| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/02 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/26 | 2230 | 2210 | 2400 | 2360 | 52 | 10 254 | 2850 | 2930 | 330 | 17 | | 2025/08/27 | 2230 | 2210 | 2400 | 2360 | 46 | 10 264 | 2850 | 2900 | 334 | 15 | | 2025/08/28 | 2230 | 2230 | 2400 | 2370 | 45 | 0 291 | 2850 | 2900 | 312 | 15 | | 2025/08/29 | 2230 | 2220 | 2394 | 2370 | 29 | 15 276 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is expected to be under pressure and continue the weak oscillation pattern. In the long - term, focus on the selling enthusiasm of new - season corn in the production areas [4]. - **Starch**: Maintain a bearish view in both the short and long term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [5]. - **Cotton**: The price has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. The downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks [7]. - **Eggs**: The price rebounded slowly, with supply at a high level and demand insufficient. Pay attention to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [11]. - **Apples**: The new - season production may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Focus on the final production [15]. - **Pigs**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the price in Changchun remained 2230, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 10, and in Weifang by 6. The basis and other indicators also showed certain changes [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The corn auction had a light trading volume. In the short - term, the price is under pressure, and in the long - term, focus on the new - season supply. Starch prices are expected to be weak due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 10, and the basis, import profit, and other indicators changed accordingly [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar price is under pressure from Brazilian supply, and the domestic price is affected by imported sugar arrivals [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 170, and the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 46 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The cotton price has entered a consolidation phase, and the downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the egg prices in some production areas changed, and the basis decreased by 68 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The egg price rebounded slowly due to high supply and insufficient demand. Pay attention to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [11]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7300, and the basis changed significantly [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season production may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Focus on the final production [15]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, the prices in some production areas remained stable, and the basis increased by 35 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The pig price is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the market conditions of various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs on August 27, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Market Data - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable from August 20 - 26, while prices in Weifang decreased by 34. Starch prices in Heilongjiang remained stable, and those in Weifang decreased by 50. Corn trade profit decreased, and starch processing profit increased slightly [2] Core View - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. Starch prices will fluctuate with raw material prices, and high inventory will continue to pressure the price [3] - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in the production areas. Starch prices are expected to remain bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The base difference increased, and the import profit decreased slightly. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [5] Core View - Internationally, the peak sugar - pressing season in Brazil is putting pressure on sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and the arrival of imported sugar is putting pressure on the upper limit of the futures price [5] Group 4: Cotton Market Data - The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 1, and the import profit and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased [8] Core View - Cotton prices are in a shock phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the low point in April can be seen as the long - term bottom of cotton prices, and the downside space is limited [8] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - Egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, the base difference increased by 28, the price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.10 [11] Core View - Egg prices rebounded rapidly from the low level due to supply and demand in July, but decreased in early August due to insufficient demand. If the price rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be culled [11] Group 6: Apples Market Data - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory increased by 10, and the base differences for January, May, and October contracts changed to varying degrees [15][16] Core View - The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, the inventory is the lowest in the past five years, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - Pig prices in some production areas decreased slightly, and the base difference remained unchanged [16] Core View - There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point in the long - term, but the mid - term supply pressure still exists. There may be a short - term improvement in consumption, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated August 26, 2025 [3] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, in corn, prices in Changchun remained 2230, while in other regions like Weifang and Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed by 41, trade profit decreased by 20, and import profit decreased by 4. In starch, prices in Heilongjiang remained 2850, while in Weifang it decreased by 50. The basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 22 [4] Market Analysis - Short - term: New - season corn is about to be listed, market sentiment is cautious, and port spot prices are weakening, causing the futures price to decline. But due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp drop. Starch prices follow raw material price fluctuations, with high production, low downstream demand, and rising inventory, pressuring prices. - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline due to increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [5] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming had little change, the basis decreased by 18, and the import profit increased by 33. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 170 [6][24] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production increases. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar. Imported sugar is arriving at ports, and the processing sugar price cut is putting pressure on the futures [7][24] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 80, the price of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 1, the import profit and other data also changed. For cotton yarn, the price of Vietnamese yarn remained stable, the spot price increased by 20, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 59, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 64 [10] Market Analysis - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other regions decreased, the basis increased by 10, the price of white - feather broilers remained stable, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.20, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.01 [14] Market Analysis - In July, high temperatures reduced egg - laying rates, and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices. But due to sufficient stocks in food factories and reduced procurement, the Mid - Autumn Festival demand was weakened. In August, supply was high and demand was low, causing prices to fall. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7300.00, the national inventory decreased by 36.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 24.