| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/23 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | 10 | 390 | 2750 | 2800 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/19 | 2180 | 2290 | 2260 | 2440 | 9 | 0 | 366 | 2750 | 2820 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/20 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 | 2430 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 2750 | 2820 | 105 | -70 | | 2026/01/21 | 2180 | 2280 | 2260 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/22 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/01/15 2180 2290 2240 2450 -5 10 383 2750 2800 90 -70 2026/01/16 2180 2290 2240 2450 9 10 390 2750 2800 100 -70 2026/01/19 2180 2290 2260 2440 9 0 366 2750 2820 100 -70 2026/01/20 2180 2280 2260 2430 0 0 357 2750 2820 105 -70 2026/01/21 2180 2280 2260 2430 -3 0 326 2750 2820 104 -70 变化 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -31 0 0 -1 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：元旦过后，市场交投情绪依旧偏稳，政策性轮储继续补充市场玉米供应。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补 充，但是供应增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term, and long - term focus should be on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes [2] - For sugar, international production increase expectations need to be monitored, and in the domestic market, short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price, while long - term may look for out - of - quota import cost [6] - Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment [7] - Egg price trends depend on demand and chicken culling data, with different impacts on the second - quarter price [7] - Apple prices are mixed, with good - quality apples stable and lower - quality ones weakening, and the 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [11] - Pig prices may have short - term fluctuations, and futures price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction, with attention to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11] Group 3: Summary by Category Corn/Starch - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, corn base price in Changchun remained at 2160 - 2180, and starch base price in Heilongjiang was 2750. The corn base difference increased by 14, and the starch base difference increased by 10 [1] Sugar - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the spot price in Liuzhou remained at 5390. The base difference increased by 22, and the import profit decreased by 112. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 392 [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 100, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 11. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 397 [7] Eggs - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.09, 0.09, 0.10, 0.10, and 0.11 respectively. The base difference increased by 111 [7] Apples - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national inventory increased by 266, and the Shaanxi inventory increased by 234 [10][11] Pigs - From 2026/01/12 to 2026/01/16, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.10, 0.10, and 0.10 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.05. The base difference increased by 70 [11]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored [3]. - Starch prices are likely to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term. After the seasonal peak, inventory depletion will be the key factor for pricing [3]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the domestic market, short - term pricing depends on domestic sugar costs, while long - term pricing may move towards out - of - quota import costs [6]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and positive trade relations [9]. - For eggs, the key to future inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [13]. - Apple prices show strong high - quality goods and weak general - quality goods. The short - term futures may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [16]. - For pigs, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the short - term [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - unit increase in the蛇口 price. The basis increased by 3 units, trade profit by 10 units, and import profit by 35 units [2]. - Starch: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions were unchanged, and the basis increased by 11 units, while processing profit remained the same [2] Sugar - From January 5 - 9, spot prices in some regions were stable. The basis decreased by 9 units, and import profit increased by 27 units. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From January 5 - 9, the 3128 cotton price decreased by 100 units, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 250 units. The 32S spinning profit increased by 105 units [17]. Eggs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions increased slightly. The basis increased by 7 units, and the price of substitutes such as pigs increased by 0.08 units [13]. Apples - From January 5 - 9, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable. The national inventory decreased by 158,000 tons, and Shandong inventory decreased by 21,000 tons [15][16]. Pigs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions had minor fluctuations, and the basis remained unchanged [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The corn market is affected by the targeted auction policy in the short - term, with strong basis and trade inversion. After the New Year's Day, downstream seasonal restocking may drive up prices. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be focused on [2]. - The starch market has a slow de - stocking speed due to weak downstream restocking. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to strengthen slightly after the New Year's Day. Long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [2]. - The short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the medium - and long - term price will be affected by the global sugar market surplus and policies [3]. - The initial inventory of cotton is low, and demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, suitable for long - term long positions [4]. - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared, and the egg price in the second quarter may be boosted if there is a concentrated elimination of chickens before the Laba Festival [11]. - The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere recently. