场的影响》 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 《宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 《宏观专题-20241015-选情胶着的 美国大选会否出现十月惊 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump 2.0's policies have severely disrupted the global political and economic order, bringing significant uncertainty and safe-haven demand to financial markets. After the emotional impact of the reciprocal tariffs in April subsides, the market will be more constrained by the restructuring of global economic and trade relations. Safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds will continue to be supported, while stocks and industrial metals are likely to experience a resistive decline. It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy for asset allocation in 2025, with the possibility of a more offensive approach in the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 1 - 4 Months Macro Market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" led to the strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, due to concerns about US stagflation and the attractiveness of Chinese and European assets, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed to overseas assets. In early April, Trump's reciprocal tariff details triggered a global financial market shock, followed by a recovery in market risk appetite due to negotiation signals [4][6]. 2. Macro Environment Review 2.1 China's Economy: Stable with Concerns - In early 2025, China's economy continued to recover steadily. In Q1 2025, real GDP and nominal GDP grew by 5.4% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. Consumption became a stronger driver, while investment and net export contributions changed. However, there are still issues such as over - supply, real - estate inventory pressure, and weak inflation [7][8]. 2.2 US Economy: Short - term Contraction - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis. Personal consumption and fixed investment were affected by Trump's policies, and net exports were a major drag. Employment showed some signs of weakness, and inflation expectations were high [19][22]. 2.3 China's Response to Uncertainty - China has introduced a series of policies, including accelerating service industry opening, implementing more active fiscal and monetary policies, and strengthening financial market support to deal with external uncertainties [28][30][31]. 2.4 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies include border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. These policies have severely disrupted global trade order, leading to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by international organizations [36][49]. 2.5 Fed's Decision to Maintain Rates - In May 2025, the Fed decided to maintain policy rates and balance - sheet reduction. The market expects rate cuts in 2025, but the Fed's decision depends on the overall economic situation, employment, and inflation [52]. 3. Asset Market Analysis - Chinese Treasury yields are expected to decline in 2025 but at a constrained rate. The US dollar index may fluctuate widely between 95 - 110, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to be weak. Chinese stocks may experience a resistive decline in Q2 and are likely to oscillate at a low level in 2025. Commodities are generally expected to be weak in 2025 [58][62][64]. 4. Medium - term Asset Allocation - It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy in 2025, with a focus on government bonds and gold in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, increase the allocation of blue - chip stocks and domestic - demand - dependent industrial metals. Currency and real estate should be under - allocated [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains favorable, and investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset for trading. However, silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. In the mid - term, before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand from the US economy and financial markets will continue to drive the gold price to move strongly, but the volatility of the gold price has also increased. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with a medium - sized position, and avoid chasing high or shorting [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Fed Chairman Powell remains on the sidelines regarding the economic slowdown and rising inflation expectations caused by tariff weaponization and rules out the possibility of a bailout. The WTO and UNCTAD have significantly lowered the forecasts for global economic growth and commodity trade in 2025. The safe - haven demand has pushed the London gold price to a new record of $3358 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 9999 reached a maximum of 795 yuan per gram. Profit - taking by long positions led to a slight weakening of the gold price after the rally in the Asian session on April 17. Trump's 2.0 new policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. This week, attention should be paid to US tariff policies, China's Q1 economic data, and the interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of upward trend under multiple factors. On February 24, 2025, London gold set a new record of $2956 per ounce, then had a weak correction in late February. In March, due to factors such as increased US economic recession risk, the Fed's slower pace of balance - sheet reduction, and rising geopolitical risks, London gold rose again and officially broke through the $3000 - per - ounce mark on March 17. Before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand will drive the gold price to move strongly, but the high price - to - earnings ratio and long positions also mean increased volatility [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts There are multiple charts in the report, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed will wait for more economic data before deciding on interest - rate adjustments. He also pointed out that the Fed may face a severe situation where tariffs push up inflation while economic growth and potential employment may weaken, and there is no "Fed put" [17]. - The WTO has significantly lowered the forecast for global commodity trade from steady growth to decline, expecting a 0.2% drop this year, down from the 3.0% growth forecast in October. The UNCTAD said that global economic growth may slow down to 2.3% this year [17]. - The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive interest - rate cuts, pausing for the first time. It also said that the uncertainty of US tariffs made it unable to issue a regular economic forecast [17]. - The Trump administration is considering punitive measures to prevent China's DeepSeek from purchasing US technology, and US chip manufacturers such as Intel and AMD are affected by export restrictions, with AMD expecting to bear up to $800 million in costs [18].