Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative journey of Eli Lilly's stock price, likening it to a "three-stage rocket" that has evolved from a "sugar-reducing injection" to a "metabolic revolution" [3]. Group 1: Historical Upward Cycle - The first stage of advancement is the breakthrough in Alzheimer's disease, which redefined valuation anchors. On May 3, 2023, Eli Lilly announced that its Alzheimer's drug Donanemab met its primary endpoint, significantly slowing cognitive decline in early patients, leading to a 6.7% stock price increase and a market cap growth of $25.6 billion in one day [4]. - The second stage is the commercial validation of metabolic drugs. On August 8, 2023, Eli Lilly's Q2 earnings report revealed that the sales of Tirzepatide exceeded $1 billion in a single quarter, with clinical data showing a 15.6 kg weight loss over 72 weeks, causing a 15.17% stock price surge and a market cap exceeding $500 billion [5]. - The third stage involves the synergy of capacity, payment, and pipeline, forming a "golden triangle." In 2024, Tirzepatide generated $1.766 billion in its first month, and Donanemab was approved in China, with a projected 60% capacity increase for GLP-1 drugs in 2025, leading to a 106% year-on-year net profit increase [6]. Group 2: Current Strengthening Logic - The first engine of change is the upgrade of the "disease radar," with Tirzepatide targeting new indications such as obstructive sleep apnea and heart failure, significantly reducing hospitalization risks [7][8]. - The second accelerator is the revolution in patient compliance, with the oral drug Orforglipron showing a 14.7% weight loss over 36 weeks, appealing to a broader user base compared to injectable options [9]. - The most critical factor is government insurance coverage, with the potential for Medicare to cover obesity drugs significantly increasing market penetration [10][11]. Group 3: Market Size Estimation - The potential of the weight loss drug market hinges on three core parameters: patient base, penetration rate, and annual treatment costs. The global patient base includes 905 million diabetes patients and 1.142 billion obese individuals, with additional new indications [13][14]. - The theoretical market size for diabetes and obesity drugs is estimated at approximately $1 trillion, with current penetration rates at only 2.11% for diabetes and 0.67% for obesity, indicating significant growth potential [16][17]. Group 4: Potential Over-Expectation Variables - The valuation system for GLP-1 drugs may face re-evaluation due to four key drivers: the promising results of Eli Lilly's dual-target drug Retatrutide, which showed a 24.2% weight loss in Phase II trials, potentially threatening the market share of Semaglutide [19]. - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are breaking into the global competitive landscape, with Innovent Biologics' dual-target drug application potentially capturing 20% of the domestic market [20]. - The cross-indication potential of Semaglutide shows a correlation with a 40%-70% reduction in Alzheimer's disease risk, indicating high market interest [21]. - The resolution of supply chain issues through significant capacity expansions by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk may lead to unexpected market penetration growth [22]. Group 5: Conclusion - The evolution of GLP-1 drugs from diabetes treatments to lifestyle management products reflects a significant shift in consumer demand and market valuation, with Eli Lilly's market cap soaring as these drugs become integral to weight management across demographics [24].