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 47.00. The basis for different contracts also changed [21][22] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest apparent inventory in five years and slightly slower de - stocking. The price is stable for now. Attention should be paid to the final yield determination [22] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From August 19 - 25, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other regions had minor changes, and the basis decreased by 70 [22] Market Analysis - There are policy expectations for a production - capacity turning point in the long - term, but medium - term supply pressure remains. Seasonally, there are factors supporting demand. The spot price rebounded at the weekend. There is an expectation of reduced supply at the end of the month, and consumption may improve with school - opening replenishment. The restart of state reserves is boosting market sentiment. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [22]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and lower support in the short - term, and are expected to decline under pressure in the long - term [2] - Starch prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] - International sugar prices are under pressure, and domestic sugar prices face upward pressure on the futures market [5] - Cotton prices have limited downward space and are in a wait - and - see state for demand verification [8] - Egg prices may trigger more old - hen culling if the rebound in late August is less than expected [13] - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in a off - season [16] - Pig prices have short - term weak fluctuations, and the medium - term supply is still under pressure, while the long - term has policy - related support [16] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the price in Jinzhou remained at 2210, in Weifang it decreased by 8 to 2446, and in Shekou it remained at 2380. The basis increased by 4 to 44, and the trade profit changed by - 5 and import profit changed by 2 [2] Market Analysis - In the short - term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in the production areas [2] - Starch prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 12 to 342, the import profit increased by 61, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 493 to 15752 [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Domestic sugar prices are affected by large - scale point - pricing of processing sugar mills and upcoming large - scale imports [5] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 15025, the import profit had no available data for change, and the sum of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 181 to 7523. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 23 to 466, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 5 to - 876 [8] Market Analysis - Cotton prices have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to demand - side changes [8] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the price in Hebei remained at 3.31, in Henan decreased by 0.05 to 3.05, and in Hubei decreased by 0.11 to 3.11. The basis decreased by 40 to 320 [12] Market Analysis - Egg prices rebounded from a low level in July but declined in early August due to insufficient demand. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7300. The basis for January decreased by 24 to - 704, for May decreased by 14 to - 692, and for October decreased by 85 to - 803 [15][16] Market Analysis - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in an off - season, and the market share is occupied by seasonal fruits [16] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From August 15 - 21, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.10 to 13.73, in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.10 to 14.05, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.10 to 13.87, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05 to 14.10, and in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.20 to 14.05. The basis decreased by 90 to - 35 [16] Market Analysis - Pig prices have short - term weak fluctuations, with medium - term supply pressure and long - term policy - related support. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn prices will continue to oscillate with an upper limit and a lower support in the short - term, and are expected to decline under pressure in the long - term. Starch prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] - The international sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar price has limited upward movement due to the approaching arrival of imported sugar. [5][6] - Cotton prices have entered an oscillatory phase, and their downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side. [9] - Egg prices may trigger more old chicken culling if the rebound in late August is less than expected. [14] - Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. [22] - Pig prices are under medium - term supply pressure, with long - term policy - related expectations. Short - term spot prices are weakly oscillating. [22] Group 3: Summary by Product Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while prices in other regions showed various changes. The basis, trade profit, and other indicators also changed. For starch, the processing profit increased by 3 [2] - **Market Analysis**: This week, 395,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 67,000 tons sold. In the short - term, corn prices will oscillate. In the long - term, they may decline. Starch prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and remain bearish in the long - term [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning decreased by 10, the basis decreased by 25, and the import profit decreased by 81. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 242 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar price is under pressure due to Brazil's high - pressure supply. The domestic sugar price has limited upward movement due to the approaching arrival of imported sugar [5][6] Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 45, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 141. The 32S spinning profit increased by 47 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices have entered an oscillatory phase. If there are no major macro - risk events, the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the demand side [9] Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.09, the basis decreased by 30, the price of yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.17 [14] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded rapidly in July but declined in early August due to supply and demand factors. If the rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be culled [14] Apples - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national inventory increased by 57,000 tons [21][22] - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low [22] Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 14 to 20, the price in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.15, and the basis increased by 125 [22] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are under medium - term supply pressure, with long - term policy - related expectations. Short - term spot prices are weakly oscillating [22]

Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on August 20, 2025, covering corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support in the short term, and are expected to decline under pressure in the medium to long term [3] - Starch prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term and remain bearish in the medium to long term [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market is expected to face upward pressure on the futures price [6] - Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [9] - Egg prices may trigger more old chicken eliminations if the rebound in late August is less than expected [13] - Apple prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [15] - Pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 7 - point increase in the basis, and a 1 - point decrease in import profit. Starch prices were stable, with a 31 - point increase in the basis and a 3 - point increase in processing profit [2] - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate, and starch prices will continue to be weakly volatile. In the medium to long term, corn prices are expected to decline under pressure, and starch prices remain bearish [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, sugar spot prices in some regions remained