Group 1: Economic Outlook - DWS forecasts US GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, citing increased uncertainty due to consumer spending cuts and delayed investments [1] - From the second half of 2025, tariffs are expected to raise US inflation to around 4% [1] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until second-round effects are ruled out, then gradually reduce rates to neutral [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - DWS recommends a diversified investment portfolio to navigate uncertain environments, maintaining a neutral stance on bond duration [1] - Focus on mid-term rates and high-quality euro credit in fixed income, while being optimistic about Japanese equities and neutral on other regions [1] - Favorable sectors include healthcare and communication services, with gold seen as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - Infrastructure and gold are expected to see new opportunities under the new normal of interest rates, with a deep integration across sectors anticipated by 2025 [1] - Power generation is projected to accelerate, reaching its highest level in over 20 years by 2029, with global capital focusing on grid upgrades and expansions [1] - Natural gas consumption is expected to rise, playing a key role in the development of renewable energy [1] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - De-dollarization is driving gold prices higher, with central banks strategically purchasing gold as international reserves shift away from the dollar [2] - Recent increases in gold prices coincide with a decrease in mining costs, providing mining companies with potential for recovery [2]

Core Viewpoints - Investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance when selecting funds, opting for those that align with their risk preferences, have experienced research teams, stable investment strategies, and robust risk control [2][3] - It is essential for investors to move beyond a single focus on returns and to construct diversified portfolios with funds that have different risk-return characteristics to mitigate risks during market volatility [2][3] - Emphasizing a long-term holding strategy can help investors avoid short-term timing and emotional decisions, leveraging time to smooth out market fluctuations and reduce the investor return gap [2][3] Summary by Sections Low Volatility Debt Products - Conservative mixed funds have an investor return gap of -0.86%, and fixed income funds have a gap of -0.62%, significantly better than the -2.65% gap of actively managed equity funds [3][23] - The lower investor return gap in debt products is attributed to their defensive nature and lower volatility, which helps reduce short-term trading impulses among investors [6][23] Passive Broad-based Products - Broad-based passive funds stand out with a positive investor return gap of 2.81%, particularly due to significant inflows from institutional investors during market lows, which did not participate in previous downturns [3][9] - The influx of funds during low market phases, especially from state-backed entities like Central Huijin, has contributed to the positive investor return gap in broad-based ETFs [9][10] Improving Investor Returns - To enhance investor returns, a collaborative ecosystem between demand and supply sides is necessary, focusing on rational decision-making and systematic fund selection frameworks [17][18] - Investors should clarify their risk preferences to ensure alignment with their investment choices, reducing decision-making errors due to risk mismatches [18] - Long lock-up periods in certain funds, such as pension target FOFs, have shown better investor return gaps, as they help mitigate frequent redemptions during market volatility [19][20]

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the disparity in investor returns across different types of funds in the Chinese public fund market, highlighting that conservative mixed and fixed-income funds exhibit lower negative investor return differentials compared to actively managed equity funds, which have significantly higher negative differentials [2][24]. - Passive broad-based funds, particularly ETFs, show a positive investor return differential of 2.81%, attributed to significant inflows from institutional investors during market lows, which contrasts sharply with the negative differentials of actively managed equity funds [2][7][24]. - The article emphasizes the importance of investors assessing their risk tolerance and adopting a diversified investment strategy to mitigate risks and enhance long-term returns [2][24][26]. Summary by Sections Investor Return Disparities - Conservative mixed funds have an investor return differential of -0.86%, while fixed-income funds show -0.62%, both significantly better than the -2.65% of actively managed equity funds [2][24]. - The lower return differentials in conservative mixed and fixed-income funds are linked to their lower volatility and defensive investment nature, which helps reduce short-term trading impulses among investors [4][24]. Performance of Passive Broad-Based Funds - Broad-based passive funds, especially ETFs, have attracted substantial institutional investment, particularly from state-backed entities like Central Huijin, during market lows, leading to a positive investor return differential [2][7][8]. - The influx of funds into ETFs during market lows has been a critical factor in achieving a positive return differential, as these funds did not participate in the preceding market downturns [7][8]. Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to carefully evaluate their risk tolerance and select funds that align with their risk preferences, focusing on those with experienced research teams and stable investment strategies [2][24]. - A diversified investment portfolio that includes funds with varying risk-return characteristics is recommended to enhance resilience against market volatility [2][24][26]. - Emphasizing a long-term holding strategy can help investors avoid the pitfalls of market timing and emotional decision-making, ultimately leading to better long-term asset appreciation [2][26].

2025摩根资产管理中国投资峰会举行 2025摩根资产管理中国投资峰会圆满举行 近日，第十二届摩根资产管理中国投资峰会在北京成功举行。作为摩根资产管理在中国最具影响力 的旗舰活动之一，本届峰会汇聚了摩根大通及摩根资产管理全球和本地数十位投资专家，以及学界和产 业界嘉宾，共同探讨全球宏观经济、国际视野下的中国股票和债券投资机会、全球资产配置趋势、ETF 发展、人工智能(AI)等热点话题，吸引了全国400多位机构投资者、理财顾问、合作伙伴齐聚一堂。 摩根资产管理中国总经理王琼慧在开场致辞中介绍，截至2024年末，摩根资管全球资产管理规模达 3.6万亿美元，2024年主动管理资金流入量位居全球资管行业第一；2025年是摩根资管深耕中国公募基 金行业的第21年，公司在融入全球平台的同时，持续加码本土投研能力建设，聚焦打造更高品质的产品 与服务，以主动管理创造客户价值。 (责任编辑：叶景) 放眼全球市场，摩根资产管理亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰认为，特朗普政府的政策主张或将会对 美国及全球经济产生深远影响，全球经济格局有望重塑。目前，特朗普政府选择执行更具挑战性的政策 (如关税)，而更有利的政策(如减税)或将在2026年 ...