减少，但目前来看依旧有下跌空间，若后续跌破49500以后，建议空单可以逐步减少，带情绪稳定后，可以 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-26 布局多头头寸，操作建议，暂时观望，或者布局看跌期权 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 50985 | -595 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2380 | 0 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 137478 | 677 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 42470 | -4 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the humanoid robot materials sector, driven by the successful conclusion of the first World Humanoid Robot Games, which showcased advancements in materials for humanoid robots [6][7] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the PEEK material market, projecting a domestic market size of 2.1 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.53% [7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various sectors, including agriculture, new materials, and chemicals, indicating robust growth and investment opportunities in these areas [5][9][17] Market Trends - The new materials sector index increased by 5.69%, with notable performances in industrial gases (up 8.51%) and electronic chemicals (up 6.77%) [6] - The report tracks weekly price changes in various materials, indicating stability in prices for biodegradable materials and vitamins, while some amino acids experienced slight declines [6] Company Performance - The report details the financial performance of Shengnong Development, which achieved a revenue of 8.856 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.22%, while net profit surged by 791.93% to 910 million yuan [11] - Jun Ding Da reported a revenue of 479 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.67%, with a significant contribution from the automotive sector [15] - Chenghe Technology's revenue reached 471 million yuan, marking a 13.77% increase, with a strong focus on overseas market expansion [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in PEEK material production and modification, such as Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Zhongyan Co., as well as functional protective casing manufacturers like Jun Ding Da [7] - It recommends maintaining a "Buy-B" rating for Shengnong Development, projecting net profits of 1.253 billion yuan for 2025 [11] - For Jun Ding Da, the report forecasts revenues of 1.055 billion yuan in 2025, with a strong emphasis on growth in the automotive sector [14]

Group 1 - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,400 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.42% [1] - The average transaction price for N-type granular silicon is 44,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [1] - Domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach 125,000 tons in August and around 140,000 tons in September, leading to an increase in inventory by over 50,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The current market for polysilicon is expected to stabilize in the short term, with prices nearing a temporary high point [2] - The average transaction prices for various silicon wafers remain stable, with 183N at 1.20 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece [2] - The demand for silicon wafers is weak, with limited acceptance of high prices by component manufacturers [2][3] Group 3 - The current situation indicates a potential downward trend in silicon wafer prices due to insufficient terminal demand and market observation [4] - The average transaction prices for battery cells remain stable, with 183N at 0.29 yuan/W, 210RN at 0.285 yuan/W, and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W [3] - The market for TOPCon components shows signs of weakening demand, with prices for new orders ranging from 0.65 yuan/W to 0.70 yuan/W [4]

中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周多晶硅N型复投料成交均价为4.72万元/吨，周环 比上涨0.21%，N型颗粒硅成交均价维持在4.43万元/吨。 根据InfoLink的观察，目前，硅片厂家挺价意愿较强，报价策略相对一致，加之国内"反内卷"政策氛 围，价格仍具备小幅上行的可能性。然而，部分电池厂因已具备一定库存，一旦硅片报价再次调升，下 游仍可能转向观望、甚至暂停提货。短期内，预计硅片价格延续区间震荡走势，长期价格仍将取决于上 游硅料供应变化、下游采购节奏与终端市场对价格反弹的接受度等多重因素的影响。 电池片方面，InfoLink数据显示，本周各尺寸均价皆持平上周，183N、210RN和210N分别为0.29元/W、 0.285元/W和0.285元/W。 硅业分会判断，尽管库存压力增大，但在当前非正常的市场环境下，供需并非核心定价因素。预计短期 内多晶硅市场主要靠成本支撑，随着一线企业主流订单签订完毕，成本略高的二线企业成交价或有小幅 上调空间，同时高企的库存压力将制约价格上行幅度，整体市场价格涨幅呈现逐步收窄的趋势。 硅片方面，本周，183N单晶硅片成交均价在1.2元/片，210RN单晶硅片成交 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 光伏行业周报（20250728-20250803） 8 月硅料排产预计环增，组件排产或小幅环降 ❑ 硅料：本周多晶硅价格涨幅收窄，8 月排产预计环增。据硅业分会，本周 N 型 复投料成交均价为 4.71 万元/吨，环比上涨 0.64%；N 型颗粒硅成交均价为 4.43 万元/吨，环比上涨 0.68%，价格涨幅有所收窄。据硅业分会，8 月国内多晶硅 产量在 12.5 万吨左右，环比增长约 16%，主要增量为丰水期复产产能爬产。 硅片：本周价格延续涨势。价格延续涨势主要系上游成本增加以及下游采购订 单支撑。开工方面，本周环比持平，两家一线企业开工率在 50%和 40%，一体 化企业开工率在 50%-80%之间，其余企业开工在 50%-80%之间。 电池片：海外政策变动叠加成本上升，近期价格持续上行。本周各尺寸电池片 成交价格持续上行，主要系硅片价格上涨、土耳其市场政策变动、出口退税取 消预期等因素共同作用，短期采购需求支撑价格上涨。 组件：价格处于博弈期，8 月排产预计小幅环降。上游硅料、硅片、电池片等 环节价格上涨，成本支撑加强，而下游企业出于收益率等因素考虑存观望情绪， 价格接受度有限 ...