stable, with an 11 - point increase in the basis, a 16 - point decrease in import profit, and a 445 - point decrease in warehouse receipts [6] - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar market is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. The domestic market is expected to face upward pressure on the futures price due to the large - scale arrival of imported sugar [6] Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 points, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 19 points, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 106 points [9] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices have entered a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risk events, the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [9] Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, egg prices in some regions remained stable, the basis decreased by 30 points, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.01 points [13] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded rapidly from the low level in July but declined in early August due to supply and demand factors. If the price rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be eliminated [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory increased by 77,000 tons, and the basis for different contracts changed [14][15] - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at the lowest level in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, pig prices in some regions increased by 0.10 points, and the basis increased by 20 points [15] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to insufficient capacity reduction and supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in production areas [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, the starch market will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [9]. - Eggs: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. - Apples: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. - Pigs: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Weifang it increased by 40 yuan/ton. For starch, the prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate, and starch prices will be weakly fluctuating. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to decline, and a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, while in Kunming it decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 172 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, and the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased slightly. The spot price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, egg prices in various production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hebei and Liaoning. The basis decreased by 30 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 76,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, pig prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 25 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides market data and analysis for various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs on August 18, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Corn and Starch Market Data - This week, 395,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 67,000 tons sold, and the trading situation became sluggish. The price of starch was slightly reduced, and enterprises were still operating at a loss [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Starch prices will follow the raw material price fluctuations and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3] - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under pressure, and the starch price outlook remains bearish [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained mostly stable, the basis decreased by 5, and the import profit increased [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, the sugar price is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price has a smaller fluctuation range, and the futures price faces upward pressure [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 30, the import profit of M - grade US cotton was relatively stable, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 117 [9] Market Analysis - The cotton market has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [9] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning remained stable, while those in Shandong and Henan increased by 0.1. The basis increased by 50 [14] Market Analysis - In July, the egg price rebounded rapidly due to supply and demand factors. In early August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and weak demand, the egg price declined. Attention should be paid to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 on August 11 - 13 and then dropped to 7300 on August 14 - 15. The national inventory decreased by 44 [15][16] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while that in Shandong is expected to decrease by about 20%. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the pig prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, and the basis decreased by 95 [16] Market Analysis - The reduction of pig production capacity is insufficient, and there is still medium - term supply pressure. The futures price has a premium. The short - term spot price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report author: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable, while prices in Weifang decreased by 6 yuan. The basis decreased by 19 yuan, trade profit decreased by 5 yuan, and import profit increased by 41 yuan [3]. - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 6 yuan, and processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3]. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the market atmosphere has eased due to reserve auctions, and new - season corn is about to be listed, leading to a slight increase in market circulation and a slight decline in prices. In the long term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders, and the supply increase after the new - season corn is listed may put downward pressure on prices [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and the inventory remains high, so the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [4]. Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - The spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 29 yuan, and the import profit increased by 50 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 324 [7]. Core Views - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, but due to lower - than - expected yields, there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and the large - scale arrival of imported sugar will put pressure on the market [7]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - The price of 3128 cotton increased by 100 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 82. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan, and the import profit increased by 58 yuan. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 55 yuan [8]. Core Views - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [8]. Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - Egg prices in Hubei increased by 0.03 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05 yuan, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.10 yuan, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan [9]. Core Views - Egg prices rebounded in mid - July due to supply and demand factors, then corrected. From mid - August, demand is expected to pick up, but high inventory may limit the rebound height. Attention should be paid to disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations [9]. Group 6: Apples Data Summary - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreasing by 20,000 tons. The 1 - month basis decreased by 17 yuan, the 5 - month basis decreased by 20 yuan [10][11]. Core Views - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national output is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price is stable, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [11]. Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively. The basis increased by 235 yuan [11]. Core Views - The spot price rebounded over the weekend due to reduced supply in some areas, but demand has not improved significantly. There is still medium - term supply pressure, but there are also policy expectations in the long term. The futures market is driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [11].