国家卫生健康委办公厅、财政部办公厅近日印发《育儿补贴制度管理规范（试行）》，旨在进一步健全工作机制，规范服务流程，保障育儿补贴制度顺利实 施。国家卫生健康委人口家庭司有关负责人表示，育儿补贴制度的实施要依法依规接受监督检查，各级卫生健康部门和财政部门要建立健全资金监督检查机 制，明确对代理发放机构和工作人员的管理要求。对骗取、冒领补贴资金的，追回资金并追究有关责任。（新华财经） "十四五"时期我国科技创新能力稳步提升 "三新"经济增加值占GDP比重达18% 高新技术企业超50万家 商务部：希望欧方不将关税武器化消除市场壁垒 上交所：天普股份近期多次出现异常波动情形提请广大投资者审慎投资 科技部部长阴和俊18日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍，五年来，我国科技创新和产业创新加速融合。规上高技术制 造业增加值较"十三五"末增长42%；"三新"经济增加值占GDP比重达18%。企业研发投入占比超77%；高新技术企业超50万家，较2020年增加83%。"十五 五"时期，将发挥新型举国体制优势，推进教育科技人才一体发展，促进科技创新和产业创新深度融合，营造世界一流的创新环境，全面提升科技 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the trade agreement between the US and Japan is that Japan will impose a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% tariff, and Japan will invest $550 billion in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1][4] - Japan's acceptance of US passenger cars without additional testing is a significant aspect of the agreement, indicating a move towards easing trade barriers [1] - The agreement is seen as a compromise from Japan, which initially sought the removal of all tariffs, and the current tariff rates may hinder Japan's economic recovery amid inflation [3][4] Group 2 - The $550 billion investment from Japan is expected to support Japanese companies, but analysts warn that the US may benefit disproportionately, potentially leading to fiscal pressure on Japan [4] - The agreement may lead to increased competition for Japan's domestic agricultural sector due to the opening of markets to US agricultural products, which could widen the trade deficit [4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the new agreement could result in a 0.55% decline in Japan's GDP within a year, highlighting potential negative impacts on the Japanese economy [4]

宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 类别 贵金属月报 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 对等关税威胁助推金价突破 3500 美元/盎司 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 月度报告 近期研究报告 《贵金属专题-20240820-金价大涨 后的供需基本面变化》 《宏观专题-20240607-美国总统大 选对地缘政治和宏观市场的影响》 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 《宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 《宏观专题-20241015-选情胶着的 美国大选会否出现十月惊 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump 2.0's policies have severely disrupted the global political and economic order, bringing significant uncertainty and safe-haven demand to financial markets. After the emotional impact of the reciprocal tariffs in April subsides, the market will be more constrained by the restructuring of global economic and trade relations. Safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds will continue to be supported, while stocks and industrial metals are likely to experience a resistive decline. It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy for asset allocation in 2025, with the possibility of a more offensive approach in the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 1 - 4 Months Macro Market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" led to the strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, due to concerns about US stagflation and the attractiveness of Chinese and European assets, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed to overseas assets. In early April, Trump's reciprocal tariff details triggered a global financial market shock, followed by a recovery in market risk appetite due to negotiation signals [4][6]. 2. Macro Environment Review 2.1 China's Economy: Stable with Concerns - In early 2025, China's economy continued to recover steadily. In Q1 2025, real GDP and nominal GDP grew by 5.4% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. Consumption became a stronger driver, while investment and net export contributions changed. However, there are still issues such as over - supply, real - estate inventory pressure, and weak inflation [7][8]. 2.2 US Economy: Short - term Contraction - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis. Personal consumption and fixed investment were affected by Trump's policies, and net exports were a major drag. Employment showed some signs of weakness, and inflation expectations were high [19][22]. 2.3 China's Response to Uncertainty - China has introduced a series of policies, including accelerating service industry opening, implementing more active fiscal and monetary policies, and strengthening financial market support to deal with external uncertainties [28][30][31]. 2.4 Trump's Tariff Weaponization - Trump's tariff policies include border security tariffs, specific industry tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and China - specific tariffs. These policies have severely disrupted global trade order, leading to downward revisions of economic growth forecasts by international organizations [36][49]. 2.5 Fed's Decision to Maintain Rates - In May 2025, the Fed decided to maintain policy rates and balance - sheet reduction. The market expects rate cuts in 2025, but the Fed's decision depends on the overall economic situation, employment, and inflation [52]. 3. Asset Market Analysis - Chinese Treasury yields are expected to decline in 2025 but at a constrained rate. The US dollar index may fluctuate widely between 95 - 110, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to be weak. Chinese stocks may experience a resistive decline in Q2 and are likely to oscillate at a low level in 2025. Commodities are generally expected to be weak in 2025 [58][62][64]. 4. Medium - term Asset Allocation - It is recommended to adopt an overall defensive strategy in 2025, with a focus on government bonds and gold in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, increase the allocation of blue - chip stocks and domestic - demand - dependent industrial metals. Currency and real estate should be under - allocated [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains favorable, and investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset for trading. However, silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. In the mid - term, before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand from the US economy and financial markets will continue to drive the gold price to move strongly, but the volatility of the gold price has also increased. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with a medium - sized position, and avoid chasing high or shorting [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Fed Chairman Powell remains on the sidelines regarding the economic slowdown and rising inflation expectations caused by tariff weaponization and rules out the possibility of a bailout. The WTO and UNCTAD have significantly lowered the forecasts for global economic growth and commodity trade in 2025. The safe - haven demand has pushed the London gold price to a new record of $3358 per ounce, and the Shanghai Gold 9999 reached a maximum of 795 yuan per gram. Profit - taking by long positions led to a slight weakening of the gold price after the rally in the Asian session on April 17. Trump's 2.0 new policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. This week, attention should be paid to US tariff policies, China's Q1 economic data, and the interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of upward trend under multiple factors. On February 24, 2025, London gold set a new record of $2956 per ounce, then had a weak correction in late February. In March, due to factors such as increased US economic recession risk, the Fed's slower pace of balance - sheet reduction, and rising geopolitical risks, London gold rose again and officially broke through the $3000 - per - ounce mark on March 17. Before the positive factors are fully realized, the safe - haven demand will drive the gold price to move strongly, but the high price - to - earnings ratio and long positions also mean increased volatility [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts There are multiple charts in the report, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed will wait for more economic data before deciding on interest - rate adjustments. He also pointed out that the Fed may face a severe situation where tariffs push up inflation while economic growth and potential employment may weaken, and there is no "Fed put" [17]. - The WTO has significantly lowered the forecast for global commodity trade from steady growth to decline, expecting a 0.2% drop this year, down from the 3.0% growth forecast in October. The UNCTAD said that global economic growth may slow down to 2.3% this year [17]. - The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at 2.75% after seven consecutive interest - rate cuts, pausing for the first time. It also said that the uncertainty of US tariffs made it unable to issue a regular economic forecast [17]. - The Trump administration is considering punitive measures to prevent China's DeepSeek from purchasing US technology, and US chip manufacturers such as Intel and AMD are affected by export restrictions, with AMD expecting to bear up to $800 million in costs [18].