瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面：美国部分积压数据发布时间确定，9月非农就业报告周四公布。 多晶硅方面，从供应端看，随着西南地区逐渐步入枯水期，电力供应紧张且成本大幅上升。四川、云南 等地的多晶硅生产企业面临较大成本压力，部分企业已计划降低开工率。新疆、内蒙古等西北地区凭借 丰富的煤炭资源，电力成本相对稳定，多晶硅产能运行平稳。需求端，下游电池片和组件市场需求疲 软，硅片企业库存压力增大，不得不通过减产来缓解供需矛盾。终端市场需求放缓，加上光伏产品价格 持续下跌，导致企业利润空间压缩，生产积极性受挫。 五矿期货表示，市场仍围绕收储及平台公司成立等方面博弈激烈，表现为盘面价格的快速下挫或拉升， 但当前多空双方尚缺乏足够驱动，期货价格仍在区间内宽幅震荡，往后则仍关注平台公司相关进展以及 产业链价格反馈情况。同时对行业相关传闻注意辨别真实性，运用仓位控制风险。 国投安信期货指出，光伏终端需求偏淡，多晶硅上下游11月同步减产，各环节出现挺价动作，但供需实 际边际改善有限；盘面核心受光伏政策预期及相关题材消息带动情绪反复，短期延续震荡格局。 11月17日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，多晶硅期货主力合约开盘 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The center of the industrial silicon market is expected to move upward, and the polysilicon market has entered a policy vacuum period, with the market trading based on supply - demand logic [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the industrial silicon Si2601 contract, the closing price is 9,290 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 365,749 lots, and the open interest is 281,503 lots. For the polysilicon PS2601 contract, the closing price is 53,720 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 218,786 lots, and the open interest is 125,974 lots [2] - **Basis Data**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +210 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is - 1720 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Data**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8850 yuan/ton, the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 52200 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit Data**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 1979.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 7.6 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.2 million tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 25.9 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost Data**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, the price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes is 12450 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Shuoqi industrial silicon production project in Zhengxiangbai Banner Mingantu Industrial Park has officially started construction. With a total investment of 500 million yuan, it is designed to produce 2.86 million tons of industrial silicon annually and is planned to be fully completed and put into use in 2026 [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Date - The report date is October 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 53,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The trading volume was 56,591 lots, and the open interest was 79,358 lots, with a net reduction of 435 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The expected production of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly production before the anti-involution policy (June). The current production level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The monthly expected production of silicon wafers and battery cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous rise of prices, but the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is policy support for the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stagnant, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors need to be treated with caution [4] Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,290 lots, a decrease of 140 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - From January to August, the cumulative new addition was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new addition in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5] - In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.64% compared to the previous month. From January to September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% [5] - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and the co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]