期指：静待走稳 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4054.93 | ↓0.51 | | 3596.9 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4042.8 | ↓0.52 | -12.13 | 341.1 | 28026 | ↓9717 | 44554 | ↓76 | | IF2509 | 4029.6 | ↓0.52 | -25.33 | 690.2 | 56881 | ↓34566 | 151416 | ↓6186 | | IF2512 | 3997.2 | ↓0.48 | -57.7 ...

8月1日，A股震荡走低，截至上午收盘，上证指数午盘跌0.19%报3566.55点，深证成指跌0.15%，创业板指跌0.16%，北证50涨0.11%，科创50跌0.84%，中证 A500跌0.26%，A股半日成交1.01万亿元。 | 3566.55 -6.66 -0.19% | | | | | 上证指数 000001 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 11:30:03 交易中 | | | | | | 沪深市场核心指数 / ■ + | | | 全额 | | | 4252.56亿 | 关键出率 | | | | | | | | 315.35亿 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025Q | | | | | 3568.26 | 香和室 | 17.19 | 17.22 | 17.17 | | 醫賞 | | | 3581.75 | | | | | | | | | | 修武使 | 9.01 | 9.31 | 10.72 | | 最低 | | | 3563.98 | | | | | | 三次版出 15.5 | | 古屋地 | 1.41 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure among wafer manufacturers, leading to a slight price increase in polysilicon materials [1][2] Polysilicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon is 47,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon averages 44,300 yuan/ton, up 0.68% week-on-week [1] - From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production is 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [1] - The expected domestic polysilicon production for August is around 125,000 tons [1] - The integration of polysilicon production capacity is crucial for maintaining a balance in supply and demand, with a target capacity reduction to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [1] Silicon Wafer Market - The average price of silicon wafers has continued to rise, with 183RN single crystal wafers averaging 1.20 yuan/piece (up 9.09%), 210RN at 1.35 yuan/piece (up 8.00%), and 210N at 1.55 yuan/piece (up 7.64%) [2] - The increase in wafer prices is driven by rising raw material costs and an increase in downstream purchasing orders [2] Market Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic due to effective policy implementation and industry self-discipline, with strong price support from silicon wafer manufacturers [3] - The future price trends will depend on the downstream market's acceptance of price increases, as current price rises are based on expectations and short-term policy effects [3] - Battery cell prices have also increased, with 183N averaging 0.29 yuan/W and both 210RN and 210N at 0.285 yuan/W, reflecting a rise of 5.6% to 7.4% [3] Component Market - The demand for components is expected to recover slightly as domestic orders increase, with manufacturers responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments [4][5] - The current transaction prices for TOPCon components range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, although the transaction volume remains low [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 14.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [1] - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.65 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.1 billion kW, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 1504 hours [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Canadian Solar has established a silicon company to enhance its vertical integration and cost control in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The new company, Uratqi Haoxi Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., was registered on June 17 with a capital of 1 million yuan and is fully controlled by Canadian Solar [2] - Highview Solar has commenced mass production of its 2 GW BC module project, achieving an efficiency of 24.6% [3] - The BC modules utilize cells from Aiko Solar and feature proprietary packaging technology to enhance efficiency and durability [3] - Highview Solar plans to build an additional 1 GW BC module production line in Yibin, Sichuan, which has completed environmental assessment [3] Group 3: Investment Decisions - Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has decided to suspend further investment in its 10 GW N-type ultra-high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafer project due to market conditions [4][5] - The company has already invested approximately 340 million yuan into its subsidiary, Anhui Fuxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has established a production capacity of about 1.5 GW N-type wafers [5] - The decision to halt additional investment is based on price fluctuations in the silicon wafer industry and a temporary mismatch in overall photovoltaic market capacity [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]