Core Viewpoint - The export performance in May is characterized as "overall resilience with slight slowdown," with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is lower than the first quarter's 5.7% and April's 8.1% [6][7][8] Export Performance - The export growth of 4.8% in May is still considered relatively low, and it is below the historical seasonal average for the month [6][8] - The decline in exports is primarily attributed to a significant drop in exports to the United States, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%, worsening from the previous month's decline of 21.0% [8][9] - There was a temporary "rush to export" observed in early May, but this trend weakened later in the month, likely due to uncertainty in expectations following tariff adjustments [9][10] Shipping Rates and Trade Dynamics - Despite the drop in export volumes, shipping rates to the U.S. have been rising, possibly due to a reallocation of shipping capacity to other routes and increased operational costs [10][11] - There is no significant evidence of a marked increase in third-party transshipment trade, as export growth rates to ASEAN and India have decreased compared to previous values [11][12] Export Market Structure - In May, ASEAN accounted for the largest share of China's exports at 18.5%, followed by the EU at 15.7%, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 9.1% [11][12] - The impact of tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, when exports to the U.S. constituted 19.2% of total exports [11][12] Product Structure Changes - The export of labor-intensive products showed a slight decline of 0.9%, while electronic products saw a growth of 3.9%, with integrated circuits performing particularly well [13] - The export growth of automobiles and ships rebounded significantly, with increases of 13.7% and 43.7% respectively, while rare earth exports fell sharply by 48% [13][14] Future Outlook - The current trend of a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. may stabilize, with recent shipping data indicating a potential rebound in early June [14] - The resilience of export data is expected to support the lower bound of the economic fundamentals, while the upper bound will depend on reassessing risk preferences and nominal GDP elasticity [14][15]

法国4月出口 492.56亿欧元，前值由525.51亿欧元修正为523.67亿欧元。 ...

加拿大4月出口 604.4亿加元，前值由699亿加元修正为677.6亿加元。 ...

澳大利亚4月出口 -2.4%，前值 7.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by export data and support from crude oil prices, but the MACD indicator suggests potential caution for future price movements [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Export data has positively influenced the palm oil market, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Crude oil prices are providing additional support to the palm oil market, enhancing its bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is revealing contrasting signals, indicating that while the market is currently strong, there may be underlying risks that could affect future price trends [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly related to China and the U.S. relations. Core Points and Arguments - The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively influenced market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite, which benefits equity markets and exchange rates but may pressure the bond market. The expected impact on 10-year and 30-year treasury yields is minimal, within 1 basis point [1][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy report for Q1 has reinterpreted the reasons for pausing treasury bond transactions in January, suggesting a potential resumption of trading in Q2, particularly during the peak issuance period in May, which could favor short- to medium-term interest rates [1][5]. - The view remains bullish on the bond market in the medium term, with April treasury futures filling gaps. May and June are seen as favorable periods for buying, with aggressive investors encouraged to enter early, while conservative investors should wait for market adjustments [1][7]. - Following the recent dual rate cuts, yields on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less have decreased, and treasury futures have risen, although 30-year treasury futures have shown limited movement. The impact on the stock and bond markets is considered limited compared to previous rate cuts [1][10][11]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell significantly by over 20%. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, indicating a need for further observation of long-term effects [1][13]. - The market has priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, with potential for a new easing cycle if definitive policies are announced in the coming days. Further cuts in reserve requirements are anticipated in the second half of the year [1][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations is expected to continue affecting the market, with a cautious short-term outlook for equity markets but a long-term optimistic view, particularly for the home appliance sector [2][19]. - The recent dual rate cuts have led to a significant impact on the bond market, particularly favoring short- to medium-term bonds, while the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure [3][8]. - The relationship between policy rates and 10-year treasury yields has shown signs of deviation from historical norms, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future interest rate movements [1][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism for the bond market in Q2, with a recommendation to remain vigilant regarding potential adjustments in investment strategies [1][19].

法国3月出口 525.51亿欧元，前值由496.7亿欧元修正为497.85亿欧元。 ...

加拿大3月出口 699亿加元，前值由701.1亿加元修正为700.4亿加元。 ...

澳大利亚3月出口 7.6%，前值 -3.6%。 ...