Report Information - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract declined. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 52,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The trading volume was 71,494 lots, and the open interest was 79,793 lots, with a net decrease of 10,118 lots. The spot price of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding material had a transaction price range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected output of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly output before the anti-involution policy (June). The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The expected monthly output of silicon wafers and solar cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous price increase. However, the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is a policy to support the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors should be treated with caution [4]. Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, an increase of 540 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - From January to August, the cumulative new installation was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new installation in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5]. - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the real growth rate after deducting price factors). On a month-on-month basis, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5]. - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [5]. - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market continues to fluctuate widely within the current range. Although the supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamentals, and potential policy benefits boost market sentiment. The far-month contracts are already at a premium, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance levels while being cautious about market rumors [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to fluctuate strongly. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 52,575 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.8%. The trading volume was 266,129 lots, and the open interest was 78,885 lots, a net decrease of 1,229 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The average spot price remained stable at 53,200 yuan/ton. The recent continuous rebound of the futures price is still at a discount to the average spot price. The basis convergence is mainly due to the recent meetings driving funds to continue to bet on policy improvements to support the stability of the spot price. The supply-demand relationship has not improved significantly, with insufficient production cuts on the supply side and weaker-than-expected end-user demand. The overall inventory in the spot market is still increasing, but policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamentals [4] 2. Market News - On October 16, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 8,130 lots, an increase of 80 lots from the previous trading day [5] - On October 16, there was a rumor that a polysilicon storage platform had been established, but a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polycrystalline silicon main contract price showed a weak and volatile trend. The PS2511 closed at 48,740 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.35%. The spot price remained stagnant, and there was a lack of potential policy benefits. The average price of N-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding materials was 51,800 yuan/ton, and the futures price was approaching the dense material price. Under the impact of macro risks, the futures price dropped to the bottom of the range again. Since late September, policy implementation focused on production control and new energy consumption standards, with no more aggressive short - term policies. The improvement in supply - demand was slow, and market expectations shifted. It was expected to continue the weak operation within the range after the discount, but overall showed a stalemate. The monthly production on the supply side was expected to remain at around 130,000 tons, while domestic terminal installations had declined rapidly in recent months, foreign demand remained stable, and the long - term demand weakness pressure might be transmitted upstream [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The polycrystalline silicon main contract price was weakly volatile. The PS2511 closed at 48,740 yuan/ton with a 2.35% decline, the trading volume was 246,976 lots, the holding volume was 87,665 lots, and the net reduction was 3,344 lots [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The spot price was stagnant, and policy potential benefits were insufficient. The average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon re - feeding materials was 51,800 yuan/ton, and the futures price was approaching the dense material price. After late - September, policy implementation was on production control and new energy consumption standards, with no short - term aggressive policies. Supply - demand improvement was slow, market expectations shifted. It was expected to continue weak operation within the range after discount but remain stalemated. The monthly supply was expected to be around 130,000 tons, domestic terminal installations declined rapidly, foreign demand was stable, and long - term demand weakness pressure might transmit upstream [4]. 3.2. Market News - On October 13th, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 7,900 lots, a decrease of 240 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - As of October 10th, the polycrystalline silicon inventory was 253,900 tons, a weekly increase of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 8.60% [5]. - Four departments planned to accelerate the establishment of recycling standards for retired photovoltaic and wind power equipment, improve battery disassembly and recycling technology, and explore the establishment of an energy - storage battery recycling system [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to open high and then decline, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies; polysilicon is also expected to open high and then decline [1] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,640 yuan/ton with a volume of 228,120 hands and a position of 174,398 hands; compared to previous periods, there are various changes in price, volume, and position [1] - PS2511 closing price is 51,360 yuan/ton, with a volume of 163,314 hands and a position of 87,359 hands, also showing different changes compared to previous periods [1] - There are differences in spreads and costs between near - month and continuous contracts for industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when compared to different benchmarks (e.g., +810 yuan/ton when compared to East China Si5530), and polysilicon also has corresponding spot premiums and discounts [1] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed material is 52,550 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to previous periods [1] - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) sector, prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also have their own price levels and changes [1] - For organic silicon and aluminum alloy, DMC price is 11,050 yuan/ton, ADC12 is 20,900 yuan/ton, with corresponding price changes [1] Profit - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2,629.5 yuan/ton and - 3,568 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.2 yuan/kg, and there are also profit data for DMC enterprises and recycled aluminum enterprises [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon has social, enterprise, industry, and futures warehouse - receipt inventories, with values of 54.3 million tons (social), 16.3 million tons (enterprise), 70.6 million tons (industry), and 25.5 million tons (futures warehouse - receipt), showing different changes compared to previous periods; polysilicon has a factory inventory of 22.6 million tons [1] Raw Material Cost - For industrial silicon raw materials, prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions have their own price levels and changes; for polysilicon, prices of N - type re - feed material, trichlorosilane, etc. also have corresponding data [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 29, the Yunnan Energy Bureau and the Yunnan Energy Regulatory Office jointly issued the "Implementation Rules for the Development and Construction Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Yunnan Province (Trial)", which has a five - year validity period. It stipulates the proportion of self - used electricity for different types of distributed photovoltaic projects [1][3]

人民财讯9月5日电，广期所多晶硅主力合约涨幅扩大至6%，现报55200元/吨。 （原标题：广期所多晶硅主力合约涨幅扩大至6%） ...

Report Date - The report date is September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a cautiously bullish and volatile trend. The spot price has risen significantly, leading the industry out of loss and involution. However, the policy side lacks the logic to stimulate further price increases, mainly relying on the implementation and matching of policy expectations. The improvement of the supply - demand relationship is slow, and breaking through the high - level resistance requires the implementation of more than expected policies [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued high - level volatility. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 362,759 lots, and the open interest was 149,210 lots, with a net increase of 3,355 lots [4] - **Future Outlook**: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock is 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 49,000 yuan/ton, up 2.30% week - on - week. In September, production will be restricted, which will support the upward movement of the spot price center. The monthly production is expected to be flat compared with the previous month at 145,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.8GW, higher than the expected production of solar cells. The downward pressure on terminal demand will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in July was only 11GW [4] 2. Market News - On September 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the polysilicon futures market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 2.01% to 52,435.0 yuan/ton as of August 18 [1] - As of August 15, the average market price for polysilicon (N-type dense material) was 47 yuan/kg, with manufacturing costs at approximately 39.7 yuan/kg, resulting in a net profit of about 7.3 yuan/kg [2] - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic polysilicon enterprises was reported at 39.5% in July, reflecting an increase of 4% compared to the previous month [2] Group 2 - According to Guoxin Futures, there has been a significant increase in weekly polysilicon production, particularly from leading enterprises in the southwest region, with potential for further increases in production rates from other companies [3] - CICC Futures noted that while there are some price adjustments in the component segment, the overall terminal demand remains weak, leading to limited transaction volumes [3] - The market is currently characterized by volatility driven by sentiment, with significant price fluctuations expected in the absence of sustained demand support [3]