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, and the market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [17]. - After the New Year's Day, the short - term sentiment of the pig market is weak. There may be a supply - demand mismatch in January, and long - term improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [17]. Summaries by Commodities Corn/Starch - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis strengthened. Starch prices remained stable, and the basis increased slightly [1]. - **Trade and Profit**: Corn trade profit fluctuated between - 10 and 10, and the import profit increased from 206 to 287. Starch processing profit decreased from - 49 to - 79 [1]. Sugar - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the spot prices of sugar in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 46 [3]. - **Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts**: The import profit from Thailand and Brazil fluctuated, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1696 [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price and Profit**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of domestic cotton increased by 160, and the import profit of cotton and the spinning profit of 32S decreased [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The sum of warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 130 [4]. Eggs - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 1 [10]. - **Substitute Prices**: The prices of white - feather broilers increased by 0.03, yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and pigs increased by 0.37 [10]. Apples - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the prices of good - quality apples remained stable, and the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed significantly [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of January 1, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 797.14 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.18 million tons [17]. Pigs - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, pig prices in some production areas fluctuated, and the basis decreased by 415 [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2160, while prices in other regions fluctuated slightly, with a 10 increase in Shekou. The basis increased by 19, and trade profit and import profit increased by 10 and 33 respectively. [3] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2750 and 2800 respectively. The basis increased by 9, and processing profit remained unchanged. [3] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short term, the market sentiment is affected by the targeted auction policy, and the price in the southern port has回调. However, due to the strong price - holding intention of farmers in the producing areas, the supply of circulating grain is limited, and the spot price in the producing areas is firm. After the New Year's Day, the downstream may enter the seasonal restocking stage, which may drive up the corn price. In the long term, attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic auction policy. [4] - Starch: In the short term, due to the decline in downstream restocking enthusiasm, the de - stocking speed of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and the starch price is still weak. After the New Year's Day, supported by the year - end stocking season, the starch price is expected to rise slightly. In the long term, attention should be paid to the downstream consumption rhythm. [4] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, while the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis decreased by 5, and the Zhengzhou futures price increased by 170. [5][6] Market Analysis - In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures price can be determined by domestic sugar production cost and spot price. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the cost of duty - paid imports. Weather risks and policy changes should be monitored. [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - Cotton prices showed an upward trend, with a 40 increase in the 3128 variety. Import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. [21] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and the positive result of the Sino - US Fusan talk, the demand for cotton is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions. [9] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in most regions fluctuated slightly, with a 0.06 decrease in Hubei. The basis decreased by 34. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, while the prices of yellow - feather broilers and pigs increased slightly. [13] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens more quickly, it will accelerate the de - stocking process. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull a batch of 400 - day - old chickens, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter. [13] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - Apple prices in Shandong 80 first - and second - grade remained stable at 8900.00. The national inventory decreased by 71.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 37.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 67.00. [19][20] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. The price of high - quality apples is stable, while the price of ordinary and lower - quality apples has weakened. The sales in the consumer market are slow, and the de - stocking speed is lower than that of last year. Affected by competing fruits, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. [20] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in most regions increased, with a 0.05 increase in Henan Kaifeng, a 0.20 increase in Shandong Linyi, etc. The basis decreased by 25.00. [20] Market Analysis - The spot price of pigs increased significantly over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity de - stocking has improved the long - term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies. [20]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are currently weak due to the directional auction policy, but may rise after New Year's Day due to downstream seasonal restocking. In the medium to long term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [5] - Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly after New Year's Day supported by year - end stocking. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key [5] - Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and in the long term, if the global sugar surplus increases, prices may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve next year due to factors like expanding textile production, good profits and favorable tariff policies [10] - For eggs, the key is the egg - laying hen culling rhythm. Accelerated culling may benefit second - quarter egg prices [16] - Apple prices show a pattern of good quality goods being stable and lower - quality goods weakening. The market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] - Pig prices are rising due to factors such as supply reduction by farmers, second - round fattening, and New Year's Day stocking. Pay attention to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19] Group 3: Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while in other regions, there were changes such as a 30 increase in Jinzhou and a 6 decrease in Weifang. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [4] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are affected by the auction policy and downstream restocking. Starch prices are affected by downstream restocking enthusiasm and raw material costs [5] Group 4: Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 26, 2025, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning and Kunming showed an upward trend, and the basis and import profit also changed [6] - **Analysis**: Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and long - term prices depend on the global sugar supply situation [7] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, cotton price at 3128 index changed from 14895 to 15240, and other related data such as import profit and spinning profit also had fluctuations [20] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long - term investment [10] Group 6: Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, egg prices in different production areas changed, and the basis decreased by 105.00 [15] - **Analysis**: The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of egg - laying hens [16] Group 7: Apples - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00, and the basis for different months changed [18] - **Analysis**: The apple market is currently in a weak state with slow inventory removal, and the price pattern is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] Group 8: Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, pig prices in different production areas increased significantly, and the basis also increased [19] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are rising due to supply and demand factors, and attention should be paid to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19]

| | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/26 | | | | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | 淀粉 | | | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/19 | 2160 | 2240 | 2250 | 2410 | 48 | 20 | 228 | 2750 | 2800 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 25, 2025, and is from the agricultural products team of the research center [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 3. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the spot market shows a differentiated trend with port prices falling and产区 prices rising. The supply pressure may shift later due to middle - men hoarding. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and hoarded grains are released, prices may fall [3] - **Starch**: In the short - term, supported by seasonal consumption, prices are expected to be stable. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - **Cotton**: With low initial inventory offsetting most of the output increase, future demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, making it suitable for long - term investment [6] - **Eggs**: The存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The speed of存栏 decline depends on the chicken culling rate. Accelerated culling will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [8] - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the产区 is light, and the sales in the sales area are slow. The market may show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15] - **Pigs**: After the end of winter solstice stocking and southern curing, the slaughter pressure increases. There may be short - term supply - demand mismatches before the Spring Festival, and the long - term market improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [15] 4. Data Summary Corn/Starch | Product | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2160 | 2160 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2240 | 2230 | - 10 | | | Weifang | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | | | Shekou | 2410 | 2390 | - 20 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | [2] Sugar | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 5390 | 5420 | 30 | | Nanning | 5270 | 5340 | 70 | | Kunming | 5220 | 5240 | 20 | [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn | Product | Index | Value on 2025/12/18 | Value on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 3128 | 14750 | 14910 | 160 | | | Imported M - grade US cotton | 72.9 | | | | | CotlookA(FE) | 73.3 | | | | | Import profit | 2022 | | | | | Warehouse receipts + Forecast | 7568 | 8192 | 624 | | Cotton Yarn | Vietnamese yarn spot | 2.53 | 2.53 | 0 | | | Vietnamese yarn import profit | 542 | 893 | 351 | | | 32S spinning profit | - 492 | - 345 | 147 | [6] Eggs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 3.02 | 2.89 | - 0.13 | | Liaoning | 2.96 | 2.82 | - 0.14 | | Shandong | 3.05 | 2.80 | - 0.25 | | Henan | 3.00 | 2.80 | - 0.20 | | Hubei | 3.16 | 3.18 | 0.02 | [8] Apples | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 first and second - grade | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | | Shaanxi 70 general | 4 | 4 | 0 | [14] Pigs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 11.83 | 11.73 | - 0.1 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 11.70 | 11.60 | - 0.1 | | Shandong Linyi | 11.77 | 11.92 | 0.15 | | Anhui Hefei | 12.45 | 12.15 | - 0.3 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 12.40 | 12.20 | - 0.2 | [15]

| 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/17 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 24 | 30 251 | 2750 | 2800 | 193 | -14 | | 2025/12/18 | 2160 | 2240 | 2250 | 2410 | 50 | 20 243 | 2750 | 2800 | 206 | -14 | | 2025/12/19 | 2160 | 2240 | 2250 | 2410 | 48 | 20 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 203 | -14 | | 2025/12/22 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 38 | 30 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 208 | -14 | | 2025/12 ...