CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2360至2420区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差129，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差115，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性逢低买盘支撑，市场回归震荡等 待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持 低位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消 息面影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差78，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. It is currently in a short - term shock - strong pattern influenced by the uncertain final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The short - term trend is affected by news, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range. The fundamentals are neutral due to rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations and technical consolidation. The basis is bullish as the spot price is 2580 with a basis of 62, indicating a premium over the futures. The inventory is bullish as it decreased by 28% week - on - week to 1.8 tons and 25% year - on - year. The price is bearish as it is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is down. The main position is bearish as the main short positions decreased and funds flowed out [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2620, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable during this period, while the futures price fluctuated and declined, resulting in a slight expansion of the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed was at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. It is currently in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but the demand will gradually enter the off - season after the National Day, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiations [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal futures have returned to oscillation, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract shows a weak oscillation. The import volume of imported rapeseed remains stable in September, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory has a slight rebound. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuates slightly. The price of aquatic fish has a slight rebound, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquatic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the domestic aquatic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 3rd to 11th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3049 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 7.84 - 39.05 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was mainly 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) increased from 2580 yuan/ton on September 3rd to 2620 yuan/ton on September 11th. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28% compared with last week's 2.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 2.4 million tons in the same period last year [13][15][9]. 5. Position Data - The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts fluctuated from September 1st to 11th. For example, on September 1st, it was 6041 (-369 compared with the previous day), and on September 11th, it was 10383 (0 compared with the previous day) [16].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, the rapeseed meal is in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, but there are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling from Canada, which may cause it to rise and then fall [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate and decline, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillates weakly. The import volume of rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills decreases slightly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand for rapeseed meal will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in the China - Canada trade negotiation [9]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2580, with a basis of 61, indicating a premium over the futures. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the 2601 contract price difference oscillates weakly [9][19]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% from 25,500 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 28,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills rebounds from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly [9][24]. 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increase, and the funds flow in, showing a bearish signal [9].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains good expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to the reduction in EU output and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has uncertain impacts on global rapeseed production, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From August 21 to September 1, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated around 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively low. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated and declined, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract showed a weak oscillation. The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills rebounded from a low level, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - No specific content provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Based on multiple factors such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and main positions, the short - term trend of rapeseed meal is judged to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and follow - up developments need to be monitored [9].