Core Viewpoint - Japan's June exports decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, falling short of the expected increase of 0.5%, and improving slightly from the previous value of -1.7% [1] Summary by Category - **Export Performance** - June exports showed a decline of 0.5% compared to the same month last year [1] - The actual performance was below market expectations, which anticipated a growth of 0.5% [1] - The previous month's export figure was a decline of 1.7%, indicating a slight improvement in the current month [1]

Group 1 - Canada's May exports reached 60.81 billion Canadian dollars, showing an increase from the previously revised figure of 60.44 billion Canadian dollars to 60.12 billion Canadian dollars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's exports decreased by 2.7% in May, compared to a previous decline of 2.4% [1] Group 1 - The export decline indicates a potential slowdown in trade activity for Australia [1] - The change in export figures may impact the overall economic outlook for the country [1]

Core Insights - New Zealand's exports in May reached 7.68 billion NZD, a decrease from the previously revised figure of 7.7 billion NZD from an initial 7.84 billion NZD [1] Summary by Category - **Export Performance** - The export value for May was 7.68 billion NZD, indicating a decline compared to the revised previous value of 7.7 billion NZD [1] - The initial figure for the previous month was reported at 7.84 billion NZD, which was subsequently adjusted downwards [1]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating conditions at historical mid-high levels[1] - Cement shipments are at historical low levels, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[1] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and building materials demand below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices have rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold prices increasing[3] - Domestic industrial products, except for some chemicals and asphalt, show weak performance, indicating slight domestic demand fatigue[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have turned negative year-on-year, with a 30% decrease compared to 2023 and a 4% decrease compared to 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes show divergence, with Beijing up 12% and Shanghai down 19% compared to 2024[4] Exports - High-frequency export data indicates a rebound in the third week of June, but June exports are expected to decline by around 3% year-on-year[5] Liquidity - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with R007 at 1.59% and DR007 at 1.49% as of June 20[4] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 1,082.8 billion yuan in recent weeks[4]

Core Viewpoint - The export performance in May is characterized as "overall resilience with slight slowdown," with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is lower than the first quarter's 5.7% and April's 8.1% [6][7][8] Export Performance - The export growth of 4.8% in May is still considered relatively low, and it is below the historical seasonal average for the month [6][8] - The decline in exports is primarily attributed to a significant drop in exports to the United States, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%, worsening from the previous month's decline of 21.0% [8][9] - There was a temporary "rush to export" observed in early May, but this trend weakened later in the month, likely due to uncertainty in expectations following tariff adjustments [9][10] Shipping Rates and Trade Dynamics - Despite the drop in export volumes, shipping rates to the U.S. have been rising, possibly due to a reallocation of shipping capacity to other routes and increased operational costs [10][11] - There is no significant evidence of a marked increase in third-party transshipment trade, as export growth rates to ASEAN and India have decreased compared to previous values [11][12] Export Market Structure - In May, ASEAN accounted for the largest share of China's exports at 18.5%, followed by the EU at 15.7%, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 9.1% [11][12] - The impact of tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, when exports to the U.S. constituted 19.2% of total exports [11][12] Product Structure Changes - The export of labor-intensive products showed a slight decline of 0.9%, while electronic products saw a growth of 3.9%, with integrated circuits performing particularly well [13] - The export growth of automobiles and ships rebounded significantly, with increases of 13.7% and 43.7% respectively, while rare earth exports fell sharply by 48% [13][14] Future Outlook - The current trend of a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. may stabilize, with recent shipping data indicating a potential rebound in early June [14] - The resilience of export data is expected to support the lower bound of the economic fundamentals, while the upper bound will depend on reassessing risk preferences and nominal GDP elasticity [14][15]

法国4月出口 492.56亿欧元，前值由525.51亿欧元修正为523.67亿欧元。 ...

加拿大4月出口 604.4亿加元，前值由699亿加元修正为677.6亿加元。 ...

澳大利亚4月出口 -2.4%，前值 7.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by export data and support from crude oil prices, but the MACD indicator suggests potential caution for future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Export data has positively influenced the palm oil market, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Crude oil prices are providing additional support to the palm oil market, enhancing its bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is revealing contrasting signals, indicating that while the market is currently strong, there may be underlying risks that could affect future price trends